The Social Network | Marshall and the Movies

Random Factoid #556

4 02 2011

How did Mark Zuckerberg turn what looked like a PR nightmare 5 months ago into what’s now a PR bonanza? “The Social Network” was supposed to make him look like an anti-social a-hole to the moviegoing public has made him a celebrity and household name, something surprising given the site’s country-sized population. There’s no way that he would have been named TIME Magazine’s Person of the Year had it not been for the movie.

Danielle Berin offers up this theory:

“Oh what a difference an awards season makes. In the five months since opening, the film has lapped up box office success and critical acclaim, and, along the way, Zuckerberg’s image has undergone elaborate transformation. The once Machiavellian Harvard student has become the philanthropic humanitarian…. What began as a negative spin on Zuckerberg and his haughty conquer-the-world attitude had transformed into the most celebratory and useful publicity both Zuckerberg and his company have seen since Facebook’s founding. And to think, all it took was a little Oscar buzz. OK, a lot of Oscar buzz. The past few months of award-winning and Oscar campaigning have done more than cement the genius of the film’s cast and creators. Because of the spotlight cast on Zuckerberg, the young entrepreneur has had a chance to prove he isn’t the socially inept anti-hero portrayed by Eisenberg, but, rather, a benevolent titan of the digital age.”

Patrick Goldstein of The Big Picture wrote this:

“My theory is that all this kumbaya tub-thumping wasn’t just a spontaneous outpouring of awards-season good cheer. It was more likely the product of shrewd Oscar-season strategizing. Sorkin and ‘Social Network’ producer Scott Rudin were forging this rapprochement for one reason and one reason only–they believe that having an appearance of harmony between the film and its subject will help ‘Social Network”s Oscar chances. If Zuckerberg was still running around, bitching and moaning about his portrayal, as he was doing around the time of the film’s release last fall, it would inspire a new round of inflammatory media hit pieces about the film’s veracity, stories that could only do damage to the film’s Oscar chances.”

Either way, this whole ride for Zuckerberg has been fascinating to watch unfold. I will say that five months ago, I never would have seen this coming. Heck, the real Mark Zuckerberg could be the true underdog story of the Oscar race.

It’s always nice when we get a surprise. I get so sick of hackneyed Hollywood plotlines being lived out by celebrities.

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Tags: Mark Zuckerberg, Random Factoid, The Social Network
Categories : Random Factoids

Oscar Moment: FINAL 2010 Predictions!

24 01 2011

Best Picture

The Social Network
The King’s Speech
The Fighter
Black Swan (5)
Inception (4)
True Grit (9)
Toy Story 3 (6)
The Kids Are All Right (7)
127 Hours (10)
The Town (NR)

In case you needed any reminder of why the movie in the top spot is comfortably perched there, look above.

“The Social Network” is way ahead in the lead, and I personally don’t think that anything is going to stop it. But “The King’s Speech” threw an interesting twist into the race with its PGA victory on Saturday night with the help of a preferential ballot, and more discussion about this will be appropriate once the slate is officially set for February 27.

At this point, I honestly think that “The Fighter” could be the only movie with a chance to knock it out of the top slot. It could easily take the SAG ensemble win, and it has popped up unexpectedly in many guilds. The movie has also positioned itself to win two acting awards after victories with the BFCA and HFPA. I just get a sinking sensation that this is the movie that has enough across-the-board love to pull an upset on a preferential ballot.

“Black Swan” has popped up on EVERY guild list this year, something that could make it the most nominated movie of the year. This is obviously huge for the movie, but now that it’s assured a nomination, I’m thinking about how likely a win would be. Given that the movie tends to polarize, the chances are small. And as I’ve said about “The King’s Speech” all year, it’s not the Academy’s type of movie anymore, so I still have a hard time seeing it win. “Inception” is out of the running because it missed out on a SAG ensemble nod despite being star-studded, and you need the support of the actors to win.

Those are the five certainties, and I’d be awestruck if any of those five miss. I think “True Grit” and “Toy Story 3” are locks for nominations as well. “The Kids Are All Right” is in, but I still stand by my assertion earlier this year that it would not shock me to see it left off.

It’s down to three movies – “127 Hours,” “The Town,” and “Winter’s Bone” – to battle it out for the final two slots. There could, of course, be lurking surprises like “The Blind Side” last year, but no movie seems to have positioned its chips to make a big move on nominations day. Every critical darling is underseen, and all the box office smashes are poorly reviewed.

I think “127 Hours” is in because it has a passionate base of supporters that should be able to overcome the faction of the Academy that simply won’t watch the movie. It’s from Danny Boyle, who is clearly an Academy favorite after his “Slumdog Millionaire” orchestrated a sweep of the Oscars in 2008 that we only see once or twice a decade. This a powerful movie, and those who can sit through it walk out with an enhanced appreciation of life. I think they can easily power it to a nomination.

Previously, I had predicted “Winter’s Bone” to take that final slot. But ever since the PGA left it on the outside looking in, I’ve been more inclined to favor “The Town.” As I said on the LAMBcast, putting Ben Affleck’s movie in the field would make for a perfect 50-50 split between indies and blockbusters. It would give a nice sense of “something for everyone” to Best Picture, which is kind of what I think the idea was when they expanded the field.

But “Winter’s Bone” does have a few things going for it. While I don’t think many people LOVE “The Town,” I do think that there is a significant handful of people that do love “Winter’s Bone.” It’s nothing like any of the other Best Picture nominees this year; it’s understated, quiet, stars no-name actors, and is truly of an independent sensibility.

The other so-called “indies” in the race feature recognizable actors and have largely entered mainstream consciousness. I wouldn’t count out the desire to represent a part of the industry that isn’t manifest in the first 9 nominees, but my pick is still on “The Town.” For better or for worse.

In case you were really hankering for my no guts no glory pick for a Best Picture nominee, it would be “Shutter Island.” But I don’t think that’s likely.

Best Director

David Fincher, “The Social Network”
Darren Aronofsky, “Black Swan” (3)
Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech” (4)
Christopher Nolan, “Inception” (2)
David O. Russell, “The Fighter”

No real change in the field here. If there’s any surprise in this category, it will likely come at the expense of David O. Russell, a prickly figure in Hollywood. But since this would be his first nomination, and those likely to replace him have won in the past three years (Danny Boyle/The Coen Brothers), he seems like a good bet. I’d also say that Christopher Nolan isn’t as safe as most would like him to be; the DGA has shortlisted him twice and the Academy has yet to recognize him in this category. A snub would be shocking but not unforseeable.

For the win, it’s Fincher way out in front. Even if “The King’s Speech” or “The Fighter” makes headway in the Best Picture race, there is no doubt that this award will be going to “The Social Network” and its genius helmer. It would be foolish to place your money anywhere else.

Read the rest of this entry »

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Tags: Christian Bale, Colin Firth, David Fincher, Natalie Portman, The Social Network
Categories : 2010 - Oscar Moment, Oscar Moment

Random Factoid #536

15 01 2011

I’ve been meaning to enshrine this article in factoid ink for about 7 months now, and the opportunity has finally risen for me to do that! Huzzah!

Now that I’m 18 and can legally see any movie I want, I get a little PO’d when movies that look promising to me get a PG-13 rating. Call it selfishness, which it probably is, but I want the movies to be targeted to me, not the little 12-year-olds who get dropped off at the theater. Now that I’m on the other side of the age divide, I simply don’t want movies to be dumbed-down to be appropriate enough for everyone to buy a ticket. I understand that it’s all for commercial reasons, but this often leads to a decline in quality.

I’m not talking about the obvious editing that cut the F-bomb out of “The Social Network” to get it a PG-13; I’m talking about the lower-caliber action movies that drop down a few notches so parents feel OK dropping off their 10-year-olds to see it. It’s unsatisfying for those of us who like watching GOOD action that you can only get in an R-rated movie, and once you’ve seen it done at its most violent, it’s hard to respect the kiddie version.

Which brings me to a piece Entertainment Weekly posted in June 2010 about “The A-Team,” asking if the PG-13 rating ruined yet another action movie, much like “The Green Hornet” did this week. They not only dialed down the action for the Seth Rogen vehicle, but they also had to dim the drunk/stoner humor which could have added a lot more to the movie. Author Darren Franich described “The A-Team” experience as something that “could have been an enjoyably coarse testosterone-fest [but] felt pruned and bland.” The same words can easily describe this week’s opener, which has put up unspectacular numbers at the box office.

So, for the viewing pleasure of everyone who earns money to pay for movies, let’s make all action movies R-rated! Kids just sneak into them anyways; it’s not like the rating is any sort of an unmovable barrier.

(I will add as a caveat to this piece that the standards for what’s permissible in a PG-13 seems to have really dropped in recent years, probably to the point that something rated R a few years ago could probably get a PG-13 now.)

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Tags: PG-13, Random Factoid, The A-Team, The Green Hornet, The Social Network
Categories : Random Factoids

Oscar Moment: January 14, 2011 Awards Round-Up

14 01 2011

It’s been a relatively uneventful week in the Oscar world, although it’s about to get hectic with the BFCA announcing their favorites of 2010 at the Critic’s Choice Awards tonight and the HFPA doing the same at the Golden Globes on Sunday. (This will probably require a new set of predictions.)

So, before I get started laying out what happened, let me present to you the beginning of my campaign for the LAMMY for Best Awards Season Coverage. Last weekend, I led the LAMBcast in a discussion of the major categories of the Oscars this year. Hopefully you can hear the knowledge that I impart through writing with this column. So click on the picture below to download the podcast, or you could also check it out over at the LAMB or at Blog Cabins. (A big thanks to Tom, James, Nick, and Dylan for being such great participants!)

We have our five. If were back in ancient times (think 2008), we would have a pretty good guess at what the five Best Picture nominees would be. The Directors Guild and the American Cinema Editors, two incredibly reliable prognosticators of the field, have aligned perfectly. They also happen to match the Golden Globes drama category as well. In case you need those movies repeated (or can’t decode them from the convenient graphic above), here they are:

It was a little surprising to see David O. Russell get a nod from the Directors Guild as he has a pretty bad reputation thanks to his temper. But his story runs parallel to the second chance aspect of “The Fighter,” and the Academy could be won over by that connection. Or, they could give him the cold shoulder and include an old winner like Joel & Ethan Coen for “True Grit” or Danny Boyle for “127 Hours.” Unfortunately, you can’t discount Nolan for a snub either as he has been recognized twice by the DGA but never before by the Academy.

As for the editing guild, it was probably most surprising to see “The King’s Speech” (or perhaps “The Fighter”) in the field over a really flashily edited movie like “True Grit,” “127 Hours,” or “Shutter Island,” the latter of which was directed by a hallowed industry veteran. But since they sprung for both of the Best Picture frontrunners, it just makes things all the more clear for who to look at for the win.

ASC announces. The American Society of Cinematographers, on the other hand, did not adhere to the five. It replaced “The Fighter” with “True Grit,” which is considered by many to be the frontrunner as Roger Deakins’ photography is stunning. He’s won twice from the society but has never been rewarded by the Academy despite an astounding EIGHT nominations. Forget Annette Bening, here’s a deserving candidate for a lifetime achievement Oscar.

It was also quite surprising to see “The King’s Speech,” which did not have a very flashy visual style, take a nomination over “127 Hours.” Danny Boyle’s movie had two directors of photography, one of which has won an Oscar and ASC award for his work. But it shows a surprising amount of technical admiration for “The King’s Speech,” which seems to be an across-the-board favorite. The only problem is that “The Social Network” and “Black Swan” have pretty much matched it step by step. Look for “The King’s Speech” to take the most nominations simply because it will have three actors going for the gold, but all three movies could have 10 nominations.

“The Social Network” piles it on. The movie continued its domination of the critics circuit by taking home top honors from the National Society of Film Critics. Aside from the usual holy Best Picture/Director/Screenplay triumvirate, Jesse Eisenberg won Best Actor. I’d still say that he could pull an Adrien Brody come Oscar night, the young actor taking down some more established contenders.

It also took Best Picture honors from the Alliance of Women Film Journalists and the Toronto Critics, although “Inception” did take the North Texas Film Critics, who have an ENORMOUS say on the state of the Oscar race as we know it.

Fincher chimes in with his take on the race. Interestingly enough, the man considered the frontrunner for Best Director doesn’t engage in hyperbolizing his movie. Here’s what he had to say about “The Social Network” and awards season.

“I hate the awards part of the moviemaking process…And besides, on ‘[The] Social Network,’ I didn’t really agree with the critics’ praise. It interested me that ‘[The] Social Network’ was about friendships that dissolved through this thing that promised friendships, but I didn’t think we were ripping the lid off anything. The movie is true to a time and a kind of person, but I was never trying to turn a mirror on a generation…Let’s hope we strove to get at something interesting, but Social Network is not earth-shattering.”

I think his honesty will ultimately go a long way as some people have been overdoing and exaggerating the praise for the movie from dramatic effect.

Ditto Helena Bonham Carter. I was not a big fan of Carter in “The King’s Speech,” not because I don’t like the actress but because I thought she just showed up. I didn’t really see much of a performance. Apparently, she thinks similarly:

“I thought it was a boys’ film … Sometimes you get nominated for the wrong things. I’m not knocking it, because I want the good roles, so if it helps me get another really good part, that’s great. For that moment, when you’re nominated, you get offered parts you wouldn’t otherwise be offered. After ‘Wings of a Dove’ [sic], I got ‘Fight Club.’ When you are up for awards, they remember you’re still alive.”

She will still get nominated, but it’s interesting that she’s even willing to admit the misplaced politics of the Oscar season.

“Black Swan” and “True Grit” roll. Oscar season can turn independently-spirited movies into box office smashes, and this year has two beneficiaries of this phenomenon. “True Grit,” after three weeks, has shot to the #1 slot and has exceeded almost every expectation set out for it. The movie will soon become one of the highest-grossing westerns ever.

And “Black Swan” has only been gaining more steam with time. Last weekend, it only dropped 6% in the standings and entered the top 5. With curiosity about the movie building (due somewhat in part to its high-profile parody on “SNL“), Fox Searchlight has added about 700 theaters this weekend, expanding “Black Swan” into nearly 2,500 theaters nationwide. For such a small indie, this is huge. It has about $65 million in its coffers now and should cruise to $100 million with more buzz coming with inevitable high-profile wins for Portman and loads of Oscar nominations.

If you told me at the beginning of the year that a movie about “Swan Lake” would make more money than a movie about Facebook, I wouldn’t have believed you. But “Black Swan” is becoming a big audience favorite and has entered pop culture consciousness in a way that no one could have expected. Obviously it’s a nominee, but it could be a dark horse to win the prize.

“Toy Story 3” stands resolute. The underdog everyone’s secretly rooting for, “Toy Story 3” is the one movie outside the five worth taking seriously for the win. Thanks to the preferential voting system now in place, it could be the greatest common denominator for Academy members as there’s really no one who didn’t like the movie. The ad campaign for the movie has been aggressive yet never hitting a sour note. It’s the highest grossing and best reviewed movie of the year. If it weren’t animated, it would be a lock for Best Picture.

We talk about it being “time” for a lot of things; last year, it was a woman winning Best Director. It’s been a muted theme throughout the year, but maybe it’s time for an animated movie to win Best Picture. It’s the most deserving candidate from the genre in a long time, perhaps ever. It would be a well-earned salute to Pixar, which has served to redefine the boundaries and scope of animation as we know it. The “Toy Story” series is what started it all, and its touching farewell may be the best chance ever for an animated movie to win Hollywood’s biggest honor.

It popped up as a BFCA and PGA nominee for Best Picture, but since it’s animated, it can’t pick up much steam with the guilds. It has to glide on heart, something that is unfortunately immeasurable in the awards season. A “Toy Story 3” win isn’t out of sight, but it’s impossible to predict. Some jaws would drop on Oscar night, but out of those mouths would come cheers.

Golden Globe Predictions

I mean, why not? There’s not much else to talk about this week.

Best Picture (Drama): Smart money is on “The King’s Speech,” but I’m going to stick by “The Social Network” even with less nominations and being less of a Globes film. I think the movie is going to steamroll through the season much like “Slumdog Millionaire” did in 2008, but if it loses, then we have a fun race. I wouldn’t count out “The Fighter” here.

Best Picture (Musical/Comedy): “The Kids Are All Right” in a landslide. Next?

Best Director: David Fincher has won pretty much every award so far, this should be no exception.

Best Actor (Drama): Firth all the way. Perhaps an Eisenberg upset could be at works here, which would make this an interesting race. But at the moment, we have a clear frontrunner and an apparently clear winner.

Best Actor (Musical/Comedy): This category has been slim pickings for many years, and they bounce between choosing fluffier movies (Downey for “Sherlock Holmes“) and artistic movies (Farrell for “In Bruges”). There are two low-brow performances here (Johnny Depp and Johnny Depp) and two high-brow, little-seen performances (Kevin Spacey and Paul Giamatti). Big money says Depp for “Alice in Wonderland,” high art says Giamatti for “Barney’s Version.” I’m saying they’ll meet at a middle ground and reward Jake Gyllenhaal for his great and very agreeable performance in “Love & Other Drugs.”

Best Actress (Drama): No contest for Natalie Portman, if not for it being the performance, then at least because she’s the only actress in a Best Picture candidate. The Globes do love Nicole Kidman and could shock us by giving her a fourth trophy, but it seems doubtful at best.

Best Actress (Musical/Comedy): Annette Bening had better be practicing her acceptance speech because she’s the biggest lock of the night. However, I’d sure love to see Julianne Moore take her down.

Best Supporting Actor: Bale takes it to cement his status as a lock to win. Perhaps Rush if they really like “The King’s Speech.”

Best Supporting Actress: The Globes aren’t the greatest mirror of the Oscar race with their winner. They usually skew younger, so I’m inclined to discount Melissa Leo, who wasn’t recognized here in 2008 for her Oscar-nominated turn in “Frozen River,” and Jacki Weaver on those grounds. I’m probably out of my mind declaring this a race between Adams and Kunis, but I’m getting a sinking sensation that Mila Kunis will win here. They gave this statue to Natalie Portman for “Closer” back in 2004 at a younger age, so I don’t think it’s all that crazy to predict her as the victor.

Best Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin’s script for “The Social Network” should continue its domination here, although since it does face some original scripts, it could lose to “The King’s Speech.”

What are your thoughts on the Oscars at the moment? On the Golden Globes? Does “Toy Story 3” have a chance? Sound off below in the COMMENTS!

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Tags: Black Swan, Inception, The Fighter, The King's Speech, The Social Network
Categories : 2010 - Oscar Moment, Oscar Moment

Oscar Moment: January 7, 2011 Awards Round-Up

7 01 2011

It’s been 3 weeks since I last ran this column (thanks to Christmas Eve, New Year’s Eve, and a general lack of events in the awards sphere), and I sure have missed writing. In a ways, a lot of things have happened since then. Yet, at the same time, not a whole lot has happened.

So, without further ado, here are some developments in the Oscar race worth nothing:

The Producers Guild nominates. A group representing the interests of Hollywood producers, the Producers Guild is generally a pretty good indicator of how the Academy will ultimately shape their field. They ultimately solidified that we have eight almost sure-fire nominees, leaving the two remaining spots up for grabs by a few movies. In case you don’t know which eight movies I’m referring to, here they are in a convenient bulleted list (in alphabetical order):

Some might argue that “The Kids Are All Right” isn’t a lock since it missed a BFCA nomination and wasn’t a big audience favorite; others might say that “True Grit” isn’t certain because it was totally snubbed at the Golden Globes. I think that both will ultimately get nominated, but “True Grit” is safer because of its robust box office numbers.

But for their last two nominees, they chose Danny Boyle’s “127 Hours” and Ben Affleck’s “The Town.” Both were BFCA nominees for Best Picture that missed Golden Globe nominations for the same award. Neither were big hits with the SAG, only garnering one nomination.

The big story is that Debra Granik’s “Winter’s Bone” was left out in the cold after garnering a BFCA nod for Best Picture and two SAG nominations. It’s been basically narrowed down to “Winter’s Bone,” “127 Hours,” and “The Town” to fight for those last two spots, and missing out on the PGA nomination really hurt here. It’s not a big movie for producers being the tiny budget indie that it is.

I’d also say that the indie portion of Best Picture has been covered without “Winter’s Bone.” Three nominees for the Best Independent Film at the Independent Spirit Awards, “127 Hours,” “The Kids Are All Right,” and “Black Swan,” will likely be represented in the Academy’s field. These three movies had better box office than “Winter’s Bone,” which only made $6 million this summer. So, in other words, “The Town” has leap-frogged “Winter’s Bone” in my predictions.

For historical reference, the PGA chose 8 of the Academy’s 10 selections, choosing “Invictus” and “Star Trek” over “The Blind Side” and “A Serious Man.”

The Writers Guild nominates. Before listing the nominees, it’s worth noting that there were many high profile ineligibilities this year. In original screenplay, “Another Year,” “Blue Valentine,” and “The King’s Speech” were among the most notable; in adapted screenplay, they excluded “Toy Story 3” and “Winter’s Bone.”

In original screenplay, the surprise nominee was “Please Give,” which will compete against probable Best Picture nominees “Black Swan,” “The Fighter,” “Inception,” and “The Kids Are All Right.” I envision this race as a battle between the latter two movies; the winner will then have to go head-to-head with “The King’s Speech” at the Oscars. (All three were nominated at the Golden Globes but will probably lose to “The Social Network.”) As for “The Fighter,” it will probably be fighting “Another Year” for the final slot in the category – and will most likely be snubbed due to the Academy’s worshipping of Mike Leigh.

In adapted screenplay, they threw a total curveball by throwing “I Love You Phillip Morris” into a field that included “127 Hours,” “The Social Network,” “The Town,” and “True Grit.” Aaron Sorkin is going to run away with this category, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see “The Town” and “True Grit” make way for “Toy Story 3” and “Winter’s Bone” at the Oscars.

The USC Scripter finalists announced. An award for film adaptations of literature, the USC Scripter award is a nice award for screenwriters to pick up on the way to Best Adapted Screenplay. (In case you couldn’t deduce it, “Toy Story 3” was ineligible.)

The surprise nominee was “The Ghost Writer” among potential Oscar nominees “127 Hours,” “The Social Network,” “True Grit,” and “Winter’s Bone.” It’s a nice boost for Roman Polanski’s movie, and it certainly gives it a blip on the awards radar. But given how unofficial the award is, it’s probably unwise to look to much into it.

Besides, as I already said, it’s the year of Aaron Sorkin. However, many people believe it to be practically an original screenplay as Sorkin finished his screenplay before Ben Mezrich finished his book, “The Accidental Billionaires.” Mezrich sent Sorkin his notes and research while he was writing the book, and “The Social Network” is based on those – NOT the final book. So perhaps as an adaptation, it’s not the kind of movie that could win this.

BAFTA longlists announced. The real nominations for the BAFTAs (the British version of the Oscars) aren’t announced until January 18, but for some strange reason, they choose to announce a field of 15 in each category that they will ultimately select their nominees from.

The result is ultimately a bunch of clutter not worth looking too much into. “The King’s Speech” and “Black Swan” led the long list with 15 mentions each. Obviously the former, being such a prominent British title, stands a pretty good chance of taking the most nominations when the real ones are announced.

They did star the top five vote-getters in the preliminary rounds which do provide some interesting insight into their ultimate nominees. So with that in mind, here are some highlights from the list so you don’t have to look at it yourself:

“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” made their Best Picture longlist. (They didn’t star any nominees in the category.)
Danny Boyle was one of the starred directors. This is a good sign for Boyle, who seems to be slipping with his movie in the Best Director race. If the British contingent is behind him, he could outmuscle the Coen Brothers for the final slot.
Aaron Eckhart was longlisted for “Rabbit Hole” (personal favorite, sorry) as were both Leonardo DiCaprio performancesi in 2010. Starred were the usual suspects Eisenberg, Firth, and Franco as well as Jeff Bridges and surprisingly Javier Bardem, who could use a boost right now other than an endorsement of “Biutiful” by Julia Roberts.
Among likely Best Actress nominees Annette Bening, Natalie Portman, and Michelle Williams, starred selections included Carey Mulligan for “Never Let Me Go” and Julianne Moore for “The Kids Are All Right.” This is big for the latter, who seems to be bullied out of the Best Actress category by her co-star Bening.
Justin Timberlake was longlisted for “The Social Network,” but co-star Andrew Garfield was starred, along with favorites Bale, Rush, and Ruffalo. Also starred was Bob Hoskins in the British movie “Made in Dagenham.”
All three of the supporting females in “Black Swan” were on the longlist, including Winona Ryder. Surprisingly, it was Barbara Hershey and not Mila Kunis who was starred. (Fingers crossed Hershey could score an Oscar nod!)
Melissa Leo, the apparent frontrunner in Best Supporting Actress for her role in “The Fighter,” was not starred. Her co-star Amy Adams was starred, as was Miranda Richardson was starred for “Made in Dagenham.”
Category fraud was seemingly corrected by placing Hailee Steinfeld in leading actress for “True Grit” and Lesley Manville in supporting actress for “Another Year.”
Don’t trust them too much – “Alice in Wonderland” was listed as a potential Best Director and Best Actor nominee.

See the full longlists HERE at In Contention.

Technical guilds chime in. The Cinema Audio Society announced its five picks for Best Sound Mixing, which included “Black Swan,” “Inception,” “Shutter Island,” “The Social Network,” and “True Grit.” Perhaps the most surprising nominee is “The Social Network,” which isn’t perceived as a big technical movie. Yet if it continues to pick up nominations, it will prove how widely appealing the movie is – and make it that much more likely to win Best Picture. The more nominations it can pick up, the better.

The Art Directors Guild recognized excellence in three categories as follows:

Period Film
“Get Low”
“The King’s Speech”
“Robin Hood”
“Shutter Island”
“True Grit”

Fantasy Film
“Alice in Wonderland”
“The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader”
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I”
“Inception”
“TRON Legacy”

Contemporary Film
“Black Swan”
“The Fighter”
“127 Hours”
“The Social Network”
“The Town”

Again, it’s good for “The Social Network” that it picked up a mention. But perhaps the movie most in need of technical guild support is “Inception,” which came up blank at the SAG Awards. To take home Best Picture, it’s going to need to make a strong showing with these guilds.

“Shutter Island” showed up on both guild lists, setting it up as a dark horse Best Picture nominee. I doubt it happens, but now it can’t be totally unforeseen.

Critics groups all but wrap up. In case you didn’t hear, “The Social Network” swept pretty much all of the critics groups in 2010. It earned its status as “critical darling,” taking home Best Picture from just about everyone. Here are those that dared to be different:

Austin – “Black Swan”
Central Ohio – “Inception”
Dublin – “A Prophet”
Phoenix – “The King’s Speech”
San Diego – “Winter’s Bone”
Utah – “127 Hours” (tied with “The Social Network”)

So as you can see, there was no clear second place movie for critics to “The Social Network.” But someone with the time to calculate the results wrote that “Black Swan” took the second-most honors from critics groups.

The first phase of the Oscar race in 2010 is over, and “The Social Network” has clearly won. But can it keep the lead? Or will another movie come and steal awards from the BFCA, Golden Globes, or SAG? Check back next week as phase two begins.

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Tags: 127 Hours, I Love You Phillip Morris, Please Give, The Ghost Writer, The Kids Are All Right, The Social Network, The Town
Categories : 2010 - Oscar Moment, Oscar Moment

10 for ’10: Best Movies (The Challenge)

31 12 2010

Catch up with the idea behind this series here.

By the time the clock runs down on 2010, I will have seen over 90 movies. Most of them were average, nothing special but nothing horrible. An alarming number were downright terrible. But, as always, there are enough gems that shine above the coal to fill out a top 10 list. It wasn’t quite as agonizing a process this year, but that’s beside the point. I want to leave 2010 smiling because, for the most part, it was a good year for the movies – provided you were willing to look off the beaten path.

What I found in common with these 10 special movies released in 2010 was a challenge. Each movie, in an entirely different way, issued a challenge to the moviegoer. These movies weren’t complacent just providing two hours of escapism; they went so far as to engage our minds, hearts, and souls in the moviegoing experience. They provided something that stuck with me, the movie watcher and reviewer, long after they ended and will continue to stick with me well into 2011.

So, here’s to the challenge, here’s to 2010, and here’s to movies!

#10

“Easy A”
(A Challenge to High School)
Directed by Will Gluck
Written by Bert V. Royal
Starring Emma Stone, Penn Badgley, and Amanda Bynes

It was about time that a movie like “Easy A” came along and perfectly encapsulated what it’s like to be a high school student in the era of texting and Facebook. I was scared that my generation wasn’t going to get a Hollywood spotlight until twenty years later, and that would make us look like some kind of hokey antiques like the kids in “Grease.” What makes “Easy A” so brilliant is how it incorporates the modern with the past, be it as distant as the Puritans or as recent as the Breakfast Club, to show how fundamentally different the high school experience has changed even since 2004’s “Mean Girls.”

For me, very few moments were so beautifully authentic this year as the movie’s high-speed mapping of the rumor mill, which now moves at the speed of light (or a 3G connection). Propaganda posters after World War II suggested that loose lips cost lives, but in 2010, “Easy A” shows how it can cost reputations, something much more precious in high school. Technology may have evolved, but high school hasn’t. Society may have improved thanks to these innovations, so why haven’t we?

“Rabbit Hole”
(A Challenge to Coping)
Directed by John Cameron Mitchell
Written by David Lindsey-Abaire
Starring Nicole Kidman, Aaron Eckhart, and Dianne Weist

Grief is either overdone or understated. In “Rabbit Hole,” it’s presented in a manner so raw that it manages to be both at the same time, making for one of the most moving experiences of the year. A story about a husband and wife, played to brilliance by Nicole Kidman and Aaron Eckhart, grieving their lost child, the movie shows many ways to cope. Kidman’s Becca wants to move on, Eckhart’s Howie wants to live with it, and in the middle of it all is Becca’s mother, played by Dianne Weist, offering her advice on how to get to the peaceful state in which she resides. There’s no answer to the question of who handles it best or which way is best; in fact, there’s not even an attempt to answer it. But there’s something beautiful about an unanswered question, and maybe that’s why the grace of “Rabbit Hole” has stuck with me for so long.

“Get Him to the Greek”
(A Challenge to Remain Silent)
Written and Directed by Nicholas Stoller
Starring Jonah Hill, Russell Brand, and Sean Combs

Okay, you can forget the challenge here. It’s not coming from “Get Him to the Greek,” it’s coming from me – I dare you not to laugh at this movie. Between the dynamite comedic pairing of Jonah Hill and Russell Brand, the scene-stealing farce that is Sean Combs’ foul-mouthed music exec Sergio, the ridiculous and totally awesome music of Infant Sorrow, and the hilarious situations that drive the movie, “Get Him to the Greek” was my favorite comedy of 2010. It’s filled with endless quotables and capable of many repeat viewings without any diminishing laughter.

“Fair Game”
(A Challenge to Patriotism)
Directed by Doug Liman
Written by Jez and John-Henry Butterworth
Starring Naomi Watts and Sean Penn

Rather than fall into the pile of scathing movies about America’s involvement in Iraq, “Fair Game” takes its anger in a fresh and different direction and funnels it into something constructive. The story of Valerie Plame Wilson, a scapegoat for the federal government in the wake of their exposure, is meant to rouse us, not to dismay us. We are proud that there are still people in this country who believe in the Constitution and the principles on which we were founded, and staying silent is simply not an option. While it hits you with rage, the knockout punch is of pride in Valerie and her courage to stand up for herself. “Fair Game” stands out as an exuberant flag-waving fan while all other movies of the same vein just mope in dreary cynicism.

“Inside Job”
(A Challenge to Care)
Written and Directed by Charles Ferguson
Narrated by Matt Damon

Who is responsible for the financial collapse of 2008? Charles Ferguson lets us know who he thinks in the activist epilogue, which you can more or less disregard if you choose to do so, but in the hour and 40 minutes prior, he points the finger at just about everyone possible. Including us. Sure, there were many factors leading to a worldwide meltdown of the economy that were out of our control, but a little bit of oversight, we could have seen it coming. By his systematic explanation of everything you need to know to understand what went down (call it “Global Meltdown for Dummies” if you must), he is challenging us to be the oversight that was lacking two years ago. And judging by how things have developed since then, we are going to need a whole lot of it.

“Inception”
(A Challenge to Imagination)
Written and Directed by Christopher Nolan
Starring Leonardo DiCaprio, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, and Marion Cotillard

For as much as I love the four movies I’m ranking ahead of “Inception,” none had such a monumental impact on the way movies are perceived and made quite like it. Christopher Nolan successfully redefined what imagination means for millions of moviegoers, many of whom had to see the movie multiple times to figure out what was going on in his labyrinthian dreamscape. With a massive spending allowance, he brought the spectacle to life and managed not treat the audience like children, which proved to be one of the most thrilling and psychologically satisfying experiences ever. If a movie like this can’t change the fabric of filmmaking, maybe we are headed for the dark ages like Roger Ebert cries.

“The Social Network”
(A Challenge to Modernity)
Directed by David Fincher
Written by Aaron Sorkin
Starring Jesse Eisenberg, Andrew Garfield, and Justin Timberlake

As an old adage goes, “Every time history repeats itself, the price goes up.” David Fincher and Aaron Sorkin’s “The Social Network” may appear to be a movie planted in the digital era, but as has been said many times, it’s a movie about age-old themes like power, greed, and betrayal. In essence, we’ve seen it before. Yet retold as the story of the site we visit every day, it’s fascinating. And it’s sublime thanks to brilliantly sculpted characters who never fit traditional hero/villain roles driving the narrative. However, this is not just a rehash; it’s a brilliant cautionary tale for our times about individuality, innovation, and solitude. “The Social Network,” along with its cryptic leading man Mark Zuckerberg, is the best movie of 2010 for serious conversation that’s relevant away from the screen and out of the theater.

“Toy Story 3”
(A Challenge to Feel)
Directed by Lee Unkrich
Written by Michael Arndt
Voices of Tom Hanks, Tim Allen, and Joan Cusack

So maybe the whole prison escape plot wasn’t the most original thing in the world. But “Toy Story 3” has a heart so big that nothing else matters. I have no shame in admitting that I cried like the child that the movie made me feel like. For the last 20 minutes of the movie, I felt the most beautiful mix of nostalgia, sadness, and joy that may just be the most powerful potion Pixar has brewed. To be my age and watch this movie is like an ultimate realization that childhood can’t last forever. But the tears aren’t just mourning, they are happy as the torch is passed to a new generation. I pray, for their sake, that no technology can ever replace the comfort that a toy and a little bit of imagination can bring to any child.

“127 Hours”
(A Challenge to Live)
Directed by Danny Boyle
Written by Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy
Starring James Franco

Life-affirming isn’t a word I get to use to describe movies very often, and that’s precisely what makes “127 Hours” one of the most special experiences of 2010. The perfect combination of Danny Boyle’s superhuman directing with James Franco’s rawly human acting makes for a movie experience defying the odds. Who would have thought that a movie about a man losing his arm would be the movie that made me most glad to be alive? The movie that made me most appreciative for the relationships in my life? The movie that took me on the most gut-wrenching yet blissfully rewarding roller-coaster ride? I don’t know if I’ll be able to watch “127 Hours” again, but I’m so glad I watched at least once because it truly was a movie I’ll never forget.

“Black Swan”
(A Challenge to EVERYTHING)
Directed by Darren Aronofsky
Written by Mark Heyman, Andres Heinz, and John MacLaughlin
Starring Natalie Portman, Mila Kunis, and Vincent Cassel

It’s such a fantastic irony that “Black Swan” is a movie about the inability of humans to achieve perfection, yet Darren Aronofsky’s movie is the closest thing to cinematic perfection in 2010. Behind Natalie Portman, who delivers one of the finest, if not the finest, performances I’ve ever seen from any actress, the movie soars to heights that I had previously thought unfathomable. It challenges just about every cinematic boundary that still exists and then proceeds to demolish them. But “Black Swan” doesn’t just destroy these boundaries for fun; it’s a purposeful and intelligent movie that gives a reason to change the boundaries of cinema for better and for good. Fearless director Darren Aronofsky choreographs a master ballet of a movie that weaves together horror, beauty, and psychological breakdown with such poise that you’ll wonder why every movie can’t be as thrilling as his. “Black Swan” is a glorious exaltation of cinema and a monumental achievement that will go down in history.

Comments : 4 Comments »
Tags: 127 Hours, Black Swan, Fair Game, Get Him to the Greek, Inception, Inside Job, Rabbit Hole, The Social Network, The Town, Toy Story 3
Categories : 10 for '10, Blog Events, Listful Thinking

10 for ’10: Performances

30 12 2010

Catch up with the idea behind this series here.

It’s impossible to celebrate a year in film without mentioning the performances that riveted us. Without further ado or fanfare, here are the 10 actors who reminded me of the power of their craft with their work in 2010.

Women

Amy Adams as Charlene Fleming in “The Fighter“

My original review:
Adams, usually the delightfully effervescent charmer, plays gritty and unapologetic in “The Fighter” and pulls it off to Oscar-worthy standards. She’s able to pull off just about any sort of character she takes, and the tenacious Charlene is different than anything we’ve ever seen her do before. It’s exciting to see an actress nowadays who isn’t content with finding one adjective to act and then carve themselves a niche, and Adams is quickly proving herself one of the most versatile actresses of our day.

Reflection:
Amy Adams has wowed me in a variety of different roles, from her unassuming nun in “Doubt” to the ditzy princess in “Enchanted.” Yet as Charlene, I think she may have hit the most beautiful note in her career so far with her heartfelt conversation with Bale’s Dickie on her front porch. As she reflects on her life and her good intentions, it’s such a wonderful moment filled with every ounce of sincerity that she has to give.

Barbara Hershey as Erica Sayers in “Black Swan“

My original review:
The best of the supporting bunch [in “Black Swan”] is by far and away Hershey as the pushy and demanding stage mom. Such roles often become stock characters; however, Hershey takes the role in frightening and invigorating new directions.

Reflection:
There wasn’t a more frightening performance this year than Hershey as Natalie Portman’s mother. There’s a whole lot of subtext that Hershey has to act, perhaps a whole hidden backstory as director Darren Aronofsky alluded to, and that’s usually a daunting task for actors to pull off. Hershey shows no dust from her long hiatus from acting, keeping us scared and entranced at the same time.

Julianne Moore as Jules in “The Kids Are All Right“

My original review:
It’s Julianne Moore who absolutely brings down the house [in “The Kids Are All Right”]. As the more flighty, free-spirited Jules, she wins our hearts from the get-go, even if her antics only illicit groans from her other half. The character is very complex as she begins reeling from Paul’s introduction, exploring sides of herself she didn’t know even existed. It’s glorious to watch Moore dig deeper and deeper into her character as the movie goes on. She’s responsible for some of the movie’s funniest moments but also for its most effective emotional scene. Academy, take note.

Reflection:
Throughout the awards season, many pundits have thrown out that Annette Bening’s role in “The Kids Are All Right” is the character the audience is meant to sympathize with and thus makes her the better candidate for Best Actress. Without dragging politics into it, I found Julianne Moore’s Jules the more sympathetic character and, by the end, the only one I actually cared about. Moore has delivered so many fantastic performances, but what makes this one stand head and shoulders over the rest is her total emotional engagement in the role. We feel her torment, her frustration, and her confusion so profoundly because of how engrossed she is in the character. And what she puts in, we get out of the performance.

Natalie Portman as Nina Sayers in “Black Swan“

My original review:
The star of the show is Portman, and “Black Swan” is made all the more fascinating by how Nina’s development mirrors her performance. Much like Nina must lose herself in the role of the Swan Princess, Portman absolutely disappears into her character. It’s a shocking and startling transformation due to Portman’s dedication to learning the craft of ballet and her impeccable acting. The movie stands as a testament to the fact that she is one of the best emerging actresses of her generation, and her flawless showing here deserves to be minted in history alongside the greatest of all time. Portman gives a once-in-a-lifetime performance, and to miss it would be to deny yourself the chance to see as close to perfection as is cinematically possible.

Reflection:
Perfect. It was perfect.

Hailee Steinfeld as Mattie Ross in “True Grit”

Reflection:
I have yet to review “True Grit,” but when I do, expect the highest of praise for newcomer Hailee Steinfeld. There are very few actors that can spit out period dialogue at lightning speed with confidence, and there are probably even fewer that can do the same with the dialogue of the Coen Brothers. I don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone do both so well, a feat that would impress me from an Academy Award-winning actress but floors me when I consider that this is a debut performer. At such a young age, she has a complete and total mastery of her character’s deepest desires and feelings, and such a strong presence out in front of “True Grit” makes it a movie and a performance I won’t soon forget.

Men

Christian Bale as Dickie Ecklund in “The Fighter“

My original review:
The knockout punch of “The Fighter” is the performance of Christian Bale, a totally authentic portrayal of a drug addict, former boxer, jealous trainer – and all simultaneously. He doesn’t act or perform as the real life Dickie Ecklund so much as he becomes him and inhabits him. Every twitch, every word is meticulously planned by Bale, who slimmed down from his Batman physique to play the gaunt Dickie.

Reflection:
“The Fighter” is Micky Ward’s story, but it’s Dickie Ecklund’s movie. Bale, completely lost in the character, brings together all of his strengths to deliver what could be the quintessential performance of his career. It shows his physical commitment, his uncompromising authenticity, and a strangely pervasive sense of heart that’s often a little rough around the edges.

Jesse Eisenberg as Mark Zuckerberg in “The Social Network“

My original review:
Eisenberg nails all the eccentricities of the fast-talking technological wiz, and the nuances in his portrayal of Mark Zuckerberg will captivate for endless viewings.

Reflection:
Who is Mark Zuckerberg? After “The Social Network” was released, millions of people were left trying to answer the question. Is he the savior of the Internet and the symbol of a new era, or is he the force that will inadvertently bring it down and destroy all the comforts of our former lives? What makes this screen version of Zuckerberg so captivating is that Jesse Eisenberg doesn’t attempt to answer this question. Eisenberg gets to the core of what he thinks is motivating Zuckerberg, going so deep that no bias or opinion can color his interpretation. Then, he lays it all out on the screen and leaves it up to the viewer to decide who Mark Zuckerberg is. With the magazine TIME naming the entrepreneur their person of the year, Eisenberg may have made Mark Zuckerberg the folk hero of the digital age.

Colin Firth as King George VI in “The King’s Speech“

My original review:
It’s Firth’s show in the flashy role of King George, a character that must be inhabited, not just performed. Firth nails it, getting inside every thought and stammer of the king. He doesn’t just brush the surface as many actors playing historical figures do; he makes George vulnerable and sentimental. Firth’s poignant performance reminds us that what we should be looking for in movies like this is heart.

Reflections:
The royal family of England always feels so distant on film, living a life filmmakers believe is so different that ours that they have to put them in an ivory tower. Yet Colin Firth, armed with a fantastically written human being by the name of King George VI, tears their mythological status down brick by brick until his royal figure is so down to earth that he feels like an old friend. The movie wouldn’t have been half as inspiring had Firth not brought such an enormously relatable pathos to the role.

James Franco as Aron Ralston in “127 Hours“

My original review:
There’s never a dull or wasted moment to be found in the movie thanks to Franco’s sublime and enlightened performance. While shooting on location, Boyle consistently had him act in character for 20 minutes straight and then relied on the editor to find 30 seconds to make it into the final cut. This total immersion into Ralston’s desperation makes Franco all the more raw and moving.

Reflection:
The blasting score, fancy editing, and flashy cinematography of “127 Hours” can only go so far to make a static movie work. It requires a dynamic actor, both heartbreaking and heartwarming, that we can stick with until the bitter end. James Franco does just that and more as he makes pain and hope so tangible and so authentic that the movie never feels anything less than real. If anyone ever had a doubt that we need actors more than ever, Franco’s flawless work is all that’s needed to silence any critic.

Andrew Garfield as Eduardo Saverin in “The Social Network“

My original review:
Andrew Garfield as the upright Saverin is a force to be reckoned with, a true presence throughout the movie with his very likable charm. For just that reason, he makes it wrenching to watch the inevitable turn when Saverin gets cheated.

Reflection:
While Zuckerberg’s prickly exterior prevents us from ever liking him too much, Andrew Garfield endows Eduardo Saverin with a sharp mind, firm beliefs, and a strong moral compass, making us fall head over heels for his character. He’s an irresistible force on the screen, the good angel resting on Zuckerberg’s right shoulder whispering in his ear to follow common wisdom. The movie’s emotional climax wouldn’t work if we weren’t rooting for Saverin the entire time, and when he explodes with anger, you’ll want to jump in the frame and punch the jerks who wronged him.

Comments : 8 Comments »
Tags: 127 Hours, Amy Adams, Andrew Garfield, Barbara Hershey, Black Swan, Christian Bale, Colin Firth, Hailee Steinfeld, James Franco, Jesse Eisenberg, Julianne Moore, Natalie Portman, The Fighter, The Kids Are All Right, The King's Speech, The Social Network, True Grit
Categories : 10 for '10, Blog Events

10 for ’10: Quotes

28 12 2010

Catch up with the idea behind this series here.

A single line can have so much power in a movie. It can make us laugh, make us think, or make us cry. It can delve profoundly into the soul, give insight into a character’s mind, provide a perfect punch of beautiful language, or be so foolish that we can’t help but repeat it endlessly.

2010 gave us many great quotes from many great movies. Here’s just a sampling of how the power of the written word was wielded this year from 10 fantastic lines that served a great deal of purposes.

“Dating you is like dating a Stairmaster.”
– Erica Albright (Rooney Mara) in “The Social Network“

“I just want to be perfect.”
– Nina Sayers (Natalie Portman) in “Black Swan“

“That Charlene … she’s one of them MTv girls!”
– Micky Ward’s sisters in “The Fighter“

“It’s so fluffy I’m gonna die!”
– Agnes in “Despicable Me“

“This rock has been waiting for me my entire life.”
– Aron Ralston (James Franco) in “127 Hours“

“It was almost as if … I had a love that was all mine.”
– Olive Penderghast (Emma Stone) referencing Natasha Bedengfield in “Easy A“

“You’re waiting for a train, a train that will take you far away. You know where you hope this train will take you, but you can’t be sure. But it doesn’t matter … because we’ll be together.”
– Mal (Marion Cotillard) in “Inception“

“When the world slips you a Jeffrey, just stroke the furry walls.”
– Aldous Snow (Russell Brand) in “Get Him to the Greek“

“Stop trying, SURRENDER!”
– Richard from Texas (Richard Jenkins) in “Eat Pray Love“

“Thanks, guys.”
– Andy in “Toy Story 3“

Comments : 3 Comments »
Tags: 127 Hours, Black Swan, Despicable Me, Easy A, Eat Pray Love, Get Him to the Greek, Inception, The Fighter, The Social Network, Toy Story 3
Categories : 10 for '10, Blog Events

10 for ’10 – Worst Predictions

23 12 2010

Catch up with the idea behind this series here.

We can’t be right all the time, unfortunately. I’m among the guilty people on this planet who make stupid predictions every once in a while, and I made them often with conviction. Now that the year is over, here’s a look back at some of my worst predictions in chronological order – and with 2011 up ahead, I’m laughing at these predictions.

January

“… if there is a breakout hit in [January], my bet is on [‘Leap Year’].”

What To Look Forward To in … January 2010

Well, this didn’t turn out so well. In the first weekend of 2010, “Leap Year” opened to $9 million on its way to a total haul of only $25 million, ending up among the bottom half of January grossers. On the bright side, it did manage to recoup its production budget!

“Could Kristen Bell become a breakout romantic comedy star with ‘When in Rome?’ … I have a feeling that this could surprise people and a new start could be born.”

What To Look Forward To in … January 2010

“When in Rome” only grossed about $32 million in its whole run, or in Leyman’s terms, what “Avatar” grossed in its 7th weekend. As for Kristen Bell, she still hasn’t hit it big; “You Again” grossed even less in September.

April

“I’m waiting for tomorrow – ‘Clash of the Titans,’ baby!”

Shameless Advertisement #11 – April 2010

Talk about a bust. “Clash of the Titans” was a huge disappointment as I was really eagerly anticipating it. As I wrote in my review, “My eyes might have seen in three dimensions, but my brain saw a movie that only had one. Given how deeply rooted in mythology the story is, I had very high expectations for ‘Clash of the Titans.’ Unfortunately … it fails on all levels.”

May

“[Best Supporting Actor] LOVES villians … It is also a category that likes to reward actors (usually veterans) who are overdue for a trophy … By these two characteristics, Rourke would appear to have a great shot.”

Oscar Moment: “Iron Man 2”

It’s funny because while I wasn’t a fan of “Iron Man 2,” I actually thought Rourke was the worst part of the movie, and there I was writing about his awards chances! As I said in my review, “It’s hard to believe from watching ‘Iron Man 2’ that Mickey Rourke was being heralded as an Oscar nominee just 18 months ago. When we aren’t waiting for him to say a word, his Whiplash seems to be nothing more than an unkind Russian stereotype.” Clearly I liked “The Wrestler” too much …

“If ‘The Dark Knight’ was part of the reason that the Oscars moved to ten nominees, then they are still looking for that popcorn flick with enough brain to atone for their horrifying omission. ‘Robin Hood‘ could be that movie.”

Oscar Moment: “Robin Hood”

Clearly I forgot about a little movie called “Inception” that was gearing up for release.

August

“Don’t be surprised if [‘Scott Pilgrim vs. The World’] is an out-of-nowhere smash hit.”

What To Look Forward To in … August 2010

Despite massive love from the bloggers, “Scott Pilgrim vs. The World” became a high-profile flop over the summer, earning just $10 million in fifth place its opening weekend on its way to just over $30 million cumulatively. Ouch.

October

“I think the premise alone [of ‘The Social Network’] draws in $80 million in revenue, but the fact that it’s going to be really good will increase its total take to somewhere in the range of $120-150 million. I’m hardly a box office analyst, I know, yet I feel pretty confident making this financial prediction.”

Oscar Moment: “The Social Network”

Perhaps I overestimated the box office potential of “The Social Network” earlier this year. The Facebook movie drew in a respectable but not great $23 million in its opening weekend and displayed strong legs to power itself to $91 million (and still counting slowly). So I was a little bit off on it setting the box office on fire. But to my credit, I was dead-on about it being the Best Picture frontrunner all those months ago.

“I think [‘Hereafter’] could be a very powerful movie …”

What To Look Forward To in … October 2010

“Hereafter” was a pretty big disappointment for me in 2010. I wrote in my review, “In hyperlink cinema, one might say there exists a formula that the final product is equal to the sum of its parts. However, Eastwood’s ‘Hereafter’ in total feels like less.” Too bad, it could have been something good.

November

“To save the weekend, there’s Rachel McAdams in ‘Morning Glory!’ As if she’s not enough, Harrison Ford and Diane Keaton are on board for this drama-comedy mix that doesn’t seem to favor any genre over the other. What a great surprise awaits us!”

What To Look Forward To in … November 2010

Rachel McAdams may have won me over with her incredibly good looks, but she sure didn’t win me over with her 2010 movie selection. “Morning Glory” was incredibly cliched and forgettable, and it was hardly a breath of fresh air in November like I had imagined it would be. It was recycled air, like the gross kind on a plane.

December

“… ‘How Do You Know‘ is still unseen, but I’m getting good vibes. Probably stupid to put it on my list [of predicted Best Picture nominees] instead of ‘Another Year,’ but I’m going gutsy.”

Oscar Moment: November Predictions

How do you know when a movie won’t get a Best Picture nomination? When despite being directed by an Academy Award-winning filmmaker, it can’t even muster up a single Golden Globe nomination and movies like “Alice in Wonderland” and “The Tourist” can. If my hunch back then somehow winds up being right, I think a whole lot of people will give up Oscar guessing as a hobby.

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Tags: Clash of the Titans, Hereafter, Iron Man 2, Leap Year, Morning Glory, Robin Hood, Scott Pilgrim vs. The World, The Social Network, When In Rome
Categories : 10 for '10, Blog Events

Oscar Moment: December 17, 2010 Awards Round-Up / New Predictions

17 12 2010

Well, folks, if you had any doubt that Oscar season was here before this week, you can’t now. Nearly every critics group chimed in with their best of the year, and we got two massively important nominations lists from the Golden Globes and the Screen Actors Guild. The puzzle is really starting to come together, and since there was so much going on, the format of the last two weeks just didn’t really work.

In place of the usual “here’s the group, here’s what they selected” rambling, I decided to issue a new set of predictions based on what we saw over the past week.

A few notes before I begin: there’s no poll this week, and I’m debating whether or not to include one at all from here on out because there has been so little participation. Also, please click the links! I spend a lot of time linking the titles of movies to other posts I’ve written that might be of interest. The first time I mention a movie, it links to the trailer on YouTube. The second mention goes to my Oscar Moment on the movie. The third mention goes to my review, if applicable.

Past predictions: Early December 2010, November 2010, September 2010.

Best Picture:

No change in my top 10, but some big trends have emerged. It’s clear that “The Social Network” is the critics’ group darling of 2010. Do you want me to name all the cities and organizations who named it their Best Picture? I’m proud to say my own city of Houston named it theirs (updated on Saturday). Ok, here’s the list:

African-American Film Critics
Boston Society of Film Critics
Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
Detroit Film Critics Society
Houston Film Critics Society
Indiana Film Journalists Association
Las Vegas Film Critics Society
Los Angeles Film Critics Association
New York Film Critics Circle
New York Film Critics Online
San Francisco Film Critics Circle
Southeastern Film Critics Association
Toronto Film Critics Association
Washington, D.C. Area Film Critics Association

In addition, it picked up nominations from nods from critics in Chicago, St. Louis, and Phoenix who have yet to announce their winners. On top of the previous win from the National Board of Review, “The Social Network” clearly has a ton of heat heading into the home stretch. It received 6 Golden Globe nominations including Best Picture (Drama), 9 Critics Choice Award (BFCA) nominations including Best Picture, and 2 Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Award nominations including Best Ensemble, their version of Best Picture. Critics make a difference, but they don’t decide Best Picture. It helps, though, that it won top prize from the incredibly influential film centers of New York and Los Angeles.

However, “The King’s Speech” set itself up for a second-stage surge by scoring more nominations than “The Social Network” at all three of the major groups that announced this week. It received 7 Golden Globe nominations, the most of any movie in 2010, including Best Picture. It received 11 BFCA nominations including Best Picture. It received 4 SAG Award nominations, tied for the most of any movie in 2010, including Best Ensemble.

These voters are not necessarily like critics in their taste, and it would only take a win of one of these big awards to hoist Tom Hooper’s film to the top spot. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it win the Globe for Best Picture simply because they almost always choose the most nominated movie. Then again, that strategy didn’t work out in 2008 when “Slumdog Millionaire” with 4 nominations triumphed over the pack leader “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” with 5 nominations. “Slumdog” swept the critics awards that year, so there could be an interesting parallel forming.

But for me, one of the big stories of the week was the emergence of “The Fighter” as a serious contender. We had heard good things, but most called it somewhat predictable and formulaic. No one was jumping up and down with joy, yet we saw an unprecedented outpouring of support this week. It received 6 BFCA nominations including Best Picture, 4 SAG Award nominations, tied for the most of 2010, including Best Ensemble, and 6 Golden Globe nominations including Best Picture. I got a chance to catch the movie this week, and it’s feel-good surface could make it a dark horse to watch out for in the race.

Then again, so could “Inception,” which picked up 4 Golden Globe nominations including Best Picture, something Christopher Nolan’s “The Dark Knight” couldn’t do back in 2008. It has also been a staple on the critics circuit, although taking second fiddle to “The Social Network” of course. The summer blockbuster has been a part of every top 5 or 10, practically the only certainty outside of a movie not involving Facebook. With 10 BFCA nominations as well, it could make a play for Best Picture as well. It could easily wind up the most nominated film of 2010 at the Oscars given its impressive technical aspects.

“Black Swan” is also making strides in the race, scoring a record 12 nominations from the BFCA, 4 nominations from the Golden Globes including Best Picture, and 3 SAG Award nominations including Best Ensemble. The box office has helped too, and as it expands into more theaters, expect it to be the audience favorite art-house movie. I think it’s got to be a shoo-in for a nomination now, although the win will be tricky given the subject matter.

“The Kids Are All Right” goes up thanks to its great showing with the New York Film Critics Circle, winning more categories than “The Social Network,” and receiving 4 Golden Globe nominations including Best Picture (Musical/Comedy) as well as 3 SAG Award nominations including Best Ensemble. It had a big miss with the BFCA, though, failing to score a Best Picture nomination. It should easily win the Globe for Best Picture, and the prospects are looking much better than they did last week. But I’m still not entirely certain that it’s going to get an Oscar nomination…

“Winter’s Bone” continues to stride nicely towards a Best Picture nomination, notable for being the only movie to win a Best Picture prize from a critics group other than “The Social Network” (kudos to San Diego for the originality). It missed with the Golden Globes, but they rarely delve THAT indie.

Slipping this week are “True Grit” and “127 Hours,” neither of which found much love from the Golden Globes. The former was completely shut out while the latter received three nominations but not for Best Picture or Director. The one-man show was unlikely to score a SAG nomination apart from Franco, but “True Grit” missed big by not receiving a Best Ensemble nomination given its star-studded cast. They did manage to score with the BFCA, both receiving a nomination for Best Picture. “True Grit” received 11 total nominations from the group while “127 Hours” scored an impressive 8. Neither look very strong at this stage, and if there are going to be any surprises on nomination morning, it could come at the expense of these two movies.

Worth noting: all movies predicted (with the exception of “The King’s Speech” because it was ineligible) appeared on the American Film Institute’s Top 10 films of the year. Ben Affleck’s “The Town” was also included.

Best Director:

David Fincher, “The Social Network”
Christopher Nolan, “Inception” (4)
Darren Aronofsky, “Black Swan”
Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech” (2)
David O. Russell, “The Fighter” (NR)

Dropping off: Danny Boyle

Barring some massive surge of appreciation for the boldness of Nolan or Aronofsky’s work this year, Fincher has this in the bag simply because he’s the only prior nominee with his eyes on the prize and he deserves it. (Nolan took home Best Director from the African-American Critics Association and the Indiana Film Journalists Association, and Aronofsky won with San Diego and San Francisco critics.)

Tom Hooper moves down because the actors are the star of the campaign, not him. Since so few people know of him and his other movies, there’s no rush to recognize him.

Boyle departs the list this week as love for “127 Hours” has grown soft, replaced with reservations by David O. Russell. Given that he’s not the most popular man in Hollywood, it’s going to be hard for him to score a nomination. But if the love for “The Fighter” continues, the goodwill could push him into the race.

Best Actor:

Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
Jesse Eisenberg, “The Social Network” (3)
James Franco, “127 Hours” (2)
Mark Wahlberg, “The Fighter” (NR)
Ryan Gosling, “Blue Valentine”

Dropping off: Robert Duvall

Firth still stands steadfast at the top amidst all. He has made a decent showing with the critics, winning top marks from Detroit, San Francisco, Washington D.C., the Southeastern critics, and the incredibly important groups in New York and Los Angeles, both of which chose “The Social Network” as their Best Picture. If all else fails, he should be the one way the Academy knows they can reward “The King’s Speech.”

But the real story of the season so far is massive surge of love for Jesse Eisenberg, whose performance in “The Social Network” could easily have been overlooked due to his age. That has not been the case so far as Eisenberg has dominated the critics circuit, winning top prizes from Boston, Houston, and Toronto in addition to taking the first prize of the year from the National Board of Review. If the movie starts dominating everything in its path a la “Slumdog Millionaire,” Eisenberg could surprise and win.

Yet James Franco has won more awards on the critics circuit, taking the prize from Dallas-Fort Worth, Indiana, Las Vegas, and the New York Film Critics Online. This is the kind of performance that the critics really love, and its adulation from this corner doesn’t necessarily translate to Oscar gold. Apparently a lot of people simply won’t watch the movie because they are scared (which is a terrible reason), and the overall buzz for the movie has plummeted thanks to that and Fox Searchlight’s clumsy release strategy.

Firth, Eisenberg, and Franco are all locks at this moment, their status solidified by appearing on nearly every Best Actor shortlist including from the BFCA, Golden Globes, and SAG Awards. After that, there are essentially four actors vying for the final two slots – Jeff Bridges, Robert Duvall, Ryan Gosling, and Mark Wahlberg. The first two are the conservative picks; the last two are riskier.

Bridges and Duvall both received nominations from the SAG Awards and the BFCA but were overlooked by the Golden Globes. The SAG is usually a good indicator of the Academy’s ultimate selections, but they are also notorious for getting sentimental for older actors. Given the tepid support for “True Grit” and the absence of support for “Get Low,” I don’t know if the Academy can justify to itself the inclusion of two prior winners in movies they didn’t really like.

Mark Wahlberg, a prior nominee for 2006’s “The Departed,” only managed to score a nomination from the Golden Gloves and a win from the African-American Film Critics Association, but the surge for “The Fighter” bodes well for his chances despite missing nods from the BFCA and the SAG Awards. The leading actor usually gets swept along for the ride in scenarios like these, and that feels likely for Wahlberg. However, since the heart of the film is Christian Bale, not leading man Wahlberg, he could still be overlooked.

And then there’s Ryan Gosling, Best Actor nominee in 2006 for “Half Nelson,” whose raw performance I still keep in my top 5. There are two interesting trajectories Gosling has taken through awards season: in 2006, he was nominated by the BFCA but snubbed by the Golden Globes and SAG Awards on the way to an Oscar nomination. In 2007, his work in “Lars and the Real Girl” was recognized by all three organizations yet not nominated by the Academy. “Blue Valentine” is an entirely different path, as Gosling was nominated by the BFCA and Golden Globes but not by the SAG Awards. I have faith … for now.

Best Actress:

Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
Annette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone” (4)
Michelle Williams, “Blue Valentine” (5)
Nicole Kidman, “Rabbit Hole” (3)

No change in my top 5 this week as the same four actresses – Portman, Bening, Lawrence, Kidman – seeming to dominate the circuit collected nominations from the BFCA, the SAG Awards, and the Golden Globes. Unfortunately, due to the conflicting genre of their movies, we won’t get a Bening/Portman face-off at the latter ceremony. (And as a note, Kidman is at #5 because I just don’t think she will win. I see her as the Helen Mirren in “The Last Station” of 2010, a prior winner collecting every nomination but never with a real shot to win.)

I’m still picking Portman as I feel her performance is too good to be denied, and the love for “Black Swan” is high. She has also established herself as a critical favorite, winning awards from groups in Boston, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Indiana, Las Vegas, the Southeast, and the New York Film Critics Online. She has appeared on every shortlist for Best Actress, minor as a critics group or major as the BFCA, Golden Globes, and SAG Awards.

As I discussed last week, Portman has the performance but Bening has the respect. To win, she doesn’t need to be collecting all these awards, although it would help. She took home a very important Best Actress prize from the New York Film Critics Circle, a very influential group in the race. Until we see her go up against Portman, I see no reason to say she’s entitled to an Oscar victory for her career. She will need to win from the BFCA or the SAG Awards to assert her authority.

Jennifer Lawrence has also shown up on nearly every list made by critics, and she’s been winning her fair share of awards too, including from Detroit, San Diego, Toronto, and Washington D.C. She’s a critical darling in her own right, but I think she’s too young and too fresh a face to win.

There are several actresses vying for that last spot – Hilary Swank for “Conviction” who received a surprise SAG nomination, Halle Berry for “Frankie & Alice” who received a Golden Globe nomination, Julianne Moore for “The Kids Are All Right” who received a Golden Globe nomination, dark horse Swedish actress Noomi Rapace for “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” who received a BFCA nomiation, and Lesley Manville for “Another Year” who won the National Board of Review’s prize for Best Actress.

But I still think that last spot will be filled by Michelle Williams for “Blue Valentine” who was recognized by the Golden Globes and the BFCA as one of the best actresses of the year. She’s been an Oscar nominee before, and I think she has what it takes to sneak in.

Best Supporting Actor:

Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech”
Jeremy Renner, “The Town” (5)
Andrew Garfield, “The Social Network”
Mark Ruffalo, “The Kids Are All Right” (NR)

Dropping off: Matt Damon

Christian Bale has become the closest thing to a lock we can get this season, winning nearly everything in sight. In addition to picking up Best Supporting Actor nominations from the BFCA, Golden Globes, and the SAG Awards, he won the award from Boston, Dallas-Fort Worth, Detroit, Houston, Indiana, Las Vegas, New York Film Critics Online, and Washington D.C. If nothing else, Oscar socialism could be at work here to give “The Fighter” a trophy.

Geoffrey Rush received the trifecta of nominations this week as well, although his only win on the critics circuit has come from the Southeastern Film Critics Association. He was the runner-up, though, for the Los Angeles critics, a very influential group. If Bale’s temper flares up soon, expect Rush to capitalize and take the trophy.

Rising this week is Jeremy Renner, last year’s Best Actor nominee for “The Hurt Locker,” who also received the three crucial nominations that Bale and Rush did. He’s a quick way to recognize the movie if they don’t want to give it a Best Picture nomination.

Andrew Garfield, while being recognized by the BFCA and Golden Globes, was snubbed by the SAG Awards. While I think the success of “The Social Network” will keep him afloat, I don’t think his nomination is any certainty. Worth noting – some much deserved love went the way of Armie Hammer, Garfield’s co-star who breathed life into the Winklevi, from the Toronto Film Critics for Best Supporting Actor. Two nominees from the same movie hasn’t happened in this category for almost 20 years, but perhaps if “The Social Network” hits big, it could happen.

Mark Ruffalo finally makes it into my shortlist after receiving the Best Supporting Actor prize from the influential New York Film Critics Association as well as nominations from the BFCA and SAG Awards. It’s still a little strange that he missed out on a Golden Globe nomination (at the inclusion of Michael Douglas in “Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps,” no less), but the surge of love for the movie looks to power him into the race over John Hawkes in “Winter’s Bone,” who received a SAG Award nomination in addition to his prizes from San Francisco and San Diego.

Best Supporting Actress:

Melissa Leo, “The Fighter” (3)
Mila Kunis, “Black Swan” (NR)
Helena Bonham Carter, “The King’s Speech” (2)
Amy Adams, “The Fighter”
Jacki Weaver, “Animal Kingdom” (NR)

Dropping off: Hailee Steinfeld, Dianne Weist

I still have no idea what to make of this category. Melissa Leo seems to be an across-the-board favorite, so I’m inclined to favor her. She received nominations from all three major groups announcing this week and won the award from Dallas-Fort Worth, Washington D.C., the New York Film Critics Online, and most importantly the New York Film Critics Circle. In a year where there appears to be no clear favorite, she may be the consensus choice that everyone can agree on.

Amy Adams was also on board with Leo for the big three this week, also winning Detroit and Las Vegas’ prize. She could ultimately be Leo’s foil as vote-splitting becomes an issue. Of the six movies that received dual Best Supporting Actress nominations over the past decade, only one managed to win (Catherine Zeta-Jones over Queen Latifah in “Chicago”).

Mila Kunis stormed onto the scene this week, capturing nominations from the BFCA, Golden Globes, and SAG Awards. For a girl who this time last year was best known in cinema for her roles in “Forgetting Sarah Marshall” and “Max Payne,” this is a startling turnaround. The love shows that they love her performance, and I think the Oscars will reciprocate the love in a few weeks.

Helena Bonham Carter continues to ride on the coattails of the success of “The King’s Speech,” also popping up in all three major groups announcing their nominations this week. I see her much like Taraji P. Henson for “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” or Catherine Keener for “Capote” – great actresses turning in fairly good performances in beloved movies. Fairly good can’t win, but it’s sure going to get nominated.

The campaign for Jacki Weaver worked, so pat yourself on the back, Sony Pictures Classics. The “Animal Kingdom” actress was cited by the BFCA and Golden Globes as one of the five best supporting performances of the year, and she won the title outright from the Los Angeles critics, an extremely good sign that she’s headed for a nomination. The SAG snub hurt, and she still has to deal with lack of notoriety. But if it’s about the performance, she stands a good chance.

Dark horse Juliette Lewis won Boston’s prize for her work in “Conviction,” but I think it’s too small of a part to get nominated. Hailee Steinfeld took home top honors from Houston and Indiana for her work in “True Grit” and managed to net nominations rom the BFCA and SAG Awards. However, category confusion and lack of familiarity could keep her out. And for some strange reason, Dianne Weist has gone totally unnoticed this season save a meaningless Golden Satellite Award nomination. Bye, bye…

Best Original Screenplay:

Inception (3)
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech (1)
Black Swan (5)
Another Year (4)

Another pick that’s pretty far out there, but I’m getting a feeling that “Inception” will win Best Original Screenplay. The critics are all over its originality, and everyone seems on board the train. If “The Social Network” takes Best Picture, how else to reward this movie other than a few technical awards? Best Original Screenplay, of course, as the movie redefined originality and creativity for millions of moviegoers. The BFCA and Golden Globe nominations don’t hurt either.

Hot on its heels is “The Kids Are All Right,” which was recognized for its screenplay by the same two organizations. It also won the prize from the New York Film Critics Association (over “The Social Network,” I might add). There was a two-year comedy streak from 2006-2007, and we just hit a two-year drama streak. Perhaps it’s time for the pendulum to swing back…

While “The King’s Speech” also received the same two nominations, I just don’t feel like anyone is jumping up and down with love for the script. It’s an actor’s movie, not a writer’s movie, and the mentions feel more like courtesy than necessity. However, it did win the prize from the Southeastern critics and San Francisco and was a runner-up for Toronto, and Los Angeles’ prize, so maybe I’m wrong.

“Black Swan” is in because everyone likes the movie, and it got the nod from the BFCA. “Another Year” stays in because the Academy loves Mike Leigh.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

The Social Network
Toy Story 3
127 Hours (NR)
Winter’s Bone (5)
True Grit (3)

Dropping off: Rabbit Hole

“The Social Network” is still in peak condition, winning nearly every Best Screenplay award there is. But I hesitate to call it a lock as “Precious” surprised the heavily favored “Up in the Air” last year. The heart is a factor in this category, and the heart belongs to “Toy Story 3.”

“127 Hours” soars to #3 thanks to its recognition by the BFCA and the Golden Globes in spite of my prior qualms that it wasn’t a movie that succeeded because of its writing. But if Danny Boyle can’t get a Best Director nomination, it sure looks like he will get one for Best Adapted Screenplay.

“Winter’s Bone” has been collecting plenty of screenplay nominations along the critics circuit, and it seems like a solid choice for a nomination.

“True Grit” slips to #5 and only stays in because the Academy loves the Coen Brothers’ writing. If “The Town” shows some might, it could easily replace the Western.

So, what do YOU think? Who do you think is cruising towards an Oscar nomination?

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Tags: Christian Bale, Colin Firth, David Fincher, Inception, Melissa Leo, Natalie Portman, Oscar Moment, The Social Network
Categories : 2010 - Oscar Moment, Oscar Moment

Oscar Moment: December 10, 2010 Awards Round-Up

10 12 2010

Welcome back to another exciting awards round-up post! It’s been a whole week since I’ve said anything about the Oscars, which is the longest I’ve gone since September! It’s a good thing this week has been pretty stagnant aside from a few minor critics groups and some top 10 lists out in the mix.

Please remember to take the poll at the end of the discussion! It will help to make these posts more community-driven – it’s fun just reading it and writing about it, but I sure do enjoy it more when I get your feedback! You don’t have to live and breath Oscars like I do to take part!

As for last week’s poll, you all think that “The Social Network” will beat “The King’s Speech” for Best Picture. And by you all, I mean all one voter that took the poll. So let’s shoot for higher this week!

(And another reminder: I spent a lot of time linking the titles of movies in this post to their respective Oscar Moments/reviews if you want to know more about them. So don’t hesitate to click!)

Awards

Washington, D.C. Film Critics announce. Generally not a very exciting bunch; Kris Tapley of In Contention said their picks are usually just guessing what the Oscars will nominated in about 7 weeks. Like myself and several others, they think “The Social Network” is going to be the cup that the Academy sips from when picking their awards.

Their Best Picture line-up was absolutely stellar though: “Black Swan,” “Inception,” “127 Hours,” “The Social Network,” and “Toy Story 3.” If those were Oscar’s five (way back when they only nominated that many movies for Best Picture), I would be a very happy man. Since many are already boiling the race down to a horserace, it’s curious not to see “The King’s Speech,” but it got plenty of love, including a win for Best Actor for Colin Firth and Best Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, and Original Screenplay nominations.

Jennifer Lawrence took Best Actress for “Winter’s Bone,” which definitely showed some strength from the win as well as nominations for Supporting Actor (John Hawkes) and Adapted Screenplay. I think we could definitely be looking at a critical favorite in Lawrence, although this is a very similar trajectory to Carey Mulligan last year who wound up not taking home any major prizes.

Predictable wins for Christian Bale and Melissa Leo in “The Fighter” in the supporting categories, with the former looking more and more like a lock with each passing day. “The Social Network” also won Best Director and Adapted Screenplay, neither of which was surprising given the group’s love for the film.

Interestingly, “Inception” won Best Original Screenplay over the field of “The King’s Speech,” “The Kids Are All Right,” “Another Year,” and “Black Swan.” This category has played out interestingly at the Oscars over the past two years. 2009 brought us “The Hurt Locker” ultimately triumphing over “Inglourious Basterds” with “Up” as a dark horse looming in the background. 2008 was the horse race between two totally different types of movies, “Milk” and the almost non-verbal “Wall-E.” Given what’s been going on recently, “Inception” makes a fascinating wild card. “The King’s Speech” is like past winner “Milk,” and “The Kids Are All Right” gives off “Juno” vibes. There hasn’t been a movie like “Inception” in the race in a long time (unless you want to compare it to the mind maze of “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind”).

For a historical reference point, last year the group picked “Up in the Air” as their Best Picture. Aside from the slam dunk supporting categories, the only Oscar winner they selected was Kathryn Bigelow as Best Director for “The Hurt Locker.” Since 2002, they haven’t been a very reliable predictor at all of the ultimate selections of the Oscars.

For a full list of nominees, see the official press release from the WAFCA.

The British Independent Film Awards. Predictably, “The King’s Speech” cleaned house at the British Independent Film Awards, the equivalent of the Independent Spirit Awards across the pond. The very British story of King George VI took home Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, and Best Screenplay. Curiously, director Tom Hooper lost Best Director to Gareth Edwards for his work on the ultra-low budget “Monsters.” Mike Leigh was also nominated for “Another Year” in this category.

These awards don’t really show us much other than that the British are firmly allied over their love of this movie. Last year, “Moon” triumphed over eventual Best Picture nominee “An Education,” the movie considered to have the “British vote” going into the Oscars. This faction will be crucial to “The King’s Speech” if it is to prevail in the Best Picture category, and this is a very reassuring ceremony for the movie.

Also worth noting: “Never Let Me Go” may be almost entirely forgotten, but apparently Carey Mulligan isn’t. She won Best Actress for her performance, and I still wouldn’t count her out as a dark horse Oscar nominee. I don’t think a Golden Globe nomination is entirely out of the question (a la Tobey Maguire in last year’s “Brothers“).

The European Film Awards. Not much to report here as the only awards contender really in play was “The Ghost Writer,” and it capitalized on its seven nominations by winning a stunning six categories. Lesley Manville was in contention for “Another Year” but lost Best European Actress to an actress I’ve never heard of in a movie I’ve never heard of.

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Tags: Annette Bening, How to Train Your Dragon, Inception, Natalie Portman, Nicole Kidman, Scott Pilgrim vs. The World, The Ghost Writer, The Kids Are All Right, The King's Speech, The Social Network, Winter's Bone
Categories : 2010 - Oscar Moment, Oscar Moment

Random Factoid #495

5 12 2010

We’ve been doing some debates in my Economics class over certain hot-button issues (bailouts, Social Security), and the sessions always end with an open forum for those not participating to throw questions at the debaters. I’ve been particularly bold, throwing out questions that aren’t easy to answer without the debaters sacrificing their cause to avoid looking like a villain. It’s earned me a certain … reputation, if you will indulge me.

So, who do I have to thank for this? Two movie characters who I’d like to thank with this post:

Marylin Delpy (Rashida Jones) in “The Social Network.” Chances are you don’t know the character’s name off the top of your head; I sure didn’t. Yet her impact in David Fincher’s “The Social Network” is so crucial, particularly in her final scene with the vulnerable Zuckerberg. She speaks to her abilities to sway a jury in even the simplest of manners. Delpy talks specifically about the power of the question; even if you can’t prove something, you can get a jury thinking about it by merely suggesting it. A question has a power to sway anything even if that person has the right answer. You can get them on how they phrase that answer, how long it takes them to come up with their answer, how eloquently they deliver their answer.

Nick Naylor (Aaron Eckhart) in “Thank You For Smoking.” Obviously, the smooth-talking lobbyist with a swagger all of his own is the main influence though. As Naylor puts it, “Michael Jordan plays ball. Charles Manson kills people. I talk. Everyone has a talent.” His pointed way of phrasing questions and insatiable desire to be right has definitely been very influential, as well as blending wrong and right to form this vast gray area through which Naylor walks comfortably. As he says, “If I prove that you’re wrong, I’m right.” It’s an interesting ideology, and one that can be debated over its correctness. However, I have definitely learned from Naylor that if you are looking to quickly win an important argument, the quickest way to sway the tide in your direction is by proving the other person wrong.

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Tags: Nick Naylor, Random Factoid, Rashida Jones, Thank You for Smoking, The Social Network
Categories : Random Factoids

Oscar Moment: December 3, 2010 Awards Round-Up

3 12 2010

Welcome to the first ever Awards Round-Up post! With the Oscar season officially kicked off, there’s just not enough time for me to cover every event and every development in real time, so I’ve devised this Friday post to cover everything that happens until the curtain rises at the Kodak Theater on February 27. (Take a look at this awards season calendar, conveniently compiled by the folks at Entertainment Weekly.)

I’m attaching a poll to the end of this post, and I ask you to please vote. My goal is to post the results on next week’s round-up and keep the cycle going. The poll will relate to the “discussion” at the end of the post.

So … let’s begin.

Awards

National Board of Review announces. Yesterday, the historic kick-off of the season took place with the announcement of the year’s best from the National Board of Review, a “selective group of knowledgeable film enthusiasts, academics, film professionals, and students” in New York that reflect a wide range of interests.

In 2010, they clearly liked “The Social Network,” awarding in four major prizes, including Best Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay, three categories it is considered a frontrunner for at the Oscars. However, they gave a massive boost to the campaign of Jesse Eisenberg for Best Actor, who has a likely nominee but by no means certain due to his age. The NBR is usually a good indicator of Academy tastes in this category; their winner went on to be nominated 70% of the past decade and won 40%.

Another big winner was Mike Leigh’s “Another Year,” making the group’s top 10 list as well as picking up a Best Actress win for Lesley Manville. The movie’s support, initially through the roof, has grown tepid over the past few months, and these awards could indicate we are looking at a critical darling. Leigh’s movies often rack up these critics groups awards, and Manville could gain some thunder in the next month.

More on Sony Pictures Classics’ push to get Jacki Weaver’s performance in “Animal Kingdom” into contention later, but it appears to have paid off with a Best Supporting Actress win here. This category matched up with the Academy 6 out of the last 10 years, so things look good for Weaver. The NBR got the ball rolling for Amy Ryan, an unknown who marched into an Oscar nomination on virtually unanimous support; we could be looking at a similar storyline here.

Their top 10 list was nothing too out of left field as long as you know the NBR is obsessed with Clint Eastwood and lavishes excessive awards on his movies, so don’t look much into the inclusion of “Hereafter.” The list was mostly expected contenders with the encouraging inclusion of “Shutter Island” and “The Town,” two commercial powerhouses which may prove to be a threat to the established order.

As for exclusions, “The Kids Are All Right,” “Black Swan,” “Rabbit Hole,” “Blue Valentine,” and “127 Hours” were nowhere to be found. The exclusion of the latter is the most shocking since Danny Boyle’s “Slumdog Millionaire” won Best Picture from the NBR back in 2008. With the exception of Lisa Cholodenko’s comedy, all the other movies were fairly dark and gritty, which is not always well-received by the NBR.

This is a group notorious for high-profile exclusions, some indicative of where the race is going and others completely misguided. “Precious,” “The Reader,” “There Will Be Blood,” and “The Queen” are some of the recent Best Picture nominees to be overlooked; the last winner to be snubbed was “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King.” Then again, they’ve sent some messages by passing up heavily favored front-runners which ultimately fell short like “Nine” and and “Dreamgirls.”

Here is the abridged winners’ list:

Best Film: “The Social Network”

Best Director: David Fincher, “The Social Network”

Best Actor: Jesse Eisenberg, “The Social Network”

Best Actress: Lesley Manville, “Another Year”

Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, “The Fighter”

Best Supporting Actress: Jacki Weaver, “Animal Kingdom”

Best Adapted Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin, “The Social Network”

Best Original Screenplay: Chris Sparling, “Buried”

Best Foreign Language Film: “Of Gods and Men”

Best Documentary: “Waiting for Superman”

Best Animated Feature: “Toy Story 3″

Best Ensemble Cast: “The Town”

Breakthrough Performance: Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone”

Ten Best Films
“Another Year”
“The Fighter”
“Hereafter”
“Inception”
“The King’s Speech”
“Shutter Island”
“The Town”
“Toy Story 3″
“True Grit”
“Winter’s Bone”

The Gotham Awards. A pretty minor awards ceremony with little relevance to the Oscars, the Gotham Awards have never been a very good predictor of Oscar tastes simply because it strictly limits itself to American independent film. But their awards were more significant than usual.

Their 2010 pick for Best Feature was “Winter’s Bone,” the gritty Sundance favorite. It’s a significant victory because of the competition that it beat out. This category included heavyweights like “Black Swan,” “Blue Valentine,” and “The Kids Are All Right,” all of which have been in the thick of Best Picture discussion for quite some time. This could really mark the rise of “Winter’s Bone” to a strong Best Picture contender; last year’s winner was “The Hurt Locker,” and we all know how that turned out. (And for the record, it also beat out “The Kids Are All Right” for Best Ensemble Performance.)

Sight and Sound. “The Social Network” took home Best Picture of 2010 from the British publication Sight and Sound, a very respected film magazine. This might not be so significant if their past selections weren’t so incredibly artistic that 99% of the American population hasn’t heard of them. “Brokeback Mountain,” the 2005 indie darling that almost took Best Picture, was the last American movie to top their top 10 list. I think this victory means that “The Social Network” has incredible crossover appeal between the art-house theater and the multiplex that can’t be underestimated, which is what makes it such an appealing choice for the Academy’s Best Picture.

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Tags: 127 Hours, Inception, National Board of Review, The King's Speech, The Social Network, Winter's Bone
Categories : 2010 - Oscar Moment, Oscar Moment

Oscar Moment: Final Preseason Predictions!

1 12 2010

It’s time! The guessing is about to be over, so I figured I’d take my final stab at Oscar’s picks before the critics groups and guilds exert their influence over the race.

Past predictions: November 2010, September 2010.

Best Picture:

Dropping off: How Do You Know

Little change in the “TSN”/”TKS” dialectic as I still believe their duel will be the story of the season and that David Fincher’s Facebook movie will win out. Other than that, the job of a prognosticator is to distinguish the dark horses from those just lucky to populate the top 10.

Noticeably different from the lineup a month ago is the position of “Black Swan,” which has received some massive praise in large amounts. I’m just really feeling the love for this movie right now, and while it may just be a movie for the critics groups, I think the emphasis on its artistic achievement will push it through.

As for other motions on the chart, “Inception” moves up as the DVD release gives it an uptick; how much the movie can run with it, though, is yet to be determined. “127 Hours” moves down because I just don’t feel the passion for it has been able to sustain.

“True Grit” falls as reviews make it out to be great but nothing to stop the presses like ‘The Social Network” did, and since the Coens have already directed a Best Picture winner, the movie stands in a big shadow. And I’ve never felt secure on “The Kids Are All Right” simply because it just seems too assumed, too “its a well-reviewed social commentary and comedy so it’s in” to be a safe bet. The public didn’t quite catch on, and its DVD release didn’t revive much passion.

“Winter’s Bone” charts for the first time as it seems to be the “anointed indie” of 2010 after its triumph at the Gotham Awards and it led the pack of Indie Spirit award nominations (more on Friday.)

Best Director:

David Fincher, “The Social Network”
Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech”
Darren Aronofsky, “Black Swan” (4)
Christopher Nolan, “Inception” (3)
Danny Boyle, “127 Hours”

Not much going on here other than the flop in positions of Aronofsky and Nolan. For me, this is a stagnant category and not much will change unless the Coen Brothers knock out one of the bottom 3.

Best Actor:

Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech” (2)
James Franco, “127 Hours” (1)
Jesse Eisenberg, “The Social Network”
Robert Duvall, “Get Low” (NR)
Ryan Gosling, “Blue Valentine”

Dropping off: Mark Wahlberg

Although I don’t agree with the commonly held conception that “The King’s Speech” will be the big winner of 2010’s Oscar race, I do think it will have a nice trophy haul. The voters like this movie, and they want to give it some reward other than Best Picture. Thus, Colin Firth, the very likable and talented performer, gets Best Actor as a testament to the film’s power. I can see it playing out much like 2008 when “Milk” took home Best Actor for Sean Penn and Best Original Screenplay. James Franco may just be too young to win (and he gets to host the show.)

Eisenberg stays at position #3, a safe bet for now but could be dislodged if little support is thrown his way. Duvall reenters as Bridges/Wahlberg praise has been relatively muted amidst the raves for their movies. “The Fighter” and “True Grit” will get their chance in the Supporting categories, both with a good shot at the win. There’s the sentimental Peter O’Toole in “Venus” vote going for him here, although it does hurt that he’s won before.

And I still stick with Gosling simply because I stand to my guns on this movie being rewarded for its raw acting. But I realize that the Academy could pull a “Revolutionary Road” on us and nominate neither he or Williams because the material is too depressing.

Best Actress:

Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
Annette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right”
Nicole Kidman, “Rabbit Hole”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone” (NR)
Michelle Williams, “Blue Valentine” (4)

Dropping off: Lesley Manville

Little change here as well. I stil think this is Portman’s year, and she will run away with it. Perhaps certain organizations where sentimental votes really count will choose Bening, but I think the Academy knows an incredible, transformative performance when they see one. To quote my own review of “Black Swan” in a shameless plug, “Portman absolutely disappears into her character. It’s a shocking and startling transformation due to Portman’s dedication to learning the craft of ballet and her impeccable acting.”

Kidman stays stagnant, and Michelle Williams is forced down a rung by the force of Jennifer Lawrence, an actress whose chances I was very cynical about (as shown by her fall off the chart from September to November). But now I think I’m sure that she’s the real deal, although if “Winter’s Bone” falters in awards season, I may retract that statement. I was hesitant to place her in my top 5 because she is so young; if nominated, Lawrence will be the second-youngest nominee ever at 19 years of age. But she could easily be the Carey Mulligan of 2010, the breakout star no one can deny. I doubt she could topple Portman or Bening, but I wouldn’t rule her out as the year’s critical darling.

Best Supporting Actor:

Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech”
Matt Damon, “True Grit” (NR)
Andrew Garfield, “The Social Network” (3)
Jeremy Renner, “The Town” (NR)

Dropping off: Aaron Eckhart, Sam Rockwell

Since I last updated these predictions, people actually saw “The Fighter” and confirmed my suspicion that Christian Bale would steamroll his way through awards season. He has the respect to get there (despite his temper), and he is deserving. Paramount will easily be able to make the case that this is “his time.” Apologies to Geoffrey Rush, but your time was in 1996 when you won Best Actor.

Matt Damon makes his first appearance on the list as good word gets around about his performance in “True Grit,” replacing Sam Rockwell, who isn’t very good in the fairly pathetic “Conviction.”

My bad for the category fraud – I assumed Aaron Eckhart would be campaigned in Best Supporting Actor after reading a piece by Dave Karger. But according to the FYC ads, I’m wrong, and he will be rightfully campaigned in the leading category. With passion for Andrew Garfield’s performance seemingly slipping but nonetheless still present, who should fill that last slot? I still think the men problem of “The Kids Are All Right” will keep Mark Ruffalo out again (unfortunately).

My pick is Jeremy Renner. There’s a whole lot of good will for “The Town,” although I still dobut it has enough to crack the Best Picture shortlist. The good feelings for the movie could translate into a surprise acting nomination, much like Maggie Gyllenhaal found herself in the Best Supporting Actress race without any prior attention when “Crazy Heart” wasn’t nominated for Best Picture. Jeremy Renner, a nominee for last year’s “The Hurt Locker,” is really emerging as a big star, and what better way to mint him as a mainstream actor than nominate him in consecutive years? This would prove him to be more than just a one-hit wonder, and it’s one way they could honor “The Town.”

Best Supporting Actress:

Hailee Steinfeld, “True Grit” (3)
Helena Bonham Carter, “The King’s Speech” (5)
Melissa Leo, “The Fighter” (1)
Amy Adams, “The Fighter” (NR)
Dianne Weist, “Rabbit Hole” (4)

Dropping off: Miranda Richardson

I can’t wait for precursor season to start so we can GET SOME CLARITY ON THIS CATEGORY! We have been wandering in the wilderness for months upon months now with everyone offering guesses, not predictions. So my final guess is Hailee Steinfeld, the tenacious youngin of “True Grit.” If the Academy wants to reward the movie with a trophy, this could be the simplest place to do it. The socialism of the Oscars isn’t something dependable, but it happens enough to factor in to predictions.

With “The King’s Speech” taken care of in Best Actor, Helena Bonham Carter doesn’t pose much of a threat. Ditto for Melissa Leo and Amy Adams, who will cede the carrying of the torch for “The Fighter” to Christian Bale. I doubt Dianne Weist has a legitimate shot at winning since she has taken this category twice. Can you picture her next to Jack Nicholson as the premier Oscar-winning actors of a generation? I can’t.

Best Original Screenplay:

The King’s Speech
The Kids Are All Right
Inception
Another Year
Black Swan

Finally, some commentary on the screenplay race that you’ve been craving since September. Don’t lie, this is exciting to you.

While “Inception” and “The Kids Are All Right” are undoubtedly the most original of the bunch, this seems to be a category for “The King’s Speech” simply because of the broad acclaim the movie has received. If the Academy is looking for a place to reward the movie other than Best Picture, this is another easy way they can elevate its statue count above the winner of the Best Documentary Short. With a good shot at several technicals, “The King’s Speech” could walk away with three trophies while “The Social Network” takes the requisite four (Picture, Director, Screenplay, Editing).

“Black Swan” glides in on the movie’s success, although I don’t think the screenplay was particularly fantastic. It could easily be overlooked in favor of another independent selection. And “Another Year,” which seems to have fallen from grace since its Cannes premiere, hangs on in Best Original Screenplay because Mike Leigh movies always get nominated here.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Rabbit Hole
Winter’s Bone

If “The Social Network” should be eclipsed by “The King’s Speech,” it should still take Best Adapted Screenplay without a hitch. Aaron Sorkin’s genius script will probably be the movie’s most appealing offering over the season, and this category seems to seal the deal for the Facebook flick to score at least one Oscar. Then again, we said the same thing about “Up in the Air,” and then “Precious” came out of nowhere to steal.

“Toy Story 3” is probably the movie most likely to take down Sorkin, if that’s even possible. The minds at Pixar have been ever so close to a Screenplay win for 15 years; it may be too soon to give them Best Picture, but why not Best Adapted Screenplay? It’s a step in the right direction towards a time when a movie will not be discriminated against and excluded from the Best Picture race just for being animated, foreign, or a documentary.

The Coen Brothers always get nominated for their writing, and they’ve won twice. So chances that they get in for “True Grit” are very high. “Rabbit Hole” slides in because the category seems to be trending towards theatrical adaptations. If “Doubt” can get in for a word-for-word adaptation, David Lindsey-Abaire’s cinematic reimagining shouldn’t have a problem garnering a nomination.

As for the final slot, I choose indie darling “Winter’s Bone” over “127 Hours” simply because it feels more literary. Danny Boyle’s movie isn’t very scripted; the magic comes from Franco.

What are your thoughts heading into the season? Am I right on “The Social Network?” Am I missing something?

Comments : 1 Comment »
Tags: Black Swan, Christian Bale, Colin Firth, David Fincher, Hailee Steinfeld, Natalie Portman, Oscar Predictions, The Fighter, The King's Speech, The Social Network, True Grit
Categories : 2010 - Oscar Moment, Oscar Moment

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