6:42 P.M. Got the epiphany to live blog the Oscars a few moments ago.  Watching the red carpet arrivals on E! while I wait for the show to start.  Basically, I really want to hang out with Gabourey Sidibe because she is awesome.  Keep checking back for more updates!

7:01 P.M. Blahhh, I thought the actual show started now!  Too bad it’s just another 30 minutes of red carpet…

7:30 P.M. It’s 7:30, now start the show!  I don’t want to see a Sketchers ad!

7:31 P.M. Interesting display of the leading actor/actress nominees…also kind of awkward.  Love Carey Mulligan and Gabourey though.

7:33 P.M. What awards show hasn’t NPH been on?  This is kind of a random opening…I want Alec and Steve.

7:36 P.M. I’m already digging the duo.  No more solo hosts, please.

7:41 P.M. Why on earth is Kathryn Bigelow sitting right in front of James Cameron?

7:43 P.M. Alec and Steve = my new heroes for poking fun at Taylor Lautner and Zac Efron.

7:48 P.M. CHRISTOPH WALTZ! HECK YES!

7:49 P.M. I love Waltz’s “BINGO” reference.  What a humble speech.

7:52 P.M. They usually do the Best Picture nominees in alphabetical order, so if “District 9″ is next, then “Avatar” won Best Picture.  I can’t stand how the producers don’t think we realize this.

7:57 P.M. This animated character thing is SO money.

8:00 P.M. Yayyyyyy “Up!”

8:04 P.M. Good win for “The Weary Kind” … Oscars proceeding without surprises.

8:06 P.M. Can I change my ballot now?  ”District 9″ just got presented, so “Avatar” has won.

8:15 P.M. Best Original Screenplay goes to … “The Hurt Locker.”  Beginning of a steamroller?

8:18 P.M. Likin’ the John Hughes tribute.  Some good laughs here.

8:24 P.M. Oh boy … scratch that “Avatar” theory.  They are showing “Up,” which I’m secretly hoping wins Best Picture.

8:32 P.M. And there goes my perfect ballot.  Thanks, “Logorama.”

8:38 P.M. How much better can Ben Stiller get?  After Joaquin Phoenix last year, I thought he was hilarious.  I’m literally dying at him in Na’vi makeup.  James Cameron looks so uncomfortable…

8:50 P.M. NO! “Up in the Air” just got robbed!  But happy for “Precious” too, I guess.

8:52 P.M. If “Up in the Air” doesn’t win an Oscar…

8:58 P.M. Why are they giving away the best parts of “Up in the Air” now?

9:01 P.M. Hey, Mo’Nique just proved that my “Importance of the Speech” article was right!  And what a deserved standing ovation for the best performance of the year.

9:02 P.M. Are they presenting the Best Picture nominees in the order in which they were voted?  Or am I just reading too much into this?

9:07 P.M. Wow, a win for “Avatar” for Best Production Design?  I guess they really do accept the digital filmmaking …

9:09 P.M. What is with the weird rotating set piece behind the presenters?

9:12 P.M. “Precious” has 6 nominations, Charlize.

9:21 P.M. They did NOT just show “New Moon” in the horror sequence…

9:22 P.M. Anna Kendrick, get off Zac Efron’s arm and marry me.

9:23 P.M. Thank you, Morgan Freeman, for explaining sound to me!  I love your voice.

9:25 P.M. And the first “Avatar”-”Hurt Locker” face off goes to … “The Hurt Locker.”

9:27 P.M. Make that the first two* faceoffs…

9:30 P.M. All of a sudden, I really want to watch “Inglourious Basterds.”  Kudos to the person who edited the clip for utilizing the amazing soundtrack.

9:36 P.M. And now “Avatar” takes one from “The Hurt Locker” with cinematography.

9:41 P.M. I miss Natasha Richardson.

9:47 P.M. These street dancers are interesting … I much prefer last year’s simple and classy Best Score presentation.

9:52 P.M. YESSSSSSSSS! “UP” WINS … very deserving Best Score win.

9:56 P.M. Wait … “Avatar” for Best Visual Effects?  That’s shocking … NOW we are tied at 3.

9:58 P.M. Remind me why “Up in the Air” isn’t going to win Best Picture…

10:01 P.M. Only 29 minutes left in the show … this is when my heart starts pumping like crazy.

10:04 P.M. A deserved win for “The Cove.”  Bravo, Academy.  Bravo.

10:06 P.M. Where are Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin?  And why is Tyler Perry presenting editing (actually, this isn’t such a big deal)?

10:07 P.M. And the Oscar goes to “The Hurt Locker” … that makes 4.

10:09 P.M. “The Hurt Locker” coming on now means that “Avatar” will be presented last … am I reading too much into it?

10:15 P.M. What’s with these lamps behind Quentin?

10:20 P.M. Four awards to go, ten minutes scheduled … we are definitely running over.

10:25 P.M. I thought they had gotten rid of this awkward presentation for the acting categories … guess not.

10:32 P.M. Oh, and now we get Kate Winslet.

10:33 P.M. I’m happy for Jeff Bridges.  Almost 40 years from nomination to win. Wow.

10:48 P.M. What the heck did Sean Penn just say?

10:49 P.M. Not my personal choice, but I like Sandra Bullock’s attitude.

10:52 P.M. It’s going to be really awkward for Barbra Streisand if Kathryn Bigelow doesn’t win … melted butter, if you will.

10:55 P.M. We have just seen history.  CONGRATULATIONS KATHRYN BIGELOW!

10:58 P.M. BEST PICTURE AHHHHH!!!!!

10:58 P.M. Oh, wow, that was quick.  Go “The Hurt Locker!”

11:04 P.M. Why do I hear “E.T.,” “Chariots of Fire,” and the musical “Oklahoma” in the end credits for the Oscars?

11:07 P.M. Why are the rules being presented at the very end of the broadcast.

11:08 P.M. Well, that’s it, folks.  ”The Hurt Locker” is the big winner with six, but “Avatar” took home three, and “Precious,” “Crazy Heart,” and “Up” each won two.  Nothing for “Up in the Air.”  It’s my movie now!

But the change isn’t just limited to the winners; tonight, the very way that we look at the Oscars could change.  If Best Picture goes to “Avatar,” the Academy will have shown its support for 3D, motion capture, and box office receipts.  If “The Hurt Locker” wins, it reaffirms the Academy’s value of powerful, classic filmmaking.  ”Avatar” would be the highest grossing Best Picture winner ever; “The Hurt Locker” would be the lowest.

The media has enjoyed calling the race “David vs. Goliath,” but I’m not sure that’s what I would call it.  It is Goliath vs. Goliath, two very big movies in their own right and their own distinctive way.  The Oscars have always been about the movies, not the money (as much as we think – or know – that it plays a part), and both of these movies are fantastic pieces of filmmaking.

In most of my conversations involving “Avatar” this year, people have said, “I loved the movie, but I don’t think it should win Best Picture.”  To all of those people, I give you this message: we have been worked into this notion of what Best Picture should be due in large part to the similarities of the recent winners.  This year could be about redefining how we see Best Picture forever, and I’ve now prepared myself for it.  There are much worse movies than “Avatar” that could have led the charge.  And eventually, there will be a 3-D winner; there will be a motion-capture winner; there will be a sci-fi winner.  Giving Best Picture to “Avatar” could inspire some great filmmakers to try their hand at the medium, and cinema would truly be raised to new levels.

I’ve talked to some people who haven’t even heard of “The Hurt Locker.”  It’s not the kind of mainstream, popcorn movie that attracts a lot of people without hearing that it has been nominated for nine Oscars.  But it’s the kind of movie that people are happy to discover, and the awards have led many people to watch it who probably wouldn’t have before.  If those people didn’t care to rent the movie, they’ll see it’s win as typical Academy pretentiousness.  To them, I say that sometimes, you have to look past the multiplex to find the best movies.  A win for “The Hurt Locker” would probably leave Best Picture at the status quo, and plenty of people are fine with keeping their preconceived notions of the prize.

So, I hope everyone can enjoy the show whether or not your movie wins.  But remember this: an Oscar win makes it their movie.  Sometimes, if the Oscars don’t reward the movie you like, it becomes your movie.

I’m still sticking by my conviction that “Up in the Air” was the best movie of 2009, but I doubt that it will take home Best Picture.  I’m getting a feeling in my gut that “Avatar” will win, but my prediction is still “The Hurt Locker.”

But just remember – change isn’t always a bad thing.  It’s their decision, not ours, and it’s best not to fight it.  Accept it.  Enjoy it.

Nevertheless, please enjoy this deeper look at the performances that got these actors here.

Jeff Bridges in “Crazy Heart”

IN MY OWN WORDS: “The little things that help to turn Bridges into this character aren’t very obvious, yet I never felt like I was watching Jeff Bridges.”

He’s here because … he is an industry veteran with a lot of respect, and his four winless trips to the Oscars simply aren’t enough to honor such a great actor.

George Clooney in “Up in the Air”

IN MY OWN WORDS: “George Clooney remains the best in the business at playing visibly collected while emotionally perturbed beneath the surface.”

He’s here because … he’s an Academy favorite who is as good as he’s ever been in a beautifully nuanced performance.

Colin Firth in “A Single Man”

IN MY OWN WORDS: “Firth keeps the grief bubbling under the surface for most of the movie, and he makes George’s journey even more heart-rending with his subdued misery.”

He’s here because … he is immensely likable, and he finally gives a performance that can turn good feelings into awards attention.

Morgan Freeman in “Invictus”

IN MY OWN WORDS: “Morgan Freeman is remarkable as Mandela, and it is a performance that reminds us why he has such a revered status among actors.”

He’s here because … it’s Morgan Freeman playing Nelson Mandela – a legend playing a legend.

Jeremy Renner in “The Hurt Locker”

IN MY OWN WORDS: “Renner gives an absolute tour de force performance as James; he strips James down until he is emotionally raw.”

He’s here because … he’s finally found his breakout role at 39 in the little movie that could; who can resist that?

Marshall’s “Oscars”

I’ve seen all five of the nominees in this category, and I think they did a great job selecting here.  The only change I would make is replacing Morgan Freeman for Peter Sarsgaard in “An Education.”  Freeman did a great job in “Invictus,” but I felt like it was just him going through the motions.  He didn’t wow me.

Sarsgaard, on the other hand, dazzled me.  He was campaigned for Best Supporting Actor, but category fraud doesn’t happen at my awards.  He brings such grace and debonair to his character, the wooer of teenage Jenny, that I didn’t doubt why she fell for his charms.

So, the lineup at my awards would be …

Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
George Clooney, “Up in the Air”
Colin Firth, “A Single Man”
Jeremy Renner, “The Hurt Locker”
Peter Sarsgaard, “An Education”

Predictions

Should win: George Clooney, “Up in the Air”
Could win: Jeremy Renner, “The Hurt Locker”
Will win: Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”

Bridges has it in the bag, no question about it.  If his wide array of trophies for this performance wasn’t enough, the massive standing ovations he has received collecting them leave no doubt in my mind.

But before they were candidates, they were performances.  And even before that, they were characters that existed on a page.  Each of these are just stages, and to move from one to the other, a fantastic actor is crucial.

Here, I intend to celebrate the actresses for their work in turning that character into a performance, work that was so excellent that it turned them into candidates.

Sandra Bullock in “The Blind Side”

IN MY OWN WORDS: “Sandra Bullock’s spirited and spunky performance (which was good enough to overcome her dreadful accent) atones for some of the errors the film makes with her story.”

She’s here because … she is a popular actress playing a likable character in the box office surprise of the year.

Helen Mirren in “The Last Station”

She’s here because … she’s Helen Mirren and the Academy loves her; who cares if no one in America had seen her movie when the ballots were due?

Carey Mulligan in “An Education”

IN MY OWN WORDS: “The understated grace and poise that Mulligan gives to Jenny is what evoked Hepburn’s resemblance, but the real marvel of Mulligan’s acting is that the old-fashioned spirit does not make her character some kind of antique.”

She’s here because … she is a brilliant rising star who dazzles in one of the year’s most agreeable movies.

Meryl Streep in “Julie & Julia”

IN MY OWN WORDS: “[Streep] completely masters the persona of the larger-than-life personality and woman – but to anyone that has seen Streep’s work, this is hardly a surprise.”

She’s here because … this is yet another fantastic Meryl Streep performance, and the Academy can’t not nominate one of those.

Gabourey Sidibe in “Precious”

IN MY OWN WORDS: “[Sidibe] makes us feel great concern about her character from the instant we see her trudging through her school.  As Precious gains confidence, our concern develops into genuine care and affection.”

She’s here because … in her first role, she commands the screen with the presence of a veteran.

Marshall’s Oscars

I haven’t seen “The Last Station,” but three of the four nominated performances that I have seen made my Best Actress list.  The exception is Sandra Bullock, who I think has a great story this year, but not one of the best performances.

One spot goes to Zooey Deschanel for her fantastic work on “(500) Days of Summer.”  Her performance has stuck with me all year, and its beautiful subtleties are astounding.  In one of my first reviews on this blog, I raved of Deschanel:

Summer [Deschanel's character] also has a deep need to be love, but she makes this yearning ever so subtle. Deschanel is able to play this crucial undertone quite skillfully … Deschanel, who most audiences will remember as Will Ferrell’s love interest in “Elf,” plays Summer with the right balance of warmth and bitterness. She plays hard-to-get but also projects Summer’s need to be loved at the same time.

I’ve always been hesitant about giving acting awards to foreign language performances (not that it really matters), but the more I have thought about Melanie Laurent’s performance in “Inglourious Basterds,” the more remarkable it has become for me.  I didn’t say anything other than her being “poignant” in my review, yet her virtuoso work is actually quite astounding.  Obviously Waltz reigns supreme in the film, but she’s crucial to the movie’s success in her own right.

At my prestigious ceremony, the nominees read as followed:

Zooey Deschanel, “(500) Days of Summer”
Melanie Laurent, “Inglourious Basterds”
Carey Mulligan, “An Education”
Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”
Gabourey Sidibe, “Precious”

Predictions

Should win: Carey Mulligan, “An Education”
Could win: Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”
Will win: Sandra Bullock, “The Blind Side”

The race is between Streep and Bullock, with Mulligan and Sidibe as the major dark horses.  Ultimately, I think the fact that Meryl already has two statues on her mantle coupled with the popularity of “The Blind Side” is enough to propel Bullock to the win.

It’s an interesting mix, but I’ll try not to treat them as numbers or as candidates.  They are actors, and they give performances.  The Oscars become a political race, but I think it’s time to relax and remember 2009 simply as it was: a great year at the theater.

Matt Damon in “Invictus”

IN MY OWN WORDS: “The urgency with which [Damon] sets out to transform rugby into something more than just a game for his team is played with an ardent and admirable intensity.”

He’s here because … he had a great year, playing two completely different characters, and he is a well-liked and popular actor.

Woody Harrelson in “The Messenger”

He’s here because … he is a character actor who has gone too long unnoticed and under appreciated, and it is time for his moment in the sun.

Christopher Plummer in “The Last Station”

He’s here because … he is a fantastic aging actor who had never been nominated before this year, and it was time to correct the crime.

Stanley Tucci in “The Lovely Bones”

He’s here because … he’s a well-liked actor who showed his versatility this year, and he has sympathy after the sad loss of his wife to cancer earlier this year.

Christoph Waltz in “Inglourious Basterds”

IN MY OWN WORDS: “[Waltz] makes Landa very eerie, nearing the level of Javier Bardem in ‘No Country for Old Men,’ but he is also quite likeable and somewhat charming despite the atrocious deeds he commits.”

He’s here because … he is absolutely spellbinding and commanded the screen every time he graced it.

Marshall’s “Oscars”

It’s a little tough for me to gauge how well the Academy did with this category because at this moment, I have only seen two of the five nominated performances.  However, the two that I did see (Waltz and Damon) both made my list.

As for the other three, it’s a bit of an eccentric collection.  First, I would like to honor the snubbed Alfred Molina for his role as Jenny’s father in “An Education.”  Last year, I spoke on my strong support for his performance:

“Among the ensemble, the real standout is Alfred Molina as Jenny’s father.  Despite being a stern authoritarian when it comes to educational matters, Molina brings an all-encompassing charm that lets us know that he cares for her greatly (but with the values of a fading generation).  His presence lends a warm feel to the movie that blends well with all the other pleasant sentiments the movie radiates.”

Another actor who made my list is not a conventional Academy pick (and thus he finds a home here): Alec Baldwin for “It’s Complicated.”  Other than perhaps “The Hangover” guys, I can’t think of any one actor who made me bust a gut so hard in 2009.  In my review, I raved of Baldwin:

“The real comedic spirit of the film comes from Alec Baldwin, who plays the overbearing fun-lover with such energy that he steals the screen every time he appears on it.  Motivated by little other than carnal desires, [his character's] every move is fairly anticipated, but Baldwin’s zeal and verve prevent them ensure that they are always hysterical.”

For my final nominee, I debated including Paul Schneider for his role as poet John Keats’ friend in “Bright Star” as well as Stephen Lang for his muscling role as tough-as-nails marine in “Avatar.”  But after some thought, I decided that the spot deservingly goes to Nicholas Hoult for playing an overly interested student in “A Single Man.”  At first, I found myself quite annoyed by the character.  But as soon as I got over that, I discovered that a great performance lay underneath:

“The real acting standout is the young Nicholas Hoult as George’s overly inquisitive pupil, Kenny.  The script only feeds him obsequiously sexually inviting lines, and it’s hard to overcome that.  But Hoult understands the nature of his character and allows him to progress from somewhat creepy to somewhat of a guardian angel for George (look no further than his giant white sweater).”

So, at Marshall’s Oscars, the nominees would have been…

Alec Baldwin, “It’s Complicated”
Matt Damon, “Invictus”
Nicholas Hoult, “A Single Man”
Alfred Molina, “An Education”
Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”

Predictions:

Should win: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”
Could win: Christopher Plummer, “The Last Station”
Will win: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”

The only way Waltz loses here is if the voters feel like they need to give Plummer a “career achievement” Oscar. But even that doesn’t seem likely after Waltz’s steamrolling through this season.

By this point, the ballots are in, and all the campaigning is over. The politics of the Oscars are over, and now we are just left with the scripts, the performances, and the movies.  Rather than do one big post discussing and analyzing all of the categories, I want to use this week to honor the films and performances themselves.

Penelope Cruz in “Nine”

IN MY OWN WORDS: “Cruz is absolutely mesmerizing from the first instant we see her traipsing around on some pink fabric.”

She’s here because … she was the highlight of a pretty disastrous movie, pulling off one of the year’s sexiest performances.

Vera Farmiga in “Up in the Air”

IN MY OWN WORDS: “Vera Farmiga walks a very thin line between “feminine and agressive,” according to Reitman, and she never gives us any hint that she will lose her balance.”

She’s here because … she is a delightful female counterpart to George Clooney, and her performance illuminates Clooney’s character as a whole.

Maggie Gyllenhaal in “Crazy Heart”

IN MY OWN WORDS: “It’s a performance very much in Gyllehaal’s comfort zone, and she’s pleasant to watch.”

She’s here because … she holds her own against the renowned Jeff Bridges, and she has a lot of respect amongst actors (not unlike her co-star).

Anna Kendrick in “Up in the Air”

IN MY OWN WORDS: [Kendrick] doesn’t show promise as a star; Natalie Keener has made her one.

She’s here because … she is a brilliant discovery, making uptight lovable and reminding us of the happiness and pain that comes with having real human relationships.

Mo’Nique in “Precious”

IN MY OWN WORDS: “Mo’Nique delivers a performance that is absolutely harrowing.”

She’s here because … this is the most emotionally gripping performance of 2009, and it’s equally shocking to think that it comes from the actress who headlined “Phat Girlz” three years ago.

Marshall’s “Oscars”

The Academy did a pretty good job this year. My top five match 4/5 with their list.

I would replace Maggie Gyllenhaal with Rosamund Pike for “An Education.”  Both played relatively simple characters: Gyllenhaal the devoted single mother and Pike the dumb blonde.  But the distinction arises from what they do with it.  Gyllenhaal seems complacent with sticking to the stock character; on the other hand, Pike does fascinating things with Helen.  I didn’t feel like I was watching the ten millionth air-headed rich blonde because Pike made it feel refreshing and new.

In my review, I said about Pike:

“The performance that will probably go criminally unheralded is Rosamund Pike as one of David’s companions.  She is the typical ‘dumb blonde’ stereotype, but she brings her own flair to it in a way that makes the tired stock character seem brand new.  When she is on screen, you can’t help but grin.”

So, at Marshall’s Oscars, the nominees are…

Penelope Cruz, “Nine”
Vera Farmiga, “Up in the Air”
Anna Kendrick, “Up in the Air”
Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Rosamund Pike, “An Education”

In case you don’t realize this, my favorite is revealed in the “should win” listed below.

Predictions

Should win: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Could win: Anna Kendrick, “Up in the Air”
Will win: Mo’Nique, “Precious”

No way in hell anyone other than Mo’Nique wins. She’s just too good.

This distinction is important because at the Oscars, it is not just the performance that is rewarded.  It is the actor themselves.  The Academy elects four actors each year to become the face of quality of their industry to the world.  These actors can forever affix the title “Academy Award Winner” to their name on any poster or trailer they so desire.  Thus, they vote not only for a great body of work but also for a face and a personality that represents them well.

The performance gets a select group of actors some attention.  Their name and reputation gets them to the next step: consideration.  Then, a few big groups take a leap and select one of them.  At this point, the part of the voter is done.  It is up to the actors to let us know where they stand.  With their acceptance speech, it is their job to convince us why they deserve the highest honor that their craft has to give.  It is their job to show voters what a vote for them really means.

Let’s take a look at the five actors who have won top prizes from the Golden Globes and the Screen Actors Guild.

Jeff Bridges

A vote for Bridges is a vote for a well-respected and unassuming industry veteran to have his moment of supreme recognition.

Bridges has accepted both awards with a very authentic humility, quipping at the Globes, “You are really screwing up my under-appreciated status!”  He is obviously aware of the chatter surrounding him, most of it around the fact that he is long overdue for the Oscar.  Both of his wins were greeted with rousing standing ovations, which displayed the high regard that the industry holds him in.

In his two most public speeches, he has thanked his long-time stand-in.  Giving thanks to someone who usually goes unlauded has been a genuinely gracious and appreciative move, and it definitely bodes well with the voters.

Sandra Bullock

A vote for Bullock is a vote for an actress who decides to completely reinvent herself.

It’s arguable that Bullock really delivered the most powerful performance by a female last year, but she most assuredly has had one of the greatest stories of the year.

She gave herself a giant boost when she said in her SAG speech, “I’m so proud to be in a room full of faces who inspire me and allowed me six years ago to say ‘I’m going to stop working’ because I wasn’t doing good work and audition again.  And you say goodbye to the money and you say goodbye to all the things you became comfortable with.”  Most actors make a few bad movies, but for comedic actors especially, this often turns into a long downward slide ultimately followed by irrelevancy.  Bullock has proven that it is possible to make a career turnaround, and she has become the success story that voters and audiences love.

Bullock isn’t your typical “awards bait” actress, and she definitely has a lot of weapons in her comedic arsenal.  She pulled out a great one to open her SAG speech by saying, “If this were only not televised so I could use the appropriate words I am feeling right now.”  She has been a hit with both crowds by simply being herself and talking as if she were talking to friends.

We’ve seen this formula before: a popular and likable actress in a generally likable movie playing a strong character.  It’s a different kind of acting to reward, but Sandra Bullock has soundly established her case for why she should win it.

Meryl Streep

A vote for Meryl is a vote to reward an actress who consistently delivers outstanding performances.

She is the actress of our generation, and her record-breaking 16 Academy Award nominations are the biggest testament to this.  When she steps onto the set of a movie, the assumption now is that she will be Oscar-nominated for it.  You can’t buy that kind of respect.

She has only taken home an award from the Golden Globes, but her speech displayed the composure that one gets from receiving so many of these things.  She started off by joking that she wanted to change her name to T-Bone Streep (after fellow Globes winner T-Bone Burnett).  She followed by hilariously stating that because she has been known for playing extraordinary women that she often gets mistaken for them, but she recognizes herself as a vessel for their stories.

However, the most touching moment in her speech came from her description of the role she played in “Julie & Julia.”  She wasn’t merely impersonating the famous chef Julia Child; she was channeling her mother’s passion for life.  Really, the speech just reminded us what we already knew: Streep is an eloquent actress who gives us no reason to doubt her reverential status.

Christoph Waltz

A vote for Christoph Waltz is a vote for a class act and for discovery of new talent, no matter what age.

Waltz has been the most prepared actor of them all at the podium.  Does it mark overconfidence in himself?  Not necessarily, but it’s nice to know that he wants to do something meaningful with his minute on the world stage.  The impressiveness of his calm and collected behavior at the podium starkly contrasted at the SAG Awards with television winner Drew Barrymore, who constantly uttered “um” when she wasn’t stumbling over the few words she could manage.

His speeches have been thematically relevant to the occasions in which they have been presented.  In his Golden Globes speech, Waltz talked about how “Inglourious Basterds” and Quentin Tarantino rocked his globe.  At the SAG awards, he gave one of the most insightful speeches that reflected on the many pain-staking steps that help to bring a performance to the screen.  This involved thanking actors, producers, directors, writers, and even the projectionist who literally puts his performance on the screen.

Waltz is a new phenomenon on the Hollywood scene, an Austrian actor getting his first big role with “Inglourious Basterds.”  The performance has had to make up for his lack of status among the actors, but as response to his speeches have shown, they seem to have no problem taking him in.

Mo’Nique

A vote for Mo’Nique is a vote for the best performance of the year, even if the actor’s habits and personality may lack refinement.

Mo’Nique hasn’t exactly been a charmer on the campaign trail, refusing to show up to lesser awards ceremonies unless she gets paid.  It normally costs an actor greatly when they don’t humbly suck up to the voters; it killed Eddie Murphy in 2006.

But her speeches have let us know how much the awards mean to her.  In her two moments in the worldwide spotlight, she has won over crowds with her heartfelt gratitude.  She has thanked God in both speeches in a very sincere way and graciously thanked the usual suspects.

However, her most emotional and touching moments have come from her speech dedications.  At the Golden Globes, she dedicated her speech to all victims of domestic abuse and incest like the characters in “Precious.”  She told them that it was okay to come forward and get help and that it was their time.  This was an expected move, but I was particularly touched by her SAG acceptance speech when she thanked the child with Down Syndrome who played Precious’ daughter for her special gifts.  Although few who hadn’t seen the movie would have understood this, it still communicated well to all audiences.

As we kick off Oscar week, who has impressed you the most at the awards ceremonies?  Has there been anyone that has improved their standing with you based on their speeches?

Best Director:
Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
James Cameron, “Avatar”
Lee Daniels, “Precious”
Jason Reitman, “Up in the Air”
Quentin Tarantino, “Inglourious Basterds”

Best Actor:
Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
George Clooney, “Up in the Air”
Colin Firth, “A Single Man”
Morgan Freeman, “Invictus”
Jeremy Renner, “The Hurt Locker”

Best Actress:
Sandra Bullock, “The Blind Side”
Helen Mirren, “The Last Station”
Carey Mulligan, “An Education”
Gabourey Sidibe, “Precious”
Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”

Best Supporting Actor:
Matt Damon, “Invictus”
Woody Harrelson, “The Messenger”
Christopher Plummer, “The Last Station”
Stanley Tucci, “The Lovely Bones”
Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”

Best Supporting Actress:
Penelope Cruz, “Nine”
Vera Farmiga, “Up in the Air”
Maggie Gyllenhaal, “Crazy Heart”
Anna Kendrick, “Up in the Air”
Mo’Nique, “Precious”

Best Original Screenplay:
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The Messenger
A Serious Man
Up

Best Adapted Screenplay:
District 9
An Education
In the Loop
Precious
Up in the Air

(deep breath)

I can barely contain myself!  The morning that I spend all year anticipating is tomorrow!  Last year, they gave me a nice sucker punch to the gut by denying “The Dark Knight” nominations for Best Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay.  Four years ago, the same happened to “Walk the Line.”

We often let the pain outweigh the good on nomination morning.  Remember than even if your favorite movie doesn’t get a nomination, life will go on.  The filmmakers made the movie to entertain and excite, not to win awards (despite what we might cynically think).

Without further ado, here are my final predictions for the names and movies Anne Hathaway will be calling out on Tuesday morning.  (NOTE: I’m going to limit my speculation as to who will win and try to keep it mostly about the nominations.)

Best Picture

1. The Hurt Locker
2. Avatar
3. Inglourious Basterds
4. Up in the Air
5. Precious
6. Up
7. An Education
8. Invictus
9. Crazy Heart
10. District 9

Most people have my top 8 set in stone (although a few might argue about how secure “Up” and “Invictus” really are); it’s those final two slots that have everyone sweating bullets.

There has been a lot of speculation about this year as an important crossroads for the Academy.  Do they choose a piece of traditional and powerful filmmaking, “The Hurt Locker,” or do they choose “Avatar,” the game-changing movie for 3-D technology and motion capture which has made a whopping 50 times more than the aforementioned film?  Really, it comes down to how the Academy defines “best,” a topic which I have speculated about in the past and will continue to talk about in the month to come.

I think these last two Best Picture nominees will reflect the voter’s conflicting interests.  Some want to appease the crowd (a la “Avatar”) and some want to continue to nominate the usual fare (a la “The Hurt Locker”).

The crowd-pleaser: “District 9.”  The movie is a clever metaphor for the Apartheid, which doesn’t make it to hard of a sell with the Academy technophobes.  It has critical support as well as guild support (Producers, Editors, and Art Directors).  It might have scored a nomination from the Writers Guild had it not been ruled ineligible.  It might not have a large section of passionate fans, but most respect and like the movie.  I think that will be enough.

The awards bait: “Crazy Heart.”  If it does get in, Fox Searchlight owes it all to Jeff Bridges.  Sure, “Crazy Heart” has guild support, but only from the Writers Guild (and probably only because of many disqualifications).  Bridges is clearly the highlight of this movie, and the studio has been selling that since day 1.  There have been plenty of movies that get to the big dance because of one performance, such as Helen Mirren and “The Queen,” Philip Seymour Hoffman and “Capote,” and Jamie Foxx and “Ray,” just to name a few.  So I’m predicting that “Crazy Heart” gets it.  Call me crazy.

I’ll address the other candidates and why I don’t think they will make the cut.  ”A Serious Man” has no big support, and a Golden Globes snub was a huge blow.  ”Star Trek” has Writers and Producers Guild support, but it’s too big and booming blockbuster for their taste.  ”The Messenger” is too small to make it without any big champions.  ”The Hangover” is just too raunchy for all the old members of the Academy.  ”The Blind Side” may be the big story of the year, but it’s all about Sandra because the support just isn’t there for the movie as a whole.  ”Nine” might unpleasantly surprise despite its widely publicized flop: it did get the SAG ensemble nominee, which means that it is liked among the actors who make up the majority of the Academy.

I’m going to break my self-imposed rule and talk about who will win Best Picture.  Most people have it narrowed down to five candidates for the win, and I think the nominations will give us subtle clues about who the voters are favoring. (The * denotes the most telling sign, not necessarily the most plausible though.)

They are feeling “The Hurt Locker” if…
Anthony Mackie gets a nomination for Best Supporting Actor.*
the final two Best Picture nominees are typical Academy fare.
it gets the most nominations.

They are feeling “Avatar” if…
it gets a Best Original Screenplay nomination.
“District 9″ and/or “Star Trek” gets a Best Picture nomination.
any member of the cast gets an acting nomination.
Zoë Saldana gets a Best Actress nomination.*
it gets the most nominations.

They are feeling “Inglourious Basterds” if…
Diane Kruger gets a Best Supporting Actress nomination.
Mélanie Laurent gets a Best Actress nomination.*
it gets the most nominations.

They are feeling “Precious” if…
Mariah Carey gets a Best Supporting Actress nomination.*

To be honest, I think “Up in the Air” is locked in with its six nominations from the Golden Globes, plus one for editing. I don’t really think there is a way to discern how positively the Academy receives the movie. If it were to be snubbed, then we would know to discount it (unfortunately).

Best Director

1. Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
2. James Cameron, “Avatar” 
3. Quentin Tarantino, “Inglourious Basterds” 
4. Jason Reitman, “Up in the Air” 
5. Lee Daniels, “Precious”

Welcome back, Lee Daniels.  After the final slot at the Golden Globes went to Clint Eastwood, he bounced back and received a Directors Guild nomination.  The dying support for “Invictus” only aids him now, but his spot is still insecure.

The spoiler here could be Lone Sherfig for “An Education,” but this would probably only happen if they were really into the year of the woman theme.  Then again, the Academy could take a big stand for Clint again.  It wouldn’t be the first time.

As for the win, it comes down to Bigelow vs. Cameron.  A battle of the exes.  This is competition that is bigger and better than anything reality TV can buy.  After the DGA win, my money is still on Bigelow.

Best Actor

1. Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
2. George Clooney, “Up in the Air”
3. Jeremy Renner, “The Hurt Locker”
4. Colin Firth, “A Single Man”
5. Morgan Freeman, “Invictus”

This is the only category where I feel almost rock solid with all five nominees.  This has been the standard five all awards season (although the Golden Globes swapped Renner for Tobey Maguire).

Best Actress

1. Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia“ 
2. Sandra Bullock, “The Blind Side”
3. Carey Mulligan, “An Education”
4. Gabourey Sidibe, “Precious” 
5. Emily Blunt, “The Young Victoria”

Fine, world.  You win.  Sandra Bullock is in.  The movie is too succesful and the story has gotten too much publicity.  With wins at the SAG, Golden Globes, and Critics Choice Awards, she has the support necessary to win.  So obviously, a nomination is in the bag.

Streep is my favorite to win, and she will most assuredly break her own record and net her 16th acting nomination.  This is unprecedented, and maybe it’s time to reward the best actress of our generation by giving her the highest prize in the industry that she hasn’t won in 27 years.  Mulligan and Sidibe are locks too.

The last slot troubles me.  Common sense would say it is going to Helen Mirren for “The Last Station.”  She has the respect; we know because she won this award three short years ago.  She has been nominated by the SAG and the Golden Globes, two very crucial precursors.  But she has no victories and, more importantly, no passionate supporters.  It also doesn’t help that “The Last Station” has only been shown in nine theaters.  No one has seen this movie.  Nominations for the movie are going to be seen as pretentiousness.

A surprise nominee in the category could be Mélanie Laurent of “Inglourious Basterds.”  With no prior mentions and a bit of category confusion, Laurent is a huge underdog, but love for her movie could be enough to catapult her into contention.  The actors, who pick the nominees, showed plenty of it at the SAG Awards. Some have put forth Zoë Saldana as a nominee for “Avatar.”  A nomination would mean that “Avatar” has Best Picture in the bag.  But her inclusion would be very unlikely given how threatened actors might feel by the motion capture technology, which has the power to make them irrelevant.

My pick for the final nominee is Emily Blunt for “The Young Victoria.”  She has respect for roles prior to this; her hilarious assistant in the comedic hit “The Devil Wears Prada” earned her nominations from both the Golden Globes and the BAFTA (the British equivalent of the Oscars).  In the same year, she won a Golden Globe for her work on a BBC TV special.  This year, she has been cited by the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice Awards for her performance.  I see her sneaking in like Keira Knightley in 2005 for “Pride and Prejudice.”  Another young British actress, Knightley had a very similar trajectory through awards season. No one really thought she could take down Reese Witherspoon or Felicity Huffman, but it was a nice way to acknowledge a good performance from an up-and-coming actress.  So my pick is Blunt.  That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”
2. Woody Harrelson, “The Messenger”
3. Christopher Plummer, “The Last Station“
4. Alfred Molina, “An Education”
5. Anthony Mackie, “The Hurt Locker”

Here’s the category that could easily be radically different from my predictions.  The only person I predict with complete confidence is Waltz, who has piled up virtually every award this year (and deservedly so).

When you have a performance like Waltz’s, which is so universally loved, it makes having other nominees seem almost pointless.  It feels to me like there aren’t many passionate supporters of any of the other candidates.  The only actor to have won a formidable prize other than Waltz is Woody Harrelson, who took the first award of the year from the National Board of Review for his role in “The Messenger.”

The three big guns (Golden Globes, Critics Choice, SAG) agreed on Waltz, Harrelson, Stanley Tucci for “The Lovely Bones,” and Matt Damon for “Invictus.”  For the fifth slot, he Globes and SAG chose Christopher Plummer for “The Last Station” while the Critics Choice chose Alfred Molina for “An Education.”

Even though Tucci and Damon got the holy trifecta (if you will), I can’t call either of them safe.  ”The Lovely Bones” has tanked with critics and audiences, and the movie has no real awards traction.  Tucci could easily be caught in an across the board snub.  Some bold writers have suggested that those who admire Tucci could nominate him for the much more agreeable “Julie & Julia.”  As Julia Child’s husband, he was quite the charmer, a contrast to the murdering pedophile he played in “The Lovely Bones.”  Damon has to overcome the so-so feelings about “Invictus,” a daunting task.  I think Morgan Freeman will be able to do it only because of his reverential status.  Although Damon has one acting nomination to his credit, I have my doubts.

I think Alfred Molina, despite two big snubs, will be able to make it in the field with help from a significant British faction of the voting body.  They loved “An Education;” the film’s eight nominations at the BAFTAs clearly show that.

With Christopher Plummer, the same issue with Helen Mirren comes up: no one has seen “The Last Station.”  But Plummer is 80 years old, beloved, and without an Academy Award nomination.  I think “it’s time” is enough to overpower the aforementioned issue.

As for that final slot, I’m going to make a gusty pick.  Despite having no individual mention all season, I think Anthony Mackie will be nominated for “The Hurt Locker.”  I think the Academy is going to show a lot of love for his movie, and it seems logical that Mackie would get caught in this wave of good feelings.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Mo’Nique, “Precious”
2. Anna Kendrick, “Up in the Air”
3. Vera Farmiga, “Up in the Air” 
4. Julianne Moore, “A Single Man”
5. Penelope Cruz, “Nine“

The sure bets here are Mo’Nique and the girls of “Up in the Air.”  The SAG miss for Moore hurts her chances, but I still think she will get in based on her previous history with the Academy (four nominations, no wins).  If they want to set her up as a Kate Winslet-type actress who needs to win the statue eventually, every nomination helps.

The last slot is a headache.  Some think it will go to Maggie Gyllenhaal for “Crazy Heart.”  While I think the movie could net a Best Picture nomination, I think it is a stretch to think she could get cited here because she hasn’t even been a blip on the precursor radar.  But Michael Shannon did it last year, so nothing is impossible.  Others think Samantha Morton in “The Messenger” will be buoyed by Woody Harrelson and a potential surprise Best Picture nomination, but she also hasn’t popped up at all.  She does have the advantage of being a previous nominee, yet I’m not sure how much that would help.

SAG nominee Diane Kruger is a real possibility, and if the Academy loves “Inglourious Basterds,” she could very well pop up here.  But with a double punch of Golden Globes and SAG, I think Penelope Cruz will reappear in the category a year after winning it.  If the actors really like “Nine,” they could avoid the potential anger that would come with nominating it for Best Picture by honoring it here.

Best Original Screenplay

1. Inglourious Basterds
2. The Hurt Locker
3. Up 
4. (500) Days of Summer
5. A Serious Man 

No change here among nominees, only “The Hurt Locker” jumping up for probably a two-man race with “Inglourious Basterds.”  James Cameron’s “Avatar” script could pop up if they fall head over heels for the movie, and I think it would probably knock out “A Serious Man.”  A swap of pretentiousness for populism.

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Up in the Air
2. An Education
3. Precious
4. District 9 
5. Crazy Heart

The top three are locks.  The last two are somewhat problematic.

I’ll take my last two Best Picture picks, “District 9″ and “Crazy Heart.”  The former received a Golden Globe nomination; the latter, a Writers Guild nomination.  Neither are from well-known industry figures, but the nomination looks nice next to the words “BEST PICTURE.”

That’s the end of the predictions portion.  Now, my ending … I needed this line in bold so you wouldn’t think my ending statement was part of the predictions.

I love being able to toss and turn over these nominations; it reminds me what a great year we had in 2009!  Let’s hope the nominations reflect that to the best of their ability.

What do you think?  Am I crazy?  Sane?  Right?  Wrong?  What do you think about the nominations?  Let me know!

Today, the crowd-pleasing movie crossed $200 million at the box office.  This is a number that cannot be ignored – people love this movie.  Only 17% of its take has come from opening weekend, a towering statistic which shows that the movie has survived on repeat business and word of mouth.  The movie has inspired and excited Americans, and the buzz even led to a full-hour special on “20/20″ last night.  So, we have to wonder, is this a dark horse Best Picture candidate?

The movie could be buoyed to the top by Sandra Bullock.  Her year, which also included the smash hit “The Proposal,” has earned her attention and raves.  Her performance in “The Blind Side” has brought nominations from major groups such as the Golden Globes (who also cited her for “The Proposal” in comedy), the Broadcast Film Critics Association, and the Screen Actors Guild.  But is Bullock enough?

The movie stands at a decent 72% on Rotten Tomatoes, but there is a wide discrepancy between top critics (58%) and average moviegoers (93%).  Critics don’t decided a movie’s awards success; however, they do have a very large impact.  The critical champions of “The Blind Side” don’t seem to be incredibly passionate or fervent about it.  In fact, most of them that do like it simply cite that it made them feel good and not much else.

Here’s where it gets tough: trying to decipher voter mentality.  It’s hard to tell what the Oscar voters are thinking about their ballots this year.  We haven’t seen a year with ten Best Picture nominees in decades, so no one can be sure what to expect.  Are we looking at one of the most unconventional lineups in memory?  Or are we just going to be getting the same humdrum Oscar bait movies filling out the field?

If the voters want to choose something that made them feel good, “The Blind Side” might find their way onto some ballots.  I might not have been as inspired as some, but what better testament to the power of cinema is there than a film that has the ability to move you?  In addition, if the voters want to dispel accusations that their selections are pretentious and removed from the general feeling of the American populace in general, “The Blind Side” might seem a natural beneficiary.  It is a movie that shows how far a random act of kindness can go, and Americans love these heartwarming stories.

BEST BETS FOR NOMINATIONS: Best Actress

OTHER POSSIBLE NOMINATIONS: Best Picture