Catch up with the idea behind this series here.
We can’t be right all the time, unfortunately. I’m among the guilty people on this planet who make stupid predictions every once in a while, and I made them often with conviction. Now that the year is over, here’s a look back at some of my worst predictions in chronological order – and with 2011 up ahead, I’m laughing at these predictions.
“… if there is a breakout hit in [January], my bet is on [‘Leap Year’].”
Well, this didn’t turn out so well. In the first weekend of 2010, “Leap Year” opened to $9 million on its way to a total haul of only $25 million, ending up among the bottom half of January grossers. On the bright side, it did manage to recoup its production budget!
“Could Kristen Bell become a breakout romantic comedy star with ‘When in Rome?’ … I have a feeling that this could surprise people and a new start could be born.”
“When in Rome” only grossed about $32 million in its whole run, or in Leyman’s terms, what “Avatar” grossed in its 7th weekend. As for Kristen Bell, she still hasn’t hit it big; “You Again” grossed even less in September.
“I’m waiting for tomorrow – ‘Clash of the Titans,’ baby!”
Talk about a bust. “Clash of the Titans” was a huge disappointment as I was really eagerly anticipating it. As I wrote in my review, “My eyes might have seen in three dimensions, but my brain saw a movie that only had one. Given how deeply rooted in mythology the story is, I had very high expectations for ‘Clash of the Titans.’ Unfortunately … it fails on all levels.”
“[Best Supporting Actor] LOVES villians … It is also a category that likes to reward actors (usually veterans) who are overdue for a trophy … By these two characteristics, Rourke would appear to have a great shot.”
It’s funny because while I wasn’t a fan of “Iron Man 2,” I actually thought Rourke was the worst part of the movie, and there I was writing about his awards chances! As I said in my review, “It’s hard to believe from watching ‘Iron Man 2′ that Mickey Rourke was being heralded as an Oscar nominee just 18 months ago. When we aren’t waiting for him to say a word, his Whiplash seems to be nothing more than an unkind Russian stereotype.” Clearly I liked “The Wrestler” too much …
“If ‘The Dark Knight’ was part of the reason that the Oscars moved to ten nominees, then they are still looking for that popcorn flick with enough brain to atone for their horrifying omission. ‘Robin Hood‘ could be that movie.”
Clearly I forgot about a little movie called “Inception” that was gearing up for release.
“Don’t be surprised if [‘Scott Pilgrim vs. The World’] is an out-of-nowhere smash hit.”
Despite massive love from the bloggers, “Scott Pilgrim vs. The World” became a high-profile flop over the summer, earning just $10 million in fifth place its opening weekend on its way to just over $30 million cumulatively. Ouch.
“I think the premise alone [of ‘The Social Network’] draws in $80 million in revenue, but the fact that it’s going to be really good will increase its total take to somewhere in the range of $120-150 million. I’m hardly a box office analyst, I know, yet I feel pretty confident making this financial prediction.”
Perhaps I overestimated the box office potential of “The Social Network” earlier this year. The Facebook movie drew in a respectable but not great $23 million in its opening weekend and displayed strong legs to power itself to $91 million (and still counting slowly). So I was a little bit off on it setting the box office on fire. But to my credit, I was dead-on about it being the Best Picture frontrunner all those months ago.
“I think [‘Hereafter’] could be a very powerful movie …”
“Hereafter” was a pretty big disappointment for me in 2010. I wrote in my review, “In hyperlink cinema, one might say there exists a formula that the final product is equal to the sum of its parts. However, Eastwood’s ‘Hereafter’ in total feels like less.” Too bad, it could have been something good.
“To save the weekend, there’s Rachel McAdams in ‘Morning Glory!’ As if she’s not enough, Harrison Ford and Diane Keaton are on board for this drama-comedy mix that doesn’t seem to favor any genre over the other. What a great surprise awaits us!”
Rachel McAdams may have won me over with her incredibly good looks, but she sure didn’t win me over with her 2010 movie selection. “Morning Glory” was incredibly cliched and forgettable, and it was hardly a breath of fresh air in November like I had imagined it would be. It was recycled air, like the gross kind on a plane.
“… ‘How Do You Know‘ is still unseen, but I’m getting good vibes. Probably stupid to put it on my list [of predicted Best Picture nominees] instead of ‘Another Year,’ but I’m going gutsy.”
How do you know when a movie won’t get a Best Picture nomination? When despite being directed by an Academy Award-winning filmmaker, it can’t even muster up a single Golden Globe nomination and movies like “Alice in Wonderland” and “The Tourist” can. If my hunch back then somehow winds up being right, I think a whole lot of people will give up Oscar guessing as a hobby.