Well, folks, the time is here to talk about Oscar season. The Venice Film Festival kicks off tomorrow, and suddenly it won’t be taboo to talk about what might be competing for the Academy Awards.
Just to show you how much things change over the course of the fall, last year I predicted “The Master” to win Best Picture at this time – and it wound up not being nominated. I was close for Best Director and Best Actor, though, ranking Ang Lee and Daniel Day-Lewis my #2 pick in their respective categories. Jennifer Lawrence was not remotely on my radar, but my projected winner Quvenzhané Wallis did manage to get a nomination! I got the movie right for Best Supporting Actor, but picked Leonardo DiCaprio instead of Christoph Waltz as the “Django Unchained” cast member to hoist the Oscar. And I, like everyone else, saw Anne Hathaway’s win coming from the moment the first “Les Misérables” trailer hit the web.
So what will surprise us this year? And what will disappoint? Here’s my first draft at a year in Oscar forecasting.
Best Picture
- American Hustle (trailer)
- 12 Years a Slave (trailer)
- Foxcatcher
- August: Osage County (trailer)
- Gravity (trailer)
- The Monuments Men (trailer)
- Her (trailer)
- Inside Llewyn Davis (trailer)
- Labor Day
- The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (trailer)
There seems to be no clear frontrunner a la “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” or “War Horse” for 2013. So I’m just going to gander it’s a dues-paying year. It seems like David O. Russell, after two straight Best Picture-Best Director nominations for “The Fighter” and “Silver Linings Playbook,” is now on the fast track to win someday. So why not 2013 with “American Hustle?” A glitzy period drama that looks to provide action, comedy, and drama looks pretty good on paper to me.
Another film I could see making a charge at the prize is Steve McQueen’s “12 Years A Slave.” Despite all the talent involved in this film, I think it might still be an underdog given that McQueen’s previous two films have not received a single Oscar nomination. Then again, Tom Hooper was a relative novice when he directed “The King’s Speech,” and we know how that story ends.
Previous Best Director nominees Bennett Miller (“Foxcatcher”), George Clooney (“The Monuments Men”), Spike Jonze (“Her”), the Coen Brothers (“Inside Llewyn Davis”), and Jason Reitman (“Labor Day”) all look to get in the Best Picture race. Based on their pedigree alone, I’m predicting nominations for these five films. All are sight unseen, save “Inside Llewyn Davis,” which I have seen and can attest is the kind of well-made film that will score with the Academy.
I guess I could include Alfonso Cuaron’s “Gravity” in this clump, since the film’s director is an Oscar-nominated screenwriter and editor. But that film gets a Best Picture nomination, in my mind, because it belongs in a class with “Avatar,” “Hugo,” and “Life of Pi” – technical masterpieces directed by renowned talents.
As for “August: Osage County,” that play is so well-written that it would take a first-class hack job for it not to be a Best Picture nominee. We’re talking a play that will go next to Arthur Miller and Tennessee Williams in the American dramatic literature canon, people.
And to round out the top 10, I picked Ben Stiller’s “The Secret Life of Walter Mitty.” I’m not entirely sold on it, but it could make a surprise run for Best Picture. It could also fizzle with awards voters. Who knows? Clearly not I.
Best Director
- David O. Russell, “American Hustle”
- Bennett Miller, “Foxcatcher”
- Steve McQueen, “12 Years A Slave”
- Alfonso Cuarón, “Gravity”
- Spike Jonze, “Her”
As I said, I’m projecting Russell to go all the way in 2013.
Past nominee Bennett Miller could give him a run for his money, although he was overlooked for his work on 2011 Best Picture nominee “Moneyball.” Steve McQueen and Alfonso Cuaron should score their first Best Director nominations (which is a shame).
And since Spike Jonze scored a lone Best Director nomination for “Being John Malkovich” back in 1999, I don’t think it’s out of the question to see him score a second nomination for his work on “Her.” It certainly appears to be daring … and the director’s branch showed they were willing to go out on a limb last year with nominees Benh Zeitlin and Michael Haneke.
Best Actor
- Matthew McConaughey, “Dallas Buyers Club”
- Joaquin Phoenix, “Her”
- Chiwetel Ejiofor, “12 Years A Slave”
- Oscar Isaac, “Inside Llewyn Davis”
- Robert Redford, “All Is Lost”
Big, baity performances have won out here for the past decade, essentially. So I’d say the frontrunner has to be Matthew McConaughey in “Dallas Buyers Club.” His comeback narrative is appealing, and the fact that he lost a ton of weight helps.
That being said, I wouldn’t count out Joaquin Phoenix for “Her.” If he could get nominated for a polarizing film like “The Master,” perhaps there’s more respect for Phoenix in the Academy than most people recognize. He’s been nominated three times now, and I think it’s only a matter of time before he wins.
Chiwetel Ejiofor could easily supplant McConaughey as the bait performance to beat here. A frontrunner will be cemented by the time both films debut at Toronto.
Breakout performer Oscar Isaac ought to score a nod here for “Inside Llewyn Davis.” I don’t see how he can be overlooked if the movie is a hit with the Academy.
And keep an eye out for Robert Redford here. He gives an incredible, virtually wordless performance in “All Is Lost” that will not be forgotten. The Hollywood legend hasn’t been nominated for his acting in over 40 years, and the one Oscar sitting on his mantle is for directing. Might it be his time in the sun?
Best Actress
- Amy Adams, “American Hustle”
- Cate Blanchett, “Blue Jasmine”
- Naomi Watts, “Diana”
- Kate Winslet, “Labor Day”
- Emma Thompson, “Saving Mr. Banks”
Please, Academy, make this Amy Adams’ year! She’s been nominated four times already in Best Supporting Actress. Now that she’s playing with the big girls in Best Actress, maybe it’s just time to give her the darned trophy already.
Woody Allen hasn’t directed a woman to a leading actress win since Diane Keaton in “Annie Hall” – perhaps Cate Blanchett’s turn in “Blue Jasmine” can break the dry spell? I think she’s a sure bet for a nomination, but another win is unlikely since Blanchett has won in the past decade.
Or maybe it’s Naomi Watts’ turn after coming up short for last year’s “The Impossible.” If the Academy loves this two-time nominee, an uncanny performance as Princess Diana would be a good time to give it to her.
Kate Winslet has been nominated for six Oscars and has won one. So why would the love stop now? In her first notable screen performance since winning for 2008’s “The Reader,” she could rack up nomination number 7 and be well on her way to becoming the Meryl Streep of her generation.
Speaking of Meryl Streep, I could be making a mistake by not including her here. She would definitely crack my top 5, but I’m hearing that she’ll be campaigned in supporting. So for now, that fifth slot goes to Emma Thompson for the breezy “Saving Mr. Banks.”
Best Supporting Actor
- Michael Fassbender, “12 Years A Slave”
- Bradley Cooper, “American Hustle”
- Daniel Bruhl, “Rush”
- Steve Carell, “Foxcatcher”
- Tom Hanks, “Saving Mr. Banks”
Go big or go home. After being snubbed for his incredible work in “Shame,” I predict the Academy will right its wrongs and reward Michael Fassbender with an Oscar for “12 Years A Slave.” I really hope I’m right.
Bradley Cooper, given the villain role in “American Hustle,” could capitalize on a year of goodwill after a nomination from “Silver Linings Playbook.” He’s probably a safer pick, but I’m not interested in safe at this point.
After last year’s category was dominated by previous winners, I’m going to predict two more first-time nominees in this category: Daniel Bruhl for “Rush,” whose performance has been touted since Cannes, and Steve Carell for “Foxcatcher,” a darker role for the comedic actor.
And then I’ll predict Tom Hanks as Walt Disney in “Saving Mr. Banks” because that proposition just sounds too good to pass up for Academy voters.
Best Supporting Actress
- Oprah Winfrey, “The Butler”
- Meryl Streep, “August: Osage County”
- Octavia Spencer, “Fruitvale Station”
- Cameron Diaz, “The Counselor”
- Jennifer Lawrence, “American Hustle”
Honestly, this category is such a toss-up at this point, so I’m forced to pick the only person with buzz at the moment: Oprah Winfrey for “The Butler.” Beyond her, my confidence ends. If the Weinstein Company had announced what Meryl Streep will be campaigned in, I’d feel confident picking her in whatever category they chose. Right now, I’m going with supporting.
I thought Octavia Spencer was the best part of “Fruitvale Station,” but her part may be too small or too soon after her win for “The Help.”
Cameron Diaz looks like an intriguing femme fatale in “The Counselor,” but that movie could flop so hardcore that she’s rendered a non-factor this season. With no festival appearances slated, the film does not appear to be a serious threat for anything. Diaz has been pretty quiet lately, but let’s not forget she had a string of acclaimed roles from 1998 to 2002 that gave her 4 Golden Globe nominations and 3 SAG Award nominations.
And as for that last slot, I figured I might as well throw in Jennifer Lawrence for “American Hustle.” Everyone loves J.Law, and I think enough people will like “American Hustle” to give her a victory lap after last year’s win.
Best Original Screenplay
- American Hustle
- Inside Llewyn Davis
- Blue Jasmine
- Her
- Gravity
David O. Russell is a two-time writing nominee? Check for “American Hustle.”
The Coen Brothers are five-time writing nominees with two wins? Check for “Inside Llewyn Davis.”
Woody Allen has been nominated for Best Original Screenplay a whopping 15 times, and “Blue Jasmine” does not suck. Check.
Spike Jonze is an acclaimed original figure in Hollywood? Check for “Her,” but with some reluctance as “The Master” was snubbed last year for the clichéd “Flight.”
Alfonso Cuaron is a two-time writing nominee, but his latest film “Gravity” might be a lot more impressive on the screen than it is on the page. Perhaps he will wow us once again and make us regret ever doubting him … so I’ll predict “Gravity” to take the final slot here. But “Black Swan” missed here, so originality isn’t everything in the Best Original Screenplay category.
Best Adapted Screenplay
- 12 Years A Slave
- Foxcatcher
- The Monuments Men
- August: Osage County
- Before Midnight
It would be foolish of me not to predict a lot of Best Picture nominees here, which traditionally dominate the Best Adapted Screenplay category. But don’t count out “Before Midnight,” whose predecessor scored a nomination back in 2004 in this category. The series, and this installment in particular, has gotten a lot of positive press. I don’t think the writers will forget about this one.
What do you think? Who is the one to beat in 2013? Sound off!
I’m a firm believer that there are some source texts that are absolutely impossible to botch, provided they keep the main narrative intact. Tracy Letts’ play “August: Osage County” belongs in such a category.
The top 3 seem pretty secure to me. There’s a slim chance of Hanks falling out simply because this isn’t his first rodeo and voters might want to give their vote to a fresher face. But aside from frontrunners McConaughey and Ejiofor, very few of the top nominees are new to the game.
Blanchett has this all but sealed up now. It would take a major blunder on-stage for her to lose Best Actress at this point, but we all know that’s not going to happen. It’s Cate Blanchett – she’s about the classiest actress around.
Amy Adams is an Academy favorite herself though, racking up an impressive four Best Supporting Actress nominations in the past nine years. She’s never been recognized as a leading lady, and a nomination here would send the message, “We’re working on getting you that Oscar win one day, Amy, we promise!” Though she did not land a SAG nomination, she’s been recognized by the BFCA and BAFTA. Moreover, she 
While I remain hopeful that Fassbender can pull an upset, this category looks to be all Jared Leto. He’s been taking everything in his path, and I don’t think that will stop until the Oscar. For Fassbender, though, he should at least take solace in getting his first nomination without campaigning a bit. (If he had to work so hard only to be denied recognition for his astounding work in “Shame,” then why bother lobbying anymore?)
Cooper was passed over by SAG in favor of a posthumous recognition for James Gandolfini in “Enough Said.” While he was certainly a beloved actor, Gandolfini was more revered for his television work than his film roles. (“
It’s down to Nyong’o vs. Lawrence for the win here. Though Lawrence prevailed at the star-powered Golden Globes, I still have my doubts as to whether she can swing back-to-back Oscar wins. I think this category could also be a way for us to gauge on Oscar night which film will win Best Picture. Both films are likely to need one acting victory, and Best Supporting Actress is the most probable place to earn it. (Ejiofor has a shot for Best Actor, and that might pan out for the film.)
My guess is that the Academy will stick to some long renowned actresses to fill out the roster. Oprah Winfrey surprisingly missed with the Golden Globes for “The Butler,” but she’s been touted by the BFCA, SAG, and BAFTA. Even though the film has lost its buzz after it scored surprisingly well with the SAG, I think the Oscars will still want to give something to one of the few screen performances given by the cultural icon.
Marshall and the Movies 
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