Oscar Moment: “Nowhere Boy”

15 10 2010

With the expansion of the Best Picture field, we have to take into account all sorts of contenders for Best Picture.  “Nowhere Boy” is a movie that wouldn’t have much of a chance in a field of five, but it seems like a good Golden Globes film that might have a nice shot at some Oscar nominations.

Based on the early years of John Lennon (Aaron Johnson of Kick-Ass fame), the movie leads into the founding of the world’s most famous band, The Beatles.  It also focuses on Lennon’s relationship with two important women, his aunt Mimi (Kristin Scott Thomas) and his mother (Anne-Marie Duff).  It’s an appealing biopic that has been certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes and is expanding into over 200 theaters this weekend after doing respectable business in its American opening.

I say American opening because “Nowhere Boy” opened last Christmas in the UK, making it eligible for the BAFTAs, the British equivalent of the Oscars.  It fared pretty well there, receiving nominations for Outstanding British Film, Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer, and two nominations for Best Supporting Actress honoring Scott Thomas and Duff.  Given the press that the growing British faction of the Academy has received over the past few years, it would be unwise to discount a movie that they clearly liked quite a bit.

Since the movie is centered around the very musical Lennon, it will be considered in the Musical/Comedy category at the Golden Globes where it will not have a hard time scoring nominations for Best Picture and perhaps Best Actor for Aaron Johnson.  Scott Thomas and Duff, however, will be competing against dramatic supporting actresses.

In their favor, though, is that the category is still incredibly wide-open with no frontrunner or even sure-fire nominees.  Both is going to be hard for a movie that doesn’t have Best Picture written all over it, but one of them could find a nice slot.  My money is on previous Oscar nominee Kristin Scott Thomas, who found herself in contention for “The English Patient” 14 years ago.  Although if the voters are feeling younger this year – and they very well might with players like Hailee Steinfeld and Elle Fanning in the race – the pendulum could swing towards Anne-Marie Duff.  Hate to say it, but Johnson doesn’t stand much of a chance given his young age and the tight Best Actor category.

And in October, I don’t think we would be entirely remiss to say “Nowhere Boy” has an outside shot at Best Picture.  It’s an incredible dark horse, but if it finds an audience and does well at the Golden Globes, it might be able to sneak in.  It’s not looking good for “Never Let Me Go,” one of the movies I presumed would tickle the Academy’s British fancy, but “The King’s Speech” is looking strong, so who knows how much Brit they can take in a year?

BEST BETS FOR NOMINATIONS: Best Supporting Actress (Scott Thomas)

OTHER POSSIBLE NOMINATIONS: Best Picture, Best Supporting Actress (Duff)


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Categories : 2010 - Oscar Moment, Oscar Moment

Oscar Moment: “Waiting for Superman”

12 10 2010

Like I said, I’m trying to take a more active interest in the Best Documentary Feature race this year.  While it may have seemed more obvious to start with “Waiting for Superman” and leave “Inside Job” for later, the timing was just too good to do it the other way around.

It seems perfectly logical to think that “Waiting for Superman” could win the Oscar.  The topic is timely – education reform is very much in the public consciousness.  Some have even dubbed it a concern of our “national security.”  The public school system is in need of some changes, and I don’t think anyone will deny it.

Who better to explore these problems than the person who made global warming real and Al Gore a celebrity?  Davis Guggenheim, Academy Award winner for “An Inconvenient Truth,” is back to expose another social issue (although sans a former vice-president).  While Guggenheim is a staunch liberal and very pro-public schooling, he took a step backwards to examine what’s really best for the kids.  There’s a fascinating spotlight on him in New York Magazine on him that I highly recommend reading.  Here’s an excerpt on the concept behind the movie:

“Superman” affectingly, movingly traces the stories of five children—all but one of them poor and black or Hispanic—and their parents as they seek to secure a decent education by gaining admission via lottery to high-performing charter schools. At the same time, the film is a withering indictment of the adults—in particular, those at the teachers unions—who have let the public-school system rot, and a paean to reformers such as Canada and Michelle Rhee, chancellor of the Washington, D.C., public schools, who has waged an epic campaign to overhaul the notoriously dysfunctional system over which she presides.

According to the Education Secretary Anne Duncan, the movie calls our attention to brutal truths and is unafraid to confront them.  If the movie proves to do just that and the movie catches on with the general moviegoing public, “Waiting for Superman” could very well just be “An Inconvenient Truth: Schools Edition.”  Such could be the formula where the output is Oscar gold.  But does the 2006 equation work in 2010?

The movie’s marketing campaign is setting the stage for Oscar gold by putting the message into action.  There is a whole site for “ACTION” on the website giving ways that the average person can help the schooling system.  Rallying the community behind a cause worked for “The Cove,” last year’s winner, so the idea has proved to be very winning.

But is America as ready for the message of “Waiting for Superman” as they were for the message of “An Inconvenient Truth?”  Both movies involve us admitting that we are at fault for some of the problems; apparently much of the blame here will fall on neglectful adults.  It doesn’t seem to be off-putting to the audiences so far.  In only 103 theaters, it has grossed $1.5 million in three weeks and expansion will continue over the next few weeks.  For the sake of comparison, it’s moving at about half the pace of “An Inconvenient Truth” which grossed $24 million, yet the statistics are still very impressive.

If “Waiting for Superman” gets the full support of the audiences and manages to promote positive social change, this could be an unstoppable force in the Best Documentary race – and who knows, maybe 2010 is progressive enough to nominate a documentary in Best Picture?  I’d say it’s an extreme long shot at best, but if the slate thins out, this is a very good option.  With a 93% on Rotten Tomatoes, it has the critical support to get there.

As you can see, President Obama had a meeting with some of the kids featured in the movie.  If “Waiting for Superman” has his attention, you can bet it will get some good Academy attention.

BEST BETS FOR NOMINATIONS: Best Documentary Feature

OTHER POSSIBLE NOMINATIONS: Best Picture


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Oscar Moment: “Inside Job”

8 10 2010

There are many categories on my Oscar ballot that I always call a toss-up, such as the short films.  However, one such category regrettably includes the Best Documentary Feature, which I have, in the past, had little interest in.  These movies tackle important current events or shine new perspectives on old ones, and as I’ve become more educated, these have become more intriguing to me.

So in 2010, I’ve vowed to take an active interest in handicapping the Best Documentary Feature race, and it starts today with this Oscar Moment.  First on tap is Charles Ferguson’s “Inside Job,” the documentary on the 2008 financial collapse that opens today in New York and Los Angeles.

The documentary first made a blip on my radar when it premiered at Cannes back in May.  There it was the best reviewed movie of the festival, receiving nothing but the highest of praise from all angles.  According to IndieWIRE, “Inside Job” was the only movie at Cannes to score an A average.  Sony Pictures Classics picked it up there in France and played it at the Toronto and Telluride Film Festivals last month and the New York Film Festival last week.

The movie makes the argument that Wall Street has been heading for collapse ever since the 1980s when institutions were allowed to trade on their own behalf.  The idea that banks and firms are betting against the customers is frightening, and the marketing campaign behind the movie seeks to make it look like an “economic horror movie.”  It’s an interesting notion, and given some of the movie’s revelations, Sony Pictures Classics may be on to something.

The movie is more than just Ferguson’s hypotheses based on CNBC reports; he managed to get some high-profile figures on camera.  While there’s no Alan Greenspan or Ben Bernanke, he did manage to land former New York Governor Eliot Spitzer and a high-end Wall Street prostitute.  These interviews make for an interesting aspect, according to Kris Tapley of In Contention:

With the brave subjects at apparent fault who somehow thought it was a good idea to go before Ferguson’s lens, the filmmaker takes on the role of interrogator, holding fast as they squirm and never allowing retreat (to the point that one subject, clearly flustered, asks that the camera be turned off for a moment). The thickness of the material and the dizzying nature of the underhanded tactics held up for examination pretty much becomes the point as the film moves on.

The movie is narrated by all-American boy Matt Damon, but it seems to me like Ferguson is the big character in the movie.  He has a stance, and he’s not afraid to put himself out there to make it known.  This isn’t just the facts; there is a slant.  The politics of “Inside Job” line up nicely with Academy politics, so the movie’s opinion certainly won’t work against it.

The real question is if “Inside Job” will align with the Academy’s flavor of the month in the documentary category.  Last year’s winner, “The Cove,” dealt with a very strong ethical cause that had not been anywhere in the news.  Two years ago, “Man on Wire” told the story of Philipe Petit’s 1973 walk between the World Trade Center towers.  Three years ago, Ferguson’s own Iraq documentary “No End in Sight” lost to “Taxi to the Dark Side,” which took a look at American policy on torture in Iraq.  Four years ago, winner “An Inconvenient Truth” made global warming an issue.  Five years ago, “March of the Penguin” charmed everyone in America.

Political hot-button issues may have a place on Fox News and CNN, but the Academy doesn’t always welcome them as we can see by their track record over the last five years.  With the economy being all over the news, do we need it again at the Oscars?

BEST BETS FOR NOMINATIONS: Best Documentary Feature


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Oscar Moment: “Hereafter”

5 10 2010

There was once a time when a Clint Eastwood movie being released meant instant Oscar attention and presumed to have nearly automatic entry into the Best Picture category.  Wait, that was just in 2008.  After picking up his second Best Picture/Best Director combo package for “Million Dollar Baby” in 2004 and nominations for “Letters from Iwo Jima” in 2006, the Academy has been cold as ice to the 80-year-old legendary filmmaker.

Is it a sort of backlash to Eastwood?  Have they simply had enough of him?  Or have his last three movies just really not been that good?

I personally don’t think he will ever win again, simply because twice is nice – and enough.  However, he can still have some horses in the race; they just aren’t in it for the win.  If Clint Eastwood directs one of the ten best movies of the year, they can’t be denied a spot simply by virtue of being directed by Eastwood.

So where does that put us with “Hereafter?”  We’ve hit the pedigree, which is kind of a toss-up as to whether it will hurt or help come awards season.  As of now, all we have to work with is critical reaction and looking at how the Academy has reacted historically to similar movies.

Eastwood’s latest directorial venture debuted last month at the Toronto Film Festival to a very polarized reaction.  Some critics seemed to really like it.  Roger Ebert went to bat in a big way for the movie:

“Clint Eastwood’s ‘Hereafter’ considers the possibility of an afterlife with tenderness, beauty and a gentle tact. I was surprised how enthralling I found it. I don’t believe in woo-woo, but there’s no woo-woo anywhere to be seen. It doesn’t even properly suppose an afterlife, but only the possibility of consciousness after apparent death … it is made with the reserve, the reluctance to take obvious emotional shortcuts, that is a hallmark of Eastwood as a filmmaker. This is the film of a man at peace. He has nothing to prove except his care for the story.”

Other critics, however, were not impressed.  Many called it the worst movie Eastwood has ever directed.  Some used words like uneven” while others just went straight to “trash.”  But according to Kris Tapley of In Contention, this may not be entirely bad.

“… even among the appreciators, Peter Morgan’s script may come together in a rather unsatisfying manner in the third act.  But words like “facile,” “cliche” and “manipulative” describe many, many former Oscar nominees and winners, so we should keep an eye on it.  To be perfectly honest, it sounds like a contender now more than ever.”

As I have said many times before, critical tastes do not determine Best Picture.  They didn’t love “The Blind Side,” and it still got in.  They didn’t lavish praise on “The Reader,” and it still got in.  While critics can shape Academy taste, they do not define it.  The Academy is not a group of critics; it is a group of filmmakers.  The fact that it has gotten a polarizing reaction thus far is not necessarily bad.  Several of last year’s Best Picture nominees had their fair share of detractors, such as “Avatar,” “Inglourious Basterds,” and even “Precious.”

And while on the subject of Academy tastes, speaking to the dead is a concept that they have readily embraced in the past.  Both “Ghost” and “The Sixth Sense” received Best Picture nominations.  But according to Dave Karger of Entertainment Weekly, “Hereafter” reminds him more of “Babel” because of the movie’s three inter-connecting storylines.  “Babel” received nominations for Best Picture, Director, and Screenplay in 2006.  I could see Eastwood’s latest taking a similar trajectory.  I’m not expecting it to win (Eastwood has already won here twice), but it would be a nice inclusion on the shortlist.

Beyond the movie itself, I think Matt Damon can also be seriously considered in the Best Actor category.  He received his first acting nomination last year for “Invictus,” a collaboration with Eastwood, and he also has a nice Oscar sitting on his mantle for writing “Good Will Hunting.”  But with Damon also being an apparent scene-stealer in the much more Academy friendly “True Grit,” Warner Bros. may choose to campaign him harder there.

He stands a better chance in Best Supporting Actor, which has yet to be formed, than in Best Actor, which many people have narrowed down to Firth, Franco, Eisenberg, Duvall, and Bridges with Wahlberg and Gosling as strong outside shots.

There’s also a chance that Peter Morgan’s original script could make it in the field since he has been nominated before.  I don’t think much else from the movie has much of a shot, even the visual effects which make a tsunami look pretty good.

To close, I want to quote the wonderful review by Sasha Stone of Awards Daily.  While she was not a huge fan of the movie, she still states that it is one of Eastwood’s best and puts it all into perspective quite nicely.

“In his later years, he is ruminating on bigger questions, like what it means to be alive, to be killed, to be loved – to die, and to mourn … ‘Hereafter’ fits in to a triptych of films that meditate on childhood and loss: Mystic River, Changeling and now, ‘Hereafter’ … it isn’t the flavor of the month, but it is quintessentially Eastwood … at 80 years old, Eastwood remains a visionary.”

Since the idea of death is something especially pertinent to someone at the end of his life like Eastwood is, perhaps the emotional impact on the voters will prompt them to show some gratitude to a man who has been an outstanding contributor to the cinematic way.

BEST BETS FOR NOMINATIONS: Best Picture

OTHER POSSIBLE NOMINATIONS: Best Director, Best Actor, Best Original Screenplay


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Categories : 2010 - Oscar Moment, Oscar Moment

Oscar Moment: “Conviction”

1 10 2010

With the Oscars expansion to ten Best Picture nominees, it’s truly unfortunate that within the first year, the term “The Blind Side slot” became a legitimate phrase.  We now know that certain movies of less Academy-caliber filmmaking have a shot at Best Picture.  “The Blind Side” brought a mixture of inspiration and sports to the table and wound up on the Academy shortlist.

However, those two elements seem to go hand-in-hand nowadays.  Could this same slot be for a movie that is just inspirational?  What I am suggesting is that perhaps “The Blind Side slot” in 2010 is destined to go to “Conviction,” not the presumed heir apparent “Secretariat.”

It’s a legal drama, a genre that has been more traditionally up the Academy’s alley that sports.  Betty Anne Waters, played by two-time Oscar winner Hilary Swank, spends a decade earning a law degree to prove the innocence of her brother Kenneth (Sam Rockwell), who is jailed on a murder conviction.  The struggles are many, but the underdog story prevails as always.

On paper, the plot seems to good to be true – and it may turn out to be exactly that way. “Conviction” may be hitting theaters a few years too late as many will feel like they have seen this exact same story several times before.  We’ve seen audience backlash on banality before, and the Academy have echoed their sentiments.  Just look at how they scoffed at “Invictus” last year, a movie everyone thought was safe on the virtue of being about sports and Nelson Mandela.

The movie premiered at the Toronto Film Festival a few weeks ago to fair reviews. Here’s what Brad Brevet of Rope of Silicon had to say:

“‘Conviction’ is a rather simple film, but the emotional impact of the story comes through in the end after what is a rather mundane and cliched story of the innocent man in jail and the person working hard on the outside to get them out. At no point does this seem like new territory, but outside of being about ten minutes too long it’s a decent film despite its rather traditional dramatic nature.”

This might be an alarming review or an almost immediate disqualifying flaw if the same words could not be used by most critics to describe “The Blind Side.”  Nowadays, if the audience is moved and critics aren’t, the former can win out.  I think a Best Picture nomination is a possibility if the reviews can get into the 70% range on Rotten Tomatoes and the box office take exceeds $25 million.  But sorry, Tony Goldwyn, the Best Director field is too talented to make room for you.  (I haven’t seen “A Walk on the Moon,” but “The Last Kiss” was kind of lame, so he can start proving himself here.)

“Conviction” also stands a chance in the acting categories as well.  While I have nothing against Hilary Swank, there are plenty of people up in arms that she has the same amount of Oscars as Meryl Streep.  I think backlash and a strong field of Best Actress candidates will keep her out of the race.

Sam Rockwell, as the convict of “Conviction” (punny, I know), seems to be the movie’s best shot at Oscar glory.  He has been coming into his own as a star as of recent, and movies like “Moon” have made him a cult favorite.  This could be his chance to show the mainstream how talented he truly is, and I think an aggressive campaign could easily get him into the relatively unformed Best Supporting Actor race.

Rockwell seems to be the one part of “Conviction” that everyone can rally around.  According to Katey Rich at Cinemablend, “every scene in the prison interview room and especially flashbacks gives the film a jolt of electricity.”  I think we can expect some sort of representation from the movie, be it just Rockwell or the movie as a whole.

BEST BETS AT NOMINATIONS: Best Supporting Actor (Rockwell)

OTHER POSSIBLE NOMINATIONS: Best Picture, Best Actress, Best Original Screenplay


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Categories : 2010 - Oscar Moment, Oscar Moment

Oscar Moment: “Another Year”

24 09 2010

I’ll close out this week chalked full of Oscar Moments with the movie that has been a favorite since it premiered at Cannes back in May, Mike Leigh’s “Another Year.”  It received adoring review after adoring review, most speculating that it would win the prestigious Palme d’Or.  And while it didn’t take home any hardware, it emerged as the movie with the most buzz from the festival.

This month, it played at Telluride and Toronto, not really gaining any more traction but rather cementing its status as a sure-fire critical favorite.  So can all that awards season heat from May last all the way until February?

I’m not a big Mike Leigh fan, although I certainly have a lot of respect for the way he makes his movies.  For those who may not be familiar with his filmmaking methods, allow me to explain.  Here’s a critical perspective from the British Council:

Instead of writing a script, Leigh works from a basic premise, however vague it may be, that will be fleshed out through months of improvisation and rehearsal. This will involve an exploration of the actor’s own experiences and people they know, things which will then inform the characters they develop; Leigh’s work then, is devised, so much of the credit must be given to those he works with. Equally significant is the way Leigh controls story: ‘You have to be free as an actor from knowing what your character wouldn’t know.’ Yet while his performers are vital to the process, it is Leigh, who moulds and shapes the work, who provides the simple instructions which allow the narrative to develop. The material is continually reshaped until the very moment the cameras role. It is then that the work is in some way ‘fixed’. After that, there is little time for improvisation.

It’s a fascinating idea, although from my experience with Leigh’s work, I’m not sure how much it works for me.  Nevertheless, the Academy loves his writing and direction.  He has been nominated four times for Best Original Screenplay, most recently in 2008 for “Happy-Go-Lucky,” and twice for Best Director, most recently for 2004’s “Vera Drake.”  As for the overall success of his movies, only one, 1996’s “Secrets & Lies,” was nominated for Best Picture.

While Leigh’s track record with the Academy is overall pretty spotty, it’s clear to see that they do really like him, especially as of late.  I think the movie’s surest bet is in the Best Original Screenplay category, Leigh’s most common stomping grounds.  Although Owen Gleiberman of Entertainment Weekly says of the script, “This time, Leigh doesn’t bother with the pretense of a story; like a more boisterous Eric Rohmer, he simply splits the movie into four seasonal chapters over the course of a year, thereby liberating it from the clank of narrative,” so we can’t be totally assured.

However, at 67, Leigh may be the beneficiary of “let’s-give-it-to-him-before-he-leaves-us” syndrome in the Best Director category.  If he’s nominated, he’ll be a big threat because he’s been there twice before and many will feel that he finally deserves it.  Plus, according to Kris Tapley of In Contention, “to say the least, it’s Leigh’s finest hour in years.”

I’d say given the critical fanfare, “Another Year” should easily slide into the Best Picture field of ten.  The real challenge for the movie will be landing acting nominations.  Given the film’s large ensemble, will anyone other than Lesley Manville have a shot at a nod?  Here’s Gleiberman again, this time on the actress’ turn:

Lesley Manville, who plays Sheen and Broadbent’s most regular, and desperate, Saturday night dinner companion, a fragile, sozzled, enthusiastically needy secretary who has been coyly girlish, and drunk, for so long that she has no idea the loneliness she’s seeking to escape is of her own devising.

Manville has been hogging the spotlight, and when anyone talks of the ensemble, they single her out.  She’s the movie’s best bet for an acting nomination, although category fraud may play a part.  Most pundits consider her a leading actress, but Sony Pictures Classics may want to sneak her into the weaker Best Supporting Actress field.

The rest of the cast, save for prior winner Jim Broadbent, has so little name recognition that it’s going to be hard for any of them to sneak in.  Ruth Sheen could have a shot at Best Supporting Actress, as could Broadbent in the Best Actor category.  But for any of them to be legitimate contenders, I think they are going to need support from critics’ groups in December to thrust them into contention.  No one really knew who Amy Ryan was in 2007, yet thanks to being named Best Supporting Actress by association after association, she wound up with an Oscar nomination.

If anyone thinks “The King’s Speech” is going to have a hard time keeping September buzz, I think “Another Year” may have it just as hard.  How can it keep riding the wave of critical success into Oscar season?  With a release of December 29, did Sony Pictures Classics wait until the last minute so the wave can die and begin anew?

BEST BETS FOR NOMINATIONS: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress (Manville), Best Original Screenplay

OTHER POTENTIAL NOMINATIONS: Best Actor (Broadbent), Best Supporting Actress (Sheen)


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Oscar Moment: “127 Hours”

23 09 2010

Two years ago, Danny Boyle was atop the world, winning Best Director for “Slumdog Millionaire,” a movie that won eight Oscars, the second-biggest haul for any movie of the decade.  And now, he may be poised to stand there again.  His follow-up feature, “127 Hours,” is generating a whole lot of positive awards buzz.

But is it too soon?  Two years is hardly any time to be back in the awards hunt.  And usually, winners come back pretty under the radar.  Boyle is back with all pistons firing.

Is it possible for a director to be back in the hunt for their follow-up movie to the one that won them Best Director?  It has happened once in the past twenty years.  Guess who did?  James Cameron, although the nominations came 12 years apart for “Titanic” and “Avatar.”

The list of Best Director winners over the past two decades is hardly shabby (look for yourself if you don’t believe me), so we can reasonably assume that back-to-back nominations is something hard to come by.  Danny Boyle is very well-respected and certainly very loved, but he doesn’t seem like quite enough of an Academy favorite to make him a sure bet to defy the odds.  Before “Slumdog,” his movies were mostly cult favorites with niche audiences.

Then again, “127 Hours” isn’t your conventional movie.  Its success will be mainly because of Boyle’s directorial skills as the movie requires a firm hand behind the camera.  The movie tells the story of Aron Ralston (James Franco), a camper who winds up stuck in a canyon for over five days, ultimately leading to … well, you know.  It gets rough, and Boyle said he wants the movie to be a challenge to moviegoers.  The premise doesn’t seem very translatable to the big screen, and making it work is surely a directorial triumph.

The movie is also highly dependent on Franco’s performance, since he’s the only person we will get to watch for most of the movie.  Early reviews from Telluride and Toronto say he pulls it off marvelously, and a Best Actor nomination seems all but inevitable.  Franco nearly got one in 2008 for “Milk,” but he’s been doing quality work for quite some time now that a nomination seems like it’s a long time coming.

The movie also has hopes in technical categories as Boyle’s vibrant style often leads to flashy displays of editing, cinematography, and sound.  Not to mention that the score is being done by AR Rahman, the Oscar-winning composer of “Slumdog Millionaire.”   I’d sure love to hear some “Jai Ho” cranking from those canyons.

Writing might be a little bit more of a stretch as the movie may be thin on dialogue, but with Boyle penning the script with the Oscar-winning writer of “Slumdog Millionaire,” Simon Beaufouy, it could happen.

As for Best Picture, I’d say that “127 Hours” has a very good chance.  I hate to say it’s sure because some people have called it “too hard to watch.”  But others have called it “life reaffirming,” and it’s people like that who will drive the film down the path to glory.

BEST BETS FOR NOMINATIONS: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Cinematography, Best Film Editing

OTHER POSSIBLE NOMINATIONS: Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Sound Mixing, Best Sound Editing, Best Original Score


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Categories : 2010 - Oscar Moment, Oscar Moment

Oscar Moment: “The King’s Speech”

22 09 2010

Have we found a Best Picture winner with Tom Hooper’s “The King’s Speech?”

According to pundits, we have a certain nominee here.  It won the People’s Choice Award at the Toronto Film Festival, which coupled with the movie’s resounding critical reception could make it quite a force for Hollywood’s top prize.  If it can enter mainstream consciousness, then it’s going to be pretty hard to beat.

I talked about how “Never Let Me Go” had the perfect Oscar formula three weeks ago, but things have changed now and this has the new best road to success.  The Academy has largely begun to ally itself with British tastes, and all signs point to this being the choice movie from our English allies.

“The King’s Speech” follows King George VI (Colin Firth) as he leads his country into World War II.  The royal family is always popular with voters; the past 15 years have seen Best Picture nominees “The Queen” and “Elizabeth,” and winner “Shakespeare in Love” with a cameo by Judi Dench as Queen Elizabeth I.

But there’s more to the movie than just the royal blood line.  There’s also an underdog story as George has no confidence in his ability to lead, mainly because of his stuttering and stammering.  The “speech” in the title does not refer to a long oration but rather George’s inability to be eloquent.  He hires an Australian speech therapist (Geoffrey Rush) to help him with his issue, which becomes more and more pressing as Hitler becomes a bigger threat to the country by the minute.  According to a blurb from Cinematical, the movie is “not too heavy, it’s got its funny/kooky moments, and it ends on an inspirational note.”

After the win at Toronto, it’s riding a sort of front-runner status (although “The Social Network” managed to steal some thunder after many rave reviews popped up).  The People’s Choice Award certainly correlates more to the Oscars than the Venetian Golden Lion.  They have picked three Best Picture winners – “Slumdog Millionaire,” “American Beauty,” and “Chariots of Fire” – and plenty more nominees including “Precious,” “Life is Beautiful,” and “Shine.”  The award hasn’t been entirely effective in predicting Academy tastes, but it’s been very close in recent years.  “The King’s Speech” has to be considered a big contender, though, by virtue of winning.

On a different note, Kris Tapley of In Contention offered some wise words as to why being the movie on top at the moment may not be so good:

After coming out strong with the of-the-moment ‘Up in the Air’ last season, taking the same Telluride-Toronto crowd-pleasing path, their film slowly boiled down to an also ran and even came up short in the one category it seemed assured going into the Academy Awards … It’s easy to peak early in an Oscar season.  It takes tactical endurance to really come out on the other side with something to show for yourself and ‘The King’s Speech’ is burning fuel fast and early.

So there’s a chance that “The King’s Speech” has had its moment in the sun.  But there’s certainly nothing wrong with being at the top of the list for the moment, and many have speculated that Best Picture may come down to “old school Academy play versus a Gen-Y instant classic.”  I’d say given the fact that it’s a light drama with an acceptable amount of bait, it’s a pretty good bet for Best Picture and thus Best Director.

(No matter what happens, it’s a British period piece, and that guarantees at least Best Costume Design and Best Production Design at the very least.)

The actors are also going to be a big selling point for the movie.  Firth is coming straight off his first Oscar nomination last year for “A Single Man,” and people are beginning to take him very seriously as an actor.  As I said last year, “he is a likable actor, never demanding much attention, and making missteps in only the quietest of fashions.  Firth is the kind of actor the Academy would want to give the golden statue to, and he’s at a prime point in his career to get it.

Geoffrey Rush could easily find himself in the Best Supporting Actor race.  With no clear front-runner, he could easily charge to the front despite having won before back in 1996.  The fact that he’s already been awarded an Oscar should only be a factor when choosing the winner; the effect should be minimal on his nomination.  And Helena Bonham Carter, as George’s wife, should be able to squeeze out a nomination as well.  While she’s taken on some kooky roles since her last nomination in 1997 for “The Wings of the Dove,” a return to Academy fare could find her back in their favor once more.

It’s easy to call “The King’s Speech” a leader now as it rides high on the buzz of film festival success.  But let’s not forget that it has to ride out a full-scale release and the precursor season before it can climb the stage at the Kodak Theater in February.

BEST BETS FOR NOMINATIONS: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Original Screenplay, Best Costume Design, Best Production Design

OTHER POSSIBLE NOMINATIONS: Best Cinematography, Best Film Editing


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Categories : 2010 - Oscar Moment, Oscar Moment

Oscar Moment: “Black Swan”

20 09 2010

The Toronto Film Festival closed yesterday, and Oscars season 2010 has kicked off now as a result.  To commemorate this commencement, I am dedicating the next five days solely to theorizing about the five major contenders emerging from the festivals held in Venice, Toronto, and Telluride.

While I could have (and probably should have) begun with the big winners, “Somewhere” from Venice and “The King’s Speech” from Toronto, I’m going to start by talking about the movie that appeals to me the most, “Black Swan.”  I’m a huge fan of director Darren Aronofsky, and the cast and plot are both incredible.

The whole premise of a movie centered around the price of art is something that connects personally with me as I dedicate most of my free time currently to theater and music.  “Black Swan” stars Natalie Portman as an ambitious New York ballerina, compelled to keep going by the hopes that her director (Vincent Cassel) will feature her more.  But along comes a strong and beautiful rival (Mila Kunis) who wins him over with her talent and starts shifting the spotlight her way.  Eventually the envy and rage begins to consume Portman’s Lily, and her mental sanity begins to collapse.

The movie’s trailer is absolutely terrifying, but it drew me in with this incredible force.  Yes, it is scary, but it is also elegant and gorgeous.  The cinematography, the choreography, the score, the cast – it’s a mad rush of beauty emerging from the screen under the magnificent direction of Aronofsky.

Opinion on the movie emerging from the festival is incredibly polarized, with the prevailing side being those in favor.  Here’s Peter DeBruge of Variety weighing in:

“A wicked, sexy and ultimately devastating study of a young dancer’s all-consuming ambition, ‘Black Swan’ serves as a fascinating complement to Darren Arononfsky’s ‘The Wrestler,’ trading the grungy world of a broken-down fighter for the more upscale but no less brutal sphere of professional ballet.”

Kirk Honeycutt of The Hollywood Reporter, while seeing it through a somewhat different light, still gives it praise:

“The movie is so damn out-there in every way that you can’t help admiring Aronofsky for daring to be so very, very absurd. ‘Swan’ is an instant guilty pleasure, a gorgeously shot, visually complex film whose badness is what’s so good about it.”

On the slightly less professional side, blogger Kris Tapley of In Contention had this to say about the movie and its chances:

“The film is the perfect marriage of Aronofsky’s past work, containing all of the paranoia of ‘Pi,’ the identity concerns of ‘Requiem for a Dream,’ the sense of inevitability apparent in ‘The Fountain,’ and the professional obsession of ‘The Wrestler.’ Portman gives her best performance to date and could well find her way to an Oscar nomination, while Matthew Libatique’s splendid photography also deserves recognition. It may play too dark to AMPAS types, but I imagine many members will at the very least grasp a powerful theme that relates very much to filmmakers as it does as to painters, musicians and, well, ballerinas.”

It’s not just a hit with the critic; audiences are fawning over this rabidly.  At the Venice festival premiere, it received a five-minute standing ovation, and it remained an incredibly buzzed piece the entire festival.  And according to a Los Angeles Times report on the screening in Toronto, “During the screening, moments of unexpected scares sent ripples of gasps and nervous laughter through the crowd. Festival screenings can feel a little cold, and thus less communal, than the commercial variety. That wasn’t a problem here.”

I think the movie has the goods to be a Best Picture candidate – the subject matter may just be a little too intense for them.  Mental psychodrama, as one person describe the movie, just isn’t up their alley.  But if the public gets behind it and critical response is still great, it could have a chance.

If and only if it lands a Best Picture nomination, Aronofsky could net his first Best Director nomination.  Back in 2008 when there were only five Best Picture nominees, his name was constantly thrown around as a replacement for Ron Howard in the directorial race.  He’s very respected and honoring him for “Black Swan” makes more sense that nominating him for “The Wrestler” as this is the kind of movie that he is most proficient at making.  Perhaps a screenplay nomination will also follow, but I’d say that’s probably the least likely of the bunch.

But the movie’s support will most likely be expressed in the acting categories, where it has four strong contenders in Natalie Portman, Vincent Cassel, Mila Kunis, and Barbara Hershey.

Portman is the film’s shining star.  She’s in every scene and apparently has total command of the screen, challenging her emotional and physical limits constantly.  The Academy has noted her once before for her complex and rough role as Alice in “Closer” back in 2004, but her acting has matured much since then.  This is a very demanding performance for Portman in a very demanding movie.  Even those who oppose the movie will still have good things to say about her work.

At 30, her youth is an asset as she is now old enough to not be written off as “too young.”  In fact, since 1997, only two actresses older than 35 have won Best Actress, both of which came in the past four years.  So a win for Portman keeps the trend going.  She faces stiff competition this year; many are calling it the strongest leading actress field in years.  Her stiffest competition may come from Annette Bening, who at 52 won raves for “The Kids Are All Right” over the summer.  With three nominations to her name, Bening will be a force to reckon with.  Awards Daily proposed today that the race may be down to the two of them:

Portman’s performance is said to be her best yet – brilliant, harsh, challenging.  If only she was also playing a prostitute or a drug addict – she’d been the winner.  But, from what I gather, her character is not likable.  Likability, or at least great sympathy is key to a win.  Can she make it on sheer ability?  Of course.  Liking her character, really really liking her character helps a wee bit more.  I haven’t yet seen the film so I can’t say for sure.

Portman has a sex scene.  I don’t think this is necessarily a turn-off.  Best Actress winners often have on screen nudity or sex scenes — The Reader, Monster’s Ball, etc.  But usually it’s with a man.  Still, since when have men objected to sex between women?  Bening is probably way ahead in terms of likability.    She too has a sex scene to contend with.

This time last year, I boiled the race down to Carey Mulligan vs. Meryl Streep, the film festival breakout and up-and-comer pitted against the awards mainstay.  While Bening is know Meryl Streep and Portman is hardly unknown, the race is very similar.  Of course last year, Sandra Bullock came out of nowhere to take it all.  I think simplifying a race down to two people now is misguided, although I will say that they are the two strongest candidates at the moment.  A nomination of Portman is almost certain; a snub would mean that the Academy really needs to grow up and learn how to handle tough subject matter.

The other three actors are all wild cards.  Cassel could do well in awards season; his performance was voted second-best in the supporting category from INDIEwire’s informal critical polling.  He’s pretty unknown stateside, which could propel him higher or doom him.  Kunis also has potential, but I get the feeling that she will be seen more as an object of lust than an actress.  Her past movie choices won’t do her much good either.

Outside of Portman, the best shot “Black Swan” may have at another nomination would be through Barbara Hershey, who plays Lily’s aggressive mother, a former ballerina herself.  At 62, the movie could prove to be a great swan song for her (pun fully intended).  Hershey hasn’t been in much since her 1996 Best Supporting Actress nomination, practically nothing in the past decade.  But a welcome return to grace the screen with her presence could land her another nomination.

It’s important for “Black Swan” to keep the massive buzz and allure it gained over the past few weeks in check so that upon its release in December, the can of worms will be opened anew.  But until then we wait.  And hope the movie is as good as we anticipate.

BEST BETS FOR NOMINATIONS: Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress (Hershey), Best Cinematography, Best Original Score

OTHER POSSIBLE NOMINATIONS: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress (Kunis), Best Film Editing


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Categories : 2010 - Oscar Moment, Oscar Moment

Oscar Moment: Pre-Festival Predictions!

1 09 2010

Well, folks, I’ve given you 14 Oscar Moments so far that have examined and analyzed the potential awards contenders of 2010.  Today begins a new chapter of the Oscar hunt with the beginning of the Venice Film Festival.  Next week, the Toronto Film Festival will kick off, and soon there will be various festivals in New York, Telluride, and London.

No more idle chatter. This is real.  It’s the time of the year when we separate the weaklings from the true players.  And so I begin before the madness with a few opinions of my own, a set of predictions that I have formed from merely the raw slate as is.  I’ll probably look back at this list and laugh; last year, I said “It’s Complicated” would be nominated.

So, on with the show!  (I’m skipping the screenplays for the next set of predictions.)

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Keira Knightley, “Never Let Me Go”
  2. Melissa Leo, “The Fighter”
  3. Barbara Hershey, “Black Swan”
  4. Hailee Steinfeld, “True Grit”
  5. Marion Cotillard, “Inception”

This is a category that likes proven young talent, so I think Knightley makes a good first pick for a winner.  Melissa Leo is clearly well-liked enough by the Academy to score a nomination for a no-name movie like “Frozen River,” so I think pretty mainstream Oscar bait like “The Fighter” bodes well for her chances.  I threw Hershey in the mix because I feel like the Academy will love “Black Swan,” and Best Supporting Actress likes veterans as well.  I’ve never even heard of Steinfeld, but she’s young, and this is the category that gave Tatum O’Neal and Anna Paquin the big prize in their teen years.  And just for fun, I threw in Cotillard as a wild-card.  She’s already won an Oscar, and I get the feeling the Oscars want to nominate her again.

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
  2. Sam Rockwell, “Conviction”
  3. Andrew Garfield, “The Social Network”
  4. Vincent Cassel, “Black Swan”
  5. Mark Ruffalo, “The Kids Are All Right”

An entire slate of first-time nominees?  Dang … I honestly have no idea how this category is going to play out; I just picked from some movies that I thought would be big.  Four of the five are from Best Picture nominees (riskiest bet being Cassel), and I threw in Sam Rockwell because his performance looks REALLY baity.

Best Actress

  1. Annette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right”
  2. Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
  3. Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone”
  4. Michelle Williams, “Blue Valentine”
  5. Julianne Moore, “The Kids Are All Right”

I’m sensing Bening vs. Portman with maybe a little bit of Jennifer Lawrence to make things interesting.  It’s time for Bening to get one, if not for “The Kids Are All Right” then at least as recognition of how amazing she was in “American Beauty.”  Then again, Natalie Portman is going way out of her good-girl comfort zone, even farther than “Closer,” for “Black Swan.”  She’s definitely a force to be reckoned with this year.  Lawrence is the up-and-comer of the season, which always adds some fun.  Williams, a previous Oscar nominee, is a good bet based on how emotionally wrenching her role is.  And Julianne Moore needs to show up somewhere this year; it appears they are campaigning her for lead where she belongs.  Honestly, they should move Annette Bening to supporting.

Best Actor

  1. Mark Wahlberg, “The Fighter”
  2. Jesse Eisenberg, “The Social Network”
  3. James Franco, “127 Hours”
  4. Robert Duvall, “Get Low”
  5. Ryan Gosling, “Blue Valentine”

It feels like a Wahlberg kind of year.  He’s been nominated before, but this is a role that is born for him to play.  More on that later in the inevitable Oscar Moment, though.  Everyone else has better days ahead, or, in the case of Robert Duvall, already has an Oscar.

Best Director

  1. David Fincher, “The Social Network”
  2. Mike Leigh, “Another Year”
  3. Christopher Nolan, “Inception”
  4. David O. Russell, “The Fighter”
  5. Darren Aronofsky, “Black Swan”

Fincher rides “The Social Network” train to victory.  Mike Leigh gives him a good run for his money because the Academy loves him way too much.  Christopher Nolan finally gets a much deserved Best Director nomination.  David O. Russell gets in because his movie is loved.  And Darren Aronofsky gets in for the same reason – except he has a rabid fan base that will try to push him to victory.

Best Picture

  1. The Social Network
  2. The Fighter
  3. Toy Story 3
  4. Another Year
  5. Black Swan
  6. Inception
  7. Never Let Me Go
  8. The Kids Are All Right
  9. Blue Valentine
  10. 127 Hours

I’ve read one review of “The Social Network,” but that alone has convinced me that the movie will win Best Picture.  If it’s as good as that review claims, it will be one of the most zeitgeist-tapping movies EVER.  After “The Hurt Locker” got in touch with the American psyche in Iraq last year and won Best Picture, the prize will move back home for “The Social Network.”

I’m just picking up really good vibes from “The Fighter,” mainly because it’s the “little movie that could” story that propelled “Slumdog Millionaire” to victory in 2008.

“Toy Story 3” could actually win.  No joke.  But enough people have to raise the question of “Who cares if it’s animated, it’s the best movie of the year?” to overcome the hurdles.

“Another Year” becomes the critical darling of 2010, likely a critics’ circle favorite, and thus impossible to ignore.

I’ll admit that I caught a peek at some early “Black Swan” reviews from Venice and this is the real deal.  It’s in.

“Inception” plays into the mix, although outside the old-fashioned five, because it’s the big summer hit and for “The Dark Knight” reparations.  Such a combination has to equal a Best Picture nomination.

“Never Let Me Go” is the obligatory literary adaptation bait.

“The Kids Are All Right” will get in because of its great critical standing.  It’s going to have a hard time making a serious run, though, because of the mediocre box office receipts.

“Blue Valentine” is going to be so hard-hitting and gruelingly real that I think the Academy can’t ignore it.

And finally, “127 Hours” gets in just because the Academy loves Danny Boyle and can’t think of anything else to put in.  Or wait, maybe that’s me who can’t think of anything else to put in!

What are your thoughts?  Who did I leave off?  Where am I dead on?


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Categories : 2010 - Oscar Moment, Oscar Moment

Oscar Moment: “The American”

24 08 2010

I really have no idea what to say about “The American,” but I know there has to be something to say.

Looking at the poster, we see a giant George Clooney.  That’s what Focus Features wants you to see because the rest of the poster (and the trailers as well) give you zero clue what the movie is supposed to be about.  He’s an assassin, as we might deduce from the gun, but no peeking at plot has given me any insight into the events of the movie.  Which may be just what Focus wants.  Hey, I’m not complaining about a movie shrouded in mystery.

In the past five years, Clooney has become a dominant force in Oscar season.  With three nominations for acting under his belt since 2005 (four if you count his Best Director nomination); the only people to match that total in the same amount of time are Philip Seymour Hoffman, Cate Blanchett, Penelope Cruz, and the legendary Meryl Streep.  So we have to assume that anything Clooney stars in nowadays is an Oscar contender – although look at the mistake we made with “The Men Who Stare At Goats.”  If the Best Actor field is particularly weak this year, the Academy could easily sneak in a familiar face like Clooney.

The cast may become an issue in awards season.  The problem isn’t that the movie stars George Clooney; it’s that the movie stars George Clooney and no one else you’ve ever heard of before.  “The American” is being sold almost entirely on Clooney, a little bit on Corbijn for those whose moviegoing tastes are far enough off the beaten path to recognize his name.  So if Clooney isn’t at the top of his game, the whole movie’s chances may be derailed.

This is just Anton Corbijn’s second film, but he’s been behind the camera for quite a while, making music videos for groups as well known as Nirvana and U2.  Prior to that, he spent time behind a different lens doing music photography.  He still keeps up his first profession, albeit as a hobby, chronicling the production of “The American.”  Corbijn kept up a photo blog during production, posting some really interesting shots.  In the very near future, he will release them in a picture book called “Inside The American.”

His first feature, “Control,” about the lead singer of the band Joy Division, premiered at Cannes in 2007 to great reviews.  It opened theatrically later that year to very respectable critical marks, a 78 on Metacritic and an 87% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes.  Across the pond in Britain, it won Best Film and Best Director among others at their equivalent of the Indie Spirit Awards, the British Independent Film Awards.

Despite these laurels, “Control” didn’t exactly ignite here, failing to earn a release over 30 theaters or a revenue over $1 million.  Not that money really matters that much, especially in the context of a directorial debut.  Last year’s Oscar winner for Best Director, Kathryn Bigelow, made only $3 million with her first film, “Near Dark,” in 1987.

The bar has been set high, at least in terms of quality, for Corbijn’s follow-up.  First films usually don’t receive much notice at the Oscars, the rare exception coming, ironically, for the George Clooney vehicle “Michael Clayton,” which received nominations for Best Picture and Best Director for Tony Gilroy.  Second films, however, have been able to gain traction.  Let’s look at last year’s Best Director nominees and their second films.

  • Winner Kathryn Bigelow made her second film, “Near Dark,” in 1987.  A vampire movie can become a cult favorite, but it’s certainly very hard to take seriously as an Oscar movie.
  • James Cameron made his second film, “The Terminator,” in 1984.  Wildly under-appreciated at the time, it’s now a classic, enshrined in the National Film Registry.
  • Quentin Tarantino made his second film, “Pulp Fiction,” in 1994.  It is considered by some to be a watershed movie in the history of independent film and got Tarantino an Oscar nomination for his directorial work.  The movie also won Best Original Screenplay and was nominated for Best Picture.
  • Jason Reitman made his second film, “Juno,” in 2007.  The movie was nominated for Best Picture, and Reitman was a surprise announcement for a Best Director nomination.
  • Lee Daniels made his second film, “Precious,” in 2009.  The movie was nominated for Best Picture, and Daniels was nominated for Best Director.

See, it does happen!  Second films have found great success, both for the movie and for the director.  The question is whether “The American” will trod the glorious path in 2010 or march its way into (potentially momentary) obscurity.  There has yet to be a review of the movie, so the path truly is unknown.

BEST BETS FOR NOMINATIONS: Best Actor (George Clooney)

OTHER POSSIBLE NOMINATIONS: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Cinematography


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Categories : 2010 - Oscar Moment, Oscar Moment

Oscar Moment: “The Town”

18 08 2010

Since posting my September preview, comments have poured in speculating about Ben Affleck’s latest directorial venture, “The Town.”  Most people have compared it to his first film, “Gone Baby Gone.”  But is that a good thing?

“Gone Baby Gone” has a 94% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes, but the only traction it gained during awards season was for Amy Ryan’s powerful supporting performance.  There are a few assorted nods to Ben Affleck’s skill on his first film, but nothing distinguishing him in a category with every other movie.  It’s worth noting that while Ryan was a critics’ association favorite, she didn’t win the Globe, SAG, or Oscar.

So are we just looking at one impressive performance from “The Town” to keep it in contention?  It has a nice cast including Golden Globe winner Jon Hamm, Golden Globe nominee Rebecca Hall, Oscar nominees Jeremy Renner and Pete Postlethwhaite, Oscar winner Chris Cooper, and Affleck himself (oh, and Blake Lively for looks).

I’d say if there were a potentially nomination-worthy performance from the bunch, it would probably be from either Hamm for crossing over from the small screen well or Renner for another good work.  If the Academy really loves him and wants to make him a marquee name, another nomination would surely help.  Nominations in consecutive years aren’t uncommon and really telling of Academy tastes.  Over the past decade, the only people to have pulled it off are Penelope Cruz, Meryl Streep, Cate Blanchett, Judi Dench, Renee Zellweger, Nicole Kidman, Russell Crowe, Philip Seymour Hoffman, and Johnny Depp.  Only the latter doesn’t have a nice golden statue resting on their mantle.

But I think the biggest question about “The Town” is the one no one can answer as of yet because no one has seen it.  Is it a bona fide Best Picture contender?

Really, the trailer is a muddled mess and just watching it did not sell me on this being one of the ten best movies of the year.  We are resting on the laurels of the people involved to call it an awards prospect.  Would I be writing this if the movie were directed by Antoine Fuqua and starred Matthew Morrison from “Glee?”

Here are my reservations about calling this a contender for the big prize.  We’ve seen studios roll out Oscar hopefuls in September, seeing if they gain enough footing in the awards race.  They reserve the big guns for November and December, and any movie that disappoints in those release slots dooms the studio.  So these mixed-bag candidates often find a home in early fall.  Usually, the movies are either action or drama with the starpower on (and perhaps off) the screen to generate buzz provided that the movie is any good.

These movies generally don’t fare well.  Here are those movies, listed for your convenience by year:

2009

  • Steven Soderbergh’s “The Informant” with Matt Damon received fairly warm reviews.  It only musters two Golden Globe nominations. (released by Warner Bros.)

2008

  • Ridley Scott’s “Body of Lies” starring Oscar winner Russell Crowe and nominee Leonardo DiCaprio receives middling reviews, clearly disappointing the high expectations associated with such names. (released by Warner Bros.)
  • “Flash of Genius” starring Greg Kinnear makes virtually no money, receives average reviews, and can’t even get a campaign push. (released by Universal)
  • Spike Lee’s “Miracle at St. Anna” receives terrible reviews and no awards come its way.  Maybe it was the 160 minute runtime… (released by Touchstone)

2007

  • “American Gangster,” released at the very beginning of November, has huge expectations with Ridley Scott as director and Oscar winners Denzel Washington and Russell Crowe pitted against each other.  Box office was great, reviews were pretty good, but the buzz just didn’t sustain.  Despite receiving nominations for Best Picture and Best Actor and the Golden Globes, the only attention it received after that was for Ruby Dee, who won the SAG and was nominated for an Oscar. (released by Universal)
  • “Rendition,” an ensemble drama about the Middle East starring Oscar winners Meryl Streep, Alan Arkin, and Reese Witherspoon as well as nominee Jake Gylenhaal, can’t even clear $10 million at the box office.  And with mixed reviews, that kind of cash doesn’t fly. (released by New Line)
  • “We Own the Night” with Mark Wahlberg and Oscar nominee Joaquin Phoenix doesn’t ignite the box office or excite the critics.  It did not have an awards season. (released by Sony)
  • “The Kingdom,” a thriller with Jamie Foxx and Jennifer Garner set in Saudi Arabia, didn’t perform well with either critics or audiences.  No awards followed.  (released by Universal)
  • “3:10 to Yuma,” a remake of a popular 1950s Western with Oscar winner Russell Crowe and Christian Bale, does very well with critics and average with audiences.  It received a surprise Best Ensemble nod from the SAG and was discussed as a potential surprise Best Picture nominee.  Ultimately, it only wound up with two technical nominations. (released by Lionsgate)

In tone, “The Town” appears to resemble “Body of Lies,” “The Kingdom,” and “American Gangster” more than any others listed above.  Only the latter of those had any success in awards season.  Affleck’s latest and “The American,” George Clooney’s latest that I’ll discuss in next week’s column, are the two September wild cards.

“The Departed,” a cop drama like “The Town,” won Best Picture in 2006, and Warner Bros. wants to remind us of that.  With a name like Martin Scorsese behind the movie, though, all buzz is instantly legitimate.  There is no speculation like there is for a Ben Affleck movie.

So, folks, are we looking at a fall flop?  Or a contender?

BEST BETS FOR NOMINATIONS: Best Supporting Actor (Jeremy Renner)

OTHER POSSIBLE NOMINATIONS: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (Jon Hamm), Best Adapted Screenplay


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Categories : 2010 - Oscar Moment, Oscar Moment

Oscar Moment: “Secretariat”

21 07 2010

“Secretariat” – it looks like a mix between Best Picture nominees “Seabiscuit” and “The Blind Side.”  Translation: someone kill me NOW!

I have now begun to hold the inspirational sports movie genre in the same regard as the romantic comedy genre, which is to say not highly.  They are so incredibly formulaic that they only serve to inspire groans now.  There’s really no way to spice up the whole “underdog comes out of nowhere and becomes a champion” storyline.  And if “Secretariat” is anything like its trailer, we are in for a story so improbable we can see the ending a mile away.  The thing about movies based on highly publicized true stories is that they don’t really have the chance to build any real suspense.

Yet I must say, the movie has several good horses in the gate for an Oscar run.  First and foremost is Diane Lane, playing the tenacious sports-loving housewife role that won Sandra Bullock an Oscar last year.  The Academy may not fall head over heels for a one-year-old rerun, but they do love Lane.  She has a prior nomination (for 2002’s “Unfaithful”), and Bullock did not have any sort of history with the Academy.  I don’t think the “she deserves it” factor will be very high with only one nomination, yet they could surprise us.

There’s also John Malkovich, the three-time nominee who is overdue for a statue.  He’s been known for his more powerful characters, and it would be strange to see them reward him for a fairly docile performance as Secretariat’s trainer.  But the ways of the Academy are strange, and if there’s a weak field, Malkovich could always squeeze in for Best Supporting Actor.  The category tends to be pretty sentimental; past years have seen winners like Morgan Freeman and Alan Arkin.

And then there’s the movie itself, which probably wouldn’t have a great chance without ten nominees in the Best Picture category.  Yet out of nowhere, the box office hit and mildly well-reviewed “The Blind Side” stunned on nomination day with a nomination.  That movie overcame its mediocrity by playing well with middle America, who doesn’t want to “get” the pompous artsy fare, and becoming a true word-of-mouth phenomenon.  It did help balance out a field of nominees that included “A Serious Man,” “Precious,” “An Education,” and “The Hurt Locker,” to make the list seem to represent the whole of 2009’s cinematic landscape.  So if “Secretariat” manages to garner good reviews and play well all over America, we can’t count it out.  (And hey, “Seabiscuit” did it with five nominees back in 2003 with half the money, although it did have slightly better reviews and a weak field.)

Then again, after “Seabiscuit,” we saw “Dreamer” with Kurt Russell and Dakota Fanning, another horse racing movie which bombed financially and critically.  So there is by no means a steady pattern in Academy taste for sports or horse racing movies.  Let’s just hope they don’t start a trend this year.

BEST BETS FOR NOMINATIONS: Best Actress (Diane Lane)

OTHER POTENTIAL NOMINATIONS: Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor (John Malkovich)


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Oscar Moment: “Shutter Island”

8 06 2010

Martin Scorsese’s “Shutter Island” hits stores today.  While in theaters, the movie garnered pretty good reviews and made a nice sum at the box office on some pretty nice legs.  But could it get any serious Oscar nominations like Best Picture even though it was released in February?

It’s 67% on Rotten Tomatoes isn’t exactly stellar and would definitely put it in the longshot category with a field of five nominees.  But we live in a new era of Best Picture, and there are ten nominees now.  67% was good enough to make the cut last year, as “The Blind Side” showed us.  61% was even good enough in 2008 when “The Reader” slipped into a field of five.  And although scores are a little less accurate for older movies, “Out of Africa” won Best Picture in 1985 and now has a 61% fresh rating.

So based on its critical standing, a nomination is not completely out of the question.  But what about looking at “Shutter Island” financially?  It’s $127 million take is impressive for a February release, and it will surely help to keep the movie ingrained somewhere in the back of the minds of voters.  More importantly, the money helps to establish it as a fan favorite as well.  Many suspected that the move to 10 Best Picture nominees was to include more populist and mainstream movies, a suspicion that was vindicated when half of the nominees earned over $100 million dollars.  The money is probably what got “The Blind Side” into the race, a movie that had been little more than a blip on the radar during the season.

Although “Shutter Island” is much more Academy-friendly than “The Blind Side,” it did not meet the expectations many people have of a movie that bears the name of Martin Scorsese.  According to Rotten Tomatoes, it is his lowest-rated movie since “Boxcar Bertha” nearly 4o years ago (in the pre-“Taxi Driver” era).  This is where the box office performance and good reception by the fans will help.  It did a good job of keeping an audience, staying in the top 10 for a tremendous seven weeks and having an average drop of about 40% per weekend.

Speaking of Scorsese, it will be interesting to see how the Academy treats him now that they have finally given him the long overdue trophy.  They used to love nominating him but never awarding him.  Now, it’s a new chapter for Scorsese and the Oscars with new rules.  After giving Clint Eastwood his due for “Million Dollar Baby,” the Academy has been flaky on the director ever since.  He was nominated for Best Director in 2006 for “Letters from Iwo Jima” but found no love for “Gran Torino” and little for “Changeling” and “Invictus” in the years afterwards.  So will Scorsese still be lauded for the follow-up to his Oscar-winning work like Eastwood was, or will the Academy fast-forward to the snubbing stage?

I’m also wondering if Leonardo DiCaprio has a chance at Best Actor.  He has three nominations dating back to 1993 and no wins to show for them.  He is one of the finest actors of our generation, and his collaborations with Scorsese have raised his acting to great heights.  DiCaprio has received one nomination for a Scorsese movie to date, “The Aviator” in 2004, and maybe it’s time to make it two.

I can see “Shutter Island” being the “Inglourious Basterds” of 2010.  Both have respected pedigrees, made respectable sums, and did respectably with critics (while “Basterds” scored an 88% on Rotten Tomatoes, initial reception at Cannes was not quite so favorable).  Few people thought Tarantino’s film would have much success in awards season, but it was just a movie that everyone really liked and could agree on.  Its inclusion didn’t offend many people because it wasn’t a very polarizing choice.  “Shutter Island” could easily follow in its footsteps.


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Categories : 2010 - Oscar Moment, Oscar Moment

Oscar Moment: “Get Low”

11 05 2010

Out to top R. Kelly’s “Trapped in the Closet,” Robert Duvall stars in the film adaptation of Lil’ Jon’s hit song “Get Low.”

Just kidding.

It’s about the opposite.  “Get Low” could wind up being one of the biggest bait movies of the Oscar season, particularly for leading man Robert Duvall.  It was a hit at last year’s Toronto Film Festival and instantly thrusted Duvall into the Oscar conversation.  But when it was bought by Sony Pictures Classics following the festival, they decided to move it to the end of July 2010.  Thus, Duvall and “Get Low” are now in the 2010 awards talk.

Here’s my question: does the man need Oscar bait?  He’s already won Best Actor!  Sure, it was over 25 years ago (1983 for “Tender Mercies” to be exact), but that’s still a trophy on the mantle at Duvall Manor.

People make this argument for Meryl Streep year after year.  “She won so long ago,” they say.  “They don’t need to hide their affection; just give her another Oscar!”

The difference between the two is as follows.  Since Robert Duvall won the Oscar, he has received two other nominations (in consecutive years, as a matter of fact).  Since Meryl Streep won her last Oscar, she has been nominated eleven times!  Eleven!

Let’s take a look at some other revered actors who took home their first Oscar several decades ago and the results when they are in the game again.

  • Ellen Burstyn won Best Actress in 1974 for “Alice Doesn’t Live Here Anymore.”  Since then, she has been nominated three times, most recently in 2000 for “Requiem for a Dream.”  She has not won since.
  • Sissy Spacek won Best Actress in 1980 for “Coal Miner’s Daughter.”  Since then, she has been nominated four times, most recently in 2001 for “In the Bedroom.”  She has not won since.
  • Diane Keaton won Best Actress in 1976 for “Annie Hall.”  Since then, she has been nominated three times, most recently in 2003 for “Something’s Gotta Give.”  She has not won since.
  • Ben Kingsley won Best Actor in 1982 for “Gandhi.”  Since then, he has been nominated three times, most recently in 2003 for “House of Sand and Fog.”  He has not won since.
  • William Hurt won Best Actor in 1985 for “Kiss of the Spider Woman.”  Since then, he has been nominated three times, most recently in 2005 for “A History of Violence.”  He has not won since.
  • Julie Christie won Best Actor in 1965 for “Darling.”  Since then, she has been nominated three times, most recently in 2007 for “Away from Her.”  She has not won since.

See a pattern?

(NOTE: I excluded one outlier from the list: Jack Nicholson, who has received 12 nominations in his illustrious career.  His first win came on his fifth nomination in 1975 for Best Actor for “One Flew Over The Cuckoo’s Nest.”  Two nominations later, he won again in 1983 for Best Supporting Actor for “Terms of Endearment.”  Another four nominations later, he won his third statue in 1997 for Best Actor for “As Good As It Gets.”  He was nominated for Best Actor again in 2002 for “About Schmidt” but lost to Adrien Brody.)

But if you know anything about the Oscars beyond the statistics I gave you, another trend might have popped out at you.  In case you didn’t pick up on it, this might guide you.

  • When Ellen Burstyn was last nominated, she lost to Julia Roberts for “Erin Brockovich.”  Roberts was 33, and this nomination was her third.
  • When Sissy Spacek was last nominated, she lost to Halle Berry for “Monster’s Ball.”  Berry was 35, and this nomination was her first.
  • When Jack Nicholson was last nominated, he lost to Adrien Brody for “The Pianist.”  Brody was 29, and this nomination was his first.
  • When Diane Keaton was last nominated, she lost to Charlize Theron for “Monster.”  Theron was 28, and this nomination was her first.
  • When Ben Kingsley was last nominated, he lost to Sean Penn for “Mystic River.”  Penn was 43, and this nomination was his fourth.
  • When William Hurt was last nominated, he lost to George Clooney for “Syriana.”  Clooney was 43, and this nomination was his first.
  • When Julie Christie was last nominated, she lost to Marion Cotillard for “La Vie en Rose.”  Cotillard was 32, and this nomination was her first.

As I hope you now see, these veterans usually lose to younger actors with few nominations.  So does Duvall have history against him?

The role seems like a character he can really dig into.  In “Get Low,” he plays a hermit who plans his own funeral – which he plans to attend.  Alive.  He wants to hear what people think of him, but as events unfold, he ends up divulging why he’s been away in the woods so long.

The movie also features performances by Oscar winner Sissy Spacek and nominee Bill Murray.  Both could easily be in contention, but Murray seems to have the more substantial part.  They, along with Duvall, are definitely worth keeping an eye on this season.

BEST BETS FOR NOMINATIONS: Best Actor (Robert Duvall), Best Supporting Actor (Bill Murray)

OTHER POSSIBLE NOMINATIONS: Best Picture, Best Original Screenplay, Best Score


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Categories : 2010 - Oscar Moment, Oscar Moment

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