In case you didn’t get enough of me talking about the Oscars yesterday – I mean, I only live-blogged for 10 hours – here’s a bit of a debriefing which can benefit from hindsight and the absence of heat of the moment blogging.
NPR‘s Linda Holmes called the show a “regrouping;” EW called it “comfort food;” I called it “a VERY good night.” If I had to sum it up in a word, it would be nice. It was very nice to have Billy Crystal back after a very strange couple of years experimenting with Oscar hosts, both good (Steve Martin, Ellen DeGeneres, Hugh Jackman), bad (Jon Stewart, Alec Baldwin, Anne Hathaway), and ugly (James Franco, Chris Rock). It was old-fashioned, just like most of the winners … but if something isn’t broken, why try to fix it? Here was his hysterical song-a-logue opener, per usual.
Maybe the show was just fun for me because the red carpet was SO dull. The only two women who were worth a desktop background were Rooney Mara and Jessica Chastain. Bravo, hope to see you all soon.
I mean, THIS was the highlight of the red carpet! Bizarre, bizarre…
As everyone knew, this was their movie:
And for all those who think “The Artist” will be a head-scratcher of a winner, at least it’s not forgettable and disposable like “The King’s Speech.” Curious future Academy-minded ponderers will just have to look beyond the title cards and at the context of its win. The collective psyche of Hollywood should be pretty apparent.
As for the acting winners, no one can really complain. Jean Dujardin was charming as can be, and a new generation got to see the greatest actress of our time take the Oscar stage to claim a prize she deserves. Octavia Spencer got all choked up, and it was beautiful. Christopher Plummer was dashing as ever, and it was very cool to see the oldest actor to ever win an Oscar deliver quite the speech. In my opinion, they got Supporting exactly as they should – and then just fell to the allure of a living legend and a Frenchman doing his best matinee idol. Nothing wrong with that.
I always take solace in knowing that many of the greatest movies ever were not Academy darlings. You can break down many films into “their” movies and “our” movies, and here are some of the greats from 2011 that now belong to us, the fans. They get “The Artist;” we get “Shame.”
Overall, as I more or less close the book on 2011, the Oscars were able to brighten a pretty dull year. They found some great work and rewarded it. While it might not have been my favorite, “The Artist” is a joyous and buoyant movie that reminds us of the artistry and emotion that brings us to the theater and to watching the Oscars every year.
(And in case any of you were wondering, here was my best of 2011 as of last night. There are still a few movies from last year I didn’t see that could make a few slots move.)
I’m feeling only six Best Picture nominees this year. (For those who don’t know about the new rules and regulations of the category, the Best Picture field is now an elastic number of nominees between five and ten. In order to be nominated for Best Picture, a movie needs to receive at least five percent of the number one votes.) The top five are very obvious.
The top three are rock solid locks. Woody Allen seems very inevitable given the widespread love for his movie and that the directors have nominated him six times before. The last slot could go any number of ways – Fincher like the DGA picked, Malick like every critic proclaimed from the rooftop, Spielberg if “War Horse” actually makes a strong showing, or maybe even Tate Taylor if they really love “The Help.”
The top three are locked in after getting nominations from the BFCA, SAG, and HFPA. Fassbender can’t be put in the same category since he missed with the SAG, the group with the most overlap with Academy voters, but he seems pretty safe given that the nomination would be a reward for his ubiquity just as much as his performance. In addition, physical commitment to a role always plays well with the actors branch; see nominations for James Franco in “
For the past 15 years, the SAG field has provided a clue to at least 4 of the 5 eventual nominees for Best Actress at the Oscars. The top four in the field – Davis, Streep, Williams, and Swinton – have all scored nominations from the BFCA, SAG, and HFPA. Then, the plot thickens. The way I see it, there are three actresses competing for that final slot. History says go with the SAG nominee, which is Glenn Close in “Albert Nobbs.” But Charlize Theron is also a threat for “Young Adult” after cracking the field for both the BFCA and HFPA.
At once, this is the most solid and the most fluctuating race this year. The frontrunner still is – and has been since June – Christopher Plummer for his incredible turn in “Beginners.” I don’t really think anyone else has a prayer because this is both a sentimental, Lifetime Achievement Oscar (think Morgan Freeman and Alan Arkin) and a consensus pick (think Tim Robbins and Javier Bardem). Of course, this assumes that he will steamroll to wins from the BFCA, SAG, and HFPA, a scenario which I think is incredibly likely.
BFCA/HFPA/SAG only agreed on Bejo, Spencer, and Chastain. This is the only category where, to my knowledge, getting all three of these nominations does not ensure a nomination. Last year, Mila Kunis missed for “Black Swan,” and Cameron Diaz missed in 2001 for “Vanilla Sky.” It happens, although I’d say that that was more of a character judgement disapproving of some of their other, non-Academy friendly projects. None of these actresses seem to be at risk for a similar fate.
Here is where I think the surprising “Bridesmaids” love – among the top movies feted by the AFI, SAG, HPFA, PGA, and WGA – will register. It’s a well-written movie where the comedy is so heavily in the dialogue and the plot; while Apatow movies have yet to show up here, there has to be a first time for everything.
“The Descendants” is about to lap the field here; barring a huge surge for “Moneyball” (which would make Aaron Sorkin a back-to-back winner), I don’t see anything standing between Alexander Payne and a second Academy Award win in this category.
If we thought 2010 was a year that people most needed cinema to make them feel good, 2011 looks to be even more so. That’s why it just seems right for a movie like ‘The Artist” to sweep in and take Best Picture. It’s got the happy factor, the B&W factor, the silent film factor, and the nostalgia factor all going for it. I have yet to see it, but even if I were somehow not to like it, I could still be content with this winning Best Picture because it would affirm the power of the prize. When they reward risky, out-of-the-box movies, Hollywood responds by thinking even more creatively. When they reward movies like “The King’s Speech,” studios start focus grouping the hell out of their contenders to perfectly calculate Oscar success.
Here’s where ballot manipulation will start to muddle the waters. Michael Hazanavicius, director of “The Artist,” is largely unknown, but Harvey Weinstein will have him making rounds on the circuit to cure lack of name recognition. He got Tom Hooper a win last year at the expense of widely renowned David Fincher. If “The Artist” appears headed for a sweep, it will have to take this category too.
Can the “he’s a leading man, not a supporting actor” logic prevail to give George Clooney another Oscar? I think that’s going to be the message from Fox Searchlight, and the starpower may be their only weapon to fend off the irresistible Jean Dujardin in “The Artist.” I suspect it may already be down to these two, and wouldn’t it be exciting if we had another showdown like Penn-Rourke in 2008?
My gut tells me that Streep will take the day here and win her first Oscar in 30 years. The role is baity enough, the time is right, we may have never appreciated Meryl more. But the fact that the film won’t open to audiences until next year makes it hard to gain audience support.
I’m counting on big love for “The Artist” to make the unknown Bérénice Bejo an Academy Award winner. Again, she has to battle unknown status, but her biggest challenger will likely be another unknown, Octavia Spencer in “The Help.” Since “The Artist” is much more likely to take home the big prize, I think Bejo is more likely to ride on her film’s coattails to victory. I’d hate to demean her with the term tack-on, but think Jennifer Connelly winning for “A Beautiful Mind” and Catherine Zeta-Jones winning for “Chicago.” To justify Best Picture, maybe voters will decide it needs an acting win as well.
It’s really a shame that even with the number of really impressive original screenplays this year, the Academy will likely settle for standard fare. I’m still counting on golden boy Woody Allen to pull through here, but if “The Artist” is poised for a sweep, I don’t see how it can not take an award for its writing. Only three films in the past decade have taken Best Picture without a win in the Screenplay category.
Scribe Alexander Payne is an Academy darling, winner in 2004 for his adaptation of “Sideways” as well as nominee in 1999 for his work on the script for “Election.” I think until otherwise informed, it’s not smart to bet against him.
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