Oscar Moment: “Iron Man 2″

28 04 2010

In nine days, the summer movie season will officially kick off with the release of “Iron Man 2.”  It will most assuredly begin the very profitable period with a bang, potentially with the highest opening of all-time.  According to the Los Angeles Times, interest in the movie is very high ahead of the opening and polling has confirmed that people are indeed eagerly anticipating the release.  Whether or not it has what it takes to topple the record held by “The Dark Knight” is something no one can really predict.

“The Dark Knight” had many extraordinary circumstances in its favor.  The first “Iron Man” movie primed the pump for intelligent popcorn flicks by proving a surprise hit amongst fans and critics.  The rebooting of the Batman series with “Batman Begins” also gathered a large fan base, and people were excited for the follow-up.  But what arguably became the key factor in the success of “The Dark Knight” was the tragic death of Heath Ledger and a new layer of intrigue that was added to the movie as a result.  Rumor was that the drugs Ledger overdosed on were to help him get over the psychological distress of playing The Joker, and excitement to see his villainous turn quickly became some of the most intense anticipation in cinematic history.  People threw out casual suggestions about him being in contention for awards, and his death made an Oscar nomination a near certainty.  When the movie was released, Ledger’s win was sealed.

“Iron Man 2” features what could be another outstanding villainous role in Mickey Rourke taking on the part of Tony Stark’s foe, Whiplash.  After dealing with many substance abuse problems, Rourke triumphantly blazed back onto the Hollywood stage with “The Wrestler” in 2008, winning the Golden Globe and receiving an Oscar nomination.  His role in that movie led to a surge of interest in the actor, and the first role he took was in “Iron Man 2.”

But did Mickey Rourke lose all chances of being considered for Best Supporting Actor by being alive in the months leading up to the release of “Iron Man 2?”

It may be best to start by analyzing the category.

This is a category that LOVES villians – Christoph Waltz this year, Ledger, Javier Bardem in 2007, Tim Robbins in 2003.  It is also a category that likes to reward actors (usually veterans) who are overdue for a trophy – Alan Arkin in 2006, Morgan Freeman in 2004.  By these two characteristics, Rourke would appear to have a great shot.  He’s scary even whenever he’s not a villain, and he has a great deal of Academy support despite his loss two years ago to Sean Penn for Best Actor.

Judgement, however, cannot be based on the category alone.  It’s hardly a secret that the Oscars don’t like comic book movies.  They declined to nominate “The Dark Knight” for their highest prize despite being successful in every area and popular with every group in favor of “The Reader,” a movie that had lukewarm support from critics and fans.  Right out of the gate, Rourke and “Iron Man 2” have a massive strike against them.  It would take the movie out of the picture without the expanded field, no matter how much praise it was met with.  In my estimation, it will take a tremendous performance by Rourke to overcome this hurdle, one that I believe he is fully capable of delivering.  But if the movie tanks critically as sequels often do, it would be all but impossible for him to be nominated.

Then again, Heath Ledger overcame it.  We can never know how performance vs. politics played out or how things would have turned out had he been alive.  All politics aside, I believe Ledger gave one of the greatest performances that I have ever seen, and he deserved to win an Oscar for it dead or alive.  It was a total immersion, and if Rourke can pull off something similar, I see no reason for him not to be nominated or even win.  But awards can’t just be about the art; it’s a game where how you play matters just as much as how you act on screen.

I’m skeptical about Rourke’s chances, as you can tell.  We just have to remember that performances aren’t given and movies aren’t made to win awards; they are made to entertain and captivate an audience.  If Rourke blows us away with Whiplash, awards attention is just a bonus.  The real award comes from the creation of art that does more than serve its purpose.

BEST BETS FOR NOMINATIONS: Best Visual Effects, Best Sound Mixing/Editing

OTHER POSSIBLE NOMINATIONS: Best Supporting Actor (Mickey Rourke)


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Categories : 2010 - Oscar Moment, Oscar Moment

Oscar Moment: “How to Train Your Dragon”

7 04 2010

Yesterday, “How to Train Your Dragon” passed $100 million at the box office, a reliable milestone signifying success finding an audience.  Naturally, I think this calls for an Oscar Moment discussing its chances in the Best Animated Feature.

Being a crowd favorite is something that helps when it comes to the Best Animated Feature category.  6 out of the 9 winners were the highest grossers in the field, and two of the others were $200 million grossers (the odd man out is “Spirited Away” which made only $10 million).  Although it’s unlikely to reach the bucks of a Pixar flick, “How to Train Your Dragon” still has the bucks to gain serious consideration in the category.

But can it topple a Pixar movie in the category that they practically own?

Based on the reviews, we know the critics aren’t against it.  The 98% critical approval rating of “How to Train Your Dragon” is equivalent to last year’s winner “Up” and bests all other winners.  Being well-reviewed is essential to win Best Animated Feature, which has scored an average of four percentage points higher than Best Picture winners since the category’s inception.  (The average would be a 96% – up seven percentage points – if you omit 2006, which really didn’t offer any good animated movies.)

The circumstances beyond the movie’s control will either kill it or give a giant boost.  Much depends on Pixar’s “Toy Story 3,” which is the obvious favorite to win and will open with massive expectations.  I see two scenarios working out: either “Toy Story 3” is a massive success and it takes the category like most are predicting, OR the tiniest thing is wrong and the movie is considered a disappointment.  Knowing Pixar, it’s best not to bet against the first scenario, but the latter is a definite possibility.  If Pixar doesn’t topple its own standards, voters might feel reluctant to give the studio another trophy.  Denying it to them would send a message that the lamp logo before a movie doesn’t ensure Oscar victory, and the beneficiary could very well be “How to Train Your Dragon.”

But as for other factors, the movie also has to contend with another DreamWorks Animation release in November, “Megamind.”  I’m not predicting this to be a critical hit just based on the fact that it stars Will Ferrell, but I could be wrong.  In the unlikely case that it does score critically, the studio will have a handful promoting two deserving movies for Best Animated Feature.  Depending on how many animated movies are released that year, there may not be five slots like there were this year.  If it does come down to three nominees in the category, the votes could easily cancel each other out.

The release date could hurt it as well.  Since it is being released about 11 months away from voting, it will have to really have staying power.  Voters will have to remember how the movie made them feel and how exhilarated they felt in 3D, because by the time DreamWorks starts screening the movie, it will most likely be out on DVD.

At the moment, it’s safe to say that “How to Train Your Dragon” is no longer a dark horse because it has a good outside shot at winning.  It will need some help, and we will see in a matter of months if that aid will pan out.  And in case you were wondering, I don’t think we are looking at a potential Best Picture nominee here.  “Up” was a deeply sentimental movie, and it was a reward for all the good work Pixar has done in the last 15 years.

BEST BETS FOR NOMINATIONS: Best Animated Feature


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Categories : 2010 - Oscar Moment

Oscar Moment: “Toy Story 3”

29 03 2010

The 2009 Oscars were a little more than three weeks ago, so I think we’re ready to move onto 2010.  Next year’s ceremonies are 47 weeks away, but it’s never too early to start the chatter.

I felt like I should kick off my Oscars commentary this year with something that we all know will be in the running in some shape or form: “Toy Story 3,” the latest Pixar output.

Because it bears the Pixar brand, it automatically becomes the frontrunner in the Best Animated Feature race.  In the nine years that the category has been around, Pixar has won five of the seven times it has had a movie in the category (losing only with “Monsters, Inc.” and “Cars”) and the last three years in a row.  The studio is a juggernaut, and their movies clearly stand head and shoulders above any other animated film.

And “Up” scored Pixar its first nomination for Best Picture last year.  The expanded field is no doubt to thank for this, but it got me thinking.  With ten nominees every year, will there always be a spot for Pixar’s movie?

I looked at the history of the category, and it really doesn’t lend us any insight.  To be honest, it’s pointless and arbitrary to apply the rules of a five nomination field to one with ten.  But it’s obvious that having more nominees increases the chance for a niche to be carved in the category.  I think few can argue with the fact that Pixar has the respect in the industry to have their movies represented repeatedly.

But ultimately, it comes down to the movie, as it always does.  And “Toy Story 3” as expectations almost as unreal as flying a house with balloons.  Both of the original “Toy Story” movies have a perfect 100 score on Rotten Tomatoes, but in the eleven years since, Pixar has continued its unprecedented run with only one movie with below a 95.  “Cars” scored a 75% largely because the plot was stale in comparison to the other gems (in fact, it was the only Pixar movie since 2003 not to score a Best Original Screenplay nomination).

That proves a perfect segue into what must be the key element of “Toy Story 3”: the story.  People have incredibly fond memories of the first two installments, and in order to hit big with audiences, it has to strike the perfect chord of staying true to its roots but offering a new and exciting experience.  I’m a little tentative about all the new characters that Pixar is introducing in the movie.  They all need to serve a purpose to the plot and be used tastefully, otherwise they are just noisy lawn ornaments.

But honestly, this is Pixar we are talking about.  Time spent trying to find flaws in their work is time squandered.

Before I leave you, I want to talk about my plans for the “Oscar Moment” column this year.  We’ve been through a whole season together, and looking back, I can’t help but feel like I was just talking to a wall.  I set out to inform, and in doing that, I seemed to forgot to include.  This speculation is only fun if you all engage in it with me.  From now on, I am going to attach polls on Oscar Moments when I feel that they are worthwhile to gauge your opinion.

335 days until Oscars 2010!


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