All is looking good for Deborah Granik and Jennifer Lawrence, two people who you likely hadn’t heard of before this post and almost assuredly hadn’t heard of before this year.
Granik started off 2010 premiering her film, “Winter’s Bone,” at the Sundance Film Festival to massive acclaim. It won the Grand Jury Prize for dramatic films, a very prestigious award, and was bought by Roadside Attractions for $500,000. It was released last Friday, June 11, to outstanding critical reception – a 90% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes and an outstanding 87 on Metacritic.
Looking at the last two winners of the dramatic Grand Jury Prize might show us some potential fates for “Winter’s Bone.” 2009’s recipient was “Precious” (then known by the name of its source material, “Push”), and the 2008 winner was “Frozen River.”
“Precious” had more than just the Grand Jury Prize going for it coming out of Sundance. It won the Audience Award as well, showing how popular it was with everyone who attended the festival (Mo’Nique also won the first of many prizes for her role in the movie). It also got the sizzle and added press from its support by Tyler Perry and Oprah Winfrey. “Winter’s Bone,” on the other hand, has a release with as little grandeur as its setting in the Ozark Mountains. “Precious” went on to make nearly $50 million and score a stunning 91% on Rotten Tomatoes and a very good 79 on Metacritic. As we all know, it received Best Picture nominations from the Golden Globes and Oscars, winning 2 Academy Awards on Hollywood’s biggest night.
I see more parallels with “Frozen River,” the decidedly unglamorous and gritty tale of a desperate mother (Melissa Leo) who illegally smuggles people across the U.S border with Canada. After winning the Grand Jury Prize, it was picked up by Sony Pictures Classics (an expert in marketing independent movies) for $500,000. They opened the movie in late August to tepid audience reaction, opening with a fairly weak $10,000 per theater average, a statistic that shows that theaters weren’t exactly packed. Critical reception was much more positive, showed by its 88% on Rotten Tomatoes and 82 on Metacritic. But at the end of the year, people remembered “Frozen River.” It picked up momentum as the season dragged on, beginning with a surprising SAG nomination for Leo that eventually led to an Oscar nomination over the favored Sally Hawkins. Leo’s strength undoubtedly helped Courtney Hunt’s screenplay get into the Best Original Screenplay fold as well.
I’m inclined to say “Winter’s Bone” will take the “Frozen River” path mainly because they have very similar, dark tones, a strong female performance, and a well-written script (“Winter’s Bone” picked up a screenwriting award at Sundance). But the per theater average was nearly double that of “Frozen River,” so perhaps it will have a little bit more audience support to carry it through. I’m just really not expecting it to receive a massive outpouring like “Precious” because it is “one of the unshowiest and most true-blooded epics of Americana you’re ever likely to see,” according to Entertainment Weekly‘s Lisa Schwarzbaum (who gave it an A).
The movie’s leading lady, Jennifer Lawrence, just screams “this year’s Carey Mulligan.” Even younger than last year’s Best Actress nominee at 19, Lawrence has been a huge talking point of the movie. Her breakout role has garnered her large attention from the media, leading to a spotlight from Esquire with a fairly steamy photo shoot.
Granik gave Vera Farmiga her big break with her debut feature, “Down to the Bone,” for which she was nominated for an Independent Spirit Award and won Best Actress from the Los Angeles Film Critics Association. Don’t quote me on this, but I’m fairly certain that Jason Reitman has stated that seeing her in “Down to the Bone” led to her casting in “Up in the Air,” the movie that got her Golden Globe, SAG, and Oscar nominations. So while it remains suspect how much love Lawrence will receive for this particular role, all signs point to a promising future for the young performer.
BEST BETS FOR NOMINATIONS: Best Actress (Lawrence), Best Adapted Screenplay
OTHER POTENTIAL NOMINATIONS: Best Picture, Best Director (Granik)
Marshall and the Movies 
This movie is starting to achieve an Inception type excitment for me. I thought Lawrence was wonderful in The Burning Plain last year, and from what I’ve read, she’s a heavy favorite to get a nomination this year.
“An Inception type excitement” – if you are anticipating it anywhere near as much as I am, those are some big words to throw around. I think Lawrence could pull it off if she got some good ink, but it might be hard given that Roadside Attractions doesn’t have the money to run an extravagant campaign for her.
Oh believe me, I’m tickled with excitement for Inception. I don’t think I have anticipated a movie this much since TDK, ironicly enough.
But Winter’s Bone is right behind it. This just seems like a movie that would sit very well with me.
Because of “Down to the Bone,” featuring the wonderous Vera Farmiga, I cannot wait for this. I’m seeing it the minute it pops up in Charlotte.