12:00 A.M. S0 7 Oscars for “Gravity,” 3 for “12 Years a Slave” and “Dallas Buyers Club,” 2 for “Frozen” and “The Great Gatsby” … and none for “American Hustle.” The Oscars, so great and so cruel.
12:00 A.M. Steve McQueen jumping up and down, how joyous!
11:59 P.M. Seeing Paul Dano on stage makes me angry.
11:59 P.M. Two years in a row of a split Best Picture/Best Director. Wow.
11:58 P.M. Two years too late for “Shame,” but still glad for Steve McQueen.
11:57 P.M. Brad Pitt, now an Oscar winner.
11:57 P.M. BEST PICTURE: “12 YEARS A SLAVE”
11:54 P.M. YES ALRIGHT ALRIGHT ALRIGHT!
11:52 P.M. I think Woody Allen got more applause than God, yikes.
11:51 P.M. I see Matthew McConaughey’s mom, the real star of “Bernie!”
11:50 P.M. BEST ACTOR: MATTHEW MCCONAUGHEY, “DALLAS BUYERS CLUB”
11:47 P.M. Oh, Cate. So classy. And a beautiful dish on “Gravity.” Muted applause on the mention of Woody Allen, eek. Thank you so much for calling out Hollywood for not making movies about women and applauding intelligent audiences!
11:44 P.M. BEST ACTRESS: CATE BLANCHETT, “BLUE JASMINE“
11:34 P.M. BEST DIRECTOR: ALFONSO CUARON, “GRAVITY“
11:29 P.M. So “American Hustle” has now gone from once-frontrunner to completely blanked … it’s not going to win anything left. GRR! This reminds me of back in 2009 when “Up in the Air” lost Best Adapted Screenplay.
11:28 P.M. Nice, short speech – poor Spike Jonze, he should be less humble!
11:27 P.M. BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: “HER”
11:24 P.M. BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: “12 YEARS A SLAVE”
11:18 P.M. What an awesome speech to their daughters. Here’s to EGOT for Bobby Lopez!
11:16 P.M. BEST ORIGINAL SONG: “LET IT GO,” FROZEN
11:14 P.M. BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: “GRAVITY“
11:07 P.M. Also, they handled the Sarah Jones controversy nicely. Forgot to mention.
11:02 P.M. Ellen’s selfie broke Obama’s record for most retweets!
10:57 P.M. Wow, we lost some incredible talent from the film industry this year. Much of them too soon.
10:53 P.M. In Memoriam, here come the tears…
10:46 P.M. Of course, the first person on the Chris Evans-introduced montage is … Captain America.
10:44 P.M. BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: “THE GREAT GATSBY“
10:42 P.M. Wonderful outfit change, Ellen.
10:34 P.M. P!nk?! What the heck?!
10:31 P.M. THE FIRST OSCAR FOR ALFONSO CUARON!
10:31 P.M. BEST FILM EDITING: “GRAVITY“
10:29 P.M. Two years too late for “The Tree of Life,” but about time Lubezki gets his Oscar! (P.S. – Great shout-out by Bill Murray to the late Harold Ramis.)
10:27 P.M. BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: “GRAVITY“
10:26 P.M. “Baby, you look like $146 million domestic.” – Bill Murray, to Amy Adams
10:22 P.M. Jared Leto giving the pizza to his mom! Adorable.
10:22 P.M. Brad Pitt, waiter of the year.
10:16 P.M. What a beautiful speech by Lupita Nyong’o. Everyone is so moved, including a teary-eyed Brad Pitt. BRILLIANT! Melissa Leo, shame on you.
10:14 P.M. BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: LUPITA NYONG’O, “12 YEARS A SLAVE”
10:09 P.M. BEST SOUND EDITING: “GRAVITY“
10:07 P.M. BEST SOUND MIXING: “GRAVITY“
10:03 P.M. THE MOST EPIC SELFIE EVER TAKEN!
9:56 P.M. The tasteful simplicity of U2 and Karen O makes me realize just how tacky Pharrell was.
9:50 P.M. BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: “THE GREAT BEAUTY“
9:43 P.M. Seriously, why wouldn’t they show the dang Honorary Oscar winners in the crowd? Ok, one shot of Angelina Jolie…
9:40 P.M. YES TO THE FRANK UNDERWOOD ACCENT!
9:39 P.M. Hooray for Darlene Love getting her big moment in the spotlight! Standing ovation!
9:37 P.M. BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: “20 FEET FROM STARDOM”
9:35 P.M. I really want to see this short now. Like, SO badly.
9:33 P.M. BEST SHORT FILM (DOCUMENTARY): “THE LADY IN NUMBER 6”
9:31 P.M. BEST SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION): “HELIUM”
9:24 P.M. I’m melting, “The Moon Song” is so adorable!
9:22 P.M. BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: “GRAVITY“
9:18 P.M. I spent the entire first half of the montage trying to figure out what the song in the montage was … it was the theme song from “Revolutionary Road.” Ears, why didst thou fail me?
9:16 P.M. Aww, his son! Beautiful.
9:15 P.M. BEST ANIMATED FILM: “FROZEN“
9:13 P.M. BEST SHORT FILM – ANIMATED: “MR. HUBLOT”
9:04 P.M. “American Hustle” should win!!! Why did Harrison Ford sound so bored?!
9:00 P.M. BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: “DALLAS BUYERS CLUB”
8:58 P.M. BEST COSTUME DESIGN: “THE GREAT GATSBY“
8:56 P.M. Ellen to Jonah Hill: “No, I don’t want to see it.” Dig this running gag.
8:53 P.M. Time for a commercial break! This is like watching “The Wolf of Wall Street” – overwhelming.
8:52 P.M. Ok, Meryl Streep dancing … joyous.
8:51 P.M. That hat … Pharrell … stop.
8:47 P.M. Jim Carrey, you scare me.
8:46 P.M. Ellen’s picture reminds me of her 2007 shenanigans…
8:45 P.M. Nice of Leto to go shake Jonah Hill’s hand. And love the shout-out to Ellen. But best of all is his heartfelt tribute to his mother! A beautiful speech that gets political but not too touchy.
8:42 P.M. BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: JARED LETO, “DALLAS BUYERS CLUB”
8:40 P.M. “Possibilty #1: ’12 Years a Slave’ wins Best Picture. Possbility #2: you’re all racists.” – Ellen
8:37 P.M. “If you [J-Law] wins, I think we should bring you the Oscar!”- Ellen
8:36 P.M. So jealous of Nicholas Hoult right now…
8:35 P.M. “One of the nominees is ‘Her,’ and by ‘her,’ I mean Meryl Streep.” – Ellen
8:33 P.M. “Movies offer us an escape.” Gulp. THEY OFFER SO MUCH MORE!
8:32 P.M. Aww, June Squibb! Come on, Ellen, that’s kind of mean…
8:30 P.M. Ellen in pantsuit, called it.
8:23 P.M. So close!
8:11 P.M. The fashion winners, because obviously:
June Squibb is just too awesome!
8:03 P.M. And once again, I have mistaken the ending of E!’s program for the start of the ceremony. Classic!
8:00 P.M. BEST PICTURE AND BEST DIRECTOR WHAT IT CAN’T BE TIME TO PREDICT THOSE NO NO NO
Best Director
Will win: Alfonso Cuarón, “Gravity”
Could win: Steve McQueen, “12 Years a Slave”
Should win: David O. Russell, “American Hustle”
Should be nominated: Sarah Polley, “Stories We Tell”
The passion project 4 years in the making gives Cuarón an easy win.
Best Picture
Will win: “Gravity”
Could win: “12 Years a Slave”
Should win: “American Hustle”
Should be nominated: “Spring Breakers”
I go “Gravity” because it’s going to win everything else, it’s never wise to split Best Picure/Director, and I think people might be over-manufacturing the whole need for “12 Years a Slave” to win. I keep reading that people will not watch it. So I give the edge to “Gravity.”
And in case you missed the thread running through this post, “Spring Breakers” should be making a huge appearance in these awards if justice had been served this year.
7:54 P.M. Supporting categories – one easy, one that’s so tight I’m still agonizing about it.
Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Jared Leto, “Dallas Buyers Club”
Could win: Michael Fassbender, “12 Years a Slave”
Should win: Bradley Cooper, “American Hustle”
Should be nominated: James Franco, “Spring Breakers”
Leto wins this one easily. Too bad for Fassbender and Cooper.
Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Lupita Nyong’o, “12 Years a Slave”
Could win: Jennifer Lawrence, “American Hustle”
Should win: Jennifer Lawrence, “American Hustle”
Should be nominated: Emma Watson, “The Bling Ring”
I give Nyong’o the edge since J-Law won last year, and “12 Years a Slave” is more of a threat to win Best Picture. But I honestly don’t know!
7:46 P.M. Leading actor categories! The time is coming, I can barely type straight!
Best Actress
Will win: Cate Blanchett, “Blue Jasmine”
Could win: Amy Adams, “American Hustle”
Should win: Cate Blanchett, “Blue Jasmine”
Should be nominated: Berenice Bejo, “The Past”
No-brainer. Maybe Adams surprises, but I don’t think it’s going to happen. Amy Adams will win on her next nomination, I bet.
Best Actor
Will win: Matthew McConaughey, “Dallas Buyers Club”
Could win: Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Wolf of Wall Street”
Should win: Bruce Dern, “Nebraska”
Should be nominated: Robert Redford, “All Is Lost”
McConaughey walks away with this one … alright, alright, alright.
7:40 P.M. Can’t believe I’m already at the screenplays!!! Ahhh we’re getting close!
Best Original Screenplay
Will win: “American Hustle”
Could win: “Her”
Should win: “American Hustle”
Should be nominated: “Inside Llewyn Davis”
I’m hoping that David O. Russell gets his first Oscar win in this category, though Spike Jonze could get his first here too. The love for “American Hustle” ran deeper than “Her,” so that broke the tie.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: “12 Years a Slave”
Could win: “Philomena”
Should win: “Philomena”
Should be nominated: “Lone Survivor”
The only no-brainer for “12 Years a Slave” of the night.
7:30 P.M. J.Law just tripped on the red carpet!!! She’s my idol.
7:25 P.M. Cate Blanchett’s a little out on a limb with that dress, but she still looks stunning. Anyways, got to crank out more predictions!
Best Film Editing
Will win: “Captain Phillips”
Could win: “Gravity”
Should win: “American Hustle”
Should be nominated: “Spring Breakers”
I think the more traditionally edited “Captain Phillips” prevails here over the minimally edited “Gravity.” But it could easily sweep the techs.
7:21 P.M. Ok, finishing out the tech categories … I actually hadn’t even made up my mind before writing this, so here we go!
Best Production Design
Will win: “The Great Gatsby”
Could win: “Gravity”
Should win: “Her”
Should be nominated: “Inside Llewyn Davis”
I assume the opulence of “The Great Gatsby” wins out here, but I think “Gravity” or “Her” could surprise.
Best Costume Design
Will win: “American Hustle”
Could win: “The Great Gatsby”
Should win: “American Hustle”
Should be nominated: “Her”
This is a bit of a guess. I love what the threads of “American Hustle” said about the characters, though the more traditionally elaborate work on “The Great Gatsby” or “The Invisible Woman” could easily win.
7:08 P.M. If only someone foreign had arrived for me to usher in my prediction for Best Foreign Film…
Best Foreign Language Film
Will win: “The Great Beauty”
Could win: “The Hunt”
Should win: “The Hunt”
Should be nominated: “The Past”
As much as I’d love to see “The Hunt” happen, 21 months after I first saw it in Cannes, I think the Oscars are going to succumb to the opulence of “The Great Beauty.” Funny, last year at Cannes it had no buzz upon its premiere…
7:06 P.M. Jared Leto and June Squibb, officially dating – you heard it first on E!
7:05 P.M. June Squibb, so adorable!
7:04 P.M. Now that Naomi Watts has arrived, it seems like a good time to predict Best Hair and Makeup. (Bit of a non-sequitur, but who cares?)
Best Hair and Makeup
Will win: “Dallas Buyers Club”
Could win: “Bad Grandpa”
Should win: “Dallas Buyers Club”
Should be nominated: “American Hustle”
I think voters will be too embarrassed to vote for one of the other two nominees. “Dallas Buyers Club” seemed to have enough love across the board to score here. Surprisingly, its makeup budget was $250.
7:00 P.M. Ok, let’s get the “Gravity” awards – I mean, the technical awards – predicted. P.S. Lupita Nyong’o, you are adorable.
Best Cinematography
Will win: “Gravity”
Could win: “Inside Llewyn Davis”
Should win: “Gravity”
Should be nominated: “12 Years a Slave”
Emmanuel Lubezki will finally get his due, redeeming his snub for “The Tree of Life.” Maybe next year for Roger Deakins…
Best Visual Effects
Will win: “Gravity”
Could win: no one
Should win: “Gravity”
Should be nominated: “The Great Gatsby”
Duh.
6:51 P.M. Pharrell Williams … in shorts?! What?!
Also, Cate Blanchett, why did you have to be so good that I can’t root unequivocally for Amy Adams?! Ok, more predictions.
Best Animated Film
Will win: “Frozen”
Could win: “The Wind Rises”
Should win: abstain
Should be nominated: “Monsters University”
Another no-brainer. Maybe Miyazaki love surprises, but “Frozen” is too big of a hit to deny.
Best Documentary Feature
Will win: “20 Feet from Stardom”
Could win: “The Act of Killing”
Should win: “The Square”
Should be nominated: “Stories We Tell”
Similar to the above category, crowd-pleaser over intellectualism. Still so bitter that “Stories We Tell” isn’t here.
6:40 P.M. Jason Sudeikis and Olivia Wilde, still one of the more puzzling Hollywood couples.
6:34 P.M. In keeping with the theme of sound, here are my predictions for the sound categories.
Best Sound Mixing/Editing
Will win: “Gravity”
Could win: “Lone Survivor”
Should win: “Gravity”
Should be nominated: “Spring Breakers”
I know these categories are separate, but “Gravity” is easily going to win them both. (For those curious about the difference, sound mixing is the adjustment of sound levels and sound editing is the creation of sound. At least I think…)
SoundWorks Collection: The Sound of Gravity from Michael Coleman on Vimeo.
6:28 P.M. HOT DAMN AMY ADAMS!!!
6:26 P.M. More music predictions as I hear Pharrell’s “Happy” in the Fiat commercial.
Best Original Score
Will win: “Gravity”
Could win: “Philomena”
Should win: “Gravity”
Should be nominated: “Spring Breakers”
The sonic experience of “Gravity” will probably go for 3-for-3. Maybe Alexander Desplat finally gets his moment in the sun (much needed since “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button“) but the time doesn’t feel right.
6:20 P.M. So I just mistook Portia Di Rossi for Helen Mirren … yikes. So how about another prediction?!
Best Original Song
Will win: “Let It Go,” Frozen
Could win: “Happy,” Despicable Me 2
Should win: “The Moon Song,” Her
Should be nominated: “Young and Beautiful,” The Great Gatsby
Mega-hit “Frozen” ought to run away with this category, which has two chart-toppers gunning for Oscar gold. Though I’d love to see Karen O surprise and earn Spike Jonze his first Oscar. (Maybe if the newest version was in the film, it would have had a better chance.)
6:14 P.M. Viola Davis, so classy. You rock.
5:53 P.M. Come on, celebs, show up already!
5:41 P.M. I’m going to go ahead and log my first set of predictions. Might as well get the ball rolling.
Best Short Film (Live Action/Animated/Documentary)
Will win: “Helium,” “Get a Horse,” “The Lady in Number 6”
I made an effort to go see the shorts this year, but I was thwarted by bad weather. These are the general consensus across the Internet.
5:38 P.M. Watching Dave Karger dumb down his Oscar picks for the E! crowd is amusing.
5:30 P.M. Time to start the Oscars LIVE BLOG! The red carpet has begun on E! (I’m a little later than normal this year, my apologies for anyone who was really hoping for extremely early coverage.)
“American Hustle.” It’s tied for the most nominations of the day with 10, further cementing its status as the one to beat for Best Picture. It does have to share the title of nominations leader with “Gravity” since it missed out on what I assumed would have been a slam-dunk nomination for Best Makeup and Hairstyling.
Jonah Hill and Bradley Cooper. I’d like to once again point out that if you’d told me four years ago that these two guys would be two-time Oscar nominees today, I wouldn’t have believed you. Snaps for a remarkable career transition!
“Saving Mr. Banks.” Once considered a legitimate threat to win the “sentimental” Best Picture slot, the Disney biopic couldn’t even get a nomination for its leading lady Emma Thompson (who had racked up every necessary precursor to seemingly secure a spot). In fact, its only mention came in Best Original Score.
This may be the most stacked that the original category has been in a long, long time. Usually, it’s adapted that is an embarrassment of riches and original that has a dearth of contenders. Not so much in 2013.
After there, the race could go a number of ways. I’m thinking writers’ branch stalwart Woody Allen will show up here for “Blue Jasmine.” It’s one of his more acclaimed films in years, and Blanchett’s front-runner status in Best Actress has kept the film’s profile high. Only twice has Allen’s script missed a nomination here when the movie features an Oscar-nominated performance. He’s been nominated a whopping 15 times, so betting against him seems foolish.
Best Picture nominees generally tend to dominate the field in Adapted, so “12 Years a Slave,” “Captain Phillips,” and “Philomena” have pretty much already punched their ticket.
Last year, the director’s branch threw everyone for a curve by excluding two former winners (Kathryn Bigelow, Tom Hooper) and omitting the director of the eventual Best Picture winner (Ben Affleck) to include a first-time filmmaker (Benh Zeitlin) and a director working in a foreign language (Michael Haneke). I don’t think Best Director will have quite as many surprise this year, though.
As for the fifth and final spot in the category, the directors branch could nominate Alexander Payne for “Nebraska,” whose work was recognized by the Golden Globes. Or they could give DGA nominee Martin Scorsese his first Best Director nomination since finally winning in 2006 for “The Departed.” I really can’t tell which of these wildly different pieces will strike a chord with the eclectic directors. My sense is that Payne, twice nominated here for “Sideways” and “
Well, here, we are. My final Best Picture predictions. It’s down to “American Hustle” vs. “12 Years a Slave” vs. “Gravity” for the win; everybody else should just be happy to put “__ Oscar nominations including BEST PICTURE” on their DVD case. I think “American Hustle” has the edge at the moment, but the upcoming guilds should provide a clearer picture of who is really on top. After all, it’s those people whose opinions line up most with Academy voters.
That leaves us with several repeat offenders. “Her” was a Golden Globe, BFCA, PGA, WGA, and AFI nominee. Thought its quirkiness and boldness might not find favor with all Academy voters, it definitely has enough passionate supporters to at least gain a nomination.
And if they were to nominate ten, the smart money would probably be on PGA, BFCA, and AFI nominee “
The top 3 seem pretty secure to me. There’s a slim chance of Hanks falling out simply because this isn’t his first rodeo and voters might want to give their vote to a fresher face. But aside from frontrunners McConaughey and Ejiofor, very few of the top nominees are new to the game.
Blanchett has this all but sealed up now. It would take a major blunder on-stage for her to lose Best Actress at this point, but we all know that’s not going to happen. It’s Cate Blanchett – she’s about the classiest actress around.
Amy Adams is an Academy favorite herself though, racking up an impressive four Best Supporting Actress nominations in the past nine years. She’s never been recognized as a leading lady, and a nomination here would send the message, “We’re working on getting you that Oscar win one day, Amy, we promise!” Though she did not land a SAG nomination, she’s been recognized by the BFCA and BAFTA. Moreover, she 
While I remain hopeful that Fassbender can pull an upset, this category looks to be all Jared Leto. He’s been taking everything in his path, and I don’t think that will stop until the Oscar. For Fassbender, though, he should at least take solace in getting his first nomination without campaigning a bit. (If he had to work so hard only to be denied recognition for his astounding work in “Shame,” then why bother lobbying anymore?)
Cooper was passed over by SAG in favor of a posthumous recognition for James Gandolfini in “Enough Said.” While he was certainly a beloved actor, Gandolfini was more revered for his television work than his film roles. (“
It’s down to Nyong’o vs. Lawrence for the win here. Though Lawrence prevailed at the star-powered Golden Globes, I still have my doubts as to whether she can swing back-to-back Oscar wins. I think this category could also be a way for us to gauge on Oscar night which film will win Best Picture. Both films are likely to need one acting victory, and Best Supporting Actress is the most probable place to earn it. (Ejiofor has a shot for Best Actor, and that might pan out for the film.)
My guess is that the Academy will stick to some long renowned actresses to fill out the roster. Oprah Winfrey surprisingly missed with the Golden Globes for “The Butler,” but she’s been touted by the BFCA, SAG, and BAFTA. Even though the film has lost its buzz after it scored surprisingly well with the SAG, I think the Oscars will still want to give something to one of the few screen performances given by the cultural icon.
There seems to be no clear frontrunner a la “
As I said, I’m projecting Russell to go all the way in 2013.
Big, baity performances have won out here for the past decade, essentially. So I’d say the frontrunner has to be Matthew McConaughey in “Dallas Buyers Club.” His comeback narrative is appealing, and the fact that he lost a ton of weight helps.
Please, Academy, make this Amy Adams’ year! She’s been nominated four times already in Best Supporting Actress. Now that she’s playing with the big girls in Best Actress, maybe it’s just time to give her the darned trophy already.
Go big or go home. After being snubbed for his incredible work in “Shame,” I predict the Academy will right its wrongs and reward Michael Fassbender with an Oscar for “12 Years A Slave.” I really hope I’m right.
Honestly, this category is such a toss-up at this point, so I’m forced to pick the only person with buzz at the moment: Oprah Winfrey for “
David O. Russell is a two-time writing nominee? Check for “American Hustle.”
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