NPR‘s Linda Holmes called the show a “regrouping;” EW called it “comfort food;” I called it “a VERY good night.”  If I had to sum it up in a word, it would be nice.  It was very nice to have Billy Crystal back after a very strange couple of years experimenting with Oscar hosts, both good (Steve Martin, Ellen DeGeneres, Hugh Jackman), bad (Jon Stewart, Alec Baldwin, Anne Hathaway), and ugly (James Franco, Chris Rock).  It was old-fashioned, just like most of the winners … but if something isn’t broken, why try to fix it?  Here was his hysterical song-a-logue opener, per usual.

Maybe the show was just fun for me because the red carpet was SO dull.  The only two women who were worth a desktop background were Rooney Mara and Jessica Chastain.  Bravo, hope to see you all soon.

I mean, THIS was the highlight of the red carpet!  Bizarre, bizarre…

As everyone knew, this was their movie:

And for all those who think “The Artist” will be a head-scratcher of a winner, at least it’s not forgettable and disposable like “The King’s Speech.”  Curious future Academy-minded ponderers will just have to look beyond the title cards and at the context of its win.  The collective psyche of Hollywood should be pretty apparent.

As for the acting winners, no one can really complain.  Jean Dujardin was charming as can be, and a new generation got to see the greatest actress of our time take the Oscar stage to claim a prize she deserves.  Octavia Spencer got all choked up, and it was beautiful.  Christopher Plummer was dashing as ever, and it was very cool to see the oldest actor to ever win an Oscar deliver quite the speech.  In my opinion, they got Supporting exactly as they should – and then just fell to the allure of a living legend and a Frenchman doing his best matinee idol.  Nothing wrong with that.

I always take solace in knowing that many of the greatest movies ever were not Academy darlings.  You can break down many films into “their” movies and “our” movies, and here are some of the greats from 2011 that now belong to us, the fans.  They get “The Artist;” we get “Shame.”

Overall, as I more or less close the book on 2011, the Oscars were able to brighten a pretty dull year.  They found some great work and rewarded it.  While it might not have been my favorite, “The Artist” is a joyous and buoyant movie that reminds us of the artistry and emotion that brings us to the theater and to watching the Oscars every year.

(And in case any of you were wondering, here was my best of 2011 as of last night.  There are still a few movies from last year I didn’t see that could make a few slots move.)

11:36 P.M.  Uggie!  Uggie!  Uggie!  That’s a tie with five trophies for “The Artist” and “Hugo,” and “The Iron Lady” clocks in with two awards.  Everything else only won one award.  My ballot went 19/24 tonight, which is probably one of my better ones in years!  So by all accounts, it was a VERY good night.  Thanks for reading, everyone!  And I guess thanks to Billy Wilder, as Michel Hazanavicius insists!

11:35 P.M. BEST PICTURE: “THE ARTIST“

11:34 P.M.  Just one big montage of all the Best Picture nominees… I guess this will do.

11:31 P.M.  Just to be clear, Meryl Streep is NOT winning her third Oscar for “The Iron Lady.”  She’s winning it for every movie between “Sophie’s Choice” and “The Iron Lady.”  That was bold of her to be so honest as to say, “Half of America went ‘Ohhhh no, not her again!’”  Hats off to the greatest actress of our generation.

11:29 P.M. BEST ACTRESS: MERYL STREEP, “THE IRON LADY“

11:25 P.M.  Even if Viola Davis doesn’t win, it’s an empowering moment for women everywhere to see the actress with her natural hair.

11:19 P.M.  Jean Dujardin gave such a fun, energetic speech … but Harvey Weinstein is going to have his @$$ for not thanking the man who basically made his win possible.

11:18 P.M. BEST ACTOR: JEAN DUJARDIN, “THE ARTIST“

11:14 P.M.  Wait, why did they get rid of all the amazing Best Picture tributes during the ceremony?  It help cut down on time, but I still really liked those!

11:04 P.M.  And the best way to get people to cry is to cue up “What a Wonderful World” when they think about dead people…

10:54 P.M.  ”I’m the happiest director in the world” beats “I’m king of the world!” any day.  Michel, we love your humility … and the fact that you thanked Uggie!

10:53 P.M. BEST DIRECTOR: MICHAEL HAZANAVICIUS, “THE ARTIST“

10:45 P.M.  Wow, I got all three short films right!  That’s never happened before!

10:45 P.M. BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM: “THE FANTASTIC FLYING BOOKS OF MR. MORRIS LESSMORE”

10:42 P.M. BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM: “SAVING FACE”

10:41 P.M.  And the SAG “Scorsese” drinking game continues…

10:40 P.M. BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM: “THE SHORE”

10:39 P.M.  Oh, the “Bridesmaids” cast with their phallic jokes…

10:35 P.M.  In case you missed it early, this happened…

10:32 P.M.  Ok, what is with these random musicians in the boxes?

10:31 P.M.  Woohoo!!!!  That’s the one Oscar I really wanted to see!  I don’t even need an acceptance speech to top it off!

10:30 P.M. BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: “MIDNIGHT IN PARIS“

10:28 P.M.  Gotta love the writer who made fun of Angelina Jolie’s sexy stance.

10:27 P.M. BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: “THE DESCENDANTS”

10:20 P.M.  Stewardesses handing out popcorn in the aisle?  Bordering on overkill…

10:18 P.M. BEST ORIGINAL SONG: MAN OR MUPPET, “THE MUPPETS”

10:16 P.M. “Please accept me because I have so much love to give.” – Ludovic Bource.  Awwww, yes, we accept you!

10:14 P.M. BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: “THE ARTIST“

10:12 P.M.  I mean, it’s not like I screamed when I saw Uggie or anything.

10:09 P.M.  AHHHHHHHHHHHH UGGIE SIGHTING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

10:02 P.M. “You’re only two years older than me, where have you been all my life, darling?!” – Christopher Plummer.  What a wonderfully charming speech.  I’ll remember this one for a long time!

10:01 P.M.  The oldest actor EVER to win an Oscar! Congratulations, Christopher Plummer!  A much-deserved standing ovation!

10:00 P.M. BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER, “BEGINNERS“

9:57 P.M. That’s five for “Hugo” now…

9:56 P.M. BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: “HUGO“

9:56 P.M.  Dear Michael Bay, you are not allowed to talk about artistry.

9:54 P.M.  I’m really enjoying the Emma Stone-Ben Stiller meta-presentation.

9:52 P.M.  Melissa McCarthy’s legs are one way to introduce Ben Stiller and Emma Stone…

9:50 P.M.  Random ad for “Brave?”  I still trust Pixar … even after “Cars 2.”

9:47 P.M. BEST ANIMATED FILM: “RANGO“

9:46 P.M.  ”And then they give me a million dollars!” – Chris Rock.  I think a million unemployed Americans just found their calling.

9:46 P.M.  I’m sure every animator in the world wants to kill Chris Rock right now…

9:43 P.M. BEST DOCUMENTARY FILM: “UNDEFEATED”

9:41 P.M.  Hey Gwenyth, what happened to the cape?!

9:40 P.M.  ”Next year, this will be called the Flomax Theater.” – Billy Crystal

9:37 P.M.  Random to have Cirque du Soleil performing at the Oscars … and awkward that someone fell.

9:34 P.M.  And now the Muppets talking about their first movie theater experience … WE GET IT ALREADY!  Sorry if I’m going to have to watch “We Need to Talk About Kevin” on my phone because it isn’t going to come to me!

9:33 P.M.  I do love a good Oscars ad for “Modern Family.”

9:28 P.M. BEST SOUND MIXING: “HUGO“

9:26 P.M. Hu-go, you-go … very punny.

9:25 P.M. BEST SOUND EDITING: “HUGO“

9:25 P.M.  Did NOT see that one coming!  Two in a row for Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall – much deserved, I must say!

9:24 P.M.  BEST FILM EDITING: “THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO“

9:20 P.M.  Gotta love Christopher Guest comedy!

9:15 P.M.  Throwback Octavia Spencer.

9:14 P.M.  What beautiful tears … they should NOT have made her wrap it up!

9:13 P.M.  She’s so overcome with emotion that she can barely walk, and a very fitting STANDING OVATION!!!

9:12 P.M.  BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: OCTAVIA SPENCER, “THE HELP“

9:10 P.M.  A very classy and timely speech by Iranian director Asgar Faghadi.

9:08 P.M. BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: “A SEPARATION”

9:06 P.M.  Is Sandra Bullock capable of smiling beneath that plastic facade?

9:00 P.M.  And another tribute to going to see the movies from your favorite movie stars, including 11-time Razzie nominee (just from 2011 alone) Adam Sandler!

8:58 P.M.  Ok, are Cameron Diaz and Jennifer Lopez drunk?

8:57 P.M. BEST MAKEUP: “THE IRON LADY“

8:54 P.M.  BEST COSTUME DESIGN: “THE ARTIST“

8:52 P.M.  They are really pushing the big screen with a direct call-out to people who watch movies on their phones.

8:51 P.M.  I’m enjoying all these shout-outs to Kodak’s bankruptcy … “Chapter 11 Theater” and “Your Name Here Theater,” hopefully this is just the beginning.

8:46 P.M.  That’s 2 trophies for “Hugo” already … this could be a BIG technical sweep.

8:45 P.M.  BEST ART DIRECTION: “HUGO“

8:44 P.M.  Short speech … there goes my ballot.

8:44 P.M.  BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: “HUGO“

8:42 P.M.  Aww, Tom Hanks’ shout-out to the seat-filler was very nice.

8:37 P.M.  ”Nothing can take your mind off the economic woes quite like watching millionaires give each other golden statues.” – Billy Crystal

8:36 P.M.  I like the set.  Reminiscent of the 2006 set when “Crash” won Best Picture…

8:35 P.M.  Billy Crystal as Tintin … love it.

8:33 P.M.  This calls for…

8:32 P.M.  Appreciate the meta-joke about netting my generation, but get Justin Bieber the heck out of here.

8:31 P.M.  Who was the lucky person that Morgan Freeman winked at?

8:30 P.M.  Morgan Freeman?

8:26 P.M.  TIME TO START THE SHOW!

8:21 P.M.  One year later, still in love with Natalie Portman…

8:15 P.M.  What will be the Best Picture of 2011, according to the Oscars?  If you’ve been paying a smidgen of attentionduring the season, you should pretty much know.

Best Picture

Will win: The Artist
Could win: Hugo
Should win: Midnight in Paris
Should be nominated: Win Win

It’s the year of nostalgia, the year where Hollywood and the moviegoing public scorned the dramas that probed the depth of our souls and our problems.  ”The Artist” is a reminder of the 1930s when people needed the magic of the movies to make them happy in the face of dark economic despair, and it really is a great signpost of the 2011 zeitgeist.  Nothing else has a chance because nothing else has the momentum.  Forget Frank Bruni’s column in The New York Times this morning, it’s not Mitt Romney from a pundit’s point of view.  It’s a winner in every sense of the word, and everyone should be happy.

8:03 P.M.  Bradley Cooper with a moustache?  And saying that they are doing “The Hangover 3″ … not so sure that’s a good idea.

7:55 P.M.  Best Actor wound up being quite the horserace this year … and we all thought Clooney had it in the bag after the Golden Globes.

Best Actor

Will win: Jean Dujardin, “The Artist”
Could win: George Clooney, “The Descendants”
Should win: George Clooney, “The Descendants”
Should be nominated: Michael Fassbender, “Shame”

I don’t think the case to give Clooney a second Oscar was made strongly enough to overpower the steamroller that is “The Artist.”  Dujardin was funny and charming when he gave acceptance speeches at the Globes, SAG Awards, and BAFTAs.  It’s also a unique role, and the novelty of the performance is probably a lot stronger than George Clooney doing something barely outside George Clooney’s comfort zone.

7:35 P.M.  Best Actress is purportedly the last award before Best Picture tonight.

Best Actress

Will win: Viola Davis, “The Help”
Could win: Meryl Streep, “The Iron Lady”
Should win: Rooney Mara, “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
Should be nominated: Charlize Theron, “Young Adult”

I think when push comes to shove, they won’t give a third Oscar to Meryl Streep for a mediocre movie.  Viola Davis is in the better loved movie, she has never won before, and her victory would be historic.  That’s why I think she pulls out the win in a very tight race.

7:24 P.M.  While I would put Best Director right behind Best Picture in importance, everyone seems to be devaluing it.  So I’ll put my prediction according to their order.

Best Director

Will win: Michel Hazanavicius, “The Artist”
Could win: Martin Scorsese, “Hugo”
Should win: Woody Allen, “Midnight in Paris”
Should be nominated: Steve McQueen, “Shame”

Despite Hazanavicius being a relative no-name, his movie has unstoppable momentum.  They might love Scorsese, but their favorite movie of the year didn’t direct itself now, did it?

7:16 P.M.  Oh goodness … Sacha Baron Cohen on the red carpet as “The Dictator.”  Socks from K-Mart, holding a vase of Kim Jong-Il’s ashes … HOLY MOLY he poured them on Ryan Seacrest!  Being escorted away by securtity – was it planned?

7:05 P.M.  Time for the big categories … we’re getting close now!!!

Best Supporting Actor

Will win: Christopher Plummer, “Beginners”
Could win: Max Von Sydow, “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close”
Should win: Christopher Plummer, “Beginners”
Should be nominated: Uggie, “The Artist”

Best Supporting Actress

Will win: Octavia Spencer, “The Help”
Could win: Berenice Bejo, “The Artist”
Should win: Octavia Spencer, “The Help”
Should be nominated: Shailene Woodley, “The Descendants”

These two categories are basically no-brainers, as they have been since November.  No one has really mounted a serious challenge to them, and if someone takes them down, my jaw will hit the floor at a frightening speed.

6:54 P.M.  The red carpet desperately needs an infusion of Uggie.  Save Rooney and Jessica Chastain, no one is really worth a second look…

6:45 P.M.  Best Adapted Screenplay … it still could surprise us.  Remember that everyone thought Jason Reitman was a lock in 2009 for “Up in the Air,” and then it lost to “Precious.”

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will win: The Descendants
Could win: Moneyball
Should win: The Descendants
Should be nominated: The Help

I think since Clooney is not looking as good for Best Actor anymore, this is where “The Descendants” will win its trophy.  ”Hugo” will get its due in the technical categories, and I’m afraid “Moneyball” will probably go home empty-handed.  Bummer.

6:43 P.M.  ROONEY MARA!  This calls for…

6:33 P.M.  George Clooney on the red carpet.  Did you catch his profile in Tiger Beat from the ’80s?  It’s priceless.

6:30 P.M.  Even though it probably won’t win, here’s a great scene from “Bridesmaids.”

Hopefully it will win, so here’s a great scene from “Midnight in Paris.”

So what will win the coveted Best Original Screenplay prize?  Here is my prediction:

Best Original Screenplay

Will win: Midnight in Paris
Could win: The Artist
Should win: Midnight in Paris
Should be nominated: Win Win

While this category could just be another win for “The Artist” if it manages to orchestrate a major sweep, I’m thinking most voters saved this trophy for Woody Allen … even though he won’t come to get it.

6:15 P.M.  Here are some more technical category predictions, likely to be dominated by two movies – “Hugo” and “The Artist” with the occasional trophy going to another movie.

Best Art Direction

Will win: Hugo
Could win: The Artist
Should win: Hugo
Should be nominated: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Best Cinematography

Will win: The Tree of Life
Could win: Hugo
Should win: The Tree of Life
Should be nominated: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Best Costume Design

Will win: The Artist
Could win: Jane Eyre
Should win: Hugo
Should be nominated: The Help

6:00 P.M. Will the technical dominance of “Hugo” allow it to take two categories in which it’s currently considered the underdog?  That’s the question facing us all when we fill out our ballots.

Best Film Editing

Will win: The Artist
Could win: Hugo
Should win: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Should be nominated: Martha Marcy May Marlene

Best Visual Effects

Will win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Could win: Hugo
Should win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Should be nominated: The Tree of Life

And here’s one category that “Hugo” definitely won’t win … because it isn’t nominated.

Best Makeup

Will win: The Iron Lady
Could win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
Should win: The Iron Lady
Should be nominated: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

5:45 P.M.  The sound categories, always a conundrum.  Do you pick the same movie for both, or predict a split and risk getting both of them wrong?  Here’s some background on the art of crafting a movie’s soundtrack courtesy of SoundWorks.

“Drive“

“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo“

“Hugo“

“Transformers: Dark of the Moon“

“War Horse“

Best Sound Editing

Will win: Hugo
Could win: War Horse
Should win: War Horse
Should be nominated: Super 8

Best Sound Mixing

Will win: Hugo
Could win: War Horse
Should win: War Horse
Should be nominated: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

5:42 P.M.  Miss Piggy and Kermit on the red carpet?  This deserves …

5:40 P.M. Best Animated Film is (sadly) the biggest lock of the night; Best Documentary Film is probably the most wide open race of the night.

Best Animated Film 

Will win: Rango
Could win: A Cat in Paris
Should win: Puss in Boots
Should be nominated: The Adventures of Tintin

Best Documentary Film

Will win: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Could win: Pina
Should win: Pina
Should be nominated: Life in a Day

5:33 P.M.  Sorry for being MIA – technology stinks sometimes.  The music categories are always fun.  Here is a sampling of the nominees selected by the curious branch.

Best Original Score

“The Adventures of Tintin,” John Williams

“The Artist,” Ludovic Bource

“Hugo,” Howard Shore

“Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy,” Alberto Iglesias

“War Horse,” John Williams

Will win: The Artist
Could win: Hugo
Should win: The Artist
Should be nominated: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Best Original Song

Man or Muppet from “The Muppets,” music/lyrics by Bret McKenzie

Real in Rio from “Rio,” music by Sergio Mendes and Carlinhos Brown, lyrics by Siedah Garrett

Will win: Man or Muppet, “The Muppets”
Could win: Real in Rio, “Rio”
Should win: Man or Muppet, “The Muppets”
Should be nominated: Life’s a Happy Song, “The Muppets”

4:00 P.M. I guess it’s about time to start rolling out some predictions. Here are some of the categories that most people fill out blindly on their ballot. Don’t worry, I haven’t seen any of these nominees either, so it’s not just you. (I do intend to catch up with most of the foreign films at some point, though.)

Best Short Film (Animated)

Will win: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
Could win: La Luna

Best Short Film (Live Action)

Will win: The Shore
Could win: Tuba Atlantic

Best Short Film (Documentary)

Will win: Saving Face
Could win: Incident in New Baghdad

Best Foreign Language Film

Will win: A Separation
Could win: In Darkness

3:45 P.M. Oh, Billy Crystal, how I’ve missed you.

3:30 P.M. Kees van Dijkhuizen always has the best year-end film montages. If you haven’t seen his videos, check it out. It’s a good six minutes.

3:15 P.M. “Not so fast, Bridesmaids … NONE OF YOU GETS A BOUQUET!”

3:00 P.M. Looking for some light reading this afternoon? How about my post for LAMBs Devour the Oscars about “The Help?” Click the image below to be taken to the article!

Have you read enough about “The Artist” yet? If you haven’t, I highly recommend you check out Maureen Dowd’s column from The New York Times entitled “Silence is Golden.” It’s by far one of the best pieces I read all season, if not the best. Here’s just a sampling of what she had to say:

It turns out that all the skeptics were wrong, and it was clever to do a silent movie in 2011, as an antidote to our modern plague of pointless chatter. It’s a weird paradox that the essential feature of technology is talkativeness, but usually without the sound of human voices attached.

In the case of “The Artist,” silence is not only golden, it’s a reminder of how much you can articulate without words. If you take away the language, green screens and 3-D glasses, the feelings — pride, vanity, envy, fear, love — can be more primary and fascinating.

2:45 P.M. Here are some other Oscar funnies worth a look. “Don’t Call Me Oscar” is a Tumblr featuring the Best Picture nominees being lived out by a toddler.

Best Picture nominees with dogs are pretty funny, too. (From NextMovie.)

2:30 P.M. If you haven’t caught onto the latest greatest meme, Jean Dujardin Sleeping on People, I highly recommend you find out what you’re missing. For a little bit of background, it was all born out this picture of Dujardin resting his head on George Clooney’s shoulder during the nominees luncheon.

And now, it has become this and more…

2:15 P.M. Before I start my predictions, I’d like to let Uggie, the scene-stealing wonder dog from “The Artist,” make his.

Best Actor:

Best Actress:

Best Picture:

2:00 P.M. So I guess “The Artist” is influential … those who claim its a movie of little consequence can take this. If “Ice Age” imitates it despite the fact that their audiences are totally dissimilar, it must have really struck a chord!

1:45 P.M. Maybe you’d like to know the honest, no-BS truth about these movies. Thanks to these truthful posters, maybe you’ll see what the Best Picture nominees are really about, courtesy of the Shiznit.

1:30 P.M. IT’S OSCAR DAY!!! Everyone breathe … and then go back to rejoicing! It’s Hollywood’s biggest day. To begin, let’s take a look at the nine nominated films for Best Picture, in case you aren’t familiar with them all by now.

“The Artist“

“The Descendants”

“Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close”

“The Help“

“Hugo“

“Midnight in Paris“

“Moneyball“

“The Tree of Life“

“War Horse“

I got a little worried over the summer when the rule change in Best Picture to allow for a fluid field of five to ten nominees put extra stock in first place votes. I feared that everyone liked the movie but not enough people loved it. Allen has plenty of respect in the Academy – I mean, he’s only been nominated 23 times – and everyone loves it when an old pal returns to form.

But once awards season got rolling, all my doubts were put to rest. It had a relatively easy cruise to a Best Picture nomination after picking up just about every precursor mention necessary to stay firmly planted in the conversation. It was nominated for the top prize at the Critics’ Choice Awards and the Golden Globes as well as picking up a mention as one of the year’s ten best from the American Film Institute. It did exceptionally well on the guild circuit, notching mentions from the Screen Actors Guild, the Producers Guild, the Directors Guild, and the Writers Guild (where it picked up a much deserved win!). I don’t think anyone would deny that in a traditional year of five Best Picture nominees, “Midnight in Paris” would easily have been included.

With the ceremony just days away, everyone knows it’s “The Artist” for Best Picture – just like it has been since the season got kicked off, arguably since Cannes back in May 2011.  Thankfully, a concept I like to call Oscar Socialism will kick in and give “Midnight in Paris” a win. My bet is that it comes for Best Original Screenplay since the writers love Woody Allen and its stiffest competition comes from a film with very little scripted dialogue. He hasn’t won here since 1986 with “Hannah and Her Sisters,” Allen’s highest grossing movie until “Midnight in Paris” surpassed it.

But let’s zoom back for a little bit and examine the movie irrespective of awards season politics. That’s what Woody Allen would want. Why else would he not attend any ceremonies to pick up his well-deserved trophies?

“Midnight in Paris” opens to the music of Sidney Bechet with a three-minute prologue featuring nothing but exterior shots of Paris. And if you aren’t resolved to visit by the time the opening credits roll, I don’t know what will ever make you want to go to Paris. Allen says the sequence is designed “to put people in the mood of Paris.”

The movie itself addresses the theme of nostalgia, and its warning to resist its deceiving allure resonates strongly and truthfully in a Best Picture race that includes “The Artist,” “Hugo,” and “War Horse,” all cinematic paeans to bygone times and styles. Early on in the film, a character states that “Nostalgia is denial – denial of the painful present… the name for this denial is golden age thinking – the erroneous notion that a different time period is better than the one one’s living in – it’s a flaw in the romantic imagination of those people who find it difficult to cope with the present.” Throughout the film, Gil Pender (Owen Wilson) must confront the validity of this assertion as he experiences the joys and the struggles of living in a different era, the 1920s Lost Generation of expatriate artists in Paris.

In a December piece in The Los Angeles Times, Allen reflects on why his latest film seems to have struck such a cord: “”People don’t want to be where they are at the moment. All of us at the moment are in a bad time, because reality is a tough place to be in. Gaugin thinks if he lived in Tahiti, or I think if I moved to Martha’s Vineyard or Paris, would I be happier? That is the constant fantasy, but you’re the person with problems, and they get transferred to the new locale. You can’t shake it.”

For me, movies like “Midnight in Paris” are the perfect companion to deal with the painful present. It’s a movie that doesn’t ignore the problems of the modern age but doesn’t dwell on them as insurmountable. That’s why it’s in the race – and that’s why I believe it deserves to win.

Best Picture

• The Artist
• Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
• The Descendants
• The Help
• Hugo
• Midnight in Paris
• Moneyball
• The Tree of Life
• War Horse

Best Director

• Woody Allen, “Midnight in Paris”
• Michel Hazanavicius, “The Artist”
• Terence Malick, “The Tree of Life”
• Alexander Payne, “The Descendants”
• Martin Scorsese, “Hugo”

Best Actor

• Demian Bichir, “A Better Life”
• George Clooney, “The Descendants”
• Jean Dujardin, “The Artist”
• Gary Oldman, “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy”
• Brad Pitt, “Moneyball”

Best Actress

• Glenn Close, “Albert Nobbs”
• Viola Davis, “The Help”
• Rooney Mara, “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
• Meryl Streep, “The Iron Lady”
• Michelle Williams, “My Week with Marilyn”

Best Supporting Actor

• Kenneth Branagh, “My Week with Marilyn”
• Jonah Hill, “Moneyball”
• Nick Nolte, “Warrior”
• Christopher Plummer, “Beginners”
• Max Von Sydow, “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”

Best Original Screenplay

• The Artist
• Bridesmaids
• Margin Call
• Midnight in Paris
• A Separation

Best Adapted Screenplay

• The Descendants
• Hugo
• The Ides of March
• Moneyball
• Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Best Foreign Language Film

• Bullhead
• Footnote
• In Darkness
• Monsieur Lazhar
• A Separation

Best Animated Film

• A Cat in Paris
• Chico & Rita
• Kung Fu Panda 2
• Puss in Boots
• Rango

Best Documentary

• Hell and Back Again
• If a Tree Falls
• Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
• Pina
• Undefeated

Best Art Direction

• The Artist
• Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows, Part 2
• Hugo
• Midnight in Paris
• War Horse

Best Costume Design

• Anonymous
• The Artist
• Hugo
• Jane Eyre
• W.E.

Best Cinematography

• The Artist
• The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
• Hugo
• The Tree of Life
• War Horse

Best Editing

• The Artist
• The Descendants
• The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
• Hugo
• Moneyball

Best Sound Mixing

• The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
• Hugo
• Moneyball
• Transformers: Dark of the Moon
• War Horse

Best Sound Editing

• Drive
• The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
• Hugo
• Transformers: Dark of the Moon
• War Horse

Best Visual Effects

• Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
• Hugo
• Real Steel
• Rise of the Planet of the Apes
• Transformers: Dark of the Moon

Best Makeup

• Albert Nobbs
• Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
• The Iron Lady

Best Original Score

• The Adventures of Tintin
• The Artist
• Hugo
• Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
• War Horse

Best Original Song

• Man or Muppet, “The Muppets”
• Real in Rio, “Rio”

Big winners

“Hugo.”  While everyone thought that “The Artist” would lead the day in nominations, Scorsese’s film bested it by one nomination.  It scored in every technical category save for makeup.  Needless to say, the Academy LOVED this movie.

“Moneyball.”  The movie saw plenty of skeptics doubting its Best Picture chances, but it scored a nomination and plenty more, popping up in Best Sound Mixing (?) and landing a coveted editing nomination.

George Clooney.  We all knew he would be nominated for Best Actor, but a double nominee thanks to his work on the screenplay for “The Ides of March.”  Interesting.  I think this just solidifies his lead.

John Williams.  So basically, when Spielberg decides to make another movie, Williams gets out his tux and prepares for the Oscars.  Two scores nominated this year, no biggie.

Looking precarious

“The Artist.”  Its presumed frontrunner status took a hit today as it finished one nomination shy of “Hugo.”  Sure, it was nominated everywhere it could be reasonably expected to, but it needs to keep winning precursors to keep the momentum going.

“The Descendants.”  It was nominated for Best Editing, which was a necessary nomination if it wanted to seriously contend for Best Picture.  So that was good.  But with the Shailene Woodley snub, its nomination count was only five – and it’s sure to lose Best Editing and Best Director.  That doesn’t exactly scream Best Picture to me.

Big losers

“Drive.”  Albert Brooks’ omission from Best Supporting Actor meant that the critically acclaimed film only popped up in Best Sound Editing.  Ouch.

“The Help.”  I think the movie just lost its chance to win Best Picture.  Sure, it scored three acting nominations, but it didn’t receive a single technical notice (and its a period piece).  Tate Taylor missed out on both Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay nominations, which really stings.

“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.”  It missed nominations for Best Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay while still scoring the same nomination count as “The Descendants.”   I think the Rooney Mara nomination was the equivalent of a Best Picture nomination for this movie.

Motion capture.  It’s 2012 and the Academy still hates motion capture.  Despite winning the Golden Globe and PGA award for Best Animated Feature, “The Adventures of Tintin” was not nominated in the category at the Oscars.  And it was directed by Steven Spielberg nonetheless!  The debate rages on about whether motion capture is the death of movies and whether it is even animation to begin with.

“Project Nim.”  The favorite to win Best Documentary going into the nominations doesn’t even get a nomination – now what?

Big surprises

Nine Best Picture nominees.  I personally didn’t think the Academy would see 2011 as all that great of a year in film, but I guess I was wrong.

Best Actor.  When the nominations were read, the first name read was Demian Bichir – who really shouldn’t have been that shocking given that he was a SAG nominee.  But I thought that was all the shock we would get … and then they snubbed Michael Fassbender and threw a nomination to Gary Oldman for “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy!”  What an emotional rollercoaster (for 30 seconds).

“Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.”  It was nice that the Academy caught on and stopped announcing the nominees in alphabetical order because it really kept the suspense taut during the reading.  The graphic made it look like there would be eight nominees, and then … flying out of nowhere, it’s … “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close?!”  The movie everyone wrote off all awards season?  What a comeback!

“War Horse” comes back to life.  Some people thought it might miss out on a Best Picture nominee, but it had a strong showing today.  It netted six nominations including Best Art Direction and Best Cinematography, aspects not rewarded with nominations by their respective guilds.  Maybe there’s enough life for a craft win.

Only two nominations in Best Original Song.  So now whoever loses is ACTUALLY the loser.

Jessica Chastain.  Not for the reason you would expect – the Academy graphic when they announced her nomination was not a picture of her in “The Help,” her nominated performance, but rather in “The Tree of Life.”  Oops.

Best Picture

1. The Artist
2. The Descendants
3. The Help
4. Hugo
5. Midnight in Paris
6. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
7. War Horse
8. The Tree of Life
9. Moneyball
10. Bridesmaids

I’m feeling only six Best Picture nominees this year.  (For those who don’t know about the new rules and regulations of the category, the Best Picture field is now an elastic number of nominees between five and ten.  In order to be nominated for Best Picture, a movie needs to receive at least five percent of the number one votes.)  The top five are very obvious.

I would say “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” takes the sixth spot because it’s the only other plausible nominee with enough guild support (sorry “Bridesmaids”).  If we learned anything from 2010, it was that the guilds still win out in the end.  ”War Horse” has been far too silent on the guild front and hasn’t made nearly enough money to be a smashing success.  Plus, there’s an opportunity – and a likelihood – that they can give him another Oscar win in the Best Animated Feature category for “The Adventures of Tintin.” “The Tree of Life” has the critical support, but I don’t think that’s enough to break it into this race.  Oscar voters aren’t critics.

Best Director

1. Michel Hazanavicius, “The Artist”
2. Martin Scorsese, “Hugo”
3. Alexander Payne, “The Descendants”
4. Woody Allen, “Midnight in Paris”
5. David Fincher, “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”

The top three are rock solid locks.  Woody Allen seems very inevitable given the widespread love for his movie and that the directors have nominated him six times before.  The last slot could go any number of ways – Fincher like the DGA picked, Malick like every critic proclaimed from the rooftop, Spielberg if “War Horse” actually makes a strong showing, or maybe even Tate Taylor if they really love “The Help.”

Looking at history, the lone director slot comes when there’s a particularly unknown director for a well-liked movie: Joe Wright missing for “Atonement,” Jonathan Dayton/Valerie Faris missing for “Little Miss Sunshine,” Marc Forster missing for “Finding Neverland,” and Gary Ross for “Seabiscuit.”  So I think it’s safe to say that the vulnerable director of a leading movie is Tate Taylor.  But who gets the slot?

I would say look to the DGA, but looking over their nominees, they do a better job of picking the Best Picture five than they do picking Best Director.  So thus I glean from their slate that “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” has the strength to crack the Best Picture field, but Fincher might not necessarily show up here again.  My brain says go with Malick since lone director nominees usually represent far-out, well-directed artsy films.  But my gut says Fincher gets it, if for no other reason that Hollywood seems to have found its new anointed golden director and just wants to shower him with awards for everything.

Best Actor

1. George Clooney, “The Descendants”
2. Brad Pitt, “Moneyball”
3. Jean Dujardin, “The Artist”
4. Michael Fassbender, “Shame”
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, “J. Edgar”

Best Actor is, on the whole, a very conservative category.  Save the occasional Tommy Lee Jones for “In the Valley of Elah” or Javier Bardem for “Biutiful,” it almost always unfolds according to plan – no matter how boring that plan may be.  So yes, I still pick Michael Fassbender for “Shame” even though there has been some skepticism raised recently.  And yes, I will even defend Leonardo DiCaprio who stars in what will surely be one of the most maligned movies of 2011 to receive an Oscar nomination.  This year, he accumulated the three most important precursor nominations.  And he managed to get nominated in 2006 even when he had two performances in play.  They like him, and I think that (unfortunately) they’ll probably reward him with another nomination.

Best Actress

1. Viola Davis, “The Help”
2. Meryl Streep, “The Iron Lady”
3. Michelle Williams, “My Week with Marilyn”
4. Tilda Swinton, “We Need to Talk About Kevin”
5. Rooney Mara, “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”

Yes, even though she missed with the BFCA and SAG, I have confidence that the late surge of support for “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” can net a nomination for Rooney Mara over Glenn Close.  I don’t think “Albert Nobbs” has much buzz about it anymore, and even though they like Glenn Close, there are a lot of quotients that Mara would fill.  She’s under 30 and hasn’t been nominated before; you have to go back to 1994 to find a year where the Best Actress category was all prior nominees.  Thus, I rest my case and cross my fingers.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Christopher Plummer, “Beginners”
2. Albert Brooks, “Drive”
3. Kenneth Branagh, “My Week with Marilyn”
4. Jonah Hill, “Moneyball”
5. Armie Hammer, “J. Edgar”

I only feel sure of the top pick Plummer; the next three are fairly vulnerable; the fifth spot could go any number of ways.  I still can’t predict Nolte for “Warrior,” and maybe it’s because I can’t separate my dislike of the movie from the nomination process.  I just don’t think the performance was good, and I’m hopeful that the Academy will validate my opinion.  It could be Brad Pitt as a double nominee for “The Tree of Life;” it could be Ben Kingsley sneaking in for “Hugo;” it could be SAG nominee Armie Hammer for “J. Edgar.”  When in doubt, go with SAG, I guess.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Octavia Spencer, “The Help”
2. Berenice Bejo, “The Artist”
3. Jessica Chastain, “The Help”
4. Janet McTeer, “Albert Nobbs”
5. Shailene Woodley, “The Descendants”

Someone else suggested the Woodley comparison to Andrew Garfield’s snub for “The Social Network,” and I’m dreading that it might be the case.  But I really have a hard time picking Melissa McCarthy for a nomination, even if she was a SAG nominee.  I just don’t see it happening.  I don’t think the performance is enough of a stand-out to break the funny woman barrier at the Oscars.  The nomination could be a symbolic vote, but I think traditional performances win the day.

Best Original Screenplay

1. Midnight in Paris
2. The Artist
3. Bridesmaids
4. Win Win
5. Beginners

This category always has some surprises up its sleeve for nomination morning, so I don’t know how confident I feel picking so close to the WGA nominations.  I think “Bridesmaids” will see the prize for its remarkable awards run here, and I think “Win Win” has built up enough steam to get in too.  ”50/50″ has the WGA nom but not much else going for it.  Some say “A Separation” takes its enormous buzz and makes a showing here, but I think the drama of choice will be “Beginners.”  Just another gut feeling.

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. The Descendants
2. Moneyball
3. The Help
4. Hugo
5. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Four Best Picture nominees will be adapted, so I feel like those will make it in over some arguably “better written” or “more loved” work.  And “Moneyball” has too much acclaim and steam to ignore; it could win even if it doesn’t get a Best Picture nomination.

So that’s what I think!  What about you?  Anything you are hoping for?  Rooting against?

NOTE: Since I’ll be sitting over my computer all night, feel free to ask any questions in the comments section and I’ll give you a prompt answer!  Want to know how I feel about something?  Anything bugging you?  Something that you are DYING to know?  Sound off!

4:12 P.M.  Might as well start my predictions!  Let’s begin with the music categories.

Best Score

• Will win: Ludovic Bource, “The Artist”
• Could win: John Williams, “War Horse”

Because Bource essentially told the story of “The Artist” … but you can never have certainty with John Williams in the mix.

Best Song

• Will win: The Living Proof, “The Help”
• Could win: Masterpiece, “W.E.”

Because “The Help” is a Best Picture nominee … but you never know if they want to bring Madonna on stage.

4:40 P.M.  And the first celebrity to grace the red carpet is … Sharon Osbourne!  This calls for more predictions.

Best Foreign Film

• Will win: “A Separation”
• Could win: “In the Land of Blood and Honey”

Because “A Separation” is unanimously acclaimed as one of the best movies of the year … but you never know if they want Angelina Jolie to take the stage.

Best Animated Film

• Will win: “Rango”
• Could win: “The Adventures of Tintin”

Because “Rango” has the momentum in the first year where Pixar hasn’t had a major contender in history … but you never know if they want Steven Spielberg to take the stage.

5:00 P.M.  Time for the REAL red carpet to begin … which means time for REAL predictions!

Best Supporting Actress

• Will win: Berenice Bejo, “The Artist”
• Could win: Octavia Spencer, “The Help”

This could be where Spencer pulls away from the pack and uses the momentum from her BFCA win to coast to the podium at the Oscars. But I don’t think it will be resolved that simply – watch out for Bejo to slip in on vote splitting.

Best Supporting Actor

• Will win: Christopher Plummer, “Beginners”
• Could win: Albert Brooks, “Drive”

It’s Plummer all the way. And well deserved, too. No one is going to stop him.

5:13 P.M.  Ryan Seacrest asks, “Why are the Golden Globes fun?”  George Clooney replies, “Because people get drunk and make funny speeches.”

5:18 P.M.  Dan says he’s looking forward to the night’s festivities because of who Ricky Gervais is going to offend.  Aren’t we all?

5:20 P.M.  I see a TV spot for “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close,” which makes me excited for Friday.  Do I care that it is up for zero Golden Globes?  Answer: no.

5:25 P.M.  I see Melissa McCarthy and her husband, the air marshal!  Time for the comedy acting categories … but not before a great clip from “Bridesmaids!”

Best Actress – Musical/Comedy

• Will win: Michelle Williams, “My Week with Marilyn”
• Could win: Kristin Wiig, “Bridesmaids”

Michelle Williams, in what is definitely a dramatic performance, has the clear leg up on the competition here. A Wiig surprise could conceivably happen if only because of all the “Bridesmaids” love, but if the HFPA couldn’t be bothered to nominated Melissa McCarthy, I don’t think they’ll give the movie’s unsung hero a trophy.

Best Actor – Musical/Comedy

• Will win: Jean Dujardin, “The Artist”
• Could win: Owen Wilson, “Midnight in Paris”

I don’t see how this could go any other way – perhaps the HFPA will love “Midnight in Paris” more than “The Artist,” but it’s hard to argue that Owen Wilson gave a better performance than Dujardin. I’d also love to see a Gordon-Levitt surprise, but that’s not very likely.

5:36 P.M.  Rooney Mara has arrived, looking 100% Erica Albright and 0% Lisbeth Salander!

5:45 P.M.  Octavia Spencer is so great; I’ll be so happy if she wins.  Let’s continue with my predictions for Best Director and Best Screenplay.

Best Screenplay

• Will win: “The Descendants”
• Could win: “Midnight in Paris”

The adapted screenplay always seems to have the leg up in this category (all but two originals have won since 2000) at the Globes, which clumps all scripts together while the Academy divides. The HFPA loves Woody Allen, sure, but they usually take the brains here. I’m picking Payne and company for “The Descendants” because it seems to be the most mutually and unilaterally praised writing of the year.

Best Director

• Will win: Martin Scorsese, “Hugo”
• Could win: Michel Hazanavicius, “The Artist”

Conventional wisdom says never predict a split, but let’s not forget that the Golden Globes are celebrity butt-kissers who will do anything short of bribery – no, wait, they fell for that – to get them to the ceremony and maybe to the stage. They love Scorsese, awarding him Best Director in 2002 when his movie didn’t win Best Picture and again in 2006 when his movie did. The Globes aren’t afraid to split picture-director either; they’ve done it four times since 2000. So who knows? They have a chance to really shape the Oscar narrative here, so I’m definitely the most intrigued by the outcome of this race tonight.

5:51 P.M.  Kristen Wiig … brunette?  I see it all the time on “Saturday Night Live,” but that doesn’t make it any less strange on the red carpet.

6:00 P.M.  One hour until the show!  Here are my predictions for the dramatic acting categories:

Best Actress – Drama

• Will win: Viola Davis, “The Help”
• Could win: Meryl Streep, “The Iron Lady”

The brain says Streep, but the heart says Davis. Streep has won two Golden Globes in the last five years, but those were both in the comedy category where she ran virtually uncontested. I say that the Globes give something to “The Help” by copying the BFCA and rewarding Davis.

Best Actor – Drama

• Will win: George Clooney, “The Descendants”
• Could win: Brad Pitt, “Moneyball”

It’s another drama duel; I say advantage Clooney here because the HFPA fawned all over him this year, giving four nominations to his ailing “The Ides of March” when very few others did.  But they’ve thrown a curveball here before.

6:05 P.M.  Bérénice Bejo is so charming; it’s fun to watch her experiencing the awards circuit for the first time.

6:20 P.M.  Getting close to the show … here’s my take on Best Picture, Musical/Comedy.

Best Picture – Musical/Comedy

• Will win: “The Artist”
• Could win: “Midnight in Paris”

Maybe this is where “Midnight in Paris” begins to eat away at the lead of “The Artist.”  But I think that’s something that the guilds will have to do because the critics have drunk the Kool-Aid and are almost wholeheartedly behind this movie.

6:30 P.M.  30 minutes left, still in love with Mila Kunis … I guess I might as well do my final prediction!

Best Picture – Drama

• Will win: “The Descendants”
• Could win: “The Help”

What has a leading actor nomination, a directing nomination, and a screenplay nomination in this category? “The Ides of March” … and “The Descendants.” I take the latter, obviously. The Globes have really vacillated from year to year on what they reward in this category. Sometimes it’s the consensus critical favorite, like “The Social Network” or “Slumdog Millionaire.” Sometimes it’s bait, like “Atonement” or “The Aviator.” Sometimes it’s the movie that’s the biggest story, like “Avatar.” Each of these make the case for “The Help” or “Hugo” to break through here, but I still take Payne and “The Descendants.”

6:58 P.M.  Now it’s time to switch over to NBC!

7:01 P.M.  “So, where was I?” – Ricky Gervais.

7:02 P.M.  “Between Adam Sandler and Eddie Murphy, they played all the parts in ‘The Help!’”

7:07 P.M.  “Are you ready, Johnny … have you seen ‘The Tourist‘ yet?”  Thank God he hasn’t let up.

7:10 P.M.  Hooray for Christopher Plummer!

7:14 P.M.  Gotta love how Tina Fey was totally photobombing while they were talking about Amy Poehler.

7:20 P.M.  Gotta love improv when the teleprompter breaks … “When was the last time you did a cold reading in front of Steven Spielberg?” – Rob Lowe

7:26 P.M.  Kate Winslet wins another Golden Globe, this time on the television side.  That’s three career trophies, for those keeping score at home.

7:28 P.M.  “Hugo” and “Midnight in Paris” are the first Best Picture nominees to be presented … winners?

7:33 P.M.  Jeremy Irons is seriously creepy with his hand rubbing the president of the HFPA’s shoulder.

7:35 P.M.  “You don’t need to thank your family who have done nothing for this; just thank two, your agent and God.” – Ricky Gervais

7:35 P.M.  “She defacated in a sink – which is probably much less demeaning than what most of you have done to get in show business.” – Ricky Gervais on Melissa McCarthy

7:45 P.M.  Jimmy Fallon has a whole lot of energy…

7:46 P.M.  That’s one for “The Artist!”  A well deserved win for Best Score!

7:50 P.M.  Called it, should have predicted it … they definitely just wanted Madonna up on stage.  Best Song winners at the Golden Globes have a pretty dismal track record at the Oscars though.  Since 2004, only ONE winner has even been nominated at the Academy Awards!

8:00 P.M.  “Hello, I’m Seth Rogen and I’m currently trying to conceal a massive erection [while standing next to Kate Beckinsale].”

8:02 P.M.  A well-deserved win for Michelle Williams, but I’m glad Seth Rogen called out the movie for being “a side-splitting comedy.”  Loved the shout-out to her daughter in the speech.

8:04 P.M.  Shout out to Steven Flores who aired his disgust with Madonna winning.  Here’s my question: where were the Muppets?

8:09 P.M.  Miles Finch!

8:11 P.M.  I googled Martin Henderson for you.

8:12 P.M.  Gotta love George Clooney being so playful with Brad Pitt.  ”I have to return the cane otherwise he can’t make it to the bar.”

8:14 P.M.  Hooray for “Tintin!”  Glad I was wrong!

8:15 P.M.  Who would have thought Spielberg would be giving a speech for “The Adventures of Tintin” as opposed to “War Horse” a few months ago?  Gotta love how conventional wisdom turns out so wrong sometimes.

8:23 P.M.  WOW!  YES!  WOODY ALLEN FOR “MIDNIGHT IN PARIS!!!!!!!!!”  ON WE GO TO THE OSCARS!

8:27 P.M.  ^ Could not be happier to be wrong!  I guess with this and the BFCA win, we can sew up this category for Woody!

8:33 P.M.  And Best Foreign Film goes to “A Separation.”  We have our Oscar front-runner, and it’s looking pretty unstoppable.

8:35 P.M.  I’d like to point out that Claire Danes has now also won three Golden Globes.  Yes, that’s as many as Kate Winslet.

8:47 P.M.  It’s Octavia Spencer!  Looks like she’s headed full steam ahead for an Oscar!!

8:49 P.M.  Classy speech, clutch quote of MLK.  Would have liked to have heard more substance and fewer names to help her make the case for an Oscar.

8:56 P.M.  A fitting standing ovation for a living legend, Sidney Poitier.

9:03 P.M.  Good heavens, Morgan Freeman has been in so many incredible movies.  And has been incredible in nearly all of them.  Just wow.

9:10 P.M.  Ricky Gervais has been much too tame, and absent.

9:13 P.M.  What’s with Best Director being presented before acting awards now?  I don’t like it.

9:14 P.M.  Called Scorsese.  I know have to wonder if “The Artist” is at risk now; Hazanavicius is for sure.  The DGA is going to make a huge difference now in the Best Picture race.  Maybe it’s a split year?  Who knows?!

9:16 P.M.  Looks like someone just pulled a Melissa Leo…

9:25 P.M.  Jean Dujardin, very nice.

9:27 P.M.  A very nice speech considering that he doesn’t speak English!  I loved the Douglas Fairbanks bit at the end!  And I could get used to hearing this theme all awards season.

9:34 P.M.  “What you don’t know about [Colin Firth] is that he’s extremely racist.” – Ricky Gervais

9:35 P.M.  Meryl Streep!  Wow, this is going to make for a very interesting year in Best Actress!

9:39 P.M.  “When Ricky Gervais’ deal fell through and they came to me to play Margaret Thatcher…” followed by a bleeped-out curse … followed by her listing off every single female performance of the year except Michelle Williams … followed by George Clooney passing up her glasses … followed by her referring to Harvey Weinstein as “God” and “The Punisher” … followed by music … followed by a shout out to Viola Davis.  If this wasn’t Meryl Streep, this would bode ill for her Oscar chances.

9:41 P.M.  Best Picture for “The Artist.”  Onto the Oscars, maybe … not if unenthused Piper Perabo has anything to say about it.

9:43 P.M.  OH MY GOD UGGIE!!!!!!!!!  Ok, I’m sold.  This can win Best Picture if the dog gets to come on stage.

9:48 P.M.  And I’m still in love with Natalie Portman…

9:48 P.M.  George Clooney!  If it couldn’t be Fassbender, then definitely him!

9:50 P.M.  A very nice but short speech, very poised.  With this and BFCA, I think we can seal this race for him.

9:56 P.M.  And the main challenger for “The Artist” is … “The Descendants!”

9:57 P.M.  Now THIS makes for an interesting race!  Especially if “The Help” takes the SAG ensemble like most expect it to, we could be looking at a 2006 scenario where three movies have a legitimate claim to be called the favorite.  WOOHOO OSCAR SEASON!

9:59 P.M.  Well, folks, that ends my coverage.  ”The Artist” ruled the night with three wins; “The Descendants” and “The Help” were close behind with two victories each.  ”Hugo” took Best Director and “Midnight in Paris” took screenplay, making a number of categories nail-biters up until the envelope is opened at the Kodak Theater!

“The funny thing about winning an Academy Award is that this will always be synonymous with my name from here on in.  It will be Oscar-winner George Clooney, Sexiest Man Alive 1997, Batman died in a freak accident…”

- George Clooney accepting the Academy Award for “Syriana,” 2006

“I grew up in a place called Alcobendas where this was not a very realistic dream.  And always on the night of the Academy Awards, I stayed up to watch the show.  And I always felt that this ceremony was a moment of unity for the world because art – in any form – is, has been, and will always be our universal language.”

- Penélope Cruz accepting the Academy Award for “Vicky Cristina Barcelona,” 2009

“Did I really earn this, or did I just wear y’all down?”

- Sandra Bullock accepting the Academy Award for “The Blind Side,” 2010

Why the Oscars?  Why the attention?

I had planned a whole, in-depth analysis here … but then I got sick today.  I want to get something up, so let me lead off with this: the Oscars are about setting the tone for an industry.  It’s about making and rewarding careers.  It’s about celebrating the best of an industry.  It’s about capturing a moment in time, reminding future generations of what the year meant to those who lived through it.

Revised Predictions

Best Picture

1. The Artist
2. The Descendants
3. The Help
4. War Horse
5. Midnight in Paris
6. Hugo
7. Moneyball
8. The Tree of Life
9. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
10. Bridesmaids

As far as I’m concerned, the top six aren’t going to change.  ”Moneyball” may or may not make it in, given the passion for the movie that may or may not exist.  And “The Tree of Life” could sneak in as the top choice of many voters, but I don’t feel comfortable predicting that, nor do I think the late surge of “Dragon Tattoo” love will translate into a Best Picture nomination.

Now, onto the state of the race. It looks like 2008 all over again in the Oscar race.  The little movie that could then was “Slumdog Millionaire.”  It was a consensus critical favorite and won the BFCA (Critic’s Choice), then trumped the more conventional Globes play “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” in the drama category, and capped off its all-around sweep by taking the SAG ensemble prize without having any big stars to boast … and then pretty much every guild too just for fun.  You could say “Button” or “Milk” posed a serious threat – and “The Dark Knight” might have been a formidable foe had it not been snubbed – but everyone knew it was “Slumdog” all the way.

Similarly, in 2011, the oh-so-typical Oscar movie yet anything BUT typical “The Artist” looks about ready to lap the competition.  It’s been the critical darling of the year but doen’t have the unanimity that “The Social Network” had last year.  Thus, it has become their gentle suggestion of the best movie of the year, not like the mandate that backfired last year.  It has been scoring everywhere it needs to score – a field-leading 11 nominations at the Critics Choice Awards including Best Picture (which it will most likely win), a field-leading 6 nominations at the Golden Globes including Best Picture, and 3 nominations at the SAG Awards including Best Ensemble.  Now all it needs to do is start winning things to make it undeniable.

Running closely behind is Alexander Payne’s “The Descendants,” which looks to be the “Milk” of 2011 as it seems to be the favorite for both the Best Actor and Best Adapted Screenplay trophies.  It could win Best Picture; indeed, it seems likely to win Best Picture in the drama category at the Golden Globes.  But in a year where nostalgia and an old-fashioned yearning for movies to take us out of our misery – not face it – could hurt this movie which is already burdened by comparisons to Payne’s last film, “Sideways.”

Then again, having a virtual monopoly on the brain vote may help “The Descendants” because the heart vote is being tugged in a number of directions.  ”The Help” makes a big case as it’s a period piece (Oscars love the past), it’s a feel-good movie (“The King’s Speech” won last year), it has real audience support ($169 million), and it has the actors behind it.  Davis and Spencer are both serious threats to win their categories, and I would definitely consider “The Help” to be the favorite for the coveted SAG ensemble prize.  Given how well-acted the movie is down to its core, this may be the movie that rallies the biggest branch of the Academy.  But if “The Artist” wins that award, I would consider the race to be pretty much over.

There’s also the case to be made for “Hugo,” which harkens back to the pioneering days of moviemaking, and “War Horse,” which reminds all who see it of the weepy sentimentality and soaring scopes of a John Ford picture.  But with neither making blockbuster cash and neither getting a single nomination from the SAG, it’s really hard to see either mounting a serious threat.  It’s particularly problematic for “War Horse” as it missed a Best Director nomination for Spielberg at the Globes and a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination with the WGA.  Spielberg’s legendary status will likely get him into the Best Director field at the Oscars, but not having a screenplay nomination will be problematic.  Not since “Titanic” in 1997 has a movie won Best Picture without having a nominated screenplay, and only once in the last 10 years did the Best Picture winner not also win a Best Screenplay Oscar.

The acting thing is also an issue as it’s pretty rare for a movie to win Best Picture without an acting nomination.  The last time two times it happened was with “Slumdog Millionaire” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” – both of which had the actors’ support as shown by their wins in the SAG ensemble category yet were consensus favorites anyways.  The nomination may be the prize for these movies.

As a final word on the category, don’t count out “Midnight in Paris.”  It’s been flying under the radar, but it could win Best Picture in the comedy category at the Golden Globes.  Woody Allen has won the category twice before, and this is his tenth film nominated for Best Picture overall.  It’s also his fifth Best Director nomination and sixth Best Screenplay nomination.  All this talk about career rewards for Spielberg and Scorsese need to be equally focused on Woody Allen.  The movie has scored with the SAG, PGA, and WGA – so there’s no reason to take this movie lightly.

Best Director

1. Michel Hazanavicius, “The Artist”
2. Alexander Payne, “The Descendants”
3. Martin Scorsese, “Hugo”
4. Steven Spielberg, “War Horse”
5. Woody Allen, “Midnight in Paris”

It’s never wise to predict a split Picture-Director ticket … even when the director is as widely regarded as David Fincher, who may come into play as a dark horse for “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.”  But in my mind, the top four is set with Hazanavicius, Payne, Scorsese, and Spielberg, who were all BFCA nominees (and all but Spielberg were HFPA nominees).  Woody Allen, to me, seems like the logical fifth nominee.  The director’s branch has nominated him six times, four of which were not a complement to a Best Picture nomination.  They like him, even when they don’t like his movie.  While Terrence Malick may have crafted a more ambitious, director-driven movie, I still don’t see them opting for him over Allen.

Best Actor

1. George Clooney, “The Descendants”
2. Brad Pitt, “Moneyball”
3. Jean Dujardin, “The Artist”
4. Michael Fassbender, “Shame”
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, “J. Edgar”

The top three are locked in after getting nominations from the BFCA, SAG, and HFPA.  Fassbender can’t be put in the same category since he missed with the SAG, the group with the most overlap with Academy voters, but he seems pretty safe given that the nomination would be a reward for his ubiquity just as much as his performance.  In addition, physical commitment to a role always plays well with the actors branch; see nominations for James Franco in “127 Hours” and Mickey Rourke in “The Wrestler” as proof.  ”Last Tango in Paris,” another controversial NC-17 film, received a nomination for its leading actor back in 1973.   However, his name was Marlon Brando.

Leonardo DiCaprio, after garnering notices from all three of the major groups, would normally be considered a lock.  But here’s my hangup on predicting him: this is a category that almost always requires a quality movie behind a quality performance.  You have to look back to ten years ago when you saw a movie with a Rotten Tomatoes score below 70% – “Ali” at 67% and “I Am Sam” at a staggeringly (and unfairly) low 34%.  ”J. Edgar” currently stands at 42% on the review aggregator. Not since 2005 has anyone with nominations for BFCA, SAG, and HFPA missed an Oscar nomination in this category, and that was previous winner Russell Crowe who was up this time for “Cinderella Man.”  It also happened to Paul Giamatti for “Sideways” in 2004, the victim of Clint Eastwood coming out of nowhere and scoring a nomination thanks to the rising tide of “Million Dollar Baby.”

But if DiCaprio misses, who gets in?  Ryan Gosling is having a great year but his two performances could cancel each other out, and neither “Drive” nor “The Ides of March” seem to have much momentum.  There isn’t consensus either on which is the more deserving performance; BFCA nominated him for “Drive” while HFPA nominated him for “The Ides of March.” I feel like this is prime territory for a dark horse candidate to rise … but who will it be?  Michael Shannon for “Take Shelter?”  Joseph Gordon-Levitt for “50/50?”  Woody Harrelson for “Rampart?”  Or will SAG nominee, but still underdog, Demian Bichir capitalize on the actor’s love for his work in “A Better Life?”  Unfortunately, there’s not much opportunity for any of these candidates to gain traction in the race, so you either go smart and pick Leo here or go with a hunch.

Best Actress

1. Viola Davis, “The Help”
2. Meryl Streep, “The Iron Lady”
3. Michelle Williams, “My Week with Marilyn”
4. Tilda Swinton, “We Need to Talk About Kevin”
5. Rooney Mara, “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”

For the past 15 years, the SAG field has provided a clue to at least 4 of the 5 eventual nominees for Best Actress at the Oscars.  The top four in the field – Davis, Streep, Williams, and Swinton – have all scored nominations from the BFCA, SAG, and HFPA.  Then, the plot thickens. The way I see it, there are three actresses competing for that final slot.  History says go with the SAG nominee, which is Glenn Close in “Albert Nobbs.”  But Charlize Theron is also a threat for “Young Adult” after cracking the field for both the BFCA and HFPA.

And I definitely don’t think anyone can count out Golden Globe nominee Rooney Mara for “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.”  People sensed the passion wasn’t there for this film, but it’s been stealthily building a healthy résumé throughout the season.  It was one of the top ten movies for the National Board of Review and the American Film Institute; this week, it was nominated by both the Producers Guild and the Writers Guild.

The movie has supporters where “Albert Nobbs,” which currently sits at 50% on Rotten Tomatoes, has few. But love from producers, directors, and critics doesn’t provide any direct aid to Mara, who must be nominated by her peers in the acting branch of the Academy.  They may be more inclined to vote for Glenn Close because she’s a five-time nominee who worked tirelessly for three decades to get this story on screen, whereas Mara is making her first big splash (and will likely have two other chances to be nominated for this role) and Theron seems to have had her moment in the sun.

Here’s an interesting mini-trend I’ve picked up on: since 2003, only once has the Academy not included an actress under the age of 30 in the field.  Michelle Williams is now 31, so only Mara (or dark horses Felicity Jones and Elizabeth Olsen) fills this new quotient.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Christopher Plummer, “Beginners”
2. Kenneth Branagh, “My Week with Marilyn”
3. Albert Brooks, “Drive”
4. Jonah Hill, “Moneyball”
5. Brad Pitt, “The Tree of Life”

At once, this is the most solid and the most fluctuating race this year.  The frontrunner still is – and has been since June – Christopher Plummer for his incredible turn in “Beginners.”  I don’t really think anyone else has a prayer because this is both a sentimental, Lifetime Achievement Oscar (think Morgan Freeman and Alan Arkin) and a consensus pick (think Tim Robbins and Javier Bardem).  Of course, this assumes that he will steamroll to wins from the BFCA, SAG, and HFPA, a scenario which I think is incredibly likely.

Branagh is the only other sure-fire nominee after scoring nominations from all three of the big organizations thus far.  Brooks also seems pretty secure, although the SAG omission raises some eyebrows since the Oscars have matched the SAG five in this category for the past two years.  I would also say that given the support for “Moneyball,” Jonah Hill seems like a decent bet after SAG and HFPA nominations.  It’s that very support and presence that I think is the X-factor for him and perhaps the nail in the coffin for Nick Nolte, whose movie “Warrior” is totally absent on the precursor scene.

As for that final slot, I’m going gusty and saying it will be Brad Pitt in “The Tree of Life.”  I don’t see why this performance can’t ride in on the coattails of his sure-fire nominated one in “Moneyball.”  And it would make Pitt both a competitor and a co-star of Jonah Hill; how awesome would that be?  Dark horse nominees, unnoticed by the big three organizations, happen in this category – look to Michael Shannon in “Revolutionary Road,” William Hurt in “A History of Violence,” Alan Alda in “The Aviator,” Djimon Hounsou in “In America.”  But this is a gusty pick; smart money always goes the SAG five.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Berenice Bejo, “The Artist”
2. Octavia Spencer, “The Help”
3. Jessica Chastain, “The Help”
4. Janet McTeer, “Albert Nobbs”
5. Shailene Woodley, “The Descendants”

BFCA/HFPA/SAG only agreed on Bejo, Spencer, and Chastain.  This is the only category where, to my knowledge, getting all three of these nominations does not ensure a nomination.  Last year, Mila Kunis missed for “Black Swan,” and Cameron Diaz missed in 2001 for “Vanilla Sky.”  It happens, although I’d say that that was more of a character judgement disapproving of some of their other, non-Academy friendly projects.  None of these actresses seem to be at risk for a similar fate.

I’d call Bejo the frontrunner because there might be some vote-splitting for the scene-stealing Spencer and the year-stealing ubiquitous Chastain.  If Viola Davis emerges as the one to beat for Best Actress, I would guess that the urgency to reward one of the ladies of “The Help” here will go down.

The race gets murkier beyond that, though, as the three organizations differed on how to fill those final two slots.  BFCA went Melissa McCarthy in “Bridesmaids” and Shailene Woodley in “The Descendants” (they nominate six, so Carey Mulligan was also in there for “Shame”).  SAG went McCarthy and Janet McTeer in “Albert Nobbs.”  HFPA went Woodley and McTeer.  Again, the rule is usually to follow SAG … but I just don’t think Melissa McCarthy can manage a nomination because comedic actresses just aren’t usually the Academy’s cup of tea.  I think the only precedent is Robert Downey Jr. being nominated for “Tropic Thunder,” but that was a lot more daring and probing of a performance.  McCarthy just – drains her plumbing in a sink.

McTeer disappears in her role (so I’ve heard) and Woodley is in the #2 movie of the year.  I think those are my other two.

Best Original Screenplay

1. Midnight in Paris
2. The Artist
3. Bridesmaids
4. Win Win
5. 50/50

Here is where I think the surprising “Bridesmaids” love – among the top movies feted by the AFI, SAG, HPFA, PGA, and WGA – will register.  It’s a well-written movie where the comedy is so heavily in the dialogue and the plot; while Apatow movies have yet to show up here, there has to be a first time for everything.

“Midnight in Paris” and “The Artist” are slam-dunk nominees destined to duke it out until the end, unless “The Artist” just pulls away and can’t be stopped.  I hope the WGA nominees “Win Win” and “50/50″ translate their success there into Oscar nominations, but this category could go a number of directions.  It’s hard to imagine that they would spring for a slate of five comedic nominees, but it could very well happen.

There’s a chance that “The Tree of Life,” thinly plotted as it is, will show up here.  ”Beginners” is also an option; “Margin Call” could surprise.  It was a very good year for original screenplays, so many things are fair game.

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. The Descendants
2. Moneyball
3. The Help
4. Hugo
5. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

“The Descendants” is about to lap the field here; barring a huge surge for “Moneyball” (which would make Aaron Sorkin a back-to-back winner), I don’t see anything standing between Alexander Payne and a second Academy Award win in this category.

As for the rest of the field, it’s kind of a mess.  I went with the WGA five here, which subbed the surging “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” for the sagging “War Horse.”  (Funny enough, that would make Steven Zaillian nominee again in the category – the Oscars are seeing double this year!)

I think Tate Taylor, who will most likely miss for Best Director, can earn a nomination here for his work adapting “The Help.”

And while “Hugo” is a director’s movie, I don’t see why hot scribe John Logan (who also penned “Rango” and “Coriolanus” this year) can’t score a nomination.

“Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy,” ineligible at the WGA, could also sneak in for a nomination given its labyrinthine plot.  But given its total radio silence during the season, I’m seeing that as a long shot at best.

Tune in this time next week for my LIVE BLOGGING of the Golden Globes!

1. The Artist
2. War Horse
3. Midnight in Paris
4. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
5. The Descendants
6. The Help
7. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
8. Moneyball
9. Hugo
10. The Tree of Life

If we thought 2010 was a year that people most needed cinema to make them feel good, 2011 looks to be even more so.  That’s why it just seems right for a movie like ‘The Artist” to sweep in and take Best Picture.  It’s got the happy factor, the B&W factor, the silent film factor, and the nostalgia factor all going for it.  I have yet to see it, but even if I were somehow not to like it, I could still be content with this winning Best Picture because it would affirm the power of the prize.  When they reward risky, out-of-the-box movies, Hollywood responds by thinking even more creatively.  When they reward movies like “The King’s Speech,” studios start focus grouping the hell out of their contenders to perfectly calculate Oscar success.

There are other narratives to reckon with too, however.  Perennial Oscar favorite Steven Spielberg charges back onto the scene with “War Horse,” which coupled with box office success could wallop a hard knockout punch.  If audiences and critics decide it’s “Saving Private Ryan” good, I’ll have to seriously reevaluate.  Then there’s also Woody Allen’s “Midnight in Paris,” the biggest hit ever from the workhorse director.  It’s fun and funny while still making you think – the best of both Oscar worlds, if you will.  Right now, I can’t see Best Picture going to any other movie than these three.

However, don’t count out “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close.”  It has yet to screen for anyone, but that’s one heck of a book.  The delay makes pundits uneasy, but with AMPAS golden boy Stephen Daldry at the helm, Eric Roth with the pen, and a Tom Hanks-Sandra Bullock combo on screen, this would have to be a total bomb not to score with them.

I also expect “The Help” and “The Descendants” to find enough of a base of support to garner a nomination.  And I can’t help but feel that people are severely underestimating “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.”  It’s David Fincher.

On the fringe, though, are three movies that could easily break into the field – Martin Scorsese’s “Hugo,” Bennett Miller’s “Moneyball,” and Terrence Malick’s “The Tree of Life.”  Each have their weaknesses, so we’ll just have to see how they hold up through precursor season.  That’s the fun of it!

Best Director

1. Steven Spielberg, “War Horse”
2. Woody Allen, “Midnight in Paris”
3. Michael Hazanavicius, “The Artist”
4. Stephen Daldry, “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”
5. Alexander Payne, “The Descendants”

Here’s where ballot manipulation will start to muddle the waters.  Michael Hazanavicius, director of “The Artist,” is largely unknown, but Harvey Weinstein will have him making rounds on the circuit to cure lack of name recognition.  He got Tom Hooper a win last year at the expense of widely renowned David Fincher.  If “The Artist” appears headed for a sweep, it will have to take this category too.

But if “The Artist” and “War Horse” have the same group of fans, I see it likely that they honor the latter by voting for the iconic director to take home his third Academy Award for Best Director.  Woody Allen could also benefit from his legendary status, although I would bet they tip their hat to “Midnight in Paris” in the writing categories.  (As for the other two nominees, it’s never smart to bet against Payne or Daldry.)

Best Actor

1. George Clooney, “The Descendants”
2. Jean Dujardin, “The Artist”
3. Brad Pitt, “Moneyball”
4. Michael Fassbender, “Shame”
5. Michael Shannon, “Take Shelter”

Can the “he’s a leading man, not a supporting actor” logic prevail to give George Clooney another Oscar?  I think that’s going to be the message from Fox Searchlight, and the starpower may be their only weapon to fend off the irresistible Jean Dujardin in “The Artist.”  I suspect it may already be down to these two, and wouldn’t it be exciting if we had another showdown like Penn-Rourke in 2008?

Meanwhile, I’m starting to think Brad Pitt is a lock for “Moneyball,” and Michael Fassbender’s daring performance in “Shame” will likely pick up some steam with release and exposure (no pun intended).  As for that final slot, I’m going daring and choosing Michael Shannon, who apparently turns in a very flashy performance in “Take Shelter” that I think might overpower Gary Oldman’s purportedly understated work in “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy.”  But we’ll just have to see.

Best Actress

1. Meryl Streep, “The Iron Lady”
2. Rooney Mara, “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
3. Viola Davis, “The Help”
4. Michelle Williams, “My Week with Marilyn”
5. Glenn Close, “Albert Nobbs”

My gut tells me that Streep will take the day here and win her first Oscar in 30 years.  The role is baity enough, the time is right, we may have never appreciated Meryl more.  But the fact that the film won’t open to audiences until next year makes it hard to gain audience support.

That’s why her biggest competitors may be two women headlining huge commercial vehicles, Rooney Mara in “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” and Viola Davis in “The Help.”  While Davis has Oprah and a sentimental vote behind her, Mara may be a huge threat because Lisbeth Salander is an intense, grueling role that demands a tremendous amount of physical commitment.  And let’s not forget that Oscar likes his leading women young.

Michelle Williams could make a big surge if “My Week with Marilyn” becomes an audience favorite with expansion.  Ditto for Charlize Theron in “Young Adult,” who has been left off the charts in favor of Glenn Close in “Albert Nobbs.”  If it weren’t for her name and her passion for the project, I would have chosen Theron or Elizabeth Olsen in “Martha Marcy May Marlene” for that final slot.  But Roadside Attractions is going to need to work overtime to revive the Streep vs. Close dialectic this month because it died rather quickly.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Christopher Plummer, “Beginners”
2. Patton Oswalt, “Young Adult”
3. Max von Sydow, “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”
4. Jonah Hill, “Moneyball”
5. Ben Kingsley, “Hugo”

I have absolutely no idea what to make of this field as everyone, except Plummer, could be totally out by next week.  Could the sentimental lifetime achievement faction of the Oscar voters shamelessly bare their teeth to honor the 81-year-old star?  At this point, that’s my best guess.  However, there could be another emerging storyline that will take over the Oscar narrative.

Could the lifetime achievement award be, in fact, for Max von Sydow in “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close?”  I see it as extremely likely given that the movie definitely needs one acting nomination with the talent involved, and Bullock could end up falling off the radar.  Patton Oswalt in “Young Adult” could make a case for funnymen who don’t typically do very well in the category.

My last two picks are just educated guesses, more just flinging mud at the wall than anything.  If “Moneyball” is a homerun with Academy voters, Jonah Hill could find himself on base in the category.  Same with Ben Kingsley in “Hugo,” who seems to be emerging late as a serious contender, particularly if the critical masses adoring Scorsese’s latest sound off loudly for him and the movie.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Bérénice Bejo, “The Artist”
2. Octavia Spencer, “The Help”
3. Sandra Bullock, “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”
4. Shailene Woodley, “The Descendants”
5. Carey Mulligan, “Shame”

I’m counting on big love for “The Artist” to make the unknown Bérénice Bejo an Academy Award winner.  Again, she has to battle unknown status, but her biggest challenger will likely be another unknown, Octavia Spencer in “The Help.”  Since “The Artist” is much more likely to take home the big prize, I think Bejo is more likely to ride on her film’s coattails to victory.  I’d hate to demean her with the term tack-on, but think Jennifer Connelly winning for “A Beautiful Mind” and Catherine Zeta-Jones winning for “Chicago.”  To justify Best Picture, maybe voters will decide it needs an acting win as well.

Two years after winning Best Actress for “The Blind Side,” Sandra Bullock looks to factor back into the Oscar scheme for “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.”  If Von Sydow isn’t showy enough, look for her to make a big rise simply due to the power associated with her name.  On the other hand, you have someone like Shailene Woodley who will likely ride in on the strength of her performance and the strength of her movie.  I don’t quite think her CV, consisting almost entirely of ABC Family’s “The Secret Life of the American Teenager,” is going to impress many voters.

For that last slot, I’ve picked Carey Mulligan in “Shame” over the much heralded performance of Vanessa Redgrave in “Coriolanus.”  I will most likely look back and call myself an idiot, but I just get the sinking sensation that people are not taking her seriously enough.  She reportedly bares it all, literally and figuratively, in a role that showcases the talents that wooed voters two years ago in “An Education.”  But just like last year, the picture is very, very unclear.

Best Original Screenplay

1. Midnight in Paris
2. The Artist
3. Young Adult
4. Win Win
5. Martha Marcy May Marlene

It’s really a shame that even with the number of really impressive original screenplays this year, the Academy will likely settle for standard fare. I’m still counting on golden boy Woody Allen to pull through here, but if “The Artist” is poised for a sweep, I don’t see how it can not take an award for its writing.  Only three films in the past decade have taken Best Picture without a win in the Screenplay category.

As for the rest of the field, it could fall any number of ways.  I’d say the safest third slot would be for “Young Adult,” which is written by 2007 winner Diablo Cody.  But as for those last two movies, I just picked two of my favorites from this year in the prayer that they have a chance.  I can dream, can’t I?

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. The Descendants
2. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
3. War Horse
4. Moneyball
5. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Scribe Alexander Payne is an Academy darling, winner in 2004 for his adaptation of “Sideways” as well as nominee in 1999 for his work on the script for “Election.”  I think until otherwise informed, it’s not smart to bet against him.

But there are plenty of other Oscar winners vying for glory here.  Eric Roth, winner for “Forrest Gump” and nominee for three other films, is in the race with “Extremely Loud and Incredible Close.”  Jonathan Safran Foer’s book is quite eccentric and would be a quite a challenge to adapt; even if the movie doesn’t quite hit home with the Academy, I see a nomination here as practically inevitable.  ”War Horse” is written by two previous nominees, and while the writing seems to be a lesser component of the movie, a nomination seems assured.

“Moneyball” is written by last year’s winner, Aaron Sorkin, as well as Steven Zaillian, winner in 1993 for his work on “Schindler’s List.”  Zaillian could even pull double duty as a nominee as I’m predicting, on a whim, that his adaptation of “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” will also factor into the race.

5:02 P.M. Alright, here are my picks for the tech categories:

• Best Art Direction
  • Will win: “The King’s Speech“
  • Could win: “True Grit“
  • Should win: “Inception“
  • Should be nominated: ”Black Swan“
• Best Costume Design
  • Will win: “The King’s Speech“
  • Could win: “True Grit“
  • Should win: “True Grit“
  • Should be nominated: “Black Swan“
• Best Cinematography
  • Will win: “Inception“
  • Could win: “True Grit“
  • Should win: “Black Swan“
  • Should be nominated: “127 Hours“
• Best Film Editing
  • Will win: “The Social Network“
  • Could win: “The King’s Speech“
  • Should win: “127 Hours“
  • Should be nominated: “Inception“
• Best Makeup
  • Will win: “The Wolfman“
  • Could win: “Barney’s Version”
  • Should win: “Barney’s Version”
  • Should be nominated: “Black Swan“
• Best Original Score
  • Will win: “The King’s Speech“
  • Could win: “The Social Network“
  • Should win: “The Social Network“
  • Should be nominated: “Black Swan” (despite being ineligible)
• Best Original Song
  • Will win: “We Belong Together” from “Toy Story 3“
  • Could win: “If I Rise” from “127 Hours“
  • Should win: “I See The Light” from “Tangled“
  • Should be nominated: “African Child” from “Get Him to the Greek“
• Best Visual Effects
  • Will win: “Inception“
  • Could win: “Alice in Wonderland”
  • Should win: “Inception“
  • Should be nominated: “TRON Legacy“
• Best Sound Mixing
  • Will win: “Inception“
  • Could win: “The Social Network“
  • Should win: “Inception“
  • Should be nominated: “Black Swan“
• Best Sound Editing
  • Will win: “Inception“
  • Could win: “True Grit“
  • Should win: “Inception“
  • Should be nominated: “127 Hours“

5:20 P.M. Red carpet update: Jennifer Lawrence and Mila Kunis look SMOKING hot.  Hailee Steinfeld’s tutu is a little unfortunate.  Onto some of the other non-major categories, most of which don’t even get more than a winner pick.

• Best Animated Film – honestly, why bother to nominate a movie other than “Toy Story 3?”
• Best Foreign Film – conventional wisdom says not to pick the Golden Globe winner or the one you might have heard of, so I’m going with Canada’s “Incendies.”
• Best Documentary – they could be hipster and go with “Exit Through the Gift Shop,” but my money is on “Inside Job” for a much deserved win.
• Best Short Film (Animated) – No idea how to predict the shorts.  My guess is on “Day and Night” because everyone saw it.
• Best Short Film (Live Action) – “God of Love” sounds like a winner.
• Best Short Film (Documentary) – “Poster Girl” sounds good.

5:27 P.M. Amy Adams and Michelle Williams, usually good looking, fell flat.  Bummer.  Here are some more major picks.

• Best Original Screenplay
  • Will win: “The King’s Speech“
  • Could win: “Inception“
  • Should win: “Inception“
  • Should be nominated: “Black Swan“

I think given the overwhelming momentum for “The King’s Speech” and the story of its screenwriter, David Seidler, this is a pretty easy victory to call.  ”Inception” after winning the WGA probably comes in a close second.

• Best Adapted Screenplay
  • Will win: “The Social Network“
  • Could win: “True Grit“
  • Should win: “The Social Network“
  • Should be nominated: “Rabbit Hole“

As close to a no-brainer as 2010 can give us.  Aaron Sorkin will almost certainly walk away with an Oscar for the best script in recent memory and provide at least one statue for “The Social Network.”

• Best Supporting Actor
  • Will win: Christian Bale, “The Fighter“
  • Could win: Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech“
  • Should win: Christian Bale, “The Fighter“
  • Should be nominated: Andrew Garfield, “The Social Network“

Given the overwhelming Bale love throughout the season, he should be able to overcome Rush in a sweep scenario.  It also helps that Bale has no Oscar and Rush does.  I’ll still be biting my nails for this, but I feel confident with this pick.

• Best Supporting Actress
  • Will win: Hailee Steinfeld, “True Grit“
  • Could win: Melissa Leo, “The Fighter“
  • Should win: Amy Adams, “The Fighter“
  • Should be nominated: Barbara Hershey, “Black Swan“

The category, as it often does, provides as much suspense as the show can give us.  Honestly, anyone but Jacki Weaver could win.  Carter could ride the coattails of “The King’s Speech” to victory, and Adams could win for being the best.  Smart money is probably on Leo, who has won most of the big precursors leading up to Oscar night.  But with 10 nominations for “True Grit,” the Academy clearly has to give something to the movie.  This is an easy way for them to do that, and the Academy did this with Tilda Swinton in 2007 for “Michael Clayton.”

5:42 P.M. Here comes leading acting categories…

• Best Actor
  • Will win: Colin Firth,”The King’s Speech“
  • Could win: Jesse Eisenberg, “The Social Network“
  • Should win: James Franco, “127 Hours“
  • Should be nominated: Aaron Eckhart, “Rabbit Hole“

Firth seems like a lock.  Eisenberg could take it in an Adrien Brody/”The Pianist” scenario, but that’s a long shot at best.

• Best Actress
  • Will win: Natalie Portman, “Black Swan“
  • Could win: Annette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right“
  • Should win: Natalie Portman, “Black Swan“
  • Should be nominated: Julianne Moore, “The Kids Are All Right“

If Natalie Portman doesn’t win, the Academy is going to have to work BIG TIME in the next few years to regain my respect.  This is the performance of a lifetime, and if they don’t reward it, I’m going to be furious.  Annette Bening could win on the conservative theme of the year, but I’m still confident in Natalie Portman.  I think they realize that Bening wasn’t THAT good…

6:45 P.M. Just dined and then changed into my “The Social Network” T-shirt.  For reference, I was wearing my “I Kept My Eyes Open for 127 Hours” T-shirt beforehand.  Here’s my pick for Best Director:

• Best Director
  • Will win: David Fincher, “The Social Network“
  • Could win: Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech“
  • Should win: Darren Aronofsky, “Black Swan“
  • Should be nominated: Christopher Nolan, “Inception“

Another shaky category.  Sure, Tom Hooper won the DGA, but that membership is made up of mainly TV directors.  Of course they want to reward Hooper, one of their own.  The Oscars embraced Roman Polanski, a prickly director indeed, in 2002 over DGA winner Rob Marshall, whose “Chicago” went on to win Best Picture.  It doesn’t seem wise to predict a split as most Academy voters don’t think that the Best Picture directs itself.  But I have a feeling that the voters took a step back and asked what the best directed movie of the year was, and they probably knew the name of the director that undertook the job.

Then again, Hooper and Fincher could split votes, making the way for Aronofsky to win, much like in 2000 when Soderbergh eked out a victory over Ang Lee and Ridley Scott for “Traffic.”  But I’m counting on Fincher riding to victory, making “The Social Network” the third movie to win Best Editing, Best Screenplay, and Best Director without Best Picture.

6:50 P.M. Sandra Bullock has had some MAJOR work done to her face.  No other big red carpet arrivals to blow me away with the exception of Penelope Cruz.  Jennifer Lawrence is still tops.

Without further ado, here are my thoughts on Best Picture:

• Best Picture
  • Will win: “The King’s Speech“
  • Could win: “The Social Network“
  • Should win: “Black Swan“
  • Should be nominated: “Inside Job“

This is what it all comes down to.  The past vs. the present, the critics vs. the guilds, the heart vs. the head.  You’ve heard it analyzed and overanalyzed if you pay any attention the race.  But know this: 2010 marks a watershed decision for the Oscars.  These two movies have come to represent two entirely different camps of moviemaking and moviegoers, and the critics unanimously chose “The Social Network” as their Best Picture of the year.  But then the guilds fired back with their pick for Best Picture being almost unanimously “The King’s Speech.”  It’s never smart to bet against the guilds, so I have to pick “The King’s Speech” since it has their support and clearly has the momentum.  It is the most nominated movie tonight, which is also a help.  I have a hard time calling a split, but I will.  I simply can’t predict “The Social Network” to win even though I so desperately want it to prevail.

That being said, how happy would it make you if “Toy Story 3″ came out of nowhere and won?  Talk about something that would simultaneously silence and please everyone.

7:00 P.M. Time to switch from E! to ABC.  Just saw Natalie Portman … all is good.

(graphic perfectly provided by Awards Daily)

7:03 P.M. Natalie Portman still looks perfect.  Even when she’s pregnant.

7:22 P.M. AHHHH 8 MINUTES!!! I’ve been where they had the red carpet and I’ve been on that stage, by the way.  It’s not a big deal.

7:37 P.M. This opening sequence is so funny I can’t even handle it.  ”YOU JUST GOT INCEPTION’D.”  And the Morgan Freeman cameo is golden.

7:43 P.M. These meta-Oscars are too much for me to handle.  I feel like they are setting up a sweep for “The King’s Speech” and trying to justify their pick by comparing it to history.

7:47 P.M. There goes the momentum for “The King’s Speech!”  That art direction win for “Alice in Wonderland” was quite a shock.  But HOORAY FOR THE “INCEPTION” BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY WIN!  That makes me so happy!  And here’s to a future win for “The Dark Knight Rises!”  Ballot is 1/2 at the moment.

7:57 P.M. And the winner of Best Supporting Actress is … after much delay, sweet Kirk Douglas … Melissa Leo!  Well, there could be worse.  Called that one wrong!

8:00 P.M. Melissa Leo dropped the F-bomb!  She’ll never live that down … awkward moment for an awkward speech with a silent crowd.  And that whole moment with Kirk Douglas felt kinda staged.

8:20 P.M. Sorry for the massive delay, I had to restart my computer.  Much expected wins for “The King’s Speech” and “The Social Network” followed by incredibly charming and winning speeches by David Seidler and Aaron Sorkin.  The two juggernauts are tied at one apiece.  (And the Melissa Leo F-bomb makes for a nice recurring theme.  Better than Justin Timberlake wishing he was Banksy.  Millions of viewers at home are scratching their heads.)

8:25 P.M. Props to Anne Hathaway for whipping out the “Les Miserables.”  She just won my total approval.

8:33 P.M. And the Oscar goes to … CHRISTIAN BALE!!!  Good choice, Academy!  And a very nice speech to follow – although I think he forgot his wife’s name!  (Take that, “The King’s Speech!”  1/5!)

8:36 P.M. Side note: the trailer for “Super 8″ makes me REALLY excited for 2011!  Is it too early to call a Best Picture nominee for next year?  I’ll be incredibly proud if I can look back next year and see that I got this right.

8:41 P.M. The THX sound brings back SO many bad memories from my childhood!  Ahhh, I was so scared of that thing!

8:44 P.M. Best Original Score, another category I love!  The winner is … “THE SOCIAL NETWORK!”  I’m ecstatic, that really was the best score of the year!  Ok, now I think that “The Social Network” might win Best Picture!!!!!!!  Hooray!  That deserves…

8:47 P.M. Best Sound Mixing and Editing?  ”Inception” as expected!  Hooray!  That makes 3 for “Inception,” 2 for “The Fighter,” 2 for “The Social Network,” and 1 for “The King’s Speech.”

8:56 P.M. The meta-Oscars need to go for next year.

8:57 P.M. Cate Blanchett had it right when she said “that’s gross.”  The fact that we can say “the Academy Award-winning film The Wolfman” is sad.

8:59 P.M. DIE I AM LOVE!  But no “The King’s Speech” again!?!?!  That’s a shocker.  ”Alice in Wonderland” has also momentarily eclipsed “The King’s Speech” in Oscar wins.

9:02 P.M. Observation only relevant for tonight: “The King’s Speech” is 1/8 so far.  That means at best, it will have 5 wins.  Most likely only 4.  Possibly only 3.  So much for Sasha Stone on Awards Daily saying that you had to predict the movie to win 6 statues.  I’m really thinking “The Social Network” will win Best Picture now.

9:04 P.M. Ok, the song from “Toy Story 3″ is officially the most adorable thing in the world.  I’ll be upset now if it doesn’t win.

9:10 P.M. Wait, are the Oscars actually going to finish … on time?  Stay tuned for this exciting development.

9:14 P.M. Aaaaaand more meta-Oscars!  STOP!

9:16 P.M. “God of Love” for the win!  That’s one of my three short film guesses that panned out!

9:18 P.M. “The Social Network: The Musical” is catchy.  Can’t wait to see Justin Timberlake headline the original broadway cast!

9:22 P.M. HOORAY FOR CHARLES FERGUSON AND “INSIDE JOB!!!”  The best documentary I have ever seen just won a very deserved Academy Award!  Hopefully the politics of the speech don’t hurt him later… (And did anyone else see the Coen Brothers looking insanely bored!?)

9:28 P.M. I miss Billy Crystal hosting the Oscars!  He is so my childhood watching the Oscars!  And also, I’d like him to make a comeback in movies.

9:34 P.M. LOL to the top reference.  That makes it FOUR for “Inception!”

9:35 P.M. “The Social Network” wins AGAIN!  That’s three!  Hooray, things are looking up for team Facebook!!!

9:45 P.M. Woah, Gwyneth Paltrow is REALLY flat!  Yikes…

9:47 P.M. “Toy Story 3″ wins!  That makes two and a very big smile on my face!!!  I heart Randy Newman.

9:51 P.M. I can dig the “Modern Family” Oscar charades commercial becoming an annual tradition.  ”Eat Pray Chest!”

9:52 P.M. And having Celine Dion sing during the In Memoriam sequence just ruined it.  Way to go, Academy…

10:02 P.M. Entering the last half hour … with Best Director?!?  Before acting?

10:03 P.M. Booo!!!  David Fincher (or at least Darren Aronofsky) deserved it!  This awards ceremony is eerily reminiscent of the trajectory of the awards season.  Total buzzkill for “The Social Network.”

10:06 P.M. Seeing Annette Bening makes me really worried … if Natalie doesn’t win …

10:09 P.M. They can’t do this with Best Director again.  It makes the pit in my stomach last for 20 minutes as opposed to 5 minutes.  Not OK.

10:10 P.M. And there had better be some MASSIVE tribute to the Best Picture nominees coming up!  Because otherwise they got gypped!

10:16 P.M. ^^^ THIS GIRL JUST WON AN OSCAR!!!! I’M OBSESSED WITH NATALIE PORTMAN!!!!!! HOORAY FOR MAKING ONE GOOD PICK TONIGHT!

10:17 P.M. OH MY GOSH YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  I LOVE “BLACK SWAN!”

10:19 P.M. Who cares if her speech wasn’t that good, I’m so happy!!!!! Academy Award winner Natalie Portman!

10:25 P.M. And what we’ve been predicting for five months delivers.  Way to go, Colin Firth!

10:28 P.M. Only one award left…AHHH!!!

10:36 P.M. And the Academy’s Best Picture of the Year is … “The King’s Speech.”  They’ll regret this one later.  Way to send the message, “Yes!  You can make a movie that tailors to every single one of our needs!  We will give it four Oscars!”

10:38 P.M. Four for “Inception” and “The King’s Speech,” three for “The Social Network,” two for “Alice in Wonderland,” “The Fighter,” and “Toy Story 3.”

10:40 P.M. Cool group photo?  Weird ending…

11:03 P.M. Just saw some of the arrivals to the after-parties on E! while unloading the dishwasher.  Not entertaining enough to keep me from doing my homework/studying … until next awards season, my friends!

That’s what my KNOW YOUR NOMINEES series hopes to do.  Every three days, I’ll feature ten interesting facts about the ten Best Picture nominees of 2010 that would be fascinating to pepper into any conversation.  My hope is that you will come away with an enhanced appreciation of the movies but also enjoy learning strange and interesting things about them.

So, as we proceed in alphabetical order, our next stop on the tour is “The King’s Speech.”

“The King’s Speech” should feel like a very personal movie for a number of reasons, but probably chief among them is screenwriter David Seidler.  As a boy growing up in England in the 1930s and ’40s, Seidler was a stammerer and idolized King George VI for his ability to overcome his problem.  He had to wait many years to secure the rights to write a movie about his hero, mainly due to being asked personally by the Queen Mother (played by Helena Bonham Carter in the film) to pass away.  Seidler then wrote it as a play, which director Tom Hooper saw and decided to make into a movie.

The director then added his own personal touch to the movie as well.  Hooper stated in an interview that “The King’s Speech” is really a movie about his family.  For example, the opening scene of the movie showing the preparations for the radio broadcast is an homage to his sister, a presenter for Radio 4.  But mainly the connection comes from the relationship between the British Bertie and Australian Logue as Hooper has an Australian mother and an English father. He talked greatly in interviews about the interesting relationship between the two countries and how he conveyed it in the movie.

Lionel Logue, King George’s speech therapist played in the movie by Geoffrey Rush, kept a detailed set of diaries chronicling his work (although they don’t start until the coronation of the king).  However, the diaries were not made available to the filmmakers until nine weeks before the shoot.  Hooper has said that the only changes they made were for the sake of accuracy, and nothing was drastically altered.  He also stated in an interview that some of the best lines in the movie were taken directly from the diary.  For example, after the climactic speech, Logue jokingly says, “You still stammered on the w,” to which King George replies, “Well, I had to throw in a few so they knew that it was me.”

Colin Firth looks like a sure-fire winner for Best Actor, but this easily could have been someone else.  Firth was actually the third choice to play King George VI and only received the role after first Paul Bettany and then Hugh Grant passed.  Neither have Oscars at home on their mantle, so I’m pretty sure that both are regretting this decision.

So how did Firth nail down that stammer, which he executes so immaculately in “The King’s Speech?”  What might be surprising is that Firth did not work with a speech therapist.  He did, however, use a dialogue coach who helped him make the stammer come from a very personal place while also not affecting the pacing of the movie (imagine how dreadful the movie would be if it took him 20 minutes to utter each word).  A speech therapist did come to some of the rehearsals for the movie, and Firth’s sister is also a vocal therapist, which he claims was very helpful for consulting purposes.  He also talked a lot with screenwriter David Seidler, who compared stuttering to being “underwater.”

Does stammering come with side effects?  For Colin Firth, it did.  During the shoot, he claims to have suffered from some headaches and neck tension.  But the more debilitating toll was on his arm, which became numb, went to sleep and thus hard to use.  He went to the set doctor who had little to offer due to the lack of precedent.

Helena Bonham Carter received her second Academy Award nomination for her work in “The King’s Speech,” but just as the case was with many of this year’s nominees, she almost missed the chance.  Due to her commitment on the “Harry Potter” movies, Carter turned down the role numerous times despite director Tom Hooper’s insistence.  Yet she did star in “The King’s Speech” by making what she calls an “illegal” maneuver – shooting BOTH at the same time.  Carter would go off on the weekends and shoot her scenes for Tom Hooper while never being truly “released” from the “Harry Potter” sets.

How do you get a good actor – an Academy Award winning actor, for that matter – to play a convincing mediocre actor?  Tom Hooper got Geoffrey Rush to do some unconvincing Shakespeare by shooting the scene on the first day with English actors in the room who knew that Rush had some experience with Shakespeare. To quote Rush, “I was nervous and I was bad, and he just shot it.”

What of the royal reaction to the film? Queen Elizabeth II, George’s daughter portrayed in the movie as a young girl, gave “The King’s Speech” her seal of approval.  Cynics might ask how much Harvey Weinstein paid for it; others are probably just thrilled to see the royal family showing interest in popular culture.

Cynics might also say that “The King’s Speech” is a stuffy British royal family costume drama that’s totally designed to win over the Academy.  The last part seems to be somewhat true, but it’s hardly stuffy like most other movies about royal life.  Director Tom Hooper is largely responsible for that.  He stated in an interview that he purposefully set up the opening and closing shots of Bertie/George VI so that the movie would stand apart from others in the genre.  We first meet Bertie in normal clothes, not looking all snazzy in his royal get-up.  The movie closes reaffirming King George and Lionel Logue’s friendship, not with him cured of his stammer as if by magic or medicine.

Check back on February 13 as the KNOW YOUR NOMINEES series continues with “127 Hours.”