This is the first year I haven’t live blogged the Oscars since 2009 (well, except for the year I got to sit along the red carpet). I thought I’d write something profound after a calm show but … THAT ENDING. What. Just. Happened.
Also, my ballot is horrendous, but that’s because I chose deliberately unsentimentally. So pleased to see two wins for “Manchester by the Sea.” That’s all I really needed tonight.
11:01 P.M. Yes, I did get up to scream and cheer for that. What a fun surprise!
11:00 P.M. BEST PICTURE: “SPOTLIGHT“
10:58 P.M. Leo even broke character there for a second to show feelings, whoa! Glad to see a great actor get his due. And you know it wouldn’t be Leo without a political bent to his speech.
10:55 P.M. BEST ACTOR: LEONARDO DICAPRIO, “THE REVENANT”
10:49 P.M. In case Brie Larson wasn’t already on my good side, she just got there permanently by thanking film festivals and moviegoers for the success of her film. Bravo!
10:48 P.M. BEST ACTRESS: BRIE LARSON, “ROOM“
10:40 P.M. Didn’t Iñárritu have enough time to talk last year? Get him off the stage.
10:38 P.M. BEST DIRECTOR: ALEJANDRO G. INARRITU,“THE REVENANT“
10:31 P.M. “Room” deserved a better intro than it got.
10:28 P.M. Wow, people were not too happy with “The Hunting Ground” losing. But at least Sam Smith brought it home with a good speech.
10:26 P.M. BEST ORIGINAL SONG: “WRITING’S ON THE WALL,” “SPECTRE”
10:22 P.M. BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: ENNIO MORRICONE, “THE HATEFUL EIGHT“
10:15 P.M. Rachel McAdams and Kate Winslet crying are all of us. (And Chris Pine from last year.)
10:15 P.M. Wow. I’m so moved to witness a moment that can truly change the dialogue around sexual abuse in our culture.
10:10 P.M. I’m glad that some of my favorite films of the year – “Inside Out,” “Amy” and “Son of Saul” have won Oscars in their niche categories.
10:08 P.M. BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: “SON OF SAUL“
10:05 P.M. BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: “STUTTERER”
9:58 P.M. I miss Alan Rickman so much already!
9:56 P.M. Dave Grohl doing the In Memoriam is an odd choice.
9:53 P.M. Slay, CBI. The diversity and inclusion problem is bigger than the Oscars. Change is necessary at a more institutional level.
9:43 P.M. BEST DOCUMENTARY: “AMY“
9:40 P.M. The “Mad Max” joke from Louis C.K. is how everyone is feeling right now.
9:40 P.M. BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: “THE GIRL IN THE RIVER”
9:36 P.M. That was a very nice speech by Mark Rylance. I’m glad to see Spielberg guide another actor to victory. Hard to believe that’s only the second performance he’s directed to victory.
9:32 P.M. BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: MARK RYLANCE, “BRIDGE OF SPIES”
9:23 P.M. This is the quote that got me.
9:22 P.M. Kate Winslet’s glasses are so badass that they need their own Twitter account.
9:13 P.M. So, yeah, I started crying during Pete Docter’s speech.
9:12 P.M. BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: “INSIDE OUT“
9:10 P.M. Are they trying to make me cry with a “Toy Story” appearance…
9:09 P.M. When you go 6/6 and then drop 5 in a row…
9:08 P.M. BEST ANIMATED SHORT: “BEAR STORY”
9:06 P.M. People proudly waving their money in the air out there…
9:00 P.M. Jacob Tremblay getting up to look at the “Star Wars” characters is what the world needs right now.
8:58 P.M. So is this our “surprise” of the night? Let’s hope there’s still some magic left for “The Big Short” to pull through in Best Picture…
8:56 P.M. BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: “EX MACHINA“
8:55 P.M. Andy Serkis laying the groundwork to one day have the Academy recognize his incredible craftsmanship…
8:52 P.M. BEST SOUND MIXING: “MAD MAX: FURY ROAD“
8:50 P.M. Going to guess that there was an F-bomb in there.
8:49 P.M. BEST SOUND EDITING: “MAD MAX: FURY ROAD“
8:48 P.M. This is so sad.
8:40 P.M. BEST FILM EDITING: “MAD MAX: FURY ROAD“
8:38 P.M. Wait, there’s a special box for all the DPs to sit together? That’s awkward…
8:37 P.M. BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: “THE REVENANT“
8:34 P.M. Lighten up, Leo! Lighten up like your belt made your jeans light!
8:31 P.M. Does them playing “Live and Let Die” mean that J.Law will start dancing soon?
8:30 P.M. Leo and Iñárritu NOT amused by the bear joke.
8:27 P.M. And the announcer just talks right over Margot Robbie trying to pronounce the artists’ names.
8:27 P.M. Not the biggest fan of “Mad Max” but hard to argue with all these wins for its impeccable craftsmanship.
8:27 P.M. BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: “MAD MAX: FURY ROAD“
8:25 P.M. My gosh, they are just blowing through these tech categories…
8:24 P.M. BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: “MAD MAX: FURY ROAD“
8:22 P.M. Sheesh, did they play off Jenny Bevan with “Ride of the Valkyries?”
8:20 P.M. BEST COSTUME DESIGN: “MAD MAX: FURY ROAD“
8:19 P.M. Only Cate Blanchett could pull off giving a spiel like that on the go…
8:12 P.M. BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: ALICIA VIKANDER, “THE DANISH GIRL“
8:08 P.M. I was worried there for a second that Kerry Washington was not going to get to talk…
8:02 P.M. What on earth was that Stacy Dash thing? Was she in on that joke?
7:53 P.M. YES YES YES “THE BIG SHORT.” The big win I wanted tonight.
7:52 P.M. BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: “THE BIG SHORT”
7:48 P.M. Mics are so hot, picking up every word of Charlize up there…
7:47 P.M. BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: “SPOTLIGHT“
7:43 P.M. Awkward cutaway to Leo during joke using him…
7:38 P.M. To be honest, I thought the same thing about the Smith family crying sour grapes.
7:33 P.M. Opening montage not nearly as spectacular nowadays when I see them all the time on Vimeo/YouTube.
7:31 P.M. Well, that graphic was an interesting way to start.
6:36 P.M. Here’s my official ballot. Hoping against hope that “The Big Short” will prevail.
6:29 P.M. Told myself I wasn’t going to live blog … but couldn’t resist. Stay tuned.
10:03 P.M. 3 for “Boyhood,” 2 for “The Theory of Everything” and “Birdman.”
10:01 P.M. I love Meryl’s excited squeals for “Boyhood.” Ethan Hawke and Ellar Coltrane just shared a beautiful hug behind everyone.
10:0o P.M. BEST PICTURE (DRAMA): “BOYHOOD“
9:59 P.M. This show needed more Tina and Amy. Sigh.
9:55 P.M. Glad to see Redmayne is not above fawning over all the incredible actors. Sweet speech, charming guy.
9:53 P.M. BEST ACTOR (DRAMA): EDDIE REDMAYNE, “THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING“
9:52 P.M. Why is McConaughey speaking in that strange accent?!
9:51 P.M. BEST ACTRESS (DRAMA): JULIANNE MOORE, “STILL ALICE”
9:46 P.M. Wes Anderson naming off the names of HFPA members seems a little … um, awkward? Maybe slightly culturally insensitive?
9:45 P.M. BEST PICTURE (MUSICAL/COMEDY): “THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL“
9:43 P.M. Channing Tatum’s fake tan seems a little overdone tonight.
9:39 P.M. Michael Keaton’s son that he referenced in the speech, Sean Douglas, is a songwriter whose credits include Jason DeRulo’s “Talk Dirty.” Umm … well, that’s probably paying the bills.
9:34 P.M. Keaton thanks the HFPA for having a “comedy” category, but how much does it really celebrate comedies?! Anyways, nice to see someone as articulate and underrated as Keaton get some recognition.
9:33 P.M. BEST ACTOR (MUSICAL/COMEDY): MICHAEL KEATON, “BIRDMAN“
9:25 P.M. Richard Linklater: “We’re all flawed in this world, no one’s perfect.”
9:24 P.M. BEST DIRECTOR: RICHARD LINKLATER, “BOYHOOD“
9:15 P.M. Pretty sure McConaughey is sweating through his shirt. His jacket was definitely off.
9:14 P.M. George Clooney: “Thanks for keeping small films alive.”
9:12 P.M. Props to Disney for getting a clip from “Tomorrowland” into the Clooney montage.
9:08 P.M. Julianna Marguiles: “Has George ever asked you to tour a disaster area with him?” / Don Cheadle: “Yes, he invited me to the set of ‘The Monuments Men!'”
9:00 P.M. Hard to believe that two-time Oscar winning actor Kevin Spacey is only just now winning his first Golden Globe.
8:55 P.M. The backstage/hall cam is pretty awkward…
8:54 P.M. “House of Cards” snubbed once again. “The Affair” was horribly derivative in the one episode I watched.
8:46 P.M. Well, maybe Maggie Gyllenhaal’s “The Honorable Woman” will have to go on my Netflix queue. Here’s the link for anyone who wants to add it as well. I enjoy the sibling love with her and Jake, and I especially love her shoutout to the “actual women.” Basically, here’s my takeaway from tonight’s show:
8:44 P.M. Ok, is that how “Leviathan” is pronounced, all French like Lupita Nyong’o said it? I assumed it was “Luh-vie-uh-than.”
8:43 P.M. BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: “LEVIATHAN“
8:37 P.M. But is there still money in the banana stand, Jeffrey Tambor?
8:35 P.M. Don Cheadle is not in “House of Cards,” presenters. But, I will say, I would love to see him guest star.
8:33 P.M. Glad to see Jack Black giving love to the underappreciated Linklater. I totally want to see “Bernie 2,” Jack, I stand with you.
8:32 P.M. Didn’t hear any of the speech because my parents were talking…
8:30 P.M. BEST SCREENPLAY: “BIRDMAN“
8:28 P.M. Anyone else noting how much the people on stage are sweating? The AC has to be broken or something…
8:27 P.M. No proclaiming that Hader and Wiig were the stars of “The Skeleton Twins?” Come on…
8:26 P.M. Ok, the North Korean jokes are getting old. It’s just kind of insensitive and monotonous at this point.
8:22 P.M. Full text of the George Clooney feminist joke, thanks to BuzzFeed.
“George Clooney married Amal Alamuddin this year. Amal is a human rights lawyer who worked on the Enron case, was an adviser to Kofi Annan regarding Syria, and was selected to a three-person U.N. commission investigating rules of war violations in the Gaza Strip. So tonight, her husband is getting a lifetime achievement award.”
8:21 P.M. Patricia Arquette: “Meryl, thank you for giving me a hug, I hope your DNA transferred.” Also, glad to see the winning women standing up for women of all varieties.
8:19 P.M. BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: PATRICIA ARQUETTE, “BOYHOOD“
8:16 P.M. When they said Channing Tatum was in three nominated films tonight, I thought it must have been a flubbed line. But two of those were animated – “The Book of Life” and “The Lego Movie.”
8:14 P.M. BEST ANIMATED MOVIE: “HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON 2“
8:13 P.M. Kevin Hart: “I’m here for this, it’s not about ‘The Wedding Ringer.'” Yeah, sure…
8:07 P.M. Nice feminist moment for Amy Adams as she racks up back-to-back Golden Globe wins. Not her best role or film, but she’s just so sweet and likable, darn it!
8:05 P.M. BEST ACTRESS (MUSICAL/COMEDY): AMY ADAMS, “BIG EYES“
8:03 P.M. Where are Tina and Amy? MIA…
7:55 P.M. That could not possibly have been more awkward cutting between the shot of John Legend’s wife and the cutaway to Prince. “Selma is now,” said Common. Glad to see he also expressed solidarity with the two NYPD officers slain in the line of duty.
7:52 P.M. BEST ORIGINAL SONG: GLORY, “SELMA“
7:50 P.M. OMG – Prince! What a look!
7:48 P.M. BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: “THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING“
7:43 P.M. Too bad for Eddie Redmayne that the bomb that will be “Jupiter Ascending” drops on theaters as he’s trying to win an Oscar … Focus should ask WB to pull these trailers from awards broadcasts.
7:37 P.M. Bummer to see Julia Louis-Dreyfus go down. “Veep” is my favorite show … shameless plug.
7:35 P.M. Great to see artists stand up and cheer for freedom of expression.
7:33 P.M. Pretty shameless attempt to recreate the Ellen selfie…
Needed more people to top Ellen…
7:30 P.M. I just realized that I totally forgot a category…
Best Animated Film: “The Lego Movie” (alt. “How To Train Your Dragon 2“)
7:26 P.M. Potentially the best speech ever from Billy Bob Thornton. “You get in trouble for anything you say these days, so I’m just gonna say thank you.”
7:25 P.M. Ouch for the “True Detective” shutout. Have to say, I agree (even though I have not watched “Fargo”). The show was overrated.
7:22 P.M. Ok, these rapid-fire show descriptions are not helpful.
7:22 P.M. Jennifer Lopez looking like she might have a wardrobe malfunction/nip slip.
7:17 P.M. Glad Joanne Froggat is shedding light on the plight of sexual assault survivors. This is such a great platform to spread awareness to important causes. Bonus points for doing it without ranting or preaching.
7:14 P.M. Miles Teller getting some nice notice in front of the entire industry. And gotta love all the Jason Reitman love!
7:12 P.M. BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: J.K. SIMMONS, “WHIPLASH“
7:12 P.M. So did they actually flub the teleprompter? Was it actually spontaneous?
7:11 P.M. Hello, Jennifer Aniston’s leg.
7:09 P.M. Aaaand there’s the Bill Cosby joke.
7:07 P.M. Would you rather, Linklater or Iñarritu? “Once, five minutes per year” vs. “One take, two hours, no stopping.” Brilliant.
7:06 P.M. Tina Fey just dropped the mic for working women everywhere. Bravo.
7:04 P.M. A joke I could not type in real time – “Boyhood proves there’s still good roles for women over 40 when you get hired in your 20’s.”
7:03 P.M. Hi, Joaquin Phoenix! You da man!
7:03 P.M. Back off Emma Stone, she’s gorgeous!
7:01 P.M. Starting off with jokes on the Sony hack and the leaked emails – great, I guess, since Angelina Jolie isn’t there.
6:55 P.M. Since I’m running short on time, I’ll just post projected winners with alternates – and save my should win/be nominated picks for the Oscars live blog! Classic cliffhanger…
Best Picture (Drama): “Boyhood” (alt. “The Imitation Game“)
Best Picture (Musical/Comedy): “Birdman” (alt. “Into the Woods“)
Best Actor (Drama): Eddie Redmayne, “The Theory of Everything” (alt. Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Imitation Game“)
Best Actor (Musical/Comedy): Michael Keaton, “Birdman” (alt. Joaquin Phoenix, “Inherent Vice“)
Best Actress (Drama): Julianne Moore, “Still Alice” (alt. Reese Witherspoon, “Wild“)
Best Actress (Musical/Comedy): Emily Blunt, “Into the Woods” (alt. Amy Adams, “Big Eyes“)
Best Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons, “Whiplash” (alt. Edward Norton, “Birdman“)
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette, “Boyhood” (alt. Meryl Streep, “Into the Woods“)
Best Director: Richard Linklater, “Boyhood” (alt. Ava DuVernay, “Selma“)
Best Screenplay: “Boyhood” (alt. “Gone Girl”)
Best Foreign Language Film: “Ida” (alt. “Leviathan“)
Best Score: “Interstellar” (alt. “Gone Girl“)
Best Song: Big Eyes from “Big Eyes” (alt. Glory from “Selma“)
6:20 P.M. Well, running a little late due to packing, but I’m ready to start the constant glueing of my eyes to the TV and computer screen. I’m looking forward to a hilarious ceremony that hopefully features some deserving winners! I’m not necessarily pulling strongly for a single movie, so I guess I’m Team Boyhood.
12:00 A.M. S0 7 Oscars for “Gravity,” 3 for “12 Years a Slave” and “Dallas Buyers Club,” 2 for “Frozen” and “The Great Gatsby” … and none for “American Hustle.” The Oscars, so great and so cruel.
12:00 A.M. Steve McQueen jumping up and down, how joyous!
11:59 P.M. Seeing Paul Dano on stage makes me angry.
11:59 P.M. Two years in a row of a split Best Picture/Best Director. Wow.
11:58 P.M. Two years too late for “Shame,” but still glad for Steve McQueen.
11:57 P.M. Brad Pitt, now an Oscar winner.
11:57 P.M. BEST PICTURE: “12 YEARS A SLAVE”
11:54 P.M. YES ALRIGHT ALRIGHT ALRIGHT!
11:52 P.M. I think Woody Allen got more applause than God, yikes.
11:51 P.M. I see Matthew McConaughey’s mom, the real star of “Bernie!”
11:50 P.M. BEST ACTOR: MATTHEW MCCONAUGHEY, “DALLAS BUYERS CLUB”
11:47 P.M. Oh, Cate. So classy. And a beautiful dish on “Gravity.” Muted applause on the mention of Woody Allen, eek. Thank you so much for calling out Hollywood for not making movies about women and applauding intelligent audiences!
11:44 P.M. BEST ACTRESS: CATE BLANCHETT, “BLUE JASMINE“
11:34 P.M. BEST DIRECTOR: ALFONSO CUARON, “GRAVITY“
11:29 P.M. So “American Hustle” has now gone from once-frontrunner to completely blanked … it’s not going to win anything left. GRR! This reminds me of back in 2009 when “Up in the Air” lost Best Adapted Screenplay.
11:28 P.M. Nice, short speech – poor Spike Jonze, he should be less humble!
11:27 P.M. BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: “HER”
11:24 P.M. BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: “12 YEARS A SLAVE”
11:18 P.M. What an awesome speech to their daughters. Here’s to EGOT for Bobby Lopez!
11:16 P.M. BEST ORIGINAL SONG: “LET IT GO,” FROZEN
11:14 P.M. BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: “GRAVITY“
11:07 P.M. Also, they handled the Sarah Jones controversy nicely. Forgot to mention.
11:02 P.M. Ellen’s selfie broke Obama’s record for most retweets!
10:57 P.M. Wow, we lost some incredible talent from the film industry this year. Much of them too soon.
10:53 P.M. In Memoriam, here come the tears…
10:46 P.M. Of course, the first person on the Chris Evans-introduced montage is … Captain America.
10:44 P.M. BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: “THE GREAT GATSBY“
10:42 P.M. Wonderful outfit change, Ellen.
10:34 P.M. P!nk?! What the heck?!
10:31 P.M. THE FIRST OSCAR FOR ALFONSO CUARON!
10:31 P.M. BEST FILM EDITING: “GRAVITY“
10:29 P.M. Two years too late for “The Tree of Life,” but about time Lubezki gets his Oscar! (P.S. – Great shout-out by Bill Murray to the late Harold Ramis.)
10:27 P.M. BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: “GRAVITY“
10:26 P.M. “Baby, you look like $146 million domestic.” – Bill Murray, to Amy Adams
10:22 P.M. Jared Leto giving the pizza to his mom! Adorable.
10:22 P.M. Brad Pitt, waiter of the year.
10:16 P.M. What a beautiful speech by Lupita Nyong’o. Everyone is so moved, including a teary-eyed Brad Pitt. BRILLIANT! Melissa Leo, shame on you.
10:14 P.M. BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: LUPITA NYONG’O, “12 YEARS A SLAVE”
10:09 P.M. BEST SOUND EDITING: “GRAVITY“
10:07 P.M. BEST SOUND MIXING: “GRAVITY“
10:03 P.M. THE MOST EPIC SELFIE EVER TAKEN!
9:56 P.M. The tasteful simplicity of U2 and Karen O makes me realize just how tacky Pharrell was.
9:50 P.M. BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: “THE GREAT BEAUTY“
9:43 P.M. Seriously, why wouldn’t they show the dang Honorary Oscar winners in the crowd? Ok, one shot of Angelina Jolie…
9:40 P.M. YES TO THE FRANK UNDERWOOD ACCENT!
9:39 P.M. Hooray for Darlene Love getting her big moment in the spotlight! Standing ovation!
9:37 P.M. BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: “20 FEET FROM STARDOM”
9:35 P.M. I really want to see this short now. Like, SO badly.
9:33 P.M. BEST SHORT FILM (DOCUMENTARY): “THE LADY IN NUMBER 6”
9:31 P.M. BEST SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION): “HELIUM”
9:24 P.M. I’m melting, “The Moon Song” is so adorable!
9:22 P.M. BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: “GRAVITY“
9:18 P.M. I spent the entire first half of the montage trying to figure out what the song in the montage was … it was the theme song from “Revolutionary Road.” Ears, why didst thou fail me?
9:16 P.M. Aww, his son! Beautiful.
9:15 P.M. BEST ANIMATED FILM: “FROZEN“
9:13 P.M. BEST SHORT FILM – ANIMATED: “MR. HUBLOT”
9:04 P.M. “American Hustle” should win!!! Why did Harrison Ford sound so bored?!
9:00 P.M. BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: “DALLAS BUYERS CLUB”
8:58 P.M. BEST COSTUME DESIGN: “THE GREAT GATSBY“
8:56 P.M. Ellen to Jonah Hill: “No, I don’t want to see it.” Dig this running gag.
8:53 P.M. Time for a commercial break! This is like watching “The Wolf of Wall Street” – overwhelming.
8:52 P.M. Ok, Meryl Streep dancing … joyous.
8:51 P.M. That hat … Pharrell … stop.
8:47 P.M. Jim Carrey, you scare me.
8:46 P.M. Ellen’s picture reminds me of her 2007 shenanigans…
8:45 P.M. Nice of Leto to go shake Jonah Hill’s hand. And love the shout-out to Ellen. But best of all is his heartfelt tribute to his mother! A beautiful speech that gets political but not too touchy.
8:42 P.M. BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: JARED LETO, “DALLAS BUYERS CLUB”
8:40 P.M. “Possibilty #1: ’12 Years a Slave’ wins Best Picture. Possbility #2: you’re all racists.” – Ellen
8:37 P.M. “If you [J-Law] wins, I think we should bring you the Oscar!”- Ellen
8:36 P.M. So jealous of Nicholas Hoult right now…
8:35 P.M. “One of the nominees is ‘Her,’ and by ‘her,’ I mean Meryl Streep.” – Ellen
8:33 P.M. “Movies offer us an escape.” Gulp. THEY OFFER SO MUCH MORE!
8:32 P.M. Aww, June Squibb! Come on, Ellen, that’s kind of mean…
8:30 P.M. Ellen in pantsuit, called it.
8:23 P.M. So close!
8:11 P.M. The fashion winners, because obviously:
June Squibb is just too awesome!
8:03 P.M. And once again, I have mistaken the ending of E!’s program for the start of the ceremony. Classic!
8:00 P.M. BEST PICTURE AND BEST DIRECTOR WHAT IT CAN’T BE TIME TO PREDICT THOSE NO NO NO
Best Director
Will win: Alfonso Cuarón, “Gravity”
Could win: Steve McQueen, “12 Years a Slave”
Should win: David O. Russell, “American Hustle”
Should be nominated: Sarah Polley, “Stories We Tell”
The passion project 4 years in the making gives Cuarón an easy win.
Best Picture
Will win: “Gravity”
Could win: “12 Years a Slave”
Should win: “American Hustle”
Should be nominated: “Spring Breakers”
I go “Gravity” because it’s going to win everything else, it’s never wise to split Best Picure/Director, and I think people might be over-manufacturing the whole need for “12 Years a Slave” to win. I keep reading that people will not watch it. So I give the edge to “Gravity.”
And in case you missed the thread running through this post, “Spring Breakers” should be making a huge appearance in these awards if justice had been served this year.
7:54 P.M. Supporting categories – one easy, one that’s so tight I’m still agonizing about it.
Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Jared Leto, “Dallas Buyers Club”
Could win: Michael Fassbender, “12 Years a Slave”
Should win: Bradley Cooper, “American Hustle”
Should be nominated: James Franco, “Spring Breakers”
Leto wins this one easily. Too bad for Fassbender and Cooper.
Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Lupita Nyong’o, “12 Years a Slave”
Could win: Jennifer Lawrence, “American Hustle”
Should win: Jennifer Lawrence, “American Hustle”
Should be nominated: Emma Watson, “The Bling Ring”
I give Nyong’o the edge since J-Law won last year, and “12 Years a Slave” is more of a threat to win Best Picture. But I honestly don’t know!
7:46 P.M. Leading actor categories! The time is coming, I can barely type straight!
Best Actress
Will win: Cate Blanchett, “Blue Jasmine”
Could win: Amy Adams, “American Hustle”
Should win: Cate Blanchett, “Blue Jasmine”
Should be nominated: Berenice Bejo, “The Past”
No-brainer. Maybe Adams surprises, but I don’t think it’s going to happen. Amy Adams will win on her next nomination, I bet.
Best Actor
Will win: Matthew McConaughey, “Dallas Buyers Club”
Could win: Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Wolf of Wall Street”
Should win: Bruce Dern, “Nebraska”
Should be nominated: Robert Redford, “All Is Lost”
McConaughey walks away with this one … alright, alright, alright.
7:40 P.M. Can’t believe I’m already at the screenplays!!! Ahhh we’re getting close!
Best Original Screenplay
Will win: “American Hustle”
Could win: “Her”
Should win: “American Hustle”
Should be nominated: “Inside Llewyn Davis”
I’m hoping that David O. Russell gets his first Oscar win in this category, though Spike Jonze could get his first here too. The love for “American Hustle” ran deeper than “Her,” so that broke the tie.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: “12 Years a Slave”
Could win: “Philomena”
Should win: “Philomena”
Should be nominated: “Lone Survivor”
The only no-brainer for “12 Years a Slave” of the night.
7:30 P.M. J.Law just tripped on the red carpet!!! She’s my idol.
7:25 P.M. Cate Blanchett’s a little out on a limb with that dress, but she still looks stunning. Anyways, got to crank out more predictions!
Best Film Editing
Will win: “Captain Phillips”
Could win: “Gravity”
Should win: “American Hustle”
Should be nominated: “Spring Breakers”
I think the more traditionally edited “Captain Phillips” prevails here over the minimally edited “Gravity.” But it could easily sweep the techs.
7:21 P.M. Ok, finishing out the tech categories … I actually hadn’t even made up my mind before writing this, so here we go!
Best Production Design
Will win: “The Great Gatsby”
Could win: “Gravity”
Should win: “Her”
Should be nominated: “Inside Llewyn Davis”
I assume the opulence of “The Great Gatsby” wins out here, but I think “Gravity” or “Her” could surprise.
Best Costume Design
Will win: “American Hustle”
Could win: “The Great Gatsby”
Should win: “American Hustle”
Should be nominated: “Her”
This is a bit of a guess. I love what the threads of “American Hustle” said about the characters, though the more traditionally elaborate work on “The Great Gatsby” or “The Invisible Woman” could easily win.
7:08 P.M. If only someone foreign had arrived for me to usher in my prediction for Best Foreign Film…
Best Foreign Language Film
Will win: “The Great Beauty”
Could win: “The Hunt”
Should win: “The Hunt”
Should be nominated: “The Past”
As much as I’d love to see “The Hunt” happen, 21 months after I first saw it in Cannes, I think the Oscars are going to succumb to the opulence of “The Great Beauty.” Funny, last year at Cannes it had no buzz upon its premiere…
7:06 P.M. Jared Leto and June Squibb, officially dating – you heard it first on E!
7:05 P.M. June Squibb, so adorable!
7:04 P.M. Now that Naomi Watts has arrived, it seems like a good time to predict Best Hair and Makeup. (Bit of a non-sequitur, but who cares?)
Best Hair and Makeup
Will win: “Dallas Buyers Club”
Could win: “Bad Grandpa”
Should win: “Dallas Buyers Club”
Should be nominated: “American Hustle”
I think voters will be too embarrassed to vote for one of the other two nominees. “Dallas Buyers Club” seemed to have enough love across the board to score here. Surprisingly, its makeup budget was $250.
7:00 P.M. Ok, let’s get the “Gravity” awards – I mean, the technical awards – predicted. P.S. Lupita Nyong’o, you are adorable.
Best Cinematography
Will win: “Gravity”
Could win: “Inside Llewyn Davis”
Should win: “Gravity”
Should be nominated: “12 Years a Slave”
Emmanuel Lubezki will finally get his due, redeeming his snub for “The Tree of Life.” Maybe next year for Roger Deakins…
Best Visual Effects
Will win: “Gravity”
Could win: no one
Should win: “Gravity”
Should be nominated: “The Great Gatsby”
Duh.
6:51 P.M. Pharrell Williams … in shorts?! What?!
Also, Cate Blanchett, why did you have to be so good that I can’t root unequivocally for Amy Adams?! Ok, more predictions.
Best Animated Film
Will win: “Frozen”
Could win: “The Wind Rises”
Should win: abstain
Should be nominated: “Monsters University”
Another no-brainer. Maybe Miyazaki love surprises, but “Frozen” is too big of a hit to deny.
Best Documentary Feature
Will win: “20 Feet from Stardom”
Could win: “The Act of Killing”
Should win: “The Square”
Should be nominated: “Stories We Tell”
Similar to the above category, crowd-pleaser over intellectualism. Still so bitter that “Stories We Tell” isn’t here.
6:40 P.M. Jason Sudeikis and Olivia Wilde, still one of the more puzzling Hollywood couples.
6:34 P.M. In keeping with the theme of sound, here are my predictions for the sound categories.
Best Sound Mixing/Editing
Will win: “Gravity”
Could win: “Lone Survivor”
Should win: “Gravity”
Should be nominated: “Spring Breakers”
I know these categories are separate, but “Gravity” is easily going to win them both. (For those curious about the difference, sound mixing is the adjustment of sound levels and sound editing is the creation of sound. At least I think…)
SoundWorks Collection: The Sound of Gravity from Michael Coleman on Vimeo.
6:28 P.M. HOT DAMN AMY ADAMS!!!
6:26 P.M. More music predictions as I hear Pharrell’s “Happy” in the Fiat commercial.
Best Original Score
Will win: “Gravity”
Could win: “Philomena”
Should win: “Gravity”
Should be nominated: “Spring Breakers”
The sonic experience of “Gravity” will probably go for 3-for-3. Maybe Alexander Desplat finally gets his moment in the sun (much needed since “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button“) but the time doesn’t feel right.
6:20 P.M. So I just mistook Portia Di Rossi for Helen Mirren … yikes. So how about another prediction?!
Best Original Song
Will win: “Let It Go,” Frozen
Could win: “Happy,” Despicable Me 2
Should win: “The Moon Song,” Her
Should be nominated: “Young and Beautiful,” The Great Gatsby
Mega-hit “Frozen” ought to run away with this category, which has two chart-toppers gunning for Oscar gold. Though I’d love to see Karen O surprise and earn Spike Jonze his first Oscar. (Maybe if the newest version was in the film, it would have had a better chance.)
6:14 P.M. Viola Davis, so classy. You rock.
5:53 P.M. Come on, celebs, show up already!
5:41 P.M. I’m going to go ahead and log my first set of predictions. Might as well get the ball rolling.
Best Short Film (Live Action/Animated/Documentary)
Will win: “Helium,” “Get a Horse,” “The Lady in Number 6”
I made an effort to go see the shorts this year, but I was thwarted by bad weather. These are the general consensus across the Internet.
5:38 P.M. Watching Dave Karger dumb down his Oscar picks for the E! crowd is amusing.
5:30 P.M. Time to start the Oscars LIVE BLOG! The red carpet has begun on E! (I’m a little later than normal this year, my apologies for anyone who was really hoping for extremely early coverage.)
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Original Screenplay
Best Adapted Screenplay
Read on for my commentary on the nominations!
Big winners
“American Hustle.” It’s tied for the most nominations of the day with 10, further cementing its status as the one to beat for Best Picture. It does have to share the title of nominations leader with “Gravity” since it missed out on what I assumed would have been a slam-dunk nomination for Best Makeup and Hairstyling.
David O. Russell. Two years ago, there hadn’t been a movie nominated in all four acting categories since 1981. Now, David O. Russell has directed two straight movies and two straight casts to achieve that feat … in back-to-back years, no less. He’s nominated for Best Original Screenplay and Best Director; the man simply has to walk away with something this Oscar night.
“Dallas Buyers Club.” Kicking the Coens out of Best Original Screenplay was quite a feat, but showing up in Best Editing over “The Wolf of Wall Street” or a film like “Rush?” That’s a surprising show of strength.
“Nebraska.” Alexander Payne making it 3-for-3 on Best Director/Best Picture nominations is certainly a feather in his cap. Showing up in cinematography over “12 Years a Slave” is a surprise as well.
Jonah Hill and Bradley Cooper. I’d like to once again point out that if you’d told me four years ago that these two guys would be two-time Oscar nominees today, I wouldn’t have believed you. Snaps for a remarkable career transition!
Amy Adams. She stars in two Best Picture nominees and can now celebrate her first Best Actress nomination! For those of you following at home, that’s five nominations for Adams in nine years. It took Kate Winslet twelve years to get five nominations. So a win has to be around the corner, right?
Megan Ellison. Daughter of Oracle billionaire Larry Ellison, Megan has put her inheritance to good use by financing tricky projects that would otherwise be a struggle to make. Today, she was rewarded with two Oscar nominations for “American Hustle” and “Her.”
“Blue Jasmine.” Sally Hawkins getting a Best Supporting Actress nomination bodes will for Cate Blanchett’s win in Best Actress. I thought for a second it might have popped up in Best Picture, but it was not to be.
My Best Picture predictions! My projected lineup turned out to be the Academy’s lineup! Granted, I found this year relatively easy to forecast. Getting the number, though, is something that always worries me with the sliding field.
Big losers
“Saving Mr. Banks.” Once considered a legitimate threat to win the “sentimental” Best Picture slot, the Disney biopic couldn’t even get a nomination for its leading lady Emma Thompson (who had racked up every necessary precursor to seemingly secure a spot). In fact, its only mention came in Best Original Score.
“Captain Phillips.” Not that it was every a real threat to win, but missing out in both Best Actor and Best Director to “The Wolf of Wall Street” means it’s probably not in the top 5.
Tom Hanks. The two-time Oscar winner had been tipped to be a two-time nominee earlier this year. Then, his prospects dwindled for “Saving Mr. Banks.” But today, Hanks struck out with the Academy. Guess it’s only Meryl Streep who gets nominated for everything.
“All Is Lost.” A few months ago, people thought this would be a Best Picture contender. Today, it managed to only net one nomination … in Best Sound Editing. Robert Redford couldn’t crack the tight Best Actor field, which I did predict. Sometimes, they aren’t as sentimental towards older actors as they’re made out to be.
“Inside Llewyn Davis.” Guess the love for the Coen Brothers isn’t as deep as I thought. I knew a Best Picture nomination wasn’t likely, but no recognition for their fantastic screenplay? Robbed, I tell you, ROBBED!
“The Butler.” Potential Best Picture spoiler? Oprah Winfrey a lock for Best Supporting Actress? WRONG. Totally blanked.
“Spring Breakers” and “Stories We Tell.” While my favorite movie of the year was also the most nominated, my #2 and #3 selections did not fare so well. While the former was not expected to make any showing, Sarah Polley’s bold and brilliant feature should easily have scored a nomination for Best Documentary Feature. But alas, it was snubbed.
“12 Years a Slave.” Not a big loser, but not being the nominations leader makes its claim for Best Picture inevitability dubious. It could have tied “American Hustle” and “Gravity,” but it missed out on what I assumed would have been a slam-dunk: Best Cinematography.
Last night, I had a very stressful dream that involved me missing the official announcement of the Academy Award nominations. I then scrambled all day to try and watch a video of the presentation to no avail. So needless to say, I am very ready to find out who’s really in the running for this year’s Oscars! Now, it’s time to reveal my predictions for the top categories.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
This may be the most stacked that the original category has been in a long, long time. Usually, it’s adapted that is an embarrassment of riches and original that has a dearth of contenders. Not so much in 2013.
“American Hustle,” being at the forefront of the Oscar race, is probably the one to beat here. “Her,” however, could steal it in the end. Jonze’s incredibly original work took the Golden Globe, and it will likely find fans in the writers’ branch. Then again, they didn’t embrace “The Master” last year … the moment you think you have the Academy pegged, they change.
“Nebraska” seems highly likely as well. Even though the script was not written by Alexander Payne himself, the 2-time winner of Best Adapted Screenplay, the film still has his fingerprints all over it. A nomination would still be likely even if the film wasn’t in Best Picture contention.
After there, the race could go a number of ways. I’m thinking writers’ branch stalwart Woody Allen will show up here for “Blue Jasmine.” It’s one of his more acclaimed films in years, and Blanchett’s front-runner status in Best Actress has kept the film’s profile high. Only twice has Allen’s script missed a nomination here when the movie features an Oscar-nominated performance. He’s been nominated a whopping 15 times, so betting against him seems foolish.
“Dallas Buyers Club” is riding high off praise for its performances and may sail to a Best Picture nomination. Even without a nod in the top category, I could see it popping up here, like last year when “Flight” displaced “The Master.” (If you can’t tell, I’m still slightly bitter.)
There’s always a chance for a really left-field choice here, so who knows what could land a nomination? Could it be Jeff Nichols’ “Mud?” Nicole Holofcener’s “Enough Said?” Oscar contenders likely to be on the outside looking in such as “Saving Mr. Banks,” “Fruitvale Station,” “The Butler,” or maybe even … Alfonso Cuaron’s “Gravity?”
I’m leaning towards the Coen Brothers’ “Inside Llewyn Davis,” another fantastic showcase of their talents and potentially one of the few chances the film has at recognition. Though it’s been absent from the guilds, the Coens have always had fans in the Academy. The writers branch has nominated their work five times, and residual respect ought to bring them through.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Best Picture nominees generally tend to dominate the field in Adapted, so “12 Years a Slave,” “Captain Phillips,” and “Philomena” have pretty much already punched their ticket.
The category usually recognizes a few more unique adaptations, like a “Borat,” “Children of Men,” or “In the Loop.” This year, I think that slot goes to “Before Midnight.” The previous installment in the most unlikely trilogy also received a nomination in Best Adapted Screenplay, and there’s no reason why I don’t think its sequel will repeat. It’s debatable how “adapted” the story really is as it takes its basis from pre-existing characters, but that won’t work against it. The unique collaboration between director Richard Linklater and actors Julie Delpy and Ethan Hawke is worth rewarding in and of itself too for its uniqueness.
As for the last spot, I think “The Wolf of Wall Street” takes it even if the film misses out on a Best Picture nomination. The only other competition is “August: Osage County,” which has proved divisive and controversial. It’s also more of an actors’ movie, which works against the film when only writers determine its chances at a nomination here.
BEST DIRECTOR
Last year, the director’s branch threw everyone for a curve by excluding two former winners (Kathryn Bigelow, Tom Hooper) and omitting the director of the eventual Best Picture winner (Ben Affleck) to include a first-time filmmaker (Benh Zeitlin) and a director working in a foreign language (Michael Haneke). I don’t think Best Director will have quite as many surprise this year, though.
Alfonso Cuarón seems likely for a nomination, if not the win at this point. His “Gravity” is an undeniable testament to the skill and expertise of his direction. Even if the Academy doesn’t want to give their top prize to a science-fiction movie, Cuarón could still take home this prize. The man has been nominated as an editor and a writer previously, so respect runs deep through the organization.
Steve McQueen and David O. Russell, directors of the respective Best Picture shoo-ins “12 Years a Slave” and “American Hustle,” should also be safe. Russell even managed a nomination in Best Director last year for “Silver Linings Playbook” despite being snubbed by the DGA. He got the guild’s support this year, so he’s definitely a force to be reckoned with.
Paul Greengrass scored a lone Best Director nomination back in 2006 for “United 93” (perhaps the film would have been nominated in a field of more than 5) and seems likely to score another nod with “Captain Phillips.” His steady direction is crucial to the film’s success, and though it’s out of the hunt for a win, I’d be shocked to see it passed over given the respect for Greengrass and the film.
As for the fifth and final spot in the category, the directors branch could nominate Alexander Payne for “Nebraska,” whose work was recognized by the Golden Globes. Or they could give DGA nominee Martin Scorsese his first Best Director nomination since finally winning in 2006 for “The Departed.” I really can’t tell which of these wildly different pieces will strike a chord with the eclectic directors. My sense is that Payne, twice nominated here for “Sideways” and “The Descendants,” is more likely than Scorsese as “The Wolf of Wall Street” definitely has its detractors.
I’m inclined to think, though, that the directors will opt to give the final spot to Spike Jonze for “Her.” It’s a film that represents a clear directorial vision and creation. The movie is quirky and may not play well across the board to the Academy, but I think it should resonate with the directors. They gave him a Best Director nomination back in 1999 for his directorial debut “Being John Malkovich,” so there’s no reason to think he shouldn’t be feted again.
BEST PICTURE
Well, here, we are. My final Best Picture predictions. It’s down to “American Hustle” vs. “12 Years a Slave” vs. “Gravity” for the win; everybody else should just be happy to put “__ Oscar nominations including BEST PICTURE” on their DVD case. I think “American Hustle” has the edge at the moment, but the upcoming guilds should provide a clearer picture of who is really on top. After all, it’s those people whose opinions line up most with Academy voters.
“Captain Phillips” and “Nebraska” are also pretty much shoo-ins, collecting pretty much every major nomination necessary to secure a spot here. (“Nebraska” missed with the DGA, but that’s not the end of the world in an expanded field.) Again, neither looks like a threat to win here.
Aside from those five, however, it’s anyone’s guess as to how those other spots play out. Several films have popped up with a blip on the radar, such as “The Butler” (SAG), “August: Osage County” (SAG), “Blue Jasmine” (PGA), “Fruitvale Station” (AFI), and “Rush” (HFPA). Of these, I think only “Blue Jasmine” has the chance to surprise. The Producers Guild is a significant voting body, and their nod of support should not be taken lightly. But “Blue Jasmine” has been so quiet on the circuit otherwise compared to “Midnight in Paris.” Woody Allen’s respect in the Academy is deep, too, so there’s always an outside chance for one of his movies.
For SAG ensemble nominees “The Butler” and “August: Osage County,” I don’t think their critical shortcomings can be overcome with this nomination. While the actors may be the biggest component of the Academy, we’ve learned they are not large enough to power otherwise poorly-received films to Best Picture nominations in the era of the expanded field. SAG ensemble nominees “Nine” and “The Best Exotic Margiold Hotel” both faltered in their quest to be recognized in the industry’s top category, and the two aforementioned 2013 nominees will likely fare the same.
“Fruitvale Station” and “Rush” just never really caught fire in awards season, and I doubt that either can gin up the passion to gain the requisite votes for a nomination.
That leaves us with several repeat offenders. “Her” was a Golden Globe, BFCA, PGA, WGA, and AFI nominee. Thought its quirkiness and boldness might not find favor with all Academy voters, it definitely has enough passionate supporters to at least gain a nomination.
“Dallas Buyers Club” was nominated for SAG ensemble along with BFCA, PGA, and WGA nominations. The film seems to have a broad enough base of support, but there’s always a chance that the supporters aren’t very fervent. I think it ought to be fine, though.
“The Wolf of Wall Street” is very controversial, as I’ve said nearly any time I’ve written about it, but the film seems to have hit its stride just when it counts. Though it missed entirely with SAG, it’s been nominated by the DGA, PGA, WGA, BFCA, and HFPA. I think all that support means a nomination is extremely likely, but anything could happen.
I think the Academy might end up with just those eight, which would be a shame given how incredible this year has been for film. But if they nominate nine, I think “Philomena” would take the next spot. It’s a sentimental crowd-pleaser right up the Academy’s alley, and it’s British. There’s a sizable contingency of industry professionals from across the pond that vote for the Oscars, and they’ve been a crucial voting bloc that can often make a contender. “Philomena” has wide support from BAFTA, HFPA, PGA, and WGA, which I expect means it has the capability of scoring a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars.
And if they were to nominate ten, the smart money would probably be on PGA, BFCA, and AFI nominee “Saving Mr. Banks.” The fact that it was not nominated by the Golden Globes and SAG, though, strikes me as odd. Tom Hanks’ lack of traction in Best Supporting Actor, too, seems a sign of the film’s weakness. “Philomena” seems to have the market cornered on the heartwarming movie of the year. Maybe the industry is done with the self-congratulatory streak that powered “The Artist” and “Argo” to Best Picture wins.
Even though it was shockingly snubbed by the PGA and WGA, “Inside Llewyn Davis” was directed by the Coen Brothers. Their status as Academy darlings simply cannot be understated, particularly after their wins in 2007 for “No Country for Old Men.” In 2009, their “A Serious Man” managed to sneak into the Best Picture category with relatively little heat. The next year, their “True Grit” wound up with a whopping 10 nominations, and the Coens displaced Christopher Nolan in Best Director.
“Inside Llewyn Davis” hasn’t been completely dead on the circuit, picking up nominations from HFPA, BFCA, and AFI. It’s definitely a long shot, but don’t write the film off. I think if any movie stands poised to stealthily crack the field, it’s this one.
Check back tomorrow morning when the nominees are announced to see how I did in predicting them, along with further commentary on the announcement!
Well, folks, hard to believe that we’ll have a fresh batch of Oscar nominations in less than 2 days. Where has the time gone? Seems like just yesterday that I was posting my first (and, sadly, my only) predictions that included Naomi Watts in the thick of the Best Actress race for “Diana.” But now that all the ballots are in, the jury is still out on how a few of the races will go.
Who is about to have a great wake-up call on Thursday? I sort through the acting races races below.
BEST ACTOR
The top 3 seem pretty secure to me. There’s a slim chance of Hanks falling out simply because this isn’t his first rodeo and voters might want to give their vote to a fresher face. But aside from frontrunners McConaughey and Ejiofor, very few of the top nominees are new to the game.
Oscar Isaac in “Inside Llewyn Davis” and Michael B. Jordan in “Fruitvale Station,” both gave great breakout performances. Maybe in a less competitive year, they’d have broken through. In 2013, I’d be shocked if they could crack this field. It doesn’t help that neither movie seemed to gain much traction during precursor season. Past winner Forest Whitaker for “The Butler” and past nominee Robert Redford for “All Is Lost” seem unlikely as well as both of their movies have not been heavily recognized on the circuit.
Christian Bale stands a chance of showing up here, especially after netting nominations from the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice, and BAFTA awards for his electric work in “American Hustle.” He’s won once off his only nomination, which feels like a huge injustice for his vast talents. If there’s enough love for the movie, he could land a spot. But losing at the Globes, which clearly loved “American Hustle,” indicates that love for his performance may be wide but not very deep.
Bruce Dern has campaigned his tail off for “Nebraska,” and it’s clear that he really wants to win. The film has found plenty of fans, and it’s hard to see him missing out since he’s responsible for so much of its efficacy. He’s been nominated by the triple crown of SAG, HFPA (Golden Globes), and BFCA (Critics’ Choice), yet that’s no assurance of an Oscar nomination these days. It’s not shocking that he didn’t win the Golden Globe since the organization probably wanted the ultra-wattage of Leonardo DiCaprio up on stage. The Academy goes back-and-forth on being sentimental for veterans of the craft; I don’t think they’ll be able to resist at least a nomination for Dern though.
Upon its release, I would have counted Leonardo DiCaprio out of the race for Best Actor. But he’s been more active than ever speaking up for his movie, and it really pushed “The Wolf of Wall Street” into the conversation. The late surge of momentum may not be enough to counter his omission from both SAG and BFCA – DiCaprio netted the precursor triple crown for “J. Edgar” but still found no love from the Academy in 2011. The Globe win, however, gives me the sense that he’ll slide into a nomination.
It would be his first since “Blood Diamond” in 2006 … since then, he’s starred in “Revolutionary Road,” “Shutter Island,” “Inception,” “Django Unchained,” and “The Great Gatsby.” This might very well be a nomination rewarding that whole string of excellent performances.
BEST ACTRESS
Blanchett has this all but sealed up now. It would take a major blunder on-stage for her to lose Best Actress at this point, but we all know that’s not going to happen. It’s Cate Blanchett – she’s about the classiest actress around.
Bullock, Dench, and Thompson should all coast right in with no problem. All 3 prior winners have been nominated by SAG, HFPA, and BFCA, and their films all have a sizable base of fans to pull them through.
The last bit of suspense in this category will come on nominations morning as we wait to see if it’s Meryl Streep for “August: Osage County” or Amy Adams for “American Hustle.” Streep’s case is … well, she’s Meryl Streep. The Oscars rarely pass up an opportunity to nominate her, but maybe the reflex will not be as strong now that she’s won the third Oscar for “The Iron Lady” two years ago. She’s hit all the big precursors so far, scoring all the same major nominations as the previously mentioned actresses. Her film, though, has not been particularly well-received.
Amy Adams is an Academy favorite herself though, racking up an impressive four Best Supporting Actress nominations in the past nine years. She’s never been recognized as a leading lady, and a nomination here would send the message, “We’re working on getting you that Oscar win one day, Amy, we promise!” Though she did not land a SAG nomination, she’s been recognized by the BFCA and BAFTA. Moreover, she beat Meryl Streep for Best Actress at the Golden Globes.
It’s unclear if the Academy will love “American Hustle” as much as the HFPA did. I feel pretty confident, though, that respect for Adams and the film she commands will overpower the impulse to give Streep her bazillionth nomination.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
While I remain hopeful that Fassbender can pull an upset, this category looks to be all Jared Leto. He’s been taking everything in his path, and I don’t think that will stop until the Oscar. For Fassbender, though, he should at least take solace in getting his first nomination without campaigning a bit. (If he had to work so hard only to be denied recognition for his astounding work in “Shame,” then why bother lobbying anymore?)
Debut performances often fare well at the Oscars, especially in the supporting categories. 22 have been nominated for Best Supporting Actor, and I suspect that number will rise to 23 this week. Barkhad Abdi’s first role ever as the lead Somali pirate in “Captain Phillips” has been highly praised and won him recogition from SAG, HFPA, BFCA, and BAFTA. Especially given the praise that his film has received, I think a snub would be rather inconceivable at this point.
Though he wasn’t nominated by SAG, Bradley Cooper has collected every other key nomination for his work in “American Hustle.” The film is beloved, and his performance is one of the best parts of the movie – hilarious but also heartily dramatic. Two years ago, back-to-back Oscar nominations for the guy who was a staple of rom-coms like “Valentine’s Day” might have seemed an absurdity. Now I see it as a practical inevitability.
Cooper was passed over by SAG in favor of a posthumous recognition for James Gandolfini in “Enough Said.” While he was certainly a beloved actor, Gandolfini was more revered for his television work than his film roles. (“Killing Them Softly” was fantastic, just going to point out once again.) The SAG nomination committee has plenty of television actors, and that may have accounted for his appearance. Otherwise, he’s been spotty, picking up a nod from BFCA but not from the HFPA. “Enough Said” really hasn’t been a big part of the Oscar conversation, and I think that will ultimately cost Gandolfini a slot in this line-up.
The final slot is likely to go to Daniel Bruhl, who I really shouldn’t be doubting as he’s racked up nominations from all significant precursors. But aside from the Golden Globe Best Picture nomination for “Rush,” the film hasn’t really been lighting up awards season. Bruhl’s work is solid but seems to draw no fervent support. I could see him losing a spot to Gandolfini or even a left-field player like Tom Hanks in “Saving Mr. Banks” or Jonah Hill in “The Wolf of Wall Street.” In my wildest dreams, James Franco’s brilliant work in “Spring Breakers” could trump Bruhl. But I have to predict what seems predictable.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
It’s down to Nyong’o vs. Lawrence for the win here. Though Lawrence prevailed at the star-powered Golden Globes, I still have my doubts as to whether she can swing back-to-back Oscar wins. I think this category could also be a way for us to gauge on Oscar night which film will win Best Picture. Both films are likely to need one acting victory, and Best Supporting Actress is the most probable place to earn it. (Ejiofor has a shot for Best Actor, and that might pan out for the film.)
I think 84-year-old June Squibb is pretty much locked in for her fantastic performance in “Nebraska.” She’s had all the requisite nominations leading up to the Oscars, and her film is well-liked too.
The last two slots, however, could go any number of ways. Sally Hawkins got a Golden Globe nomination for “Blue Jasmine,” and the British contingency that got her a BAFTA nod could break her into the field here. I have to wonder if “Blue Jasmine” is purely the Cate Blanchett show, however. Scarlett Johansson’s vocal work in “Her” got her a nomination from the BFCA (it was ineligible at the Globes), but the Academy generally strays away from rewarding unconventional performances like that. Maybe Sarah Paulson, silent on the trail so far, could shock and give “12 Years a Slave” its second nomination in the category.
My guess is that the Academy will stick to some long renowned actresses to fill out the roster. Oprah Winfrey surprisingly missed with the Golden Globes for “The Butler,” but she’s been touted by the BFCA, SAG, and BAFTA. Even though the film has lost its buzz after it scored surprisingly well with the SAG, I think the Oscars will still want to give something to one of the few screen performances given by the cultural icon.
I think they’ll also be welcoming back Julia Roberts, who hasn’t been nominated since she won in 2000 for “Erin Brockovich.” As previously mentioned, “August: Osage County” hasn’t been met with rapturous acclaim. But it does have the support of the actors, who gave it a coveted Best Ensemble nomination at the SAG Awards. If anything for the film is recognized, it will be the acting. And Roberts, who many view as a co-lead, is the most likely to reap the goodwill.
Check back tomorrow to see my predictions for the writing/directing categories as well as the granddaddy of them all … BEST PICTURE!
11:00 P.M. I’m fine with any awards show where “American Hustle” leads the awards tally with 3 trophies. 2 for “Dallas Buyers Club.” Every other movie just had one.
10:58 P.M. So “12 Years a Slave” wins Best Picture and nothing else? Huh? Surely it will add Best Adapted Screenplay and a technical award or two at the Oscars (if it can fend off “American Hustle”). Glad Steve McQueen got to give the speech!
10:57 P.M. BEST PICTURE (DRAMA): “12 YEARS A SLAVE”
10:51 P.M. Kicking myself for not having seen “Dallas Buyers Club.” McConaughey’s acceptance speeches are good. Definitely going to be this year’s entertainment on the circuit.
10:49 P.M. BEST ACTOR (DRAMA): MATTHEW MCCONAUGHEY, “DALLAS BUYERS CLUB”
10:47 P.M. That’s right, a standing ovation. Here’s to Cate Blanchett.
10:46 P.M. BEST ACTRESS (DRAMA): CATE BLANCHETT, “BLUE JASMINE“
10:45 P.M. My gosh, Leo. How many acceptance speeches do you want?
10:40 P.M. I’m so much more interested in what Megan Ellison, Jennifer Lawrence, and Bradley Cooper are whispering than the producer … but SO elated about this win!
10:38 P.M. BEST PICTURE (MUSICAL/COMEDY): “AMERICAN HUSTLE”
10:35 P.M. Niki Lauda, the Bill Clinton cameo of the year.
10:28 P.M. Nice tribute to all the “comedians” in the category by DiCaprio. Glad this isn’t my Oscar ballot because it would be in shambles…
10:27 P.M. BEST ACTOR (MUSICAL/COMEDY): LEONARDO DICAPRIO, “THE WOLF OF WALL STREET“
10:22 P.M. Fantastic Michael Bay dig, Tina! Also, looks like I need to start watching “Brooklyn Nine-Nine.”
10:19 P.M. How is “12 Years a Slave” 0/5 so far?!
10:17 P.M. BEST DIRECTOR: ALFONSO CUARÓN, “GRAVITY”
10:10 P.M. Hearing Diane Keaton sing was magical. Her bleep, not so much…
10:06 P.M. This is an epic montage. I want it – no, I need it.
10:03 P.M. Go Woody Allen!
9:56 P.M. What was Amy Poehler’s bigger win of the night, the Golden Globe or the kiss from Bono? So glad to see her take home the trophy! Another great TV pick for the HFPA.
9:52 P.M. BEST ANIMATED FEATURE – “FROZEN“
9:43 P.M. Loving all the Julia Louis-Dreyfus attention tonight.
9:41 P.M. BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM – “THE GREAT BEAUTY”
9:37 P.M. “Muppets Most Wanted” – bravo. Best commercial I’ve seen in a long time.
9:35 P.M. Best Actor Andy Samberg, who woulda thunk it?
9:30 P.M. Must. See. “Her.” And Spike Jonze is adorable. “Hold on, I just started!”
9:29 P.M. BEST SCREENPLAY – “HER”
9:28 P.M. Digging the shoes-off and martini-in-hand for Emma Thompson.
9:22 P.M. So I guess now I need to see “Dallas Buyers Club,” but all this waxing talk is … interesting. Although, hey, I finally got one of my picks right!
9:21 P.M. BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR – JARED LETO, “DALLAS BUYERS CLUB”
9:18 P.M. Between Bryan Cranston and Robin Wright, really digging the HFPA’s television selections this year.
9:16 P.M. Amy Poehler is probably the only person in the world that can get that close to Harvey Weinstein…
9:09 P.M. Loving all the “American Hustle” love, HFPA! What a beautiful speech by Amy Adams. I’m now 0/4 but really happy about at least 2 of those.
9:08 P.M. BEST ACTRESS (MUSICAL/COMEDY) – AMY ADAMS, “AMERICAN HUSTLE”
9:04 P.M. What is with all these awkward pauses before the speeches start?
8:55 P.M. Diddy Dirty Money is druuuuuuunk. I really shouldn’t have been surprised to see U2 win. I’m now 0/3 tonight, whoops.
8:53 P.M. BEST ORIGINAL SONG – ORDINARY LOVE, “MANDELA: LONG WALK TO FREEDOM”
8:52 P.M. Alex Ebert’s hair tonight tops Joaquin Phoenix’s. Definitely didn’t see this win coming.
8:50 P.M. BEST ORIGINAL SCORE – “ALL IS LOST”
8:48 P.M. Proud to have once walked a red carpet and attended a screening with the real Philomena Lee!
8:43 P.M. Aww, Aaron Paul crying in the background!
8:39 P.M. Finally, Bryan Cranston wins for “Breaking Bad!”
8:36 P.M. Teleprompter fail. Would have been great if Jonah Hill and Margot Robbie had pretended to be Aaron Eckhart and Paula Patton.
8:27 P.M. Go Peggy! Also, with the win for “Behind the Candelabra,” one has to wonder how it would have fared in the Oscar race had it been released in theaters.
8:18 P.M. Jacqueline Bisset totally dominates the play-off music, even after a Melissa Leo-esque bleep out.
8:13 P.M. So will Jennifer Lawrence make it back-to-back Oscar wins? SAG will tell us soon enough.
8:11 P.M. Two in a row for J.Law. She is unstoppable.
8:10 P.M. BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS – JENNIFER LAWRENCE, “AMERICAN HUSTLE”
8:08 P.M. I can’t even keep up with all the brilliant Tina Fey and Amy Poehler jokes. I’m dying.
8:05 P.M. Julia Louis-Dreyfus turning down Reese Witherspoon’s selfie just made my day.
8:03 P.M. Matt Damon = “basically a garbage person.”
8:01 P.M. Awkward reference to the non-nominated “The Butler.”
7:53 P.M. Final predictions, ahh!
Best Picture – Drama
Will win: “12 Years a Slave”
Could win: “Gravity”
Should win: “Philomena”
Again, thinking “12 Years a Slave” runs the board. But it could go to “Gravity.”
Best Picture – Musical/Comedy
Will win: “American Hustle”
Could win: “Nebraska”
Should win: “American Hustle”
I feel fairly certain that nomination leader “American Hustle” will win this one easily. But in what might be the most competitive year in this category ever, it’s anyone’s game.
7:49 P.M. Getting close to showtime, folks!
Best Director
Will win: Steve McQueen, “12 Years a Slave”
Could win: Alfonso Cuarón, “Gravity”
Should win: David O. Russell, “American Hustle”
Could go either way between McQueen and Cuarón. Globes went James Cameron in 2009 for “Avatar,” so perhaps they’ll show a similar proclivity for sci-fi. But I stick with the more traditional pick.
Best Screenplay
Will win: “American Hustle”
Could win: “Her”
Should win: “American Hustle”
No clue here. I think “American Hustle,” “Her,” and “12 Years a Slave” are all possible. Opting for the first of the three just on a hunch.
7:43 P.M. Now, their dramatic counterparts.
Best Actor – Drama
Will win: Matthew McConaughey, “Dallas Buyers Club”
Could win: Chiwetel Ejiofor, “12 Years a Slave”
Should win: Robert Redford, “All Is Lost”
Have a gut feeling the Globes are loving the McConaughey redemption vibe. But Ejiofor is in the more beloved film, so who really knows what will happen?
Best Actress – Drama
Will win: Cate Blanchett, “Blue Jasmine”
Could win: Sandra Bullock, “Gravity”
Should win: Cate Blanchett, “Blue Jasmine”
Probably the only no-brainer of the evening. Blanchett runs away with it.
7:38 P.M. Comedy predictions time!
Best Actor – Comedy
Will win: Christian Bale, “American Hustle”
Could win: Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Wolf of Wall Street”
Should win: Oscar Isaac, “Inside Llewyn Davis”
5 leading men from 5 Best Picture nominees – honestly, all have their claim. I’m sticking with Bale for the likely Best Picture champion, but DiCaprio could easily take this. The Globes love him.
Best Actress – Comedy
Will win: Meryl Streep, “August: Osage County”
Could win: Amy Adams, “American Hustle”
Should win: Amy Adams, “American Hustle”
Maybe Adams takes it for the more beloved film, but Meryl has eight Golden Globes. They’re kind of into her.
7:33 P.M. Jessica Chastain channeling “Black Swan” tonight … picture to come later.
7:31 P.M. Tina Fey and Amy Poehler rock! Now you might actually care about these predictions…
Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Jared Leto, “Dallas Buyers Club”
Could win: Michael Fassbender, “12 Years a Slave”
Should win: Michael Fassbender, “12 Years a Slave”
Haven’t seen “Dallas Buyers Club” (I know, that’s bad) but Leto has been collecting nearly every prize so far. Can’t imagine he’s better than the demented Fassbender, though.
Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Lupita Nyong’o, “12 Years a Slave”
Could win: Jennifer Lawrence, “American Hustle”
Should win: Lupita Nyong’o, “12 Years a Slave”
While she might lack the name recognition, I think Nyong’o’s incredible performance will speak for itself.
7:26 P.M. And some more predictions! Cate Blanchett has just arrived, and I thought she looked great … then they panned down on her dress.
Best Original Song
Will win: Let It Go, “Frozen”
Could win: Please Mr. Kennedy, “Inside Llewyn Davis”
Should win: Please Mr. Kennedy, “Inside Llewyn Davis”
A typical Disney tune should eke out a victory over some lesser-known contenders.
Best Original Score
Will win: “12 Years a Slave”
Could win: “Gravity”
Should win: “12 Years a Slave”
Giving the edge to better-known composer Zimmer in a race likely between the two dramatic Best Picture heavyweights.
7:21 P.M. Ok, first predictions.
Best Foreign Film
Will win: “Blue is the Warmest Color”
Could win: “The Hunt”
Should win: “The Past”
Only chance for this film to shine. So I’m thinking it will.
Best Animated Film
Will win: “Frozen”
Could win: “Monsters University“ “Despicable Me 2”
Should win: “Monsters University“ n/a
One of the weaker years for this category, but box office smash “Frozen” probably has the upper hand here. [UPDATED: So “Monsters University” wasn’t even nominated…]
7:15 P.M. JENNIFER LAWRENCE SIGHTING!
7:12 P.M. Team “American Hustle” tonight. Go, fight, win!
7:11 P.M. Time to start the annual live blog!
Well, folks, the time is here to talk about Oscar season. The Venice Film Festival kicks off tomorrow, and suddenly it won’t be taboo to talk about what might be competing for the Academy Awards.
Just to show you how much things change over the course of the fall, last year I predicted “The Master” to win Best Picture at this time – and it wound up not being nominated. I was close for Best Director and Best Actor, though, ranking Ang Lee and Daniel Day-Lewis my #2 pick in their respective categories. Jennifer Lawrence was not remotely on my radar, but my projected winner Quvenzhané Wallis did manage to get a nomination! I got the movie right for Best Supporting Actor, but picked Leonardo DiCaprio instead of Christoph Waltz as the “Django Unchained” cast member to hoist the Oscar. And I, like everyone else, saw Anne Hathaway’s win coming from the moment the first “Les Misérables” trailer hit the web.
So what will surprise us this year? And what will disappoint? Here’s my first draft at a year in Oscar forecasting.
Best Picture
There seems to be no clear frontrunner a la “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” or “War Horse” for 2013. So I’m just going to gander it’s a dues-paying year. It seems like David O. Russell, after two straight Best Picture-Best Director nominations for “The Fighter” and “Silver Linings Playbook,” is now on the fast track to win someday. So why not 2013 with “American Hustle?” A glitzy period drama that looks to provide action, comedy, and drama looks pretty good on paper to me.
Another film I could see making a charge at the prize is Steve McQueen’s “12 Years A Slave.” Despite all the talent involved in this film, I think it might still be an underdog given that McQueen’s previous two films have not received a single Oscar nomination. Then again, Tom Hooper was a relative novice when he directed “The King’s Speech,” and we know how that story ends.
Previous Best Director nominees Bennett Miller (“Foxcatcher”), George Clooney (“The Monuments Men”), Spike Jonze (“Her”), the Coen Brothers (“Inside Llewyn Davis”), and Jason Reitman (“Labor Day”) all look to get in the Best Picture race. Based on their pedigree alone, I’m predicting nominations for these five films. All are sight unseen, save “Inside Llewyn Davis,” which I have seen and can attest is the kind of well-made film that will score with the Academy.
I guess I could include Alfonso Cuaron’s “Gravity” in this clump, since the film’s director is an Oscar-nominated screenwriter and editor. But that film gets a Best Picture nomination, in my mind, because it belongs in a class with “Avatar,” “Hugo,” and “Life of Pi” – technical masterpieces directed by renowned talents.
As for “August: Osage County,” that play is so well-written that it would take a first-class hack job for it not to be a Best Picture nominee. We’re talking a play that will go next to Arthur Miller and Tennessee Williams in the American dramatic literature canon, people.
And to round out the top 10, I picked Ben Stiller’s “The Secret Life of Walter Mitty.” I’m not entirely sold on it, but it could make a surprise run for Best Picture. It could also fizzle with awards voters. Who knows? Clearly not I.
Best Director
As I said, I’m projecting Russell to go all the way in 2013.
Past nominee Bennett Miller could give him a run for his money, although he was overlooked for his work on 2011 Best Picture nominee “Moneyball.” Steve McQueen and Alfonso Cuaron should score their first Best Director nominations (which is a shame).
And since Spike Jonze scored a lone Best Director nomination for “Being John Malkovich” back in 1999, I don’t think it’s out of the question to see him score a second nomination for his work on “Her.” It certainly appears to be daring … and the director’s branch showed they were willing to go out on a limb last year with nominees Benh Zeitlin and Michael Haneke.
Best Actor
Big, baity performances have won out here for the past decade, essentially. So I’d say the frontrunner has to be Matthew McConaughey in “Dallas Buyers Club.” His comeback narrative is appealing, and the fact that he lost a ton of weight helps.
That being said, I wouldn’t count out Joaquin Phoenix for “Her.” If he could get nominated for a polarizing film like “The Master,” perhaps there’s more respect for Phoenix in the Academy than most people recognize. He’s been nominated three times now, and I think it’s only a matter of time before he wins.
Chiwetel Ejiofor could easily supplant McConaughey as the bait performance to beat here. A frontrunner will be cemented by the time both films debut at Toronto.
Breakout performer Oscar Isaac ought to score a nod here for “Inside Llewyn Davis.” I don’t see how he can be overlooked if the movie is a hit with the Academy.
And keep an eye out for Robert Redford here. He gives an incredible, virtually wordless performance in “All Is Lost” that will not be forgotten. The Hollywood legend hasn’t been nominated for his acting in over 40 years, and the one Oscar sitting on his mantle is for directing. Might it be his time in the sun?
Best Actress
Please, Academy, make this Amy Adams’ year! She’s been nominated four times already in Best Supporting Actress. Now that she’s playing with the big girls in Best Actress, maybe it’s just time to give her the darned trophy already.
Woody Allen hasn’t directed a woman to a leading actress win since Diane Keaton in “Annie Hall” – perhaps Cate Blanchett’s turn in “Blue Jasmine” can break the dry spell? I think she’s a sure bet for a nomination, but another win is unlikely since Blanchett has won in the past decade.
Or maybe it’s Naomi Watts’ turn after coming up short for last year’s “The Impossible.” If the Academy loves this two-time nominee, an uncanny performance as Princess Diana would be a good time to give it to her.
Kate Winslet has been nominated for six Oscars and has won one. So why would the love stop now? In her first notable screen performance since winning for 2008’s “The Reader,” she could rack up nomination number 7 and be well on her way to becoming the Meryl Streep of her generation.
Speaking of Meryl Streep, I could be making a mistake by not including her here. She would definitely crack my top 5, but I’m hearing that she’ll be campaigned in supporting. So for now, that fifth slot goes to Emma Thompson for the breezy “Saving Mr. Banks.”
Best Supporting Actor
Go big or go home. After being snubbed for his incredible work in “Shame,” I predict the Academy will right its wrongs and reward Michael Fassbender with an Oscar for “12 Years A Slave.” I really hope I’m right.
Bradley Cooper, given the villain role in “American Hustle,” could capitalize on a year of goodwill after a nomination from “Silver Linings Playbook.” He’s probably a safer pick, but I’m not interested in safe at this point.
After last year’s category was dominated by previous winners, I’m going to predict two more first-time nominees in this category: Daniel Bruhl for “Rush,” whose performance has been touted since Cannes, and Steve Carell for “Foxcatcher,” a darker role for the comedic actor.
And then I’ll predict Tom Hanks as Walt Disney in “Saving Mr. Banks” because that proposition just sounds too good to pass up for Academy voters.
Best Supporting Actress
Honestly, this category is such a toss-up at this point, so I’m forced to pick the only person with buzz at the moment: Oprah Winfrey for “The Butler.” Beyond her, my confidence ends. If the Weinstein Company had announced what Meryl Streep will be campaigned in, I’d feel confident picking her in whatever category they chose. Right now, I’m going with supporting.
I thought Octavia Spencer was the best part of “Fruitvale Station,” but her part may be too small or too soon after her win for “The Help.”
Cameron Diaz looks like an intriguing femme fatale in “The Counselor,” but that movie could flop so hardcore that she’s rendered a non-factor this season. With no festival appearances slated, the film does not appear to be a serious threat for anything. Diaz has been pretty quiet lately, but let’s not forget she had a string of acclaimed roles from 1998 to 2002 that gave her 4 Golden Globe nominations and 3 SAG Award nominations.
And as for that last slot, I figured I might as well throw in Jennifer Lawrence for “American Hustle.” Everyone loves J.Law, and I think enough people will like “American Hustle” to give her a victory lap after last year’s win.
Best Original Screenplay
David O. Russell is a two-time writing nominee? Check for “American Hustle.”
The Coen Brothers are five-time writing nominees with two wins? Check for “Inside Llewyn Davis.”
Woody Allen has been nominated for Best Original Screenplay a whopping 15 times, and “Blue Jasmine” does not suck. Check.
Spike Jonze is an acclaimed original figure in Hollywood? Check for “Her,” but with some reluctance as “The Master” was snubbed last year for the clichéd “Flight.”
Alfonso Cuaron is a two-time writing nominee, but his latest film “Gravity” might be a lot more impressive on the screen than it is on the page. Perhaps he will wow us once again and make us regret ever doubting him … so I’ll predict “Gravity” to take the final slot here. But “Black Swan” missed here, so originality isn’t everything in the Best Original Screenplay category.
Best Adapted Screenplay
It would be foolish of me not to predict a lot of Best Picture nominees here, which traditionally dominate the Best Adapted Screenplay category. But don’t count out “Before Midnight,” whose predecessor scored a nomination back in 2004 in this category. The series, and this installment in particular, has gotten a lot of positive press. I don’t think the writers will forget about this one.
What do you think? Who is the one to beat in 2013? Sound off!
Well, this got pushed to the bottom of my to-do list all day, whoops. Now the Oscars seem like a million years ago, especially since Harvey Weinstein already got us thinking Oscars 2013 (or 2014, depending on how you date the awards) by leaking this picture of Nicole Kidman as Grace Kelly in “Grace of Monaco.” The season never ends. Just like how everyone started talking 2016 on November 7 of last year.
I thought this year’s crop of winners was good, for the most part. And by that I mean, my happiness for “Argo” and “Les Misérables” winning 6 Oscars combined was probably greater than my anger at the lackluster “Django Unchained,” “Life of Pi,” and “Lincoln” taking home a combine 7 Oscars.
Really, I just wanted Anne Hathaway to win. Just as last year, I really only wanted to see “Midnight in Paris” win Best Original Screenplay. And the year before that, it was Natalie Portman for “Black Swan.” Thankfully, these mildly difficult request have been met by the Academy.
Though I will say, I get all worked up predicting the winners every year … and then it all unfolds generally according to plan. Was there really much surprising at all about this ceremony, save maybe Christoph Waltz’s win? (It shouldn’t have been a surprise if we had taken into account that he has never lost a major award on the American film awards circuit that he has been nominated for.) I think Meryl Streep’s win last year is the biggest surprise since “Crash” winning Best Picture in 2005.
“Argo,” not unlike “The Artist” last year, is a Best Picture winner I can live with and be happy for. Someone posted an article recently saying that awards season seems to have a way of making us hate the movies we once liked. I’d say that’s pretty fair. I got sick of “Argo” winning everything by the end. It removes the suspense and the fun from the game! And such an industry consensus gives you all the more opportunities to wonder how much it really deserves its accolades.
In other news, Jennifer Lawrence is one of my new favorite human beings ever … if you want to know what it would be like for me to win an Oscar, these next few clips would give you a great idea.
And the cast reunion of “Les Misérables” was absolute heaven. I mean, really, I felt so deeply in that moment that I was once again filled with that sense of spiritual renewal and revival that only one musical can bring.
As for the ceremony itself as a whole, Seth MacFarlane was OK. At least he knew not to take it personally when jokes would flop, and building in a safeguard against his own failure to dull the excoriation was smart. But I found his humor to be always just slightly off-the-mark. And the “We Saw Your Boobs” song was just ridiculous. Sadly, it’s a reality that many esteemed actresses might feel the pressure to drop their drawers to appeal to the older men that make up the majority of the Academy … but it was reduced to a sexist punchline.
The one thing that was SPECTACULAR though was the red carpet fashion for the women. I mean, holy cow! I was bowled over by how gorgeous Amy Adams, Jessica Chastain, Anne Hathaway, and Jennifer Lawrence looked. Their beauty is rivaled only by their talent.
So I guess this is, sadly, more or less a wrap on a season of Oscar reporting. Always sad to see it go, but this year was especially fun. Don’t know what will be my “Les Misérables” of 2013, but I can’t wait to see some new movies to find it!
12:53 A.M. To put the finishing touches on the evening, “Life of Pi” was the big winner with 4 Oscars including Best Director. “Argo” took home 3 trophies to boot including Best Picture, the one that really counts. “Les Misérables” had a nice haul of 3 as well, winning Anne Hathaway her first Oscar! “Django Unchained,” “Lincoln,” and “Skyfall” each won a pair of Academy Awards too.
Thanks for tuning in, everyone! You were a wonderful audience! And you helped make this a banner night for the site as well, breaking my all-time daily traffic record.
Check back tomorrow for my Monday morning wrap-up where I attempt to break down the implications of the night, the best-dressed women, and the precise moment I went and returned from heaven during the “Les Misérables” cast reunion. Take care, readers and Oscar watchers!
11:59 P.M. Aww, Ben Affleck and Jennifer Garner. And what an incredible speech of redemption, justice, and vindication!
11:58 P.M. Giving the Academy the finger with the mention of Affleck as a director.
11:56 P.M. What a wild ride for Ben Affleck. Congratulations to all involved on this fantastic movie!
11:55 P.M. BEST PICTURE: “ARGO“
11:53 P.M. Because Bill Clinton on the Golden Globes wasn’t enough, Michelle Obama had to upstage everyone at the Oscars…
11:52 P.M. Does Jack Nicholson always present Best Picture?
11:51 P.M. Biggest shocker of the night! A nice, eloquent speech as always. History has been made … and will probably be made again when he takes his next role.
11:48 P.M. BEST ACTOR: DANIEL DAY-LEWIS, “LINCOLN“
11:43 P.M. BEST ACTRESS: JENNIFER LAWRENCE, “SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK“
11:36 P.M. If “Life of Pi” does not win Best Picture, that means Ang Lee will have won Best Director twice and never won Best Picture.
11:34 P.M. BEST DIRECTOR: ANG LEE, “LIFE OF PI“
11:29 P.M. Ugh, really? Guess my distaste for Tarantino’s latest really killed my ballot.
11:26 P.M. BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: “DJANGO UNCHAINED“
11:24 P.M. BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: “ARGO“
11:17 P.M. You da bomb, Adele! The whole world loves you!
11:16 P.M. BEST ORIGINAL SONG: SKYFALL FROM “SKYFALL“
11:10 P.M. BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: “LIFE OF PI“
11:00 P.M. We miss you, Nora Ephron!
10:57 P.M. In memoriam, it always gets me…
10:49 P.M. BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: “LINCOLN“
10:36 P.M. No one can silence a room quite like Adele. She is unbelievable.
10:33 P.M. BEST FILM EDITING: “ARGO“
10:25 P.M. YES YES YES! “It came true,” channeling her best Mia Thermopolis. And such a beautiful line about Fantines in real life!
10:22 P.M. BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: ANNE HATHAWAY, “LES MISERABLES“
10:19 P.M. TIME FOR BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS!
10:16 P.M. So cool, never thought I’d see a tie in my lifetime! This is awesome!
10:14 P.M. BEST SOUND EDITING: (tie) “ZERO DARK THIRTY” and “SKYFALL“
10:11 P.M. BEST SOUND MIXING: “LES MISERABLES“
10:10 P.M. Glad Seth MacFarlane can joke about his movie’s mediocrity.
10:07 P.M. Is this what heaven is like? Oh my god!
10:05 P.M. HYPERVENTILATION!
10:03 P.M. I CAN DIE HAPPY NOW! THIS IS SO FANTASTIC!
10:02 P.M. LES MIS LES MIS LES MIS LES MIS I AM DYING
9:59 P.M. Jennifer Hudson being amazing is good enough. Why has she disappeared?!
9:57 P.M. HOW CAN THEY DO “DREAMGIRLS” WITHOUT BEYONCE!?!
9:54 P.M. I’ll never look at “Chicago” the same way. Catherine Zeta-Jones sounds awful and looks like a totally different person than the woman that won the Oscar 10 years ago.
9:53 P.M. I’m sorry, but I just can’t take John Travolta seriously…
9:50 P.M. BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: “AMOUR“
9:45 P.M. “Jaws” theme again? Wow, so rude.
9:44 P.M. BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: “SEARCHING FOR SUGAR MAN”
9:41 P.M. “The actor who really got inside Abraham Lincoln’s head was John Wilkes Booth.” Yeah, maybe too soon…
9:40 P.M. By breaking up the Best Picture nominees into 3 trios, I hope this doesn’t mean they think they can get away with not doing one giant montage…
9:37 P.M. The modern American superhero who isn’t American … Liam Neeson.
9:36 P.M. Darn, there goes my streak of getting all the short films right.
9:35 P.M. BEST SHORT FILM (DOCUMENTARY): “INOCENTE”
9:33 P.M. Love that feeling of getting a short film prediction right!
9:32 P.M. BEST SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION): “CURFEW”
9:30 P.M. This is how I knew who Shirley Bassey was…
9:27 P.M. Pretty impressive finish for Shirley Bassey there.
9:21 P.M. So glad “Les Misérables” isn’t going home empty handed!
9:20 P.M. BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: “LES MISERABLES“
9:17 P.M. BEST COSTUME DESIGN: “ANNA KARENINA“
9:11 P.M. What a terrible way to play someone off – with “Jaws!” He was trying to say something meaningful about their company that was going bankrupt and they just totally cut him off!
9:1o P.M. BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: “LIFE OF PI“
9:07 P.M. BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: “LIFE OF PI“
9:05 P.M. Awkwardly missing Scarlett Johansson on “The Avengers” reunion … now it’s a sausage fest.
9:04 P.M. Adorable flexing Quvenzhané Wallis! “I really hope I don’t lose to that old lady, Jennifer Lawrence!”
9:02 P.M. Chills all over again for “Les Misérables.”
9:00 P.M. Well, sorry for ever doubting Pixar owned this category, except when they don’t.
9:00 P.M. BEST ANIMATED FILM: “BRAVE“
8:59 P.M. So great of the Academy to send out all the short films!
8:58 P.M. BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM: “PAPERMAN”
8:57 P.M. Never mind, misread the envelope.
8:56 P.M. Screenplay already?! Not again….
8:55 P.M. Loving all this “E.T.” music!
8:52 P.M. Well, I guess lightning does strike twice. The same performance wins another Best Supporting Actor Oscar.
8:50 P.M. BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: CHRISTOPH WALTZ, “DJANGO UNCHAINED“
8:45 P.M. Sally Field, what a great sport!
8:42 P.M. So THAT’S why Daniel Radcliffe and Joseph Gordon-Levitt showed up to their first Oscars (which is a fact that surprises me).
8:40 P.M. Channing Tatum and Charlize Theron seem like an odd couple to be doing this dance … but they have some kind of grace! This reminds me of a “Family Guy” episode with all these random tangents.
8:37 P.M. This “we saw your boobs” number is true but just rubs me wrong…
8:31 P.M. Really, Tommy Lee Jones? Way to break character! Jimmy Fallon, you are in good company…
8:29 P.M. TIME FOR THE SHOW TO START!
8:20 P.M. Reminder to COMMENT and I will answer!
8:18 P.M. By my count, “Life of Pi“ wins five, “Argo“ and “Les Misérables“ take three, and “Amour“ and “Silver Linings Playbook“ steals two trophies. How’s that for spreading it around?
8:10 P.M. Best Picture. The holy grail.
Best Picture
“Amour“
“Argo“
“Beasts of the Southern Wild“
“Django Unchained“
“Les Misérables“
“Life of Pi“
“Lincoln“
“Silver Linings Playbook“
“Zero Dark Thirty“
Will win: “Argo“
Could win: “Silver Linings Playbook“
Should win: “Les Misérables“
Should be nominated: “The Master“
Only the second movie since 1930 to win Best Picture without a Best Director nomination – that is the feat “Argo“ looks to pull off tonight. On nomination day, I wrote “All that talk of it being a surprise come-from-behind winner all just came to a screeching halt with that Best Director snub.” That has quickly been proven dead wrong as it wins top honors from the Critics Choice, Golden Globes, PGA, DGA, SAG, and BAFTA. If it only had that pesky Best Director nomination, we wouldn’t think twice.
What looked to be a tough race to predict has been blown wide open by “Argo.” But if anything will prove us wrong, it would be “Silver Linings Playbook.” Then “Lincoln.” Then “Life of Pi.”
8:05 P.M. Ladies are looking PHENOMENAL tonight. Scroll down for Chastain, and also check out Anne Hathaway, Amy Adams, and Jennifer Lawrence!
8:00 P.M. Best Director will be more interesting tonight than it has been in quite some time … will they do it before or after the leading acting races? Hopefully it’s just right before Best Picture.
Best Director
Michael Haneke, “Amour“
Ang Lee, “Life of Pi“
David O. Russell, “Silver Linings Playbook“
Steven Spielberg, “Lincoln“
Benh Zeitlin, “Beasts of the Southern Wild“
Will win: Ang Lee, “Life of Pi“
Could win: David O. Russell, “Silver Linings Playbook“
Should win: Benh Zeitlin, “Beasts of the Southern Wild“
Should be nominated: Kathryn Bigelow, “Zero Dark Thirty“
A part of me wonders if David O. Russell won’t steal this, but his nomination for Best Adapted Screenplay could lead to some vote splitting. Steven Spielberg just doesn’t feel right, not with how “Lincoln” seems to have faded at the end of the season. Ang Lee’s work on “Life of Pi” just seems director-y, so something tells me I ought to pick him.
7:50 P.M. The “breath of fresh air” category of all former winners – Best Supporting Actor. Who will win their second – or third – Oscar? Saved this category towards the end because I was still thinking about it…
Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, “Argo”
Robert DeNiro, “Silver Linings Playbook“
Philip Seymour Hoffman, “The Master”
Tommy Lee Jones, “Lincoln“
Christoph Waltz, “Django Unchained”
Will win: Robert DeNiro, “Silver Linings Playbook“
Could win: Tommy Lee Jones, “Lincoln“
Should win: Philip Seymour Hoffman, “The Master”
Should be nominated: Eddie Redmayne, “Les Misérables“
He hasn’t won anything yet. But it’s a gut feeling I’ve had since the nominations. SAG winner Tommy Lee Jones or Globe/BAFTA winner Christoph Waltz seem to be more safe or likely choices. But if Riva upsets Lawrence, they run the risk of nominating “Silver Linings Playbook” for all acting awards and then giving it zero wins. I don’t think that happens, so DeNiro wins on sympathy and insurance votes.
7:40 P.M. The Best Actress race is crazy tight this year, and I will be on the edge of my seat as the envelope is opened.
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, “Zero Dark Thirty“
Jennifer Lawrence, “Silver Linings Playbook“
Emmanuelle Riva, “Amour“
Quvenzhané Wallis, “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
Naomi Watts, “The Impossible”
Will win: Jennifer Lawrence, “Silver Linings Playbook“
Could win: Emmanuelle Riva, “Amour“
Should win: Jessica Chastain, “Zero Dark Thirty“
Should be nominated: Marion Cotillard, “Rust and Bone”
Between the Golden Globe, the SAG, and “The Hunger Games,” this is Lawrence’s year. There seems to be a late surge for Riva with her BAFTA win, but I think Jennifer Lawrence should take this one.
7:32 P.M. How incredible does she look?!
7:30 P.M. I mean, do I even need to predict the next two categories?
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, “The Master”
Sally Field, “Lincoln“
Anne Hathaway, “Les Misérables“
Helen Hunt, “The Sessions”
Jacki Weaver, “Silver Linings Playbook“
Will win: Anne Hathaway, “Les Misérables“
Could win: Sally Field, “Lincoln“
Should win: Anne Hathaway, “Les Misérables“
Should be nominated: Shirley MacLaine, “Bernie”
Duh.
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, “Silver Linings Playbook“
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Lincoln“
Hugh Jackman, “Les Misérables“
Joaquin Phoenix, “The Master”
Denzel Washington, “Flight”
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis, “Lincoln“
Could win: Hugh Jackman, “Les Misérables“
Should win: Joaquin Phoenix, “The Master”
Should be nominated: Jack Black, “Bernie”
Again, duh.
7:20 P.M. Best Adapted Screenplay is one of the night’s most unpredictable races involving five major Best Picture contenders. Who will win?
Best Adapted Screenplay
“Argo“
“Beasts of the Southern Wild“
“Life of Pi“
“Lincoln“
“Silver Linings Playbook“
Will win: “Argo“
Could win: “Silver Linings Playbook“
Should win: “Argo”
Should be nominated: “Bernie”
Again, since they can’t give Best Director to Ben Affleck, they’ll give “Argo” some consolation prizes so it doesn’t ONLY win Best Picture. Perhaps this is where “Silver Linings Playbook” breaks through, but I think the momentum is unstoppable for “Argo.”
7:00 P.M. Time to move into the heavy hitters … can’t believe some of these people will be holding a golden statue soon!
Best Original Screenplay
“Amour”
“Django Unchained”
“Flight”
“Moonrise Kingdom”
“Zero Dark Thirty”
Will win: “Amour“
Could win: “Zero Dark Thirty”
Should win: “Zero Dark Thirty”
Should be nominated: “The Master”
“Zero Dark Thirty” may be too controversial, but it did win the WGA. However, it was not competing against Quentin Tarantino’s “Django Unchained” nor Michael Haneke’s “Amour.” I’m seeing a foreign film triumph like in 2002 when “Talk to Her” unexpectedly took the trophy. Just a gut feeling I have.
6:55 P.M. Jennifer Lawrence just referenced “Father of the Bride” – MARRY ME!
6:53 P.M. The sound categories always prove to be a bit of a conundrum – do you predict a split? They haven’t done so since 2008!
Best Sound Mixing
“Argo“
“Les Misérables”
“Life of Pi“
“Lincoln“
“Skyfall”
Will win: “Les Misérables”
Could win: “Life of Pi“
Should win: “Les Misérables”
Should be nominated: “The Impossible”
Did you know they sang live on “Les Misérables?” No movie has shone more of a light on sound mixing than this one, so it should handily win. And musicals always seem to score here.
Best Sound Editing
“Argo“
“Django Unchained”
“Life of Pi“
“Skyfall”
“Zero Dark Thirty“
Will win: “Life of Pi“
Could win: “Skyfall”
Should win: “Zero Dark Thirty“
Should be nominated: “The Impossible”
A “Life of Pi” technical sweep should get back on track and take the other sound category.
6:46 P.M. Cute Quvenzhané Wallis and her adorable puppy purse!
6:45 P.M. Best Film Editing, according to Dave Karger, is an even more necessary nomination than Best Director. So having said that…
Best Film Editing
“Argo“
“Life of Pi“
“Lincoln“
“Silver Linings Playbook“
“Zero Dark Thirty“
Will win: “Argo”
Could win: “Life of Pi“
Should win: “Zero Dark Thirty“
Should be nominated: “The Master”
6:35 P.M. Happy one year anniversary, Angelina Jolie’s protruding right leg!
6:30 P.M. Best Cinematography is a category I appreciate more and more each year. So who will take it for 2012?
Best Cinematography
“Anna Karenina”
“Django Unchained”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“Skyfall”
Will win: “Life of Pi”
Could win: “Skyfall”
Should win: “Skyfall”
Should be nominated: “Les Misérables”
I think it would be great if Roger Deakins, a perennial Oscar bridesmaid, won for his superb lensing of “Skyfall.” But his name isn’t on the ballot, just the movie’s name. And there seems to be a Bond bias in the Academy. So I say the technical domination of “Life of Pi” continues here.
6:20 P.M. That one time I ran into an Oscar nominee. It’s super casual.
(That’s Emmanuelle Riva of “Amour,” in case you couldn’t tell.)
6:15 P.M. Almost forgot the other two short film categories … whoops!
Best Documentary Short
“Inocente”
“Kings Point”
“Mondays at Racine”
“Open Heart”
“Redemption”
Will win: “Mondays at Racine”
Could win: “Open Heart”
I’m thinking heartstrings-tugger “Mondays at Racine,” about two female cancer patients who become unlikely friends, will triumph over “Open Heart.” The latter seems to similar to “Saving Face,” last year’s winner in the category about reconfiguring women’s faces in Pakistan that have been disfigured by acid.
Best Live Action Short
“Asad”
“Buzkashi Boys”
“Curfew”
“Death of a Shadow”
“Henry”
Will win: “Curfew”
Could win: “Death of a Shadow”
I did my research and “Curfew” sounded right, but now I don’t remember what it was about. I do remember that Matthias Schoenaerts of “Rust and Bone” was in “Death of a Shadow,” though.
6:05 P.M. Eddie Redmayne arrives! Why isn’t he nominated for Best Supporting Actor?!
6:00 P.M. What was once “Best Makeup” is now “Best Makeup and Hairstyling.” So that adds a whole new dimension to the category (slightly kidding, slightly serious).
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
“Hitchcock”
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“Les Misérables”
Will win: “Les Misérables”
Could win: “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
Should win: “Les Misérables”
Should be nominated: “Holy Motors”
Consider how much that makeup and hairstyling contributed to Anne Hathaway’s soon-to-be-Oscar winning performance. I think that’s enough to trump the showier styles of “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey.”
5:45 P.M. Time for my predictions for the costume drama awards. The movies that win here are usually made solely to win these Oscars.
Best Costume Design
“Anna Karenina”
“Les Misérables”
“Lincoln”
“Mirror Mirror”
“Snow White and the Huntsman”
Will win: “Anna Karenina”
Could win: “Les Misérables“
Should win: “Anna Karenina”
Should be nominated: “Moonrise Kingdom”
I mean, “Anna Karenina” is way too gorgeous to be passed up here.
Best Production Design
“Anna Karenina”
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“Les Misérables”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
Will win: “Anna Karenina”
Could win: “Life of Pi“
Should win: “Anna Karenina”
Should be nominated: “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
Some say the digital scenery of “Life of Pi” will triumph over the traditionally Oscar-y sets of “Anna Karenina,” like how “Avatar” won in 2009. And maybe it will, indicating a HUGE technical sweep for the movie. But I think given that the scenery and setting of “Anna Karenina” is a major plot device, it will walk away with the award.
4:45 P.M. 84, soon to be 85 years of Oscar, all in one picture. Awesome.
4:00 P.M. I saw all the Best Picture nominees so you don’t. Here are some of my favorite quotes from my reviews of each nominated film.
“Amour”
At times, it can be fairly difficult to watch … but how hunky-dory do you want movies about death to be? How can you even begin to comprehend the ennui of watching someone slowly lose their grip on life when you are treated to watch from a coolly removed distance?
“Argo”
However, I don’t attribute the success of “Argo” merely to coincidence and fate. The movie works because it was meticulously and intentionally crafted by director Ben Affleck, who continues to make leaps and bounds with each movie he makes.
Have no doubt about it, “Beasts” is a movie that could only by an uncorrupted visionary like Zeitlin. His ambition soars to the sky, and even in the rare occasions where it falls short, we are left in awe of the sheer gutsiness of the decision.
[R]ather than use the forward momentum to lead to further exploration of his craft, Tarantino chose to take a victory lap fueled by the high of inhaling too much of the exhaust fumes of his own success. ”Django Unchained” just feels like Tarantino on autopilot, lacking the vibrancy or surprising eccentricity of his prior films.
Even when the novelty of the close-ups wears off, we are still left to ponder just how radical and revolutionary Hooper’s “Les Misérables” is. The musical genre has favored sweeping grandiosity for years in an attempt to replicate the stage experience for cinematic audiences. Hooper, on the other hand, respects the live theatre’s conventions but throws out those that do not translate well to screen.
The core ideas of “Life of Pi” get diluted, passed over in favor of a little more cinematic grandeur. Don’t get me wrong, Lee’s grand canvas for the movie is exciting and stunning. But I can get that in any movie; few dare to delve into the psyche like he meagerly attempted to do.
“Lincoln”
Once the process wraps up, it is revealed that Kushner and Spielberg are really more interested in hagiography than biography with “Lincoln.” While it delves deeper than just mere Honest Abe iconography, their film is not one that attempts to tell his story.
Russell’s editing facilitates emotional rapport, [and] the two feel like parts of ourselves that we usually try to pretend don’t exist. But on screen and embodied by Cooper and Lawrence, we embrace them and allow them to illuminate the crazy that lives within us all.
Through the journalistic proceedings of “Zero Dark Thirty,” Boal cleverly utilizes Maya as an important through-line to keep us drawn in. And Chastain in turns creates a character so scarily resolute that we can’t help but root and cheer for her.
3:45 P.M. Remember when “Zero Dark Thirty” was the frontrunner for Best Picture? Read my piece for “LAMB Devours the Oscars” to see what happened to what was once a prized darling.
3:30 P.M. Animation is a little tougher than normal this year…
Best Animated Feature
“Brave”
“Frankenweenie”
“ParaNorman”
“The Pirates: Band of Misfits”
“Wreck-It Ralph”
Will win: “Wreck-It Ralph”
Could win: “Brave”
Should win: “Wreck-It Ralph”
A few years ago, it would be unimaginable that Pixar could lose this category. They may not cede their turf tonight, to be fair. “Brave” won the Golden Globe and BAFTA, but “Wreck-It Ralph” had better reviews and took the PGA and Annie Award. I admit to picking the movie I think is clearly better and hoping the Academy feels the same way. But they could remind us that this category belongs to the studio of Woody and Buzz.
Best Short Film – Animated
“Adam and Dog”
“Fresh Guacamole”
“Head Over Heels”
“Maggie Simpson in The Longest Daycare”
“Paperman”
Will win: “Paperman”
Could win: “Adam and Dog”
Should win: “Maggie Simpson in The Longest Daycare”
Disney’s short film “Paperman” should clean up here. It seems like the most substantial nominee, but I could be totally wrong. I saw it before “Wreck-It Ralph” and was very impressed with the way it rehashed silent film charm.
3:15 P.M. “Zero Dark Thirty” jokes are fun.
3:00 P.M. Visual effects are fun. Check out some of these awesome videos demonstrating how the nominated films came together on a computer!
Best Visual Effects
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“Snow White and the Huntsman”
Will win: “Life of Pi”
Could win: “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
Should win: “Life of Pi”
Should be nominated: “The Impossible”
Best Picture nominees have dominated this category since 2008, so I give the advantage to “Life of Pi.” On the other hand, “The Lord of the Rings” did win this category three times in a row, so a sneak attack is possible.
2:45 P.M. Some more predictions for you … again, I consider these to be pretty much no-brainers.
Best Documentary Feature
“5 Broken Cameras”
“The Gatekeepers”
“How to Survive a Plague”
“The Invisible War”
“Searching for Sugar Man”
Will win: “Searching for Sugar Man”
Could win: “The Invisible War”
Should win: “The Invisible War”
Should be nominated: “The Queen of Versailles”
Have only seen two of the nominated films, so I can’t speak much from my own aesthetic tastes. But “Searching for Sugar Man” has been totally dominant on the precursors circuit, and I don’t expect its dominance to let up now.
Best Foreign Language Film
“Amour”
“Kon-Tiki”
“No”
“A Royal Affair”
“War Witch”
Will win: “Amour”
Could win: “Kon-Tiki”
Should win: “No”
Should be nominated: “Rust and Bone”
Are any movies other than “Amour” in this category nominated for Best Picture? Nope, didn’t think so. Some have speculated crowd-pleasing “Kon-Tiki” could pull a “The Lives of Others”-style upset on Michael Haneke’s downer, but I think that’s doubtful at best.
And I base my should win for “No” on the trailer, which is seriously AMAZING! Shameless plug:
2:30 P.M. Honest posters for the Best Picture nominees. So incredibly accurate.
2:25 P.M. Subtext?
2:15 P.M. Might as well start some predictions. What better place to start than with the music categories? This year’s ceremony promises to be quite a celebration of music between performances by Adele, Norah Jones, Barbra Streisand, and Shirley Bassey. There’s also the celebration of “Chicago,” “Dreamgirls,” and “Les Misérables.” And the show will close with a number by host Seth MacFarlane and Kristin Chenoweth. Oy.
Best Score
“Anna Karenina,” Dario Marianelli
“Argo,” Alexandre Desplat
“Life of Pi,” Mychael Danna
“Lincoln,” John Williams
“Skyfall,” Thomas Newman
Will win: “Life of Pi”
Could win: “Argo”
Should win: “Anna Karenina”
Should be nominated: “The Master,” Jonny Greenwood
Really don’t have any sense of certainty, but “Life of Pi” certainly seems to be headed towards a large below-the-line haul. And it won the Golden Globe. Perhaps if the momentum for “Argo” extends beyond Best Picture, it will lift up Best Score. It would be a much-deserved win for workhorse Alexandre Desplat. Then again, we also should not count out John Williams EVER. But I don’t think that will happen with the lack of “Lincoln” love in the late phase of the season.
Best Song
Before My Time from “Chasing Ice,” music and lyrics by J. Ralph
Suddenly from “Les Misérables,” music by Claude-Michel Schönberg, lyrics by Herbert Kretzmer and Alain Boublil
Pi’s Lullaby from “Life of Pi,” music by Mychael Danna, lyrics by Bombay Jayashri
Skyfall from “Skyfall,” music and lyrics by Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth
Everybody Needs a Best Friend from “Ted,” music by Walter Murphy, lyrics by Seth MacFarlane
Will win: Skyfall from “Skyfall”
Could win: Suddenly from “Les Misérables”
Should win: Skyfall from “Skyfall”
Should be nominated: Who Were We from “Holy Motors”
Easiest race of the night to call. It’s “Skyfall” all the way.
2:00 P.M. Kids Oscars. Let’s go!
1:50 P.M. Feel free to comment below and I will respond in the post itself!
1:45 P.M. For reference’s sake, many people will refer to tonight’s proceedings as “The 2013 Academy Awards.” In fact, probably most people will. But I, for whatever reason, choose to refer to the ceremony by the calendar year in which the nominated films were released.
1:40 P.M. Already a quick note to the E! hostesses … stick to fashion, please. Leave punditry to Dave Karger. “Argo” will not win “Best Oscar,” it will win “Best Picture.”
1:30 P.M. Who the heck is already watching Oscars red carpet coverage?! ME, of course! I can’t get enough of this stuff, who cares if no one famous shows up for 5 hours? I’m now on my fourth live Oscars blog, and it has quickly become one of my favorite parts of the night. I love sharing my thoughts with everyone – and also being able to go back and see my thoughts from past ceremonies.
(If curious, check out the live blogs from 2011, 2010, and 2009.)
So who will win Best Picture, Best Director, and other coveted trophies? In a few hours, we will know. But in the meantime, we have this list of nine…
10:00 P.M. For those of you keeping track at home, “Les Misérables” ruled the Golden Globes tonight with 3 wins! “Django Unchained” and “Argo” also won two trophies. “Amour,” “Brave,” “Life of Pi,” “Lincoln,” “Silver Linings Playbook,” “Skyfall,” and “Zero Dark Thirty” each won a single award.
10:00 P.M. HFPA awkwardly and unintentionally flips the bird to AMPAS tonight…
9:58 P.M. BEST PICTURE – DRAMA: “ARGO“
9:52 P.M. Unexpectedly humorous speech from Day-Lewis. Although I laughed much harder at how most of the back of the room gave him a standing ovation … and NO ONE up front did. Awkward…
9:50 P.M. BEST ACTOR – DRAMA: DANIEL DAY-LEWIS, “LINCOLN“
9:50 P.M. What a beautiful speech, Chastain looked truly humbled and honored. To the Oscars we go, hopefully! (Hey HFPA, didn’t appreciate your shot of the audience where we could see you all flashing “WRAP UP.”)
9:48 P.M. BEST ACTRESS – DRAMA: JESSICA CHASTAIN, “ZERO DARK THIRTY“
9:41 P.M. Adorable Anne Hathaway stealing the microphone quickly to do a few more thanks and then tightly hugging Amanda Seyfried.
9:40 P.M. BEST PICTURE – MUSICAL/COMEDY: “LES MISERABLES“
9:39 P.M. Jeremy Renner bleeped…
9:34 P.M. What a charming acceptance speech, and so much love for his wife! Maybe he can beat Daniel Day-Lewis?!
9:32 P.M. BEST ACTOR – MUSICAL/COMEDY: HUGH JACKMAN, “LES MISERABLES“
9:22 P.M. They talked about actors, and then the category was Best TV Series – Musical/Comedy? At least it was “Girls!”
9:18 P.M. Take that, Academy! Standing ovation for snubbed Ben Affleck!
9:18 P.M. BEST DIRECTOR: BEN AFFLECK, “ARGO“
9:11 P.M. What on earth did Jodie Foster just say? Seriously, my TV audio went out in what I assume was a bleep.
9:04 P.M. OK, people, time for you to go watch “The Beaver.” It has Mel Gibson, sure, but it also has Jennifer Lawrence!
8:59 P.M. “Taylor Swift, stay away from Michael J. Fox’s son!” – Tina Fey, who needs to be on this telecast far more
8:53 P.M. Lena Dunham may have won the Golden Globe, but Tina Fey got to wait with J.Lo and Amy Poehler got awfully close to George Clooney. It’s debatable who the overall winner really was tonight.
8:51 P.M. Hooray for Lena – NOT Lisa, Aziz – Dunham! Go watch “Tiny Furniture!”
8:50 P.M. Aziz Ansari being carried by Jason Bateman … fantastic.
8:47 P.M. BEST ANIMATED FILM: “BRAVE“
8:46 P.M. What on earth did that introduction have to do with Best Animated Film?
8:45 P.M. Goodness gracious, Sacha Baron Cohen is drunk…
8:39 P.M. 4 Golden Globes for Claire Danes in her career. She’s halfway to Meryl Streep!
8:35 P.M. BEST FOREIGN FILM: “AMOUR“
8:27 P.M. “Best Picture nominee ‘Salmon Fishing in the Yemen‘” just sounds so wrong.
8:25 P.M. Really, Golden Globes? Tarantino for screenplay? Not OK with that. “Inglourious Basterds” blows “Django Unchained” out of the water. And the speech was a total MESS. Someone was overserved…
8:23 P.M. BEST SCREENPLAY: QUENTIN TARANTINO, “DJANGO UNCHAINED“
8:18 P.M. Give us more time with Anne Hathaway’s acceptance speech – we love her!
8:15 P.M. BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: ANNE HATHAWAY, “LES MISERABLES“
8:07 P.M. Yes, JLaw, to answer the question you were so desperately trying to ask during that speech, OF COURSE we can be best friends!
8:07 P.M. “Does this say ‘I beat Meryl?'” – Jennifer Lawrence
8:06 P.M. BEST ACTRESS – MUSICAL/COMEDY: JENNIFER LAWRENCE, “SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK“
8:04 P.M. The sad thing is, Will Ferrell and Kristen Wiig are saying what a lot of Americans are to their television sets right now. Wondering what this “Silver Linings Playbook” thing is and cursing them for not nominating “The Avengers.”
8:02 P.M. Nice abs, Kristen Wiig.
7:59 P.M. Clinton introducing “Lincoln.” Oscar for Best Picture is now in the bag, in case it wasn’t already.
7:58 P.M. Really, Bill Clinton?! What?!
7:55 P.M. Tina Fey and Amy Poehler going and impersonating the absent celebrities is PRICELESS.
7:49 P.M. Looks like we need more Grammy-winners to come freshen up film awards.
7:48 P.M. BEST ORIGINAL SONG: SKYFALL, “SKYFALL“
7:45 P.M. BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: MYCHAEL DANNA, “LIFE OF PI“
7:42 P.M. Woah, real Tony Mendez!
7:36 P.M. Awkward teleprompter flub with Salma Hayek and Paul Rudd … hooray for “Homeland!” Don’t understand why they present Best TV Series – Drama before Best Actress in a TV Drama?!
7:33 P.M. Wow, now “Homeland” is set to dominate the Golden Globes too after Emmys domination. Weird not to hear Damian Lewis speak in his gruff American accent!
7:32 P.M. Didn’t get to see much from the red carpet, but from what I can tell … Jessica Chastain wins. Just as she did at the Oscars last year. Ehh, didn’t really get to look closely enough. She’s gorgeous, sure, but the dress wasn’t that great.
7:30 P.M. “Call Me Maybe” needs to be left in 2012, HFPA lady.
7:23 P.M. Don’t sing again, Catherine Zeta-Jones, unless it’s “Chicago.” Thanks. That line of “Do You Hear The People Sing?” was awful.
7:21 P.M. If “Game Change” had been released in theaters, Julianne Moore would be in contention for Best Actress. Think about it…
7:18 P.M. Hooray for “Game Change!” One of the better movies I saw this year in any format!
7:12 P.M. C’mon, Professor McGonagall. It’s one thing not to do press for yourself – but not showing up to receive the inevitable award?!
7:10 P.M. Please, Academy, you’ve already awarded Christoph Waltz for literally the same performance. And oh, here goes Waltz again with the poetic metaphors in his speeches.
7:10 P.M. BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: CHRISTOPH WALTZ, “DJANGO UNCHAINED“
7:08 P.M. “This 70th anniversary celebration.” OK. Glad Tina and Amy mentioned that!
7:03 P.M. “When it comes to torture, I trust the lady who spent 3 years married to James Cameron.” – Amy Poehler, much to the amusement of Jessica Chastain (who was DYING laughing)
7:02 P.M. Already loving the Tina and amy combo. Same humor, just with less bite!
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Original Screenplay
Big winners
“Amour” and “Beasts of the Southern Wild.” For all those who said 2012 was the year where studio entertainment came roaring back, think again. The Academy has a different narrative for you. These two indie darlings, sprung from the festival circuit, scored crucial nominations for their screenplays while also ratcheting a key one-two punch of Best Picture and Best Director. How much love for “Beasts of the Southern Wild” love was
Christoph Waltz. Apparently the Academy thought Hans Landa, Part 2 was better than Leonardo DiCaprio’s dastardly villain, so much so that it overcame vote-splitting. Bravo.
Emma Stone. No, she’s not a nominee, but she reminded everyone during the nominations announcement that she should be. And needs to be. Preferably sooner rather than later.
“Life of Pi.” It got 11 nominations, second to only “Lincoln” (and by only one nominee). Though it was a few nominations short of the technical sweep “Hugo” scored last year, I bet “Life of Pi” is headed for a healthy win total.
“Lincoln.” I knew it would probably take the lead for nominations, and it sure did. With 12 nominations, it’s now going to win Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay … meaning I may be turning off the ceremony early.
Seth MacFarlane. Announcing the nominations, MacFarlane wound up a nominee himself for “Ted.” That worked out nicely. Now he’ll be hosting while a nominee … hopefully he turns out better than nominee/host James Franco in 2010.
“Silver Linings Playbook.” Boy, this was strong. It scored in all the major categories – Best Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress (in a shock!), and Adapted Screenplay – and then also took a crucial Best Film Editing nomination. I think it may now be the only movie that can take down “Lincoln.”
Big surprises
Best Director. DGA nominees, among many other accolades, Ben Affleck, Kathryn Bigelow, and Tom Hooper miss out on Oscar nominations? Who would have thought Ang Lee and David O. Russell would be the ones who made the category … and Affleck and Bigelow (or Hooper, who was less safe) get pushed out for shocking nominee Benh Zeitlin and surprising (but slightly predictable) Michael Haneke? The director’s branch may have redefined the race as we know it. And they’ve also called it for Spielberg, as far as I can see.
Phoenix in, PTA out. The actors told us they were not all that into Joaquin Phoenix in “The Master” with a SAG snub, but he shows up to knock out (much to my pleasure) John Hawkes in “The Sessions.” Meanwhile, WGA nominee and thrice-nominated by the writers’ branch Paul Thomas Anderson gets snubbed in favor of … the melodramatic “Flight?!”
Big losers
“Argo.“ All that talk of it being a surprise come-from-behind winner all just came to a screeching halt with that Best Director snub. Still, seven nominations are nothing to shake a finger at.
“Les Misérables.” Double-digit nominations should have been a no-brainer, I’m sorry. With no nominations for Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, or Best Cinematography, it’s likely now only going to win for Anne Hathaway’s performance.
“Zero Dark Thirty.” Only 5 nominations? Now I wonder if it will win anything at all. Jessica Chastain lost to Jennifer Lawrence this morning, if I had to guess. “Silver Linings Playbook” will have to win at least one acting prize, and that’s the most likely category. I think Boal probably won’t be able to beat Tarantino or Haneke. And yesterday, I thought it was a big contender to take Best Picture.
Marion Cotillard and John Hawkes. Once again, proving that the hat trick of nominations from BFCA, HFPA, and SAG do not make you safe if your movie doesn’t have much buzz or heat.
ONE DAY MORE to revolution (I mean, Oscar nominations). Now it’s time to lock in my Best Picture predictions. It was an extremely tough year to forecast. So without further ado, here are the films I think will be called out by Seth MacFarlane and Emma Stone early tomorrow morning.
See my predictions for Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay.
See my predictions for Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress.
See my predictions for Best Actor and Best Actress.
See my predictions for Best Director.
Best Picture
The top five of “Lincoln,” “Les Misérables,” “Argo,” “Zero Dark Thirty,” and “Silver Linings Playbook” are locked in. There has been pretty consistent and unilateral support for these all season long (although some critics have savaged a certain musical I love).
I’d say given the critical beat-down of “Les Misérables” and the Senatorial inquisition into “Zero Dark Thirty,” Steven Spielberg’s “Lincoln” has risen back to the top of the pack. “Argo” has also benefitted from being the least controversial, most agreeable movie in the bunch. Find me someone that hated “Argo,” and I’ll find you a flying pig.
But who knows how the passion will play out? Two years ago, I would have laughed in your face if you told me “The Social Network” was going to lose. There is still time for a “Les Misérables” and “Silver Linings Playbook” surge. If one takes a lot of Golden Globes and then the SAG Ensemble prize, it could pose a serious threat.
Then again, there’s also time for “Lincoln” or “Argo” to build a consensus with wins from either the BFCA, HFPA, or SAG. Wins from PGA and DGA in 2012 may be the biggest shaper of the odds; “Zero Dark Thirty” needs at least one of these guild trophies to prove it’s more than just a critical darling. Hopefully it all gets split up for a fun year!
But beyond the guaranteed five, we are looking at a highly unpredictable field that could include any number of nominees. I mean, literally, there could be no more nominees – or there could be five more thanks to the Academy’s new sliding scale. Some are more likely to score nods than others, but there are a few longshots looking to make a few people gasp on nomination morning. The system also rewards passion because a film needs 5% of the first-place votes to be nominated. Hence, it pays off to be loved, not liked.
Despite what I keep sensing as a lack of passion for “Life of Pi,” I think it will ultimately wind up with a Best Picture nomination. I thought the flame had been extinguished for “War Horse” and “Moneyball” last year, but apparently 5% of the Academy voters thought they were the best movies of 2011. So if they can do it, so can Ang Lee’s “Life of Pi.” All three movies were feted by BFCA and HFPA, so I’d say it’s a good bet – especially with Lee’s DGA nod. (It’s also effects and craft heavy, so those smaller but no less important portions of the Academy may buoy it to a nomination.)
Ditto “Django Unchained,” which I had initially written off for a Best Picture nomination. Nothing felt right at first. When it only received Critics Choice nods for Best Picture and Best Screenplay, something felt fishy. Then when it was totally snubbed at the SAG Awards, I thought it was dead. (Most shrug this off as due to the fact that it wasn’t widely screened for their nominating committee.)
Yet even when the Golden Globes rescued it with 5 nominations including Best Picture and Best Director, I still didn’t buy into “Django Unchained” striking it big with the Academy. Every year, the Globes give an absurd amount of nominations to a movie that shows up in only a minor way at the Oscars. In 2011, it was “The Ides of March.” (In the past, examples have been “Revolutionary Road” and “American Gangster.”)
But now, with “Django Unchained” being quite the box office hit and the discussion topic of choice at the hypothetical critical water-cooler, I think it’s probably going to be a nominee. Surely more than 5% of the Academy voted for “Inglourious Basterds” for Best Picture in 2009. I expect that same contingent to come out and vote #1 for “Django Unchained” since most (but not I) consider it to be superior.
So … where do we go beyond these seven nominees?
Do they go for more bang and blockbuster with “Skyfall?” Crowd-pleasing comedy with “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel?” Indie comedy with “Moonrise Kingdom?” Indie drama with “Beasts of the Southern Wild?” Foreign drama with “Amour?” Polarizing drama with “The Master?” I’d say these six films are the most likely to grab any of the three remaining spots in the Best Picture category.
“Skyfall” provides perhaps the most interesting case. Had you told me a few months ago I’d be writing about it as a Best Picture contender, I wouldn’t have believed it. Yet here we are, and the film has grossed over $1 billion globally, racking up series-best praise in the process. The Academy recently announced, too, that they were planning a James Bond tribute at the ceremony. Might that be indicative of Oscar love to come?
At first, I warmed up to it being nominated for some technical nods. Then, I started to wonder if Dench and Bardem weren’t real threats for Oscar nominations thanks to notes from BFCA and SAG.
Now with “Skyfall” making the PGA top 10 list, I’m left to wonder whether it wouldn’t be a smart prediction to land a Best Picture nomination. The PGA did get the ball rolling for “District 9” in 2009, but they gave us false hope on “Star Trek.” Whichever mold “Skyfall” is cut from is anyone’s guess. If it makes the cut for Best Picture, it could easily have a whopping ten nominations! Although if it doesn’t get the big one, it could become one of the most nominated movies ever to not be nominated for Best Picture.
The PGA also showed some love for “Moonrise Kingdom” and “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” two summer successes that many thought might have some hidden pockets of support. But will they choose both, one, or neither?
“Moonrise Kingdom” has been the more visible of the two throughout the season, kicking off the precursor season with a Best Picture win at the Gotham Awards. It then dominated the Indie Spirits nominations, where it could triumph over “Silver Linings Playbook” the night before the Oscars. Topped off with a Golden Globe nod for Best Picture (musical/comedy), the case looks good. But I wonder if there are enough people who think it is the best movie of 2012, not one of the best.
Sundance Grand Jury Prize winner “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” on the other hand, seems to drive more passionate support. But will it be enough for a Best Picture nomination? The critics groups did not speak up loudly enough for it (only 2 wins and they were for long-shot Best Supporting Actor candidate Dwight Henry). It was blanked at the Golden Globes where young Quvenzhané Wallis should have at least gotten a novelty nomination.
Part of the trouble with predicting “Beasts of the Southern Wild” is its ineligibility with the SAG. We have no idea whether the actors love this movie, and they are one of the most crucial voting blocs. It’s hard to tell where the support for the movie exists, if it even does. I’m hoping that the PGA nod is telling of invisible passion for the movie. “Moonrise Kingdom” is assured a Best Original Screenplay nomination, and I think that may be its limit.
Some have floated “Amour” as a possible nominee based on how well its done with the critics groups. Indeed, I like the idea of a foreign film making the cut because that’s the kind of movie the expanded field is supposed to allow. But I don’t think this will be that first movie (of the new Best Picture era, that is) – it’s too austere and cold.
Perhaps it pops up in various other major categories like “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy” did last year, but that too faltered because people admire it more than they love it. And if Haneke can’t win Best Foreign Language Film for the critically praised “The White Ribbon,” I don’t think he’s going to cut it in competition with some real heavyweights.
I’m surprised people think there’s more of a chance for “Amour” to be a Best Picture nominee than “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel.” What part of the equation doesn’t SCREAM Oscars? The old cast of prior Oscar nominees and winners plays right into Academy demographics. It played extremely well with audiences over the summer and managed to stick around in people’s minds. It got two Golden Globe nominations including Best Picture (musical/comedy) as well as two SAG nods including the coveted Best Ensemble. If any movie is poised to pull a shocker like “The Blind Side,” this could be it.
But I’m putting my chips on there being nine films in contention, and that final nominee is “The Master.” I know it is by no means a smart pick. Other than the Critics Choice nod for Best Picture, it’s been pretty silent for the season. It has little guild support. The critics remain fairly divided. But I think that this film could galvanize the Academy, and the people that like it will love it and vote #1. The voters who appreciate it probably know it’s in peril.
So mark it down, I’m going out on a limb for Paul Thomas Anderson’s “The Master,” hoping I’ve just predicted this season’s “The Tree of Life.” If not, it just goes in the pile of other failed Best Picture predictions including “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo,” “The Town,” “Crazy Heart,” and “Invictus.” But no guts, no glory, right?
TWO MORE DAYS! I’m slowly starting to lose my mind … or at least become so consumed with thinking about the Oscar nominations that I can think of little else.
See my predictions for Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay.
See my predictions for Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress.
See my predictions for Best Actor and Best Actress.
Best Director
In case you caught on, yes, I did intentionally structure my prediction breakdown so that I would get to publish post-Directors Guild nominations. If you didn’t catch those this morning, they were Ben Affleck for “Argo,” Kathryn Bigelow for “Zero Dark Thirty,” Tom Hooper for “Les Misérables,” Ang Lee for “Life of Pi,” and Steven Spielberg for “Lincoln.”
It’s worth noting, though, that the DGA has perfectly matched the Academy’s nominees only twice since 2000.
Having said that, Spielberg, Affleck, and Bigelow are in. I don’t think anyone will debate that. Even as “Zero Dark Thirty” seems to have knocked aback with the fatuous claims of torture endorsement, Bigelow remains firmly in place. Heck, I think any of these three could win. Who knows, maybe we could even have … a split year!
Spielberg won Best Director in 1998 for “Saving Private Ryan” even though “Shakespeare in Love” won Best Picture. Could a similar surprise be in store this year?
Bigelow’s direction has earned her tremendous accolades again. She’s been the critical choice pick of the year, often times winning even when “Zero Dark Thirty” doesn’t take Best Picture. Will she take the prize again for her follow-up to “The Hurt Locker” just three years after winning her first Oscar?
And if “Argo” surges and looks poised to win Best Picture, Ben Affleck will likely win Best Director. I don’t think he would benefit from a split.
Beyond the three of them, it gets dicier. If you assume there are seven “safe” Best Picture nominees, you have four men competing for two spots: Ang Lee for “Life of Pi,” David O. Russell for “Silver Linings Playbook,” Tom Hooper for “Les Misérables,” and Quentin Tarantino for “Django Unchained.” That’s an impressive group that contains two winners and two nominees.
Some people seem to think “Les Misérables” is weak because the critics have defined people’s perceptions of the movie’s standing in the race. This is “The King’s Speech” on steroids. That movie beat the critical favorite, “The Social Network,” with no trouble at all. And it didn’t need the critics groups at all; it only took one Best Picture prize. Colin Firth was keeping the movie in discussion and taking most of the accolades, just as Anne Hathaway is doing now.
Hooper beat out David Fincher, who almost undeniably did more impressive work in “The Social Network,” in a year that perhaps more than ever screamed for a Picture-Director split. If he can win for “The King’s Speech,” I don’t see how he doesn’t get nominated for “Les Misérables.”
While many would say Ang Lee was just below the “big three,” I would say Hooper is far more secure. I think the movie will play well with Academy voters, and I still think it could win Best Picture. It will likely win three, if not four Golden Globes. It could also win the ensemble award at SAG. And if “Les Misérables” made them feel anywhere near as much as “The King’s Speech,” they know who pulled the strings of their tear ducts. A nomination feels pretty secure to me.
“Life of Pi” support is fading. Though I still think it will power through and get a Best Picture nomination, Fox seems to have dropped the ball on keeping the momentum going. Lee did get nominations from HFPA and BFCA, albeit in a field of six for the latter. And the DGA nod certainly helps.
But for all this talk of Lee getting a nomination for “Life of Pi” simply because it is incredibly ambitious or challenging do little to persuade me. I know this is a totally different case, but that didn’t help Christopher Nolan for “Inception” in a tight year (the directing branch of the Academy loathes Nolan but likes Lee for some bizarre reason). While he’s now in my good graces because of “Les Misérables,” artistic merit often takes a backseat to feel-good stories as shown by Hooper’s triumph in 2010 over Fincher and Aronofsky.
I can’t help but wonder if Lee will get the cold shoulder like David Fincher did last year for “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.” That film was getting love from the guilds left and right but was largely shunned by the Academy, including high-profile snubs in Best Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay. Is “Life of Pi” that technical marvel that guilds will admire but Academy members won’t quite appreciate as much?
However, the Academy directing branch, comprised of only about 300-400 members, is notoriously snooty, arty, high-minded, or whatever adjective you want to use. So maybe that will benefit Ang Lee. But often times, it’s a boon to someone they respect but has received little recognition leading up to the nominations With their out of the blue selections, they often provide some of the biggest surprises on nomination morning.
The ultimate case was in 2001 when they nominated David Lynch for “Mulholland Drive,” a movie that received no other nominations. But more recent and reasonable examples are Terrence Malick for “The Tree of Life,” Paul Greengrass for “United 93,” and Mike Leigh for “Vera Drake.” I think the most likely person to snab this kind of nomination would be Paul Thomas Anderson for “The Master.” As much as I’d love to see that happen, I doubt it will.
They also like to nominate directors with vision working in foreign languages. In the past decade, we’ve seen Best Director nominees Julian Schnabel for “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly,” Fernando Meirelles for “City of God,” and Pedro Almodóvar for “Talk to Her.” For that reason, we can’t count out Michael Haneke popping up for “Amour.” It’s certainly had the critical plaudits to be a non-shocking surprise.
Maybe they really respect and admire the vision of Tarantino in “Django Unchained.” They’ve been fans twice before, providing him nominations for 1994’s “Pulp Fiction” and 2009’s “Inglourious Basterds.” Both of those, however, were preceded by DGA nominations. The Weinstein Company has been floating the excuse that his passing over is due to DVD screeners not going out to DGA members.
But I think it’s telling that the Academy will stay away. His only major nomination so far has been from the Golden Globes, and it’s clear they were high on “Django Unchained.” I think it has proven to be much more of an audience success than a critical or guild one, though it has supporters amongst those groups. The “Inglourious Basterds” nod was looking good from the beginning; this time around has not been so fortuitous for Tarantino.
I don’t feel that PTA or Haneke are nearly as revered as Malick and thus have the power to displace a sure-fire Best Picture nominee. With all my reservations about Tarantino and Lee, I’m left to predict David O. Russell for “Silver Linings Playbook.” Though overlooked by the DGA and the HFPA, he was a Critics Choice nominee and (perhaps more importantly) a nominee for Best Director for “The Fighter” in 2010.
Academy voters are creatures of habit. If something works for them once, it often works again. Why do you think so-called “Oscar bait” was born? Once the studios figured out their tastes, they play right into their wheelhouse time after time. “Silver Linings Playbook” is very similar to “The Fighter” in terms of tone and emotional payoff. The only real difference this year is that he has directed a comedy as opposed to a drama. (Although there is little funnier than Charlene beating up Micky’s white-trash sisters.)
So it looks like I’ll be predicting a more conservative, sure-fire Best Picture nominees slate here. I know it’s at odds with the whole notion that the season is one of the most unpredictable ever. But I’ve watched for the signs (to quote “Silver Linings Playbook”) and don’t get the sense that anything radically wacky is going to happen in Best Director.
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