Marshall and the Movies

4:00 P.M.  E! has already started their Golden Globe coverage, so I guess it’s time for me to begin as well!  Time for the best of Hollywood (and television) to come out and get rewarded (or robbed).  Predictions will slowly trickle in as the stars grace the red carpet, but I’ll be writing from the arrivals to the awards to Ricky Gervais’ harsh quips.  With recaps, opinions, and insights, make “Marshall and the Movies” your companion for the Golden Globes!

NOTE: Since I’ll be sitting over my computer all night, feel free to ask any questions in the comments section and I’ll give you a prompt answer!  Want to know how I feel about something?  Anything bugging you?  Something that you are DYING to know?  Sound off!

4:12 P.M.  Might as well start my predictions!  Let’s begin with the music categories.

Best Score

• Will win: Ludovic Bource, “The Artist”
• Could win: John Williams, “War Horse”

Because Bource essentially told the story of “The Artist” … but you can never have certainty with John Williams in the mix.

Best Song

• Will win: The Living Proof, “The Help”
• Could win: Masterpiece, “W.E.”

Because “The Help” is a Best Picture nominee … but you never know if they want to bring Madonna on stage.

4:40 P.M.  And the first celebrity to grace the red carpet is … Sharon Osbourne!  This calls for more predictions.

Best Foreign Film

• Will win: “A Separation”
• Could win: “In the Land of Blood and Honey”

Because “A Separation” is unanimously acclaimed as one of the best movies of the year … but you never know if they want Angelina Jolie to take the stage.

Best Animated Film

• Will win: “Rango”
• Could win: “The Adventures of Tintin”

Because “Rango” has the momentum in the first year where Pixar hasn’t had a major contender in history … but you never know if they want Steven Spielberg to take the stage.

5:00 P.M.  Time for the REAL red carpet to begin … which means time for REAL predictions!

Best Supporting Actress

• Will win: Berenice Bejo, “The Artist”
• Could win: Octavia Spencer, “The Help”

This could be where Spencer pulls away from the pack and uses the momentum from her BFCA win to coast to the podium at the Oscars. But I don’t think it will be resolved that simply – watch out for Bejo to slip in on vote splitting.

Best Supporting Actor

• Will win: Christopher Plummer, “Beginners”
• Could win: Albert Brooks, “Drive”

It’s Plummer all the way. And well deserved, too. No one is going to stop him.

5:13 P.M.  Ryan Seacrest asks, “Why are the Golden Globes fun?”  George Clooney replies, “Because people get drunk and make funny speeches.”

5:18 P.M.  Dan says he’s looking forward to the night’s festivities because of who Ricky Gervais is going to offend.  Aren’t we all?

5:20 P.M.  I see a TV spot for “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close,” which makes me excited for Friday.  Do I care that it is up for zero Golden Globes?  Answer: no.

5:25 P.M.  I see Melissa McCarthy and her husband, the air marshal!  Time for the comedy acting categories … but not before a great clip from “Bridesmaids!”

Best Actress – Musical/Comedy

• Will win: Michelle Williams, “My Week with Marilyn”
• Could win: Kristin Wiig, “Bridesmaids”

Michelle Williams, in what is definitely a dramatic performance, has the clear leg up on the competition here. A Wiig surprise could conceivably happen if only because of all the “Bridesmaids” love, but if the HFPA couldn’t be bothered to nominated Melissa McCarthy, I don’t think they’ll give the movie’s unsung hero a trophy.

Best Actor – Musical/Comedy

• Will win: Jean Dujardin, “The Artist”
• Could win: Owen Wilson, “Midnight in Paris”

I don’t see how this could go any other way – perhaps the HFPA will love “Midnight in Paris” more than “The Artist,” but it’s hard to argue that Owen Wilson gave a better performance than Dujardin. I’d also love to see a Gordon-Levitt surprise, but that’s not very likely.

5:36 P.M.  Rooney Mara has arrived, looking 100% Erica Albright and 0% Lisbeth Salander!

5:45 P.M.  Octavia Spencer is so great; I’ll be so happy if she wins.  Let’s continue with my predictions for Best Director and Best Screenplay.

Best Screenplay

• Will win: “The Descendants”
• Could win: “Midnight in Paris”

The adapted screenplay always seems to have the leg up in this category (all but two originals have won since 2000) at the Globes, which clumps all scripts together while the Academy divides. The HFPA loves Woody Allen, sure, but they usually take the brains here. I’m picking Payne and company for “The Descendants” because it seems to be the most mutually and unilaterally praised writing of the year.

Best Director

• Will win: Martin Scorsese, “Hugo”
• Could win: Michel Hazanavicius, “The Artist”

Conventional wisdom says never predict a split, but let’s not forget that the Golden Globes are celebrity butt-kissers who will do anything short of bribery – no, wait, they fell for that – to get them to the ceremony and maybe to the stage. They love Scorsese, awarding him Best Director in 2002 when his movie didn’t win Best Picture and again in 2006 when his movie did. The Globes aren’t afraid to split picture-director either; they’ve done it four times since 2000. So who knows? They have a chance to really shape the Oscar narrative here, so I’m definitely the most intrigued by the outcome of this race tonight.

5:51 P.M.  Kristen Wiig … brunette?  I see it all the time on “Saturday Night Live,” but that doesn’t make it any less strange on the red carpet.

6:00 P.M.  One hour until the show!  Here are my predictions for the dramatic acting categories:

Best Actress – Drama

• Will win: Viola Davis, “The Help”
• Could win: Meryl Streep, “The Iron Lady”

The brain says Streep, but the heart says Davis. Streep has won two Golden Globes in the last five years, but those were both in the comedy category where she ran virtually uncontested. I say that the Globes give something to “The Help” by copying the BFCA and rewarding Davis.

Best Actor – Drama

• Will win: George Clooney, “The Descendants”
• Could win: Brad Pitt, “Moneyball”

It’s another drama duel; I say advantage Clooney here because the HFPA fawned all over him this year, giving four nominations to his ailing “The Ides of March” when very few others did.  But they’ve thrown a curveball here before.

6:05 P.M.  Bérénice Bejo is so charming; it’s fun to watch her experiencing the awards circuit for the first time.

6:20 P.M.  Getting close to the show … here’s my take on Best Picture, Musical/Comedy.

Best Picture – Musical/Comedy

• Will win: “The Artist”
• Could win: “Midnight in Paris”

Maybe this is where “Midnight in Paris” begins to eat away at the lead of “The Artist.”  But I think that’s something that the guilds will have to do because the critics have drunk the Kool-Aid and are almost wholeheartedly behind this movie.

6:30 P.M.  30 minutes left, still in love with Mila Kunis … I guess I might as well do my final prediction!

Best Picture – Drama

• Will win: “The Descendants”
• Could win: “The Help”

What has a leading actor nomination, a directing nomination, and a screenplay nomination in this category? “The Ides of March” … and “The Descendants.” I take the latter, obviously. The Globes have really vacillated from year to year on what they reward in this category. Sometimes it’s the consensus critical favorite, like “The Social Network” or “Slumdog Millionaire.” Sometimes it’s bait, like “Atonement” or “The Aviator.” Sometimes it’s the movie that’s the biggest story, like “Avatar.” Each of these make the case for “The Help” or “Hugo” to break through here, but I still take Payne and “The Descendants.”

6:58 P.M.  Now it’s time to switch over to NBC!

7:01 P.M.  “So, where was I?” – Ricky Gervais.

7:02 P.M.  “Between Adam Sandler and Eddie Murphy, they played all the parts in ‘The Help!'”

7:07 P.M.  “Are you ready, Johnny … have you seen ‘The Tourist‘ yet?”  Thank God he hasn’t let up.

7:10 P.M.  Hooray for Christopher Plummer!

7:14 P.M.  Gotta love how Tina Fey was totally photobombing while they were talking about Amy Poehler.

7:20 P.M.  Gotta love improv when the teleprompter breaks … “When was the last time you did a cold reading in front of Steven Spielberg?” – Rob Lowe

7:26 P.M.  Kate Winslet wins another Golden Globe, this time on the television side.  That’s three career trophies, for those keeping score at home.

7:28 P.M.  “Hugo” and “Midnight in Paris” are the first Best Picture nominees to be presented … winners?

7:33 P.M.  Jeremy Irons is seriously creepy with his hand rubbing the president of the HFPA’s shoulder.

7:35 P.M.  “You don’t need to thank your family who have done nothing for this; just thank two, your agent and God.” – Ricky Gervais

7:35 P.M.  “She defacated in a sink – which is probably much less demeaning than what most of you have done to get in show business.” – Ricky Gervais on Melissa McCarthy

7:45 P.M.  Jimmy Fallon has a whole lot of energy…

7:46 P.M.  That’s one for “The Artist!”  A well deserved win for Best Score!

7:50 P.M.  Called it, should have predicted it … they definitely just wanted Madonna up on stage.  Best Song winners at the Golden Globes have a pretty dismal track record at the Oscars though.  Since 2004, only ONE winner has even been nominated at the Academy Awards!

8:00 P.M.  “Hello, I’m Seth Rogen and I’m currently trying to conceal a massive erection [while standing next to Kate Beckinsale].”

8:02 P.M.  A well-deserved win for Michelle Williams, but I’m glad Seth Rogen called out the movie for being “a side-splitting comedy.”  Loved the shout-out to her daughter in the speech.

8:04 P.M.  Shout out to Steven Flores who aired his disgust with Madonna winning.  Here’s my question: where were the Muppets?

8:09 P.M.  Miles Finch!

8:11 P.M.  I googled Martin Henderson for you.

8:12 P.M.  Gotta love George Clooney being so playful with Brad Pitt.  “I have to return the cane otherwise he can’t make it to the bar.”

8:14 P.M.  Hooray for “Tintin!”  Glad I was wrong!

8:15 P.M.  Who would have thought Spielberg would be giving a speech for “The Adventures of Tintin” as opposed to “War Horse” a few months ago?  Gotta love how conventional wisdom turns out so wrong sometimes.

8:23 P.M.  WOW!  YES!  WOODY ALLEN FOR “MIDNIGHT IN PARIS!!!!!!!!!”  ON WE GO TO THE OSCARS!

8:27 P.M.  ^ Could not be happier to be wrong!  I guess with this and the BFCA win, we can sew up this category for Woody!

8:33 P.M.  And Best Foreign Film goes to “A Separation.”  We have our Oscar front-runner, and it’s looking pretty unstoppable.

8:35 P.M.  I’d like to point out that Claire Danes has now also won three Golden Globes.  Yes, that’s as many as Kate Winslet.

8:47 P.M.  It’s Octavia Spencer!  Looks like she’s headed full steam ahead for an Oscar!!

8:49 P.M.  Classy speech, clutch quote of MLK.  Would have liked to have heard more substance and fewer names to help her make the case for an Oscar.

8:56 P.M.  A fitting standing ovation for a living legend, Sidney Poitier.

9:03 P.M.  Good heavens, Morgan Freeman has been in so many incredible movies.  And has been incredible in nearly all of them.  Just wow.

9:10 P.M.  Ricky Gervais has been much too tame, and absent.

9:13 P.M.  What’s with Best Director being presented before acting awards now?  I don’t like it.

9:14 P.M.  Called Scorsese.  I know have to wonder if “The Artist” is at risk now; Hazanavicius is for sure.  The DGA is going to make a huge difference now in the Best Picture race.  Maybe it’s a split year?  Who knows?!

9:16 P.M.  Looks like someone just pulled a Melissa Leo…

9:25 P.M.  Jean Dujardin, very nice.

9:27 P.M.  A very nice speech considering that he doesn’t speak English!  I loved the Douglas Fairbanks bit at the end!  And I could get used to hearing this theme all awards season.

9:34 P.M.  “What you don’t know about [Colin Firth] is that he’s extremely racist.” – Ricky Gervais

9:35 P.M.  Meryl Streep!  Wow, this is going to make for a very interesting year in Best Actress!

9:39 P.M.  “When Ricky Gervais’ deal fell through and they came to me to play Margaret Thatcher…” followed by a bleeped-out curse … followed by her listing off every single female performance of the year except Michelle Williams … followed by George Clooney passing up her glasses … followed by her referring to Harvey Weinstein as “God” and “The Punisher” … followed by music … followed by a shout out to Viola Davis.  If this wasn’t Meryl Streep, this would bode ill for her Oscar chances.

9:41 P.M.  Best Picture for “The Artist.”  Onto the Oscars, maybe … not if unenthused Piper Perabo has anything to say about it.

9:43 P.M.  OH MY GOD UGGIE!!!!!!!!!  Ok, I’m sold.  This can win Best Picture if the dog gets to come on stage.

9:48 P.M.  And I’m still in love with Natalie Portman…

9:48 P.M.  George Clooney!  If it couldn’t be Fassbender, then definitely him!

9:50 P.M.  A very nice but short speech, very poised.  With this and BFCA, I think we can seal this race for him.

9:56 P.M.  And the main challenger for “The Artist” is … “The Descendants!”

9:57 P.M.  Now THIS makes for an interesting race!  Especially if “The Help” takes the SAG ensemble like most expect it to, we could be looking at a 2006 scenario where three movies have a legitimate claim to be called the favorite.  WOOHOO OSCAR SEASON!

9:59 P.M.  Well, folks, that ends my coverage.  “The Artist” ruled the night with three wins; “The Descendants” and “The Help” were close behind with two victories each.  “Hugo” took Best Director and “Midnight in Paris” took screenplay, making a number of categories nail-biters up until the envelope is opened at the Kodak Theater!