How do you solve a problem like “The Blind Side?”
Today, the crowd-pleasing movie crossed $200 million at the box office. This is a number that cannot be ignored – people love this movie. Only 17% of its take has come from opening weekend, a towering statistic which shows that the movie has survived on repeat business and word of mouth. The movie has inspired and excited Americans, and the buzz even led to a full-hour special on “20/20” last night. So, we have to wonder, is this a dark horse Best Picture candidate?
The movie could be buoyed to the top by Sandra Bullock. Her year, which also included the smash hit “The Proposal,” has earned her attention and raves. Her performance in “The Blind Side” has brought nominations from major groups such as the Golden Globes (who also cited her for “The Proposal” in comedy), the Broadcast Film Critics Association, and the Screen Actors Guild. But is Bullock enough?
The movie stands at a decent 72% on Rotten Tomatoes, but there is a wide discrepancy between top critics (58%) and average moviegoers (93%). Critics don’t decided a movie’s awards success; however, they do have a very large impact. The critical champions of “The Blind Side” don’t seem to be incredibly passionate or fervent about it. In fact, most of them that do like it simply cite that it made them feel good and not much else.
Here’s where it gets tough: trying to decipher voter mentality. It’s hard to tell what the Oscar voters are thinking about their ballots this year. We haven’t seen a year with ten Best Picture nominees in decades, so no one can be sure what to expect. Are we looking at one of the most unconventional lineups in memory? Or are we just going to be getting the same humdrum Oscar bait movies filling out the field?
If the voters want to choose something that made them feel good, “The Blind Side” might find their way onto some ballots. I might not have been as inspired as some, but what better testament to the power of cinema is there than a film that has the ability to move you? In addition, if the voters want to dispel accusations that their selections are pretentious and removed from the general feeling of the American populace in general, “The Blind Side” might seem a natural beneficiary. It is a movie that shows how far a random act of kindness can go, and Americans love these heartwarming stories.
BEST BETS FOR NOMINATIONS: Best Actress
OTHER POSSIBLE NOMINATIONS: Best Picture
I’ve held off as long as I could on issuing my predictions, but now I simply cannot wait. It is December and Oscar season is about to kick into high gear.
This edition of “Oscar Moment” concerns one of the favorites since last year’s Oscars finished. People have huge expectations for “Nine,” and if it fails to live up to them, the repercussions could be disastrous. It has every reason to succeed, though, based on a pedigree so impressive that it could be never be matched again. It has been a favorite in the Oscar race ever since it was announced; however, at the time of this posting, it remains a wild card in the race because no one has seen the full film yet.
So if Cotillard goes lead, who will be the nominee(s) for Best Supporting Actress? Despite all the talent, history tells us that “Nine” will probably be limited to two nominees in the category. Only “Tom Jones” in 1963 managed to sneak in three women; that movie won 4 Oscars including Best Picture. More notable though is that it did not collect the statue for Best Supporting Actress. The loss is due to a familiar phenomenon: vote splitting. It is how “Dreamgirls” and “Enchanted” managed to lose Best Original Song. Voters want to reward the movie, but they can’t rally behind a single nominee and someone else wins. But luckily for “Nine,” Harvey Weinstein has played this game many times. My guess is that he will start campaigning all the actresses evenly, but as more reviews come in and people see the movie, he will push the clear favorite.
At this time, the favorite is unknown. But based on the Broadway productions of the musical, an educated guess can be formed. In the original Broadway production, the Tony Award winner for Best Featured Actress was Liliane Montevecchi for her portrayal of Lilliane, Guido’s producer. In the movie, Liliane will be played by Judi Dench, who won this category back in 1998 for playing Queen Elizabeth for all of six minutes in “Shakespeare in Love.” Dench also has 5 other nominations, only one of which came from the supporting category. However, the research I have done seems to suggest that Lilliane is not a very flashy role. She does not have a solo song, and even if she is an integral part of other numbers, that seems to suggests that she is more of a subtle presence than a central part of the plot. (This is my interpretation from three years of musical theater experience.)
The remaining prospects left to touch on are Sophia Loren, who plays Guido’s mother, and Nicole Kidman, who plays Claudia, the star of Guido’s new movie. Guido’s mother barely appears in the plot summary anywhere, so I can only see a nomination plausible for Loren if the Academy falls head over heels for “Nine” and nominates Loren for nostalgic purposes. Although I will say, Guido’s mother sings the titular track “Nine,” and it is the sweet thing that melts voters. Claudia, on the other hand, has several beautiful numbers with Guido. Nicole Kidman has shown her capability with handling musicals – in fact, it’s how she got her first Academy Award nomination. But as for being an audience or critical favorite, Claudia has seem to have fallen short on Broadway. The role was only nominated for one major award, the slightly less prestigious Drama Desk, during its two runs on the Great White Way. I am most excited to see how this story plays out; that is, if audiences treasure Kidman especially or if she plays second fiddle to the other actresses like on stage.
Marshall and the Movies 
Recent Comments