Live Blogging: Oscars 2009

7 03 2010

NOTE: All times are from the Central Time Zone.

6:42 P.M. Got the epiphany to live blog the Oscars a few moments ago.  Watching the red carpet arrivals on E! while I wait for the show to start.  Basically, I really want to hang out with Gabourey Sidibe because she is awesome.  Keep checking back for more updates!

7:01 P.M. Blahhh, I thought the actual show started now!  Too bad it’s just another 30 minutes of red carpet…

7:30 P.M. It’s 7:30, now start the show!  I don’t want to see a Sketchers ad!

7:31 P.M. Interesting display of the leading actor/actress nominees…also kind of awkward.  Love Carey Mulligan and Gabourey though.

7:33 P.M. What awards show hasn’t NPH been on?  This is kind of a random opening…I want Alec and Steve.

7:36 P.M. I’m already digging the duo.  No more solo hosts, please.

7:41 P.M. Why on earth is Kathryn Bigelow sitting right in front of James Cameron?

7:43 P.M. Alec and Steve = my new heroes for poking fun at Taylor Lautner and Zac Efron.

7:48 P.M. CHRISTOPH WALTZ! HECK YES!

7:49 P.M. I love Waltz’s “BINGO” reference.  What a humble speech.

7:52 P.M. They usually do the Best Picture nominees in alphabetical order, so if “District 9” is next, then “Avatar” won Best Picture.  I can’t stand how the producers don’t think we realize this.

7:57 P.M. This animated character thing is SO money.

8:00 P.M. Yayyyyyy “Up!”

8:04 P.M. Good win for “The Weary Kind” … Oscars proceeding without surprises.

8:06 P.M. Can I change my ballot now?  “District 9” just got presented, so “Avatar” has won.

8:15 P.M. Best Original Screenplay goes to … “The Hurt Locker.”  Beginning of a steamroller?

8:18 P.M. Likin’ the John Hughes tribute.  Some good laughs here.

8:24 P.M. Oh boy … scratch that “Avatar” theory.  They are showing “Up,” which I’m secretly hoping wins Best Picture.

8:32 P.M. And there goes my perfect ballot.  Thanks, “Logorama.”

8:38 P.M. How much better can Ben Stiller get?  After Joaquin Phoenix last year, I thought he was hilarious.  I’m literally dying at him in Na’vi makeup.  James Cameron looks so uncomfortable…

8:50 P.M. NO! “Up in the Air” just got robbed!  But happy for “Precious” too, I guess.

8:52 P.M. If “Up in the Air” doesn’t win an Oscar…

8:58 P.M. Why are they giving away the best parts of “Up in the Air” now?

9:01 P.M. Hey, Mo’Nique just proved that my “Importance of the Speech” article was right!  And what a deserved standing ovation for the best performance of the year.

9:02 P.M. Are they presenting the Best Picture nominees in the order in which they were voted?  Or am I just reading too much into this?

9:07 P.M. Wow, a win for “Avatar” for Best Production Design?  I guess they really do accept the digital filmmaking …

9:09 P.M. What is with the weird rotating set piece behind the presenters?

9:12 P.M. “Precious” has 6 nominations, Charlize.

9:21 P.M. They did NOT just show “New Moon” in the horror sequence…

9:22 P.M. Anna Kendrick, get off Zac Efron’s arm and marry me.

9:23 P.M. Thank you, Morgan Freeman, for explaining sound to me!  I love your voice.

9:25 P.M. And the first “Avatar”-“Hurt Locker” face off goes to … “The Hurt Locker.”

9:27 P.M. Make that the first two* faceoffs…

9:30 P.M. All of a sudden, I really want to watch “Inglourious Basterds.”  Kudos to the person who edited the clip for utilizing the amazing soundtrack.

9:36 P.M. And now “Avatar” takes one from “The Hurt Locker” with cinematography.

9:41 P.M. I miss Natasha Richardson.

9:47 P.M. These street dancers are interesting … I much prefer last year’s simple and classy Best Score presentation.

9:52 P.M. YESSSSSSSSS! “UP” WINS … very deserving Best Score win.

9:56 P.M. Wait … “Avatar” for Best Visual Effects?  That’s shocking … NOW we are tied at 3.

9:58 P.M. Remind me why “Up in the Air” isn’t going to win Best Picture…

10:01 P.M. Only 29 minutes left in the show … this is when my heart starts pumping like crazy.

10:04 P.M. A deserved win for “The Cove.”  Bravo, Academy.  Bravo.

10:06 P.M. Where are Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin?  And why is Tyler Perry presenting editing (actually, this isn’t such a big deal)?

10:07 P.M. And the Oscar goes to “The Hurt Locker” … that makes 4.

10:09 P.M. “The Hurt Locker” coming on now means that “Avatar” will be presented last … am I reading too much into it?

10:15 P.M. What’s with these lamps behind Quentin?

10:20 P.M. Four awards to go, ten minutes scheduled … we are definitely running over.

10:25 P.M. I thought they had gotten rid of this awkward presentation for the acting categories … guess not.

10:32 P.M. Oh, and now we get Kate Winslet.

10:33 P.M. I’m happy for Jeff Bridges.  Almost 40 years from nomination to win. Wow.

10:48 P.M. What the heck did Sean Penn just say?

10:49 P.M. Not my personal choice, but I like Sandra Bullock’s attitude.

10:52 P.M. It’s going to be really awkward for Barbra Streisand if Kathryn Bigelow doesn’t win … melted butter, if you will.

10:55 P.M. We have just seen history.  CONGRATULATIONS KATHRYN BIGELOW!

10:58 P.M. BEST PICTURE AHHHHH!!!!!

10:58 P.M. Oh, wow, that was quick.  Go “The Hurt Locker!”

11:04 P.M. Why do I hear “E.T.,” “Chariots of Fire,” and the musical “Oklahoma” in the end credits for the Oscars?

11:07 P.M. Why are the rules being presented at the very end of the broadcast.

11:08 P.M. Well, that’s it, folks.  “The Hurt Locker” is the big winner with six, but “Avatar” took home three, and “Precious,” “Crazy Heart,” and “Up” each won two.  Nothing for “Up in the Air.”  It’s my movie now!


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The 2009 Oscars: Redefining

7 03 2010

Well, we are here.  It is Oscar night.  The final hurrah for the best films of 2009.  A life-changing night for many people who will have a new title to affix in front of their names forever.

But the change isn’t just limited to the winners; tonight, the very way that we look at the Oscars could change.  If Best Picture goes to “Avatar,” the Academy will have shown its support for 3D, motion capture, and box office receipts.  If “The Hurt Locker” wins, it reaffirms the Academy’s value of powerful, classic filmmaking.  “Avatar” would be the highest grossing Best Picture winner ever; “The Hurt Locker” would be the lowest.

The media has enjoyed calling the race “David vs. Goliath,” but I’m not sure that’s what I would call it.  It is Goliath vs. Goliath, two very big movies in their own right and their own distinctive way.  The Oscars have always been about the movies, not the money (as much as we think – or know – that it plays a part), and both of these movies are fantastic pieces of filmmaking.

In most of my conversations involving “Avatar” this year, people have said, “I loved the movie, but I don’t think it should win Best Picture.”  To all of those people, I give you this message: we have been worked into this notion of what Best Picture should be due in large part to the similarities of the recent winners.  This year could be about redefining how we see Best Picture forever, and I’ve now prepared myself for it.  There are much worse movies than “Avatar” that could have led the charge.  And eventually, there will be a 3-D winner; there will be a motion-capture winner; there will be a sci-fi winner.  Giving Best Picture to “Avatar” could inspire some great filmmakers to try their hand at the medium, and cinema would truly be raised to new levels.

I’ve talked to some people who haven’t even heard of “The Hurt Locker.”  It’s not the kind of mainstream, popcorn movie that attracts a lot of people without hearing that it has been nominated for nine Oscars.  But it’s the kind of movie that people are happy to discover, and the awards have led many people to watch it who probably wouldn’t have before.  If those people didn’t care to rent the movie, they’ll see it’s win as typical Academy pretentiousness.  To them, I say that sometimes, you have to look past the multiplex to find the best movies.  A win for “The Hurt Locker” would probably leave Best Picture at the status quo, and plenty of people are fine with keeping their preconceived notions of the prize.

So, I hope everyone can enjoy the show whether or not your movie wins.  But remember this: an Oscar win makes it their movie.  Sometimes, if the Oscars don’t reward the movie you like, it becomes your movie.

I’m still sticking by my conviction that “Up in the Air” was the best movie of 2009, but I doubt that it will take home Best Picture.  I’m getting a feeling in my gut that “Avatar” will win, but my prediction is still “The Hurt Locker.”

But just remember – change isn’t always a bad thing.  It’s their decision, not ours, and it’s best not to fight it.  Accept it.  Enjoy it.


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2009: Best Actor

5 03 2010

I’m wrapping up the in-depth analysis of this year’s Academy Awards with the Best Actor category. In a perfect world, I would have done the screenplays, director, and picture categories as well. But life happens, and things don’t always work out as planned.

Nevertheless, please enjoy this deeper look at the performances that got these actors here.

Jeff Bridges in “Crazy Heart”

IN MY OWN WORDS: “The little things that help to turn Bridges into this character aren’t very obvious, yet I never felt like I was watching Jeff Bridges.”

He’s here because … he is an industry veteran with a lot of respect, and his four winless trips to the Oscars simply aren’t enough to honor such a great actor.

George Clooney in “Up in the Air”

IN MY OWN WORDS: “George Clooney remains the best in the business at playing visibly collected while emotionally perturbed beneath the surface.”

He’s here because … he’s an Academy favorite who is as good as he’s ever been in a beautifully nuanced performance.

Colin Firth in “A Single Man”

IN MY OWN WORDS: “Firth keeps the grief bubbling under the surface for most of the movie, and he makes George’s journey even more heart-rending with his subdued misery.”

He’s here because … he is immensely likable, and he finally gives a performance that can turn good feelings into awards attention.

Morgan Freeman in “Invictus”

IN MY OWN WORDS: “Morgan Freeman is remarkable as Mandela, and it is a performance that reminds us why he has such a revered status among actors.”

He’s here because … it’s Morgan Freeman playing Nelson Mandela – a legend playing a legend.

Jeremy Renner in “The Hurt Locker”

IN MY OWN WORDS: “Renner gives an absolute tour de force performance as James; he strips James down until he is emotionally raw.”

He’s here because … he’s finally found his breakout role at 39 in the little movie that could; who can resist that?

Marshall’s “Oscars”

I’ve seen all five of the nominees in this category, and I think they did a great job selecting here.  The only change I would make is replacing Morgan Freeman for Peter Sarsgaard in “An Education.”  Freeman did a great job in “Invictus,” but I felt like it was just him going through the motions.  He didn’t wow me.

Sarsgaard, on the other hand, dazzled me.  He was campaigned for Best Supporting Actor, but category fraud doesn’t happen at my awards.  He brings such grace and debonair to his character, the wooer of teenage Jenny, that I didn’t doubt why she fell for his charms.

So, the lineup at my awards would be …

Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
George Clooney, “Up in the Air”
Colin Firth, “A Single Man”
Jeremy Renner, “The Hurt Locker”
Peter Sarsgaard, “An Education”

Predictions

Should win: George Clooney, “Up in the Air”
Could win: Jeremy Renner, “The Hurt Locker”
Will win: Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”

Bridges has it in the bag, no question about it.  If his wide array of trophies for this performance wasn’t enough, the massive standing ovations he has received collecting them leave no doubt in my mind.


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2009: Best Actress

4 03 2010

Best Actress – it’s considered by many to be the most unpredictable of the major races at the 82nd Academy Awards.  Five very deserving and adored candidates are vying for the industries top prize.

But before they were candidates, they were performances.  And even before that, they were characters that existed on a page.  Each of these are just stages, and to move from one to the other, a fantastic actor is crucial.

Here, I intend to celebrate the actresses for their work in turning that character into a performance, work that was so excellent that it turned them into candidates.

Sandra Bullock in “The Blind Side”

IN MY OWN WORDS: “Sandra Bullock’s spirited and spunky performance (which was good enough to overcome her dreadful accent) atones for some of the errors the film makes with her story.”

She’s here because … she is a popular actress playing a likable character in the box office surprise of the year.

Helen Mirren in “The Last Station”

She’s here because … she’s Helen Mirren and the Academy loves her; who cares if no one in America had seen her movie when the ballots were due?

Carey Mulligan in “An Education”

IN MY OWN WORDS: “The understated grace and poise that Mulligan gives to Jenny is what evoked Hepburn’s resemblance, but the real marvel of Mulligan’s acting is that the old-fashioned spirit does not make her character some kind of antique.”

She’s here because … she is a brilliant rising star who dazzles in one of the year’s most agreeable movies.

Meryl Streep in “Julie & Julia”

IN MY OWN WORDS: “[Streep] completely masters the persona of the larger-than-life personality and woman – but to anyone that has seen Streep’s work, this is hardly a surprise.”

She’s here because … this is yet another fantastic Meryl Streep performance, and the Academy can’t not nominate one of those.

Gabourey Sidibe in “Precious”

IN MY OWN WORDS: “[Sidibe] makes us feel great concern about her character from the instant we see her trudging through her school.  As Precious gains confidence, our concern develops into genuine care and affection.”

She’s here because … in her first role, she commands the screen with the presence of a veteran.

Marshall’s Oscars

I haven’t seen “The Last Station,” but three of the four nominated performances that I have seen made my Best Actress list.  The exception is Sandra Bullock, who I think has a great story this year, but not one of the best performances.

One spot goes to Zooey Deschanel for her fantastic work on “(500) Days of Summer.”  Her performance has stuck with me all year, and its beautiful subtleties are astounding.  In one of my first reviews on this blog, I raved of Deschanel:

Summer [Deschanel’s character] also has a deep need to be love, but she makes this yearning ever so subtle. Deschanel is able to play this crucial undertone quite skillfully … Deschanel, who most audiences will remember as Will Ferrell’s love interest in “Elf,” plays Summer with the right balance of warmth and bitterness. She plays hard-to-get but also projects Summer’s need to be loved at the same time.

I’ve always been hesitant about giving acting awards to foreign language performances (not that it really matters), but the more I have thought about Melanie Laurent’s performance in “Inglourious Basterds,” the more remarkable it has become for me.  I didn’t say anything other than her being “poignant” in my review, yet her virtuoso work is actually quite astounding.  Obviously Waltz reigns supreme in the film, but she’s crucial to the movie’s success in her own right.

At my prestigious ceremony, the nominees read as followed:

Zooey Deschanel, “(500) Days of Summer”
Melanie Laurent, “Inglourious Basterds”
Carey Mulligan, “An Education”
Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”
Gabourey Sidibe, “Precious”

Predictions

Should win: Carey Mulligan, “An Education”
Could win: Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”
Will win: Sandra Bullock, “The Blind Side”

The race is between Streep and Bullock, with Mulligan and Sidibe as the major dark horses.  Ultimately, I think the fact that Meryl already has two statues on her mantle coupled with the popularity of “The Blind Side” is enough to propel Bullock to the win.


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2009: Best Supporting Actor

3 03 2010

My celebration of this year’s Academy Award-nominated performances continues with a look at the Best Supporting Actor category.

It’s an interesting mix, but I’ll try not to treat them as numbers or as candidates.  They are actors, and they give performances.  The Oscars become a political race, but I think it’s time to relax and remember 2009 simply as it was: a great year at the theater.

Matt Damon in “Invictus”

IN MY OWN WORDS: “The urgency with which [Damon] sets out to transform rugby into something more than just a game for his team is played with an ardent and admirable intensity.”

He’s here because … he had a great year, playing two completely different characters, and he is a well-liked and popular actor.

Woody Harrelson in “The Messenger”

He’s here because … he is a character actor who has gone too long unnoticed and under appreciated, and it is time for his moment in the sun.

Christopher Plummer in “The Last Station”

He’s here because … he is a fantastic aging actor who had never been nominated before this year, and it was time to correct the crime.

Stanley Tucci in “The Lovely Bones”

He’s here because … he’s a well-liked actor who showed his versatility this year, and he has sympathy after the sad loss of his wife to cancer earlier this year.

Christoph Waltz in “Inglourious Basterds”

IN MY OWN WORDS: “[Waltz] makes Landa very eerie, nearing the level of Javier Bardem in ‘No Country for Old Men,’ but he is also quite likeable and somewhat charming despite the atrocious deeds he commits.”

He’s here because … he is absolutely spellbinding and commanded the screen every time he graced it.

Marshall’s “Oscars”

It’s a little tough for me to gauge how well the Academy did with this category because at this moment, I have only seen two of the five nominated performances.  However, the two that I did see (Waltz and Damon) both made my list.

As for the other three, it’s a bit of an eccentric collection.  First, I would like to honor the snubbed Alfred Molina for his role as Jenny’s father in “An Education.”  Last year, I spoke on my strong support for his performance:

“Among the ensemble, the real standout is Alfred Molina as Jenny’s father.  Despite being a stern authoritarian when it comes to educational matters, Molina brings an all-encompassing charm that lets us know that he cares for her greatly (but with the values of a fading generation).  His presence lends a warm feel to the movie that blends well with all the other pleasant sentiments the movie radiates.”

Another actor who made my list is not a conventional Academy pick (and thus he finds a home here): Alec Baldwin for “It’s Complicated.”  Other than perhaps “The Hangover” guys, I can’t think of any one actor who made me bust a gut so hard in 2009.  In my review, I raved of Baldwin:

“The real comedic spirit of the film comes from Alec Baldwin, who plays the overbearing fun-lover with such energy that he steals the screen every time he appears on it.  Motivated by little other than carnal desires, [his character’s] every move is fairly anticipated, but Baldwin’s zeal and verve prevent them ensure that they are always hysterical.”

For my final nominee, I debated including Paul Schneider for his role as poet John Keats’ friend in “Bright Star” as well as Stephen Lang for his muscling role as tough-as-nails marine in “Avatar.”  But after some thought, I decided that the spot deservingly goes to Nicholas Hoult for playing an overly interested student in “A Single Man.”  At first, I found myself quite annoyed by the character.  But as soon as I got over that, I discovered that a great performance lay underneath:

“The real acting standout is the young Nicholas Hoult as George’s overly inquisitive pupil, Kenny.  The script only feeds him obsequiously sexually inviting lines, and it’s hard to overcome that.  But Hoult understands the nature of his character and allows him to progress from somewhat creepy to somewhat of a guardian angel for George (look no further than his giant white sweater).”

So, at Marshall’s Oscars, the nominees would have been…

Alec Baldwin, “It’s Complicated”
Matt Damon, “Invictus”
Nicholas Hoult, “A Single Man”
Alfred Molina, “An Education”
Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”

Predictions:

Should win: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”
Could win: Christopher Plummer, “The Last Station”
Will win: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”

The only way Waltz loses here is if the voters feel like they need to give Plummer a “career achievement” Oscar. But even that doesn’t seem likely after Waltz’s steamrolling through this season.


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2009: Best Supporting Actress

2 03 2010

It’s here.

By this point, the ballots are in, and all the campaigning is over. The politics of the Oscars are over, and now we are just left with the scripts, the performances, and the movies.  Rather than do one big post discussing and analyzing all of the categories, I want to use this week to honor the films and performances themselves.

Penelope Cruz in “Nine”

IN MY OWN WORDS: “Cruz is absolutely mesmerizing from the first instant we see her traipsing around on some pink fabric.”

She’s here because … she was the highlight of a pretty disastrous movie, pulling off one of the year’s sexiest performances.

Vera Farmiga in “Up in the Air”

IN MY OWN WORDS: “Vera Farmiga walks a very thin line between “feminine and agressive,” according to Reitman, and she never gives us any hint that she will lose her balance.”

She’s here because … she is a delightful female counterpart to George Clooney, and her performance illuminates Clooney’s character as a whole.

Maggie Gyllenhaal in “Crazy Heart”

IN MY OWN WORDS: “It’s a performance very much in Gyllehaal’s comfort zone, and she’s pleasant to watch.”

She’s here because … she holds her own against the renowned Jeff Bridges, and she has a lot of respect amongst actors (not unlike her co-star).

Anna Kendrick in “Up in the Air”

IN MY OWN WORDS: [Kendrick] doesn’t show promise as a star; Natalie Keener has made her one.

She’s here because … she is a brilliant discovery, making uptight lovable and reminding us of the happiness and pain that comes with having real human relationships.

Mo’Nique in “Precious”

IN MY OWN WORDS: “Mo’Nique delivers a performance that is absolutely harrowing.”

She’s here because … this is the most emotionally gripping performance of 2009, and it’s equally shocking to think that it comes from the actress who headlined “Phat Girlz” three years ago.

Marshall’s “Oscars”

The Academy did a pretty good job this year. My top five match 4/5 with their list.

I would replace Maggie Gyllenhaal with Rosamund Pike for “An Education.”  Both played relatively simple characters: Gyllenhaal the devoted single mother and Pike the dumb blonde.  But the distinction arises from what they do with it.  Gyllenhaal seems complacent with sticking to the stock character; on the other hand, Pike does fascinating things with Helen.  I didn’t feel like I was watching the ten millionth air-headed rich blonde because Pike made it feel refreshing and new.

In my review, I said about Pike:

“The performance that will probably go criminally unheralded is Rosamund Pike as one of David’s companions.  She is the typical ‘dumb blonde’ stereotype, but she brings her own flair to it in a way that makes the tired stock character seem brand new.  When she is on screen, you can’t help but grin.”

So, at Marshall’s Oscars, the nominees are…

Penelope Cruz, “Nine”
Vera Farmiga, “Up in the Air”
Anna Kendrick, “Up in the Air”
Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Rosamund Pike, “An Education”

In case you don’t realize this, my favorite is revealed in the “should win” listed below.

Predictions

Should win: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Could win: Anna Kendrick, “Up in the Air”
Will win: Mo’Nique, “Precious”

No way in hell anyone other than Mo’Nique wins. She’s just too good.


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FEATURE: The Importance of the Speech

1 03 2010

At the Screen Actors Guild Awards, they call it “Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role.”  At the Golden Globe Awards, they call it “Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture.”  But at the Academy Awards, the most celebrated show of them all, they call it simply “Best Actor.”

This distinction is important because at the Oscars, it is not just the performance that is rewarded.  It is the actor themselves.  The Academy elects four actors each year to become the face of quality of their industry to the world.  These actors can forever affix the title “Academy Award Winner” to their name on any poster or trailer they so desire.  Thus, they vote not only for a great body of work but also for a face and a personality that represents them well.

The performance gets a select group of actors some attention.  Their name and reputation gets them to the next step: consideration.  Then, a few big groups take a leap and select one of them.  At this point, the part of the voter is done.  It is up to the actors to let us know where they stand.  With their acceptance speech, it is their job to convince us why they deserve the highest honor that their craft has to give.  It is their job to show voters what a vote for them really means.

Let’s take a look at the five actors who have won top prizes from the Golden Globes and the Screen Actors Guild.

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The 2009 Academy Award Nominations!

2 02 2010

Best Picture:
Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

Best Director:
Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
James Cameron, “Avatar”
Lee Daniels, “Precious”
Jason Reitman, “Up in the Air”
Quentin Tarantino, “Inglourious Basterds”

Best Actor:
Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
George Clooney, “Up in the Air”
Colin Firth, “A Single Man”
Morgan Freeman, “Invictus”
Jeremy Renner, “The Hurt Locker”

Best Actress:
Sandra Bullock, “The Blind Side”
Helen Mirren, “The Last Station”
Carey Mulligan, “An Education”
Gabourey Sidibe, “Precious”
Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”

Best Supporting Actor:
Matt Damon, “Invictus”
Woody Harrelson, “The Messenger”
Christopher Plummer, “The Last Station”
Stanley Tucci, “The Lovely Bones”
Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”

Best Supporting Actress:
Penelope Cruz, “Nine”
Vera Farmiga, “Up in the Air”
Maggie Gyllenhaal, “Crazy Heart”
Anna Kendrick, “Up in the Air”
Mo’Nique, “Precious”

Best Original Screenplay:
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The Messenger
A Serious Man
Up

Best Adapted Screenplay:
District 9
An Education
In the Loop
Precious
Up in the Air


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Oscar Moment: FINAL Predictions, 2009

1 02 2010

THE OSCAR NOMINATIONS ARE ANNOUNCED TOMORROW MORNING!

(deep breath)

I can barely contain myself!  The morning that I spend all year anticipating is tomorrow!  Last year, they gave me a nice sucker punch to the gut by denying “The Dark Knight” nominations for Best Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay.  Four years ago, the same happened to “Walk the Line.”

We often let the pain outweigh the good on nomination morning.  Remember than even if your favorite movie doesn’t get a nomination, life will go on.  The filmmakers made the movie to entertain and excite, not to win awards (despite what we might cynically think).

Without further ado, here are my final predictions for the names and movies Anne Hathaway will be calling out on Tuesday morning.  (NOTE: I’m going to limit my speculation as to who will win and try to keep it mostly about the nominations.)

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Oscar Moment: “The Blind Side”

2 01 2010

How do you solve a problem like “The Blind Side?”

Today, the crowd-pleasing movie crossed $200 million at the box office.  This is a number that cannot be ignored – people love this movie.  Only 17% of its take has come from opening weekend, a towering statistic which shows that the movie has survived on repeat business and word of mouth.  The movie has inspired and excited Americans, and the buzz even led to a full-hour special on “20/20” last night.  So, we have to wonder, is this a dark horse Best Picture candidate?

The movie could be buoyed to the top by Sandra Bullock.  Her year, which also included the smash hit “The Proposal,” has earned her attention and raves.  Her performance in “The Blind Side” has brought nominations from major groups such as the Golden Globes (who also cited her for “The Proposal” in comedy), the Broadcast Film Critics Association, and the Screen Actors Guild.  But is Bullock enough?

The movie stands at a decent 72% on Rotten Tomatoes, but there is a wide discrepancy between top critics (58%) and average moviegoers (93%).  Critics don’t decided a movie’s awards success; however, they do have a very large impact.  The critical champions of “The Blind Side” don’t seem to be incredibly passionate or fervent about it.  In fact, most of them that do like it simply cite that it made them feel good and not much else.

Here’s where it gets tough: trying to decipher voter mentality.  It’s hard to tell what the Oscar voters are thinking about their ballots this year.  We haven’t seen a year with ten Best Picture nominees in decades, so no one can be sure what to expect.  Are we looking at one of the most unconventional lineups in memory?  Or are we just going to be getting the same humdrum Oscar bait movies filling out the field?

If the voters want to choose something that made them feel good, “The Blind Side” might find their way onto some ballots.  I might not have been as inspired as some, but what better testament to the power of cinema is there than a film that has the ability to move you?  In addition, if the voters want to dispel accusations that their selections are pretentious and removed from the general feeling of the American populace in general, “The Blind Side” might seem a natural beneficiary.  It is a movie that shows how far a random act of kindness can go, and Americans love these heartwarming stories.

BEST BETS FOR NOMINATIONS: Best Actress

OTHER POSSIBLE NOMINATIONS: Best Picture


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Categories : 2009 - Oscar Moment, Oscar Moment

Oscar Moment: Predictions As The Ballots Go Out

28 12 2009

Oscar nomination ballots have now been sent out to the Academy!  Thus, I felt it was time to issue a new set of Oscar Predictions.  Since I last went on record, we have heard from a multitude of critics groups, the National Board of Review, and have received nominations from the Golden Globes and the Screen Actors Guild.  What conclusion can we draw from them?  I draw mine here.

Best Picture

  1. Up in the Air
  2. The Hurt Locker
  3. Avatar
  4. Precious
  5. Inglourious Basterds
  6. Up
  7. An Education
  8. Invictus
  9. Nine
  10. A Serious Man

Big changes this week, though nothing changes at the top.  I still think “Up in the Air” is going to win – and not just because I love it so much.  It is slowly picking up steam at the box office, and it is a movie that pretty much everybody really likes.  It is powerful storytelling with commanding performances, the recipe for usual Oscar success.

But its two biggest threats have changed since the last set of predictions.  “The Hurt Locker” has clearly established itself as the critical favorite, the movie that scores the most with the various critics groups from New York to Oklahoma.  This can be good and bad, but the good critical favorites are usually the ones that are mixed with audience support.  With only $12 million in the bank, it is clear that “The Hurt Locker” does not have this.  If people a more populist pick for Best Picture with the expansion of the field, this would most likely send a message of adherence to pretentiousness.

The opposite message would be sent with the selection of “Avatar.”  I resisted for as long as I could, but now it is virtually undeniable.  With critics clearly behind it and box office standing at a formidable $213 million, this has a lot going for it.  Yet it has a gender prejudice going against it.  Only rarely do action movies fly with the Academy; just look at how they snubbed “The Dark Knight” last year for “The Reader.”  I think many will see it as little more than a visual spectacle and technological innovator.

“Inglourious Basterds” has really jumped on the scene, getting top nominations from the Golden Globes and the SAG.  I didn’t think this was possible in August, but I guess I was wrong.

“An Education” didn’t really fall; everything else just went up.  Same goes for “Invictus,” but I think we are looking at this year’s “Frost/Nixon” or “Good Night, and Good Luck” here.  By that, I mean the movie that gets a bunch of nominations with no real chance at winning any of them.

“Nine” actually dropped, though.  Audiences didn’t receive it well as shown by the lackluster $5.4 million it posted Christmas weekend.  Critics aren’t digging it, and its Rotten Tomatoes score is now sitting at a dreadful 37% fresh.  On the other hand, we can’t forget that it did get a SAG Best Ensemble nomination over high-flying “Up in the Air,” among others.  This is a movie that the actors seem to like, and they make up a large portion of the voting body.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see it slip off the charts completely, but don’t count it out just yet.  (“Precious” dropped too, but I offer some explanation on that in the Best Director section.)

The tenth slot continues to puzzle me.  Now, I have it going to the Coen’s “A Serious Man,” but this is another big question mark.  It failed to get a nomination for Best Picture at the Golden Globes (where “It’s Complicated” did, so “ha!” to all my detractors on that one), which is pretty big considering that “Burn After Reading” made it last year despite being met with a slightly chillier reception.  And it pains me to pick this while so many of my favorite movies sit in the cellar.

Best Director

  1. Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
  2. Jason Reitman, “Up in the Air”
  3. James Cameron, “Avatar”
  4. Quentin Tarantino, “Inglourious Basterds”
  5. Clint Eastwood, “Invictus”

Bigelow has gained a lot of strength with most of the critics groups on her side, and I can now see a Best Picture-Director split between “Up in the Air” and her.  The momentum for her to become the first female director to win the Oscar may just be too big to deny.  Not to mention the fact that if “Up in the Air” takes screenplay and picture, Reitman will walk away with two statues.

James Cameron is the real star of “Avatar,” and the Academy will no doubt want to honor his work.  This is a project that he has had in his head for over 15 years, and his patience while the technology caught up with the idea should be rewarded.

Tarantino takes over the fifth spot from Rob Marshall because of the lack of love for “Nine” (which is mostly because of him).  The “Inglourious Basterds” love the critics, Golden Globes, and SAG have displayed is enough to get its director a nomination.  After all, it really is his movie.

Lee Daniels drops off the chart because of his Golden Globes snub when “Precious” was clearly well received by the group.  “Precious” has lost a ton of momentum from its release in November, mainly due to bumbling Lionsgate who refused to capitalize on the limited release success by taking it nationwide then.

People see the Academy as Clint’s cronies, which isn’t necessarily true.  Maybe they just set out to make a statement last year with their “Gran Torino” shutout, but I think that the financial success came too late to make an impact.  “Invictus” hasn’t exactly lit the box office on fire; however, I just get the sinking feeling that he is still going to get nominated here.  Call me crazy.

Best Actor

  1. George Clooney, “Up in the Air”
  2. Colin Firth, “A Single Man”
  3. Morgan Freeman, “Invictus”
  4. Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
  5. Jeremy Renner, “The Hurt Locker”

The only change here is Bridges falling to number 4.  He has only won awards from critics whose awards truly mean something like the Los Angeles Film Critics Circle;  Clooney and Firth have been taking all the others.  I’m getting a vibe that this a performance that is being honored for honor, not because people really love it.  I am getting the latter vibe from Clooney, who has been taking the prizes from a lot of the smaller, less renowned critics circles.

This is the standard top 5 now among almost everyone.  I can’t help but feel like there has to be some kind of shake-up here, some surprise nominee.  But who?  Maybe Daniel Day-Lewis will find his way in like always, or perhaps Matt Damon will surprise for his turn in “The Informant!”  He had a heck of a year, and the Academy could see fit to honor that with two nominations.  Just spitballing here.

Best Actress

  1. Carey Mulligan, “An Education”
  2. Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”
  3. Gabourey Sidibe, “Precious” 
  4. Helen Mirren, “The Last Station“
  5. Marion Cotillard, “Nine”

I’m sorry, but I cannot pick Sandra Bullock here.  I keep seeing all these raves for her and wonder if I saw the same movie and performance as they did.

I moved Sidibe back a spot because the critics awards seem to be hinting that this race will be a duel between Streep and Mulligan, the veteran and the fresh face.  However, I could see a possible vote split propelling the novice to victory.

With Abbie Cornish showing up nowhere and “Bright Star” seemingly forgotten, she falls off the list.  I replaced her with Marion Cotillard because the Academy loved her enough to give her an Oscar when no one knew who she was.  Even though the buzz on “Nine” is down, I have a feeling there will be plenty of love for the ladies.  Cotillard does have two emotionally wrenching numbers in the movie going for her.

And I’ll use this post to congratulate Meryl Streep on receiving her 25th Golden Globe nomination.

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”
  2. Stanley Tucci, “The Lovely Bones”
  3. Christopher Plummer, “The Last Station”
  4. Alfred Molina, “An Education”
  5. Matt Damon, “Invictus”

This is the category with the big shake-up this week.

Christoph Waltz is winning almost everything, so I can still place him in the number one slot.

Stanley Tucci jumps from off the list all the way to number 2.  I think its a mix of career achievement and a very good year (despite the apparent “The Lovely Bones” flop).  Christopher Plummer shares the former of these; Matt Damon, the latter.  I think the fact that Plummer is 80 years old, well-respected, and has no nominations is enough to get him into the field.

Woody Harrelson, Alfred Molina, and Matt Damon were the three men vying for my last three slots.  Despite Globes and SAG snubs for Molina, I still feel confident that he can make it.  Damon and Harrelson got the two nominations that Molina missed, so logic would probably say that they would be the two to fill the spots.  But I just get the feeling that Damon will get in because of the one-two punch of “Invictus” and “The Informant!”

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Mo’Nique, “Precious”
  2. Anna Kendrick, “Up in the Air”
  3. Julianne Moore, “A Single Man”
  4. Vera Farmiga, “Up in the Air”
  5. Penelope Cruz, “Nine”

No large change here.  Mo’Nique is becoming quite the juggernaut, and unless she goes full Eddie Murphy, there’s no chance she loses it.

If she does go full Eddie, Anna Kendrick takes it.  Her “Up in the Air” co-star, Vera Farmiga, takes over the fourth slot from Penelope Cruz.  “Nine” love isn’t very strong, but she is the scene stealer.  And she gets her picture here because she was too stunning not to feature.

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Inglourious Basterds
  2. Up
  3. The Hurt Locker
  4. A Serious Man 
  5. (500) Days of Summer

Tarantino’s dialogue has won over the Academy once before, and I think he may do it again this year.  He could be the new Woody Allen (for the Oscar voters) – just don’t tell him that I said that.

“A Serious Man” moves into the the nominees mainly because I can’t ponder hearing “Winner of One Oscar Nomination – BEST PICTURE.”  I know it will happen eventually, but I don’t think it can the first year.

If “(500) Days of Summer” doesn’t get nominated here, I will hit something.  It is too creative and brilliant to be ignored.

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. Up in the Air
  2. An Education
  3. Precious
  4. Invictus
  5. District 9

“Up in the Air” is still king here.  Even if it doesn’t take Best Picture, I have a hard time seeing it losing this category.

“An Education” moves up despite missing out at the Golden Globes.  There is a sizable British faction of the Academy, and they will see to it that he gets his just reward for this great screenplay.  “Precious” moves down not only because of the Globes screenplay snub, but also because of a general loss of momentum.

“Invictus” gets a bump up mainly because “District 9” moves into the field as a wild-card contender.  “Avatar” has probably dashed its hopes in the Best Picture field, so the Academy could reward it here.  This was a well-scripted movie that scored with audiences and critics alike, and it deserves more than technical nominations that it is bound to lose to “Avatar.”

So, what are your thoughts?  Am I crazy to still think “Up in the Air” will win Best Picture?  Or that Jeff Bridges won’t win Best Actor?  I’m dying to know what you think, so don’t hesitate to tell me!


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Categories : 2009 - Oscar Moment

Oscar Moment: “The Lovely Bones”

15 12 2009

In honor of its release in New York and Los Angeles, I figured “The Lovely Bones” would make good material for an Oscar Moment.

I have read Alice Sebold’s novel, the source material for the movie, and I have gone on the record expressing my distaste.  However, I am the member of a vast minority who feels that way.  A lot of people love the story of Susie Salmon, the 14-year-old that is murdered by your friendly neighborhood pedophile.  The story progresses with Susie watching from some sort of “heaven” as her family struggles to deal with her absence while hanging on to the slim hope that she might be alive somewhere.  I don’t mind depressing stories (in fact, “Revolutionary Road” is one of my favorite books and movies), but Sebold gives us such melodramatic plot and characters that there is no way to conclude with any sense of satisfaction.

As I read the book, I kept thinking to myself how it would not transfer well to the screen, especially Susie’s very vaguely written heaven.  One of the things I did admire about the book was how Sebold allowed the reader to make of this mystical place what they wanted.  She probably had her ideas about what it would look like, and I had mine.

Yet almost instantly after I finished the book, I heard that Peter Jackson was adapting “The Lovely Bones” into a film.  Although I had a hard time following the plot of “The Lord of the Rings” throughout the trilogy, I did admire Jackson’s ability to create such a fantastic universe for the series.  My initial reaction to the announcement was curiosity, and then followed by a bit of reassurance.  Spawning Susie’s heaven would be a daunting task, but I had a feeling that Jackson was one of very few who could do a good job of creating it.

The initial critical reaction seems to suggest that Jackson did not quite get it.  The film currently holds a 38% rating on Rotten Tomatoes (a 28% from top critics) and a 44 on Metacritic.  I’m a firm believer in the idea that critics don’t decide a movie’s awards success, but not even a fool can deny that they have an impact.  In the past five years, there has not been a movie with a Metacritic rating lower than 69 or a 68% Rotten Tomatoes rating nominated for Best Picture in the past 5 years.  I don’t think we can rule out Best Picture entirely, but Paramount’s blundering of the release schedule may have put the nail in the coffin.  In order for a movie that received this poor of a critical reception to score at the Oscars, it needs to be well-received by audiences.  And with “The Lovely Bones” not hitting most theaters until Martin Luther King weekend (only a week before nomination ballots are due), it would probably be too late to sway the tides in its favor.  “Gran Torino” learned this lesson the hard way last year.

Other than a Critic’s Choice nomination for Saiorse Ronan, the only blip that “The Lovely Bones” has made on the awards circuit radar so far has been for Stanley Tucci’s performance as Susie’s murderer George Harvey.  Tucci is a very likable actor who has always brightened movies with his presence, but now he has given a haunting performance that critics seem to agree is one of the few redeeming features of the movie.  He also has the success of “Julie & Julia” going for him, and the Academy loves to give nominations for a great year of work (for example, Kate Winslet ostensibly for “The Reader” but also for “Revolutionary Road”).  On a sadder note, there may be some sympathy for Tucci after losing his wife of nearly 15 years to cancer this May.

The only thing certain about the Oscar season is that nothing is certain.  So as much as I would like to say that “The Lovely Bones” is dead on arrival, I simply cannot.  Who knows what factors will come into play in the 2 1/2 months before the ceremony?  Maybe the movie will gain a huge surge of popularity that becomes too big to deny for Academy voters.  But only time will tell what happens.

BEST BETS FOR NOMINATIONS: Best Supporting Actor (Stanley Tucci)

OTHER POSSIBLE NOMINATIONS: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress (Saiorse Ronan), Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Visual Effects


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Categories : 2009 - Oscar Moment, Oscar Moment

Oscar Moment: “Crazy Heart”

9 12 2009

Here’s a little Oscar story for you, told just like a fairy tale!

Once upon a time, there was a studio called Fox Searchlight.  This was a specialty studio, so their job was to release movies that would be critically acclaimed and win lots of Oscars.

But in September, it was becoming inherently clear that things weren’t quite panning out for Fox Searchlight.  “(500) Days of Summer” and “Adam” weren’t really Academy-type movies, and “Amelia” was a huge bomb with critics.  With only Wes Anderson’s animated “Fantastic Mr. Fox” left to release, they didn’t seem to have any viable candidate for big categories at the Oscars (although some author’s commentary: Zooey Deschanel and Joseph Gordon-Levitt deserve to be nominated).

Fox Searchlight, who gave us last year’s Best Picture “Slumdog Millionaire,” had to do something to put themselves on the awards season map.  So they used a trick play and moved “Crazy Heart,” originally scheduled for release in 2010, up to December 2009.

“Crazy Heart” is about an aged, washed-up country singer who falls in love with a younger female journalist and begins the trek back to the place he loves the most: the stage.

Does this sound familiar?  Think back to just last year…

“The Wrestler” is about an aged, washed-up wrestler who falls in love with a younger female stripper and begins the trek back to the place he loves the most: the ring.

But the comparisons shouldn’t stop there.  Both movies feature a sort of “rebirth” performance from their lead actors who have been ignored by the Oscars previously.  Jeff Bridges, the main man of “Crazy Heart,” has not hit the depths quite like “The Wrestler”‘s Mickey Rourke, whose struggles with drug abuse were widely publicized.  Bridges, on the other hand, has been doing rounds as a valuable character actor over the past few years and has deep respect in the industry.  However, Fox Searchlight wants to make sure that we know that he has been an Oscar bridesmaid four times.  They also make the somewhat hyperbolic claim that this is “the performance of a lifetime.”  I think its pretty safe to say that all the hopes of this movie ride on Bridges’ shoulders.

And just look at the trailers.  They are practically the same, even down to the guitar-strumming melodies behind them (the tune for “Crazy Heart” is Ryan Bingham’s “The Weary Kind”).

So, will this be a fairy-tale ending for Fox Searchlight?  That’s largely up to you, the moviegoer, who makes the business, and the critics, who give the awards and write the reviews.  At the moment, the latter have not shown much love.  The Washington, D.C. Film Critics did not even nominate Bridges for Best Actor.

One interesting note: Mickey Rourke lost the Oscar to a gay man played by Sean Penn.  Could Bridges lose to Colin Firth, who plays a darker homosexual in “A Single Man?”

We’ll find out the ending on a Sunday night in March…

BEST BETS FOR NOMINATIONS: Best Actor (Jeff Bridges), Best Song (“The Weary Kind”)

OTHER POTENTIAL NOMINATIONS: Best Picture, Best Actress (Maggie Gyllenhaal)


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Categories : 2009 - Oscar Moment, Oscar Moment

Oscar Moment: National Board of Review Winners

3 12 2009

The first big awards of the season are here!  Below are the winners of the National Board of Review’s 2009 awards.

Best Picture: Up in the Air

Top 10 List (does not include the winner of Best Picture):

An Education
(500) Days of Summer
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
The Messenger
A Serious Man
Star Trek
Up
Where the Wild Things Are

Best Director: Clint Eastwood, Invictus

Best Actor: (tie) George Clooney, Up in the Air and Morgan Freeman, Invictus

Best Actress: Carey Mulligan, An Education

Best Supporting Actor: Woody Harrelson, The Messenger

Best Supporting Actress: Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air

Best Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air

Best Original Screenplay: A Serious Man

Best Animated Film: Up

Best Documentary Film: The Cove

Best Ensemble: It’s Complicated

Breakthrough Male Performance: Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Breakthrough Female Performance: Gabourey Sidibe, Precious

(For a full list of winners, see the National Board of Review’s release on their official website.)

Now here’s some more in-depth analysis on the results.

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Categories : 2009 - Oscar Moment, Oscar Moment

Oscar Moment: First Predictions!

1 12 2009

I’ve held off as long as I could on issuing my predictions, but now I simply cannot wait.  It is December and Oscar season is about to kick into high gear.

Don’t fret if you haven’t heard of some of these movies.  You will soon.  The National Board of Review, the first precursor that deserves to be taken seriously, issues its list this week.  Critics circles from all over the country will begin to put forth their lists, and then we get the Golden Globe nominations on December 17th.

So, without further ado, here’s my first stab at predictions.

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