Marshall and the Movies

4:50 P.M. Live blogging the Oscars is on again!  I just got back from a rehearsal which was originally scheduled to extend an hour into the actual show … but I got out at 4:15, so I even made it home for the Red Carpet!  Needless to say, I’m ecstatic!  I came home to find our kitchen table decorated with plastic film reels in celebration of what my mom calls “my Super Bowl” – the biggest night of the year in Hollywood.  We are having homemade sausage pizza, chocolate-covered strawberries, and chocolate chip cookies.  My will/could/should picks and predictions are coming up (just a little bit late, I know.)

5:02 P.M. Alright, here are my picks for the tech categories:

• Best Art Direction
  • Will win: “The King’s Speech“
  • Could win: “True Grit“
  • Should win: “Inception“
  • Should be nominated: “Black Swan“
• Best Costume Design
  • Will win: “The King’s Speech“
  • Could win: “True Grit“
  • Should win: “True Grit“
  • Should be nominated: “Black Swan“
• Best Cinematography
  • Will win: “Inception“
  • Could win: “True Grit“
  • Should win: “Black Swan“
  • Should be nominated: “127 Hours“
• Best Film Editing
  • Will win: “The Social Network“
  • Could win: “The King’s Speech“
  • Should win: “127 Hours“
  • Should be nominated: “Inception“
• Best Makeup
  • Will win: “The Wolfman“
  • Could win: “Barney’s Version”
  • Should win: “Barney’s Version”
  • Should be nominated: “Black Swan“
• Best Original Score
  • Will win: “The King’s Speech“
  • Could win: “The Social Network“
  • Should win: “The Social Network“
  • Should be nominated: “Black Swan” (despite being ineligible)
• Best Original Song
  • Will win: “We Belong Together” from “Toy Story 3“
  • Could win: “If I Rise” from “127 Hours“
  • Should win: “I See The Light” from “Tangled“
  • Should be nominated: “African Child” from “Get Him to the Greek“
• Best Visual Effects
  • Will win: “Inception“
  • Could win: “Alice in Wonderland”
  • Should win: “Inception“
  • Should be nominated: “TRON Legacy“
• Best Sound Mixing
  • Will win: “Inception“
  • Could win: “The Social Network“
  • Should win: “Inception“
  • Should be nominated: “Black Swan“
• Best Sound Editing
  • Will win: “Inception“
  • Could win: “True Grit“
  • Should win: “Inception“
  • Should be nominated: “127 Hours“

5:20 P.M. Red carpet update: Jennifer Lawrence and Mila Kunis look SMOKING hot.  Hailee Steinfeld’s tutu is a little unfortunate.  Onto some of the other non-major categories, most of which don’t even get more than a winner pick.

• Best Animated Film – honestly, why bother to nominate a movie other than “Toy Story 3?”
• Best Foreign Film – conventional wisdom says not to pick the Golden Globe winner or the one you might have heard of, so I’m going with Canada’s “Incendies.”
• Best Documentary – they could be hipster and go with “Exit Through the Gift Shop,” but my money is on “Inside Job” for a much deserved win.
• Best Short Film (Animated) – No idea how to predict the shorts.  My guess is on “Day and Night” because everyone saw it.
• Best Short Film (Live Action) – “God of Love” sounds like a winner.
• Best Short Film (Documentary) – “Poster Girl” sounds good.

5:27 P.M. Amy Adams and Michelle Williams, usually good looking, fell flat.  Bummer.  Here are some more major picks.

• Best Original Screenplay
  • Will win: “The King’s Speech“
  • Could win: “Inception“
  • Should win: “Inception“
  • Should be nominated: “Black Swan“

I think given the overwhelming momentum for “The King’s Speech” and the story of its screenwriter, David Seidler, this is a pretty easy victory to call.  “Inception” after winning the WGA probably comes in a close second.

• Best Adapted Screenplay
  • Will win: “The Social Network“
  • Could win: “True Grit“
  • Should win: “The Social Network“
  • Should be nominated: “Rabbit Hole“

As close to a no-brainer as 2010 can give us.  Aaron Sorkin will almost certainly walk away with an Oscar for the best script in recent memory and provide at least one statue for “The Social Network.”

• Best Supporting Actor
  • Will win: Christian Bale, “The Fighter“
  • Could win: Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech“
  • Should win: Christian Bale, “The Fighter“
  • Should be nominated: Andrew Garfield, “The Social Network“

Given the overwhelming Bale love throughout the season, he should be able to overcome Rush in a sweep scenario.  It also helps that Bale has no Oscar and Rush does.  I’ll still be biting my nails for this, but I feel confident with this pick.

• Best Supporting Actress
  • Will win: Hailee Steinfeld, “True Grit“
  • Could win: Melissa Leo, “The Fighter“
  • Should win: Amy Adams, “The Fighter“
  • Should be nominated: Barbara Hershey, “Black Swan“

The category, as it often does, provides as much suspense as the show can give us.  Honestly, anyone but Jacki Weaver could win.  Carter could ride the coattails of “The King’s Speech” to victory, and Adams could win for being the best.  Smart money is probably on Leo, who has won most of the big precursors leading up to Oscar night.  But with 10 nominations for “True Grit,” the Academy clearly has to give something to the movie.  This is an easy way for them to do that, and the Academy did this with Tilda Swinton in 2007 for “Michael Clayton.”

5:42 P.M. Here comes leading acting categories…

• Best Actor
  • Will win: Colin Firth,”The King’s Speech“
  • Could win: Jesse Eisenberg, “The Social Network“
  • Should win: James Franco, “127 Hours“
  • Should be nominated: Aaron Eckhart, “Rabbit Hole“

Firth seems like a lock.  Eisenberg could take it in an Adrien Brody/”The Pianist” scenario, but that’s a long shot at best.

• Best Actress
  • Will win: Natalie Portman, “Black Swan“
  • Could win: Annette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right“
  • Should win: Natalie Portman, “Black Swan“
  • Should be nominated: Julianne Moore, “The Kids Are All Right“

If Natalie Portman doesn’t win, the Academy is going to have to work BIG TIME in the next few years to regain my respect.  This is the performance of a lifetime, and if they don’t reward it, I’m going to be furious.  Annette Bening could win on the conservative theme of the year, but I’m still confident in Natalie Portman.  I think they realize that Bening wasn’t THAT good…

6:45 P.M. Just dined and then changed into my “The Social Network” T-shirt.  For reference, I was wearing my “I Kept My Eyes Open for 127 Hours” T-shirt beforehand.  Here’s my pick for Best Director:

• Best Director
  • Will win: David Fincher, “The Social Network“
  • Could win: Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech“
  • Should win: Darren Aronofsky, “Black Swan“
  • Should be nominated: Christopher Nolan, “Inception“

Another shaky category.  Sure, Tom Hooper won the DGA, but that membership is made up of mainly TV directors.  Of course they want to reward Hooper, one of their own.  The Oscars embraced Roman Polanski, a prickly director indeed, in 2002 over DGA winner Rob Marshall, whose “Chicago” went on to win Best Picture.  It doesn’t seem wise to predict a split as most Academy voters don’t think that the Best Picture directs itself.  But I have a feeling that the voters took a step back and asked what the best directed movie of the year was, and they probably knew the name of the director that undertook the job.

Then again, Hooper and Fincher could split votes, making the way for Aronofsky to win, much like in 2000 when Soderbergh eked out a victory over Ang Lee and Ridley Scott for “Traffic.”  But I’m counting on Fincher riding to victory, making “The Social Network” the third movie to win Best Editing, Best Screenplay, and Best Director without Best Picture.

6:50 P.M. Sandra Bullock has had some MAJOR work done to her face.  No other big red carpet arrivals to blow me away with the exception of Penelope Cruz.  Jennifer Lawrence is still tops.

Without further ado, here are my thoughts on Best Picture:

• Best Picture
  • Will win: “The King’s Speech“
  • Could win: “The Social Network“
  • Should win: “Black Swan“
  • Should be nominated: “Inside Job“

This is what it all comes down to.  The past vs. the present, the critics vs. the guilds, the heart vs. the head.  You’ve heard it analyzed and overanalyzed if you pay any attention the race.  But know this: 2010 marks a watershed decision for the Oscars.  These two movies have come to represent two entirely different camps of moviemaking and moviegoers, and the critics unanimously chose “The Social Network” as their Best Picture of the year.  But then the guilds fired back with their pick for Best Picture being almost unanimously “The King’s Speech.”  It’s never smart to bet against the guilds, so I have to pick “The King’s Speech” since it has their support and clearly has the momentum.  It is the most nominated movie tonight, which is also a help.  I have a hard time calling a split, but I will.  I simply can’t predict “The Social Network” to win even though I so desperately want it to prevail.

That being said, how happy would it make you if “Toy Story 3” came out of nowhere and won?  Talk about something that would simultaneously silence and please everyone.

7:00 P.M. Time to switch from E! to ABC.  Just saw Natalie Portman … all is good.

7:03 P.M. Natalie Portman still looks perfect.  Even when she’s pregnant.

7:22 P.M. AHHHH 8 MINUTES!!! I’ve been where they had the red carpet and I’ve been on that stage, by the way.  It’s not a big deal.

7:37 P.M. This opening sequence is so funny I can’t even handle it.  “YOU JUST GOT INCEPTION’D.”  And the Morgan Freeman cameo is golden.

7:43 P.M. These meta-Oscars are too much for me to handle.  I feel like they are setting up a sweep for “The King’s Speech” and trying to justify their pick by comparing it to history.

7:47 P.M. There goes the momentum for “The King’s Speech!”  That art direction win for “Alice in Wonderland” was quite a shock.  But HOORAY FOR THE “INCEPTION” BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY WIN!  That makes me so happy!  And here’s to a future win for “The Dark Knight Rises!”  Ballot is 1/2 at the moment.

7:57 P.M. And the winner of Best Supporting Actress is … after much delay, sweet Kirk Douglas … Melissa Leo!  Well, there could be worse.  Called that one wrong!

8:00 P.M. Melissa Leo dropped the F-bomb!  She’ll never live that down … awkward moment for an awkward speech with a silent crowd.  And that whole moment with Kirk Douglas felt kinda staged.

8:20 P.M. Sorry for the massive delay, I had to restart my computer.  Much expected wins for “The King’s Speech” and “The Social Network” followed by incredibly charming and winning speeches by David Seidler and Aaron Sorkin.  The two juggernauts are tied at one apiece.  (And the Melissa Leo F-bomb makes for a nice recurring theme.  Better than Justin Timberlake wishing he was Banksy.  Millions of viewers at home are scratching their heads.)

8:25 P.M. Props to Anne Hathaway for whipping out the “Les Miserables.”  She just won my total approval.

8:33 P.M. And the Oscar goes to … CHRISTIAN BALE!!!  Good choice, Academy!  And a very nice speech to follow – although I think he forgot his wife’s name!  (Take that, “The King’s Speech!”  1/5!)

8:36 P.M. Side note: the trailer for “Super 8” makes me REALLY excited for 2011!  Is it too early to call a Best Picture nominee for next year?  I’ll be incredibly proud if I can look back next year and see that I got this right.

8:41 P.M. The THX sound brings back SO many bad memories from my childhood!  Ahhh, I was so scared of that thing!

8:44 P.M. Best Original Score, another category I love!  The winner is … “THE SOCIAL NETWORK!”  I’m ecstatic, that really was the best score of the year!  Ok, now I think that “The Social Network” might win Best Picture!!!!!!!  Hooray!  That deserves…

8:47 P.M. Best Sound Mixing and Editing?  “Inception” as expected!  Hooray!  That makes 3 for “Inception,” 2 for “The Fighter,” 2 for “The Social Network,” and 1 for “The King’s Speech.”

8:56 P.M. The meta-Oscars need to go for next year.

8:57 P.M. Cate Blanchett had it right when she said “that’s gross.”  The fact that we can say “the Academy Award-winning film The Wolfman” is sad.

8:59 P.M. DIE I AM LOVE!  But no “The King’s Speech” again!?!?!  That’s a shocker.  “Alice in Wonderland” has also momentarily eclipsed “The King’s Speech” in Oscar wins.

9:02 P.M. Observation only relevant for tonight: “The King’s Speech” is 1/8 so far.  That means at best, it will have 5 wins.  Most likely only 4.  Possibly only 3.  So much for Sasha Stone on Awards Daily saying that you had to predict the movie to win 6 statues.  I’m really thinking “The Social Network” will win Best Picture now.

9:04 P.M. Ok, the song from “Toy Story 3” is officially the most adorable thing in the world.  I’ll be upset now if it doesn’t win.

9:10 P.M. Wait, are the Oscars actually going to finish … on time?  Stay tuned for this exciting development.

9:14 P.M. Aaaaaand more meta-Oscars!  STOP!

9:16 P.M. “God of Love” for the win!  That’s one of my three short film guesses that panned out!

9:18 P.M. “The Social Network: The Musical” is catchy.  Can’t wait to see Justin Timberlake headline the original broadway cast!

9:22 P.M. HOORAY FOR CHARLES FERGUSON AND “INSIDE JOB!!!”  The best documentary I have ever seen just won a very deserved Academy Award!  Hopefully the politics of the speech don’t hurt him later… (And did anyone else see the Coen Brothers looking insanely bored!?)

9:28 P.M. I miss Billy Crystal hosting the Oscars!  He is so my childhood watching the Oscars!  And also, I’d like him to make a comeback in movies.

9:34 P.M. LOL to the top reference.  That makes it FOUR for “Inception!”

9:35 P.M. “The Social Network” wins AGAIN!  That’s three!  Hooray, things are looking up for team Facebook!!!

9:45 P.M. Woah, Gwyneth Paltrow is REALLY flat!  Yikes…

9:47 P.M. “Toy Story 3” wins!  That makes two and a very big smile on my face!!!  I heart Randy Newman.

9:51 P.M. I can dig the “Modern Family” Oscar charades commercial becoming an annual tradition.  “Eat Pray Chest!”

9:52 P.M. And having Celine Dion sing during the In Memoriam sequence just ruined it.  Way to go, Academy…

10:02 P.M. Entering the last half hour … with Best Director?!?  Before acting?

10:03 P.M. Booo!!!  David Fincher (or at least Darren Aronofsky) deserved it!  This awards ceremony is eerily reminiscent of the trajectory of the awards season.  Total buzzkill for “The Social Network.”

10:06 P.M. Seeing Annette Bening makes me really worried … if Natalie doesn’t win …

10:09 P.M. They can’t do this with Best Director again.  It makes the pit in my stomach last for 20 minutes as opposed to 5 minutes.  Not OK.

10:10 P.M. And there had better be some MASSIVE tribute to the Best Picture nominees coming up!  Because otherwise they got gypped!

10:16 P.M. ^^^ THIS GIRL JUST WON AN OSCAR!!!! I’M OBSESSED WITH NATALIE PORTMAN!!!!!! HOORAY FOR MAKING ONE GOOD PICK TONIGHT!

10:17 P.M. OH MY GOSH YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  I LOVE “BLACK SWAN!”

10:19 P.M. Who cares if her speech wasn’t that good, I’m so happy!!!!! Academy Award winner Natalie Portman!

10:25 P.M. And what we’ve been predicting for five months delivers.  Way to go, Colin Firth!

10:28 P.M. Only one award left…AHHH!!!

10:36 P.M. And the Academy’s Best Picture of the Year is … “The King’s Speech.”  They’ll regret this one later.  Way to send the message, “Yes!  You can make a movie that tailors to every single one of our needs!  We will give it four Oscars!”

10:38 P.M. Four for “Inception” and “The King’s Speech,” three for “The Social Network,” two for “Alice in Wonderland,” “The Fighter,” and “Toy Story 3.”

10:40 P.M. Cool group photo?  Weird ending…

11:03 P.M. Just saw some of the arrivals to the after-parties on E! while unloading the dishwasher.  Not entertaining enough to keep me from doing my homework/studying … until next awards season, my friends!