Oscar Moment: “The American”

24 08 2010

I really have no idea what to say about “The American,” but I know there has to be something to say.

Looking at the poster, we see a giant George Clooney.  That’s what Focus Features wants you to see because the rest of the poster (and the trailers as well) give you zero clue what the movie is supposed to be about.  He’s an assassin, as we might deduce from the gun, but no peeking at plot has given me any insight into the events of the movie.  Which may be just what Focus wants.  Hey, I’m not complaining about a movie shrouded in mystery.

In the past five years, Clooney has become a dominant force in Oscar season.  With three nominations for acting under his belt since 2005 (four if you count his Best Director nomination); the only people to match that total in the same amount of time are Philip Seymour Hoffman, Cate Blanchett, Penelope Cruz, and the legendary Meryl Streep.  So we have to assume that anything Clooney stars in nowadays is an Oscar contender – although look at the mistake we made with “The Men Who Stare At Goats.”  If the Best Actor field is particularly weak this year, the Academy could easily sneak in a familiar face like Clooney.

The cast may become an issue in awards season.  The problem isn’t that the movie stars George Clooney; it’s that the movie stars George Clooney and no one else you’ve ever heard of before.  “The American” is being sold almost entirely on Clooney, a little bit on Corbijn for those whose moviegoing tastes are far enough off the beaten path to recognize his name.  So if Clooney isn’t at the top of his game, the whole movie’s chances may be derailed.

This is just Anton Corbijn’s second film, but he’s been behind the camera for quite a while, making music videos for groups as well known as Nirvana and U2.  Prior to that, he spent time behind a different lens doing music photography.  He still keeps up his first profession, albeit as a hobby, chronicling the production of “The American.”  Corbijn kept up a photo blog during production, posting some really interesting shots.  In the very near future, he will release them in a picture book called “Inside The American.”

His first feature, “Control,” about the lead singer of the band Joy Division, premiered at Cannes in 2007 to great reviews.  It opened theatrically later that year to very respectable critical marks, a 78 on Metacritic and an 87% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes.  Across the pond in Britain, it won Best Film and Best Director among others at their equivalent of the Indie Spirit Awards, the British Independent Film Awards.

Despite these laurels, “Control” didn’t exactly ignite here, failing to earn a release over 30 theaters or a revenue over $1 million.  Not that money really matters that much, especially in the context of a directorial debut.  Last year’s Oscar winner for Best Director, Kathryn Bigelow, made only $3 million with her first film, “Near Dark,” in 1987.

The bar has been set high, at least in terms of quality, for Corbijn’s follow-up.  First films usually don’t receive much notice at the Oscars, the rare exception coming, ironically, for the George Clooney vehicle “Michael Clayton,” which received nominations for Best Picture and Best Director for Tony Gilroy.  Second films, however, have been able to gain traction.  Let’s look at last year’s Best Director nominees and their second films.

  • Winner Kathryn Bigelow made her second film, “Near Dark,” in 1987.  A vampire movie can become a cult favorite, but it’s certainly very hard to take seriously as an Oscar movie.
  • James Cameron made his second film, “The Terminator,” in 1984.  Wildly under-appreciated at the time, it’s now a classic, enshrined in the National Film Registry.
  • Quentin Tarantino made his second film, “Pulp Fiction,” in 1994.  It is considered by some to be a watershed movie in the history of independent film and got Tarantino an Oscar nomination for his directorial work.  The movie also won Best Original Screenplay and was nominated for Best Picture.
  • Jason Reitman made his second film, “Juno,” in 2007.  The movie was nominated for Best Picture, and Reitman was a surprise announcement for a Best Director nomination.
  • Lee Daniels made his second film, “Precious,” in 2009.  The movie was nominated for Best Picture, and Daniels was nominated for Best Director.

See, it does happen!  Second films have found great success, both for the movie and for the director.  The question is whether “The American” will trod the glorious path in 2010 or march its way into (potentially momentary) obscurity.  There has yet to be a review of the movie, so the path truly is unknown.

BEST BETS FOR NOMINATIONS: Best Actor (George Clooney)

OTHER POSSIBLE NOMINATIONS: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Cinematography


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Categories : 2010 - Oscar Moment, Oscar Moment

Oscar Moment: “The Town”

18 08 2010

Since posting my September preview, comments have poured in speculating about Ben Affleck’s latest directorial venture, “The Town.”  Most people have compared it to his first film, “Gone Baby Gone.”  But is that a good thing?

“Gone Baby Gone” has a 94% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes, but the only traction it gained during awards season was for Amy Ryan’s powerful supporting performance.  There are a few assorted nods to Ben Affleck’s skill on his first film, but nothing distinguishing him in a category with every other movie.  It’s worth noting that while Ryan was a critics’ association favorite, she didn’t win the Globe, SAG, or Oscar.

So are we just looking at one impressive performance from “The Town” to keep it in contention?  It has a nice cast including Golden Globe winner Jon Hamm, Golden Globe nominee Rebecca Hall, Oscar nominees Jeremy Renner and Pete Postlethwhaite, Oscar winner Chris Cooper, and Affleck himself (oh, and Blake Lively for looks).

I’d say if there were a potentially nomination-worthy performance from the bunch, it would probably be from either Hamm for crossing over from the small screen well or Renner for another good work.  If the Academy really loves him and wants to make him a marquee name, another nomination would surely help.  Nominations in consecutive years aren’t uncommon and really telling of Academy tastes.  Over the past decade, the only people to have pulled it off are Penelope Cruz, Meryl Streep, Cate Blanchett, Judi Dench, Renee Zellweger, Nicole Kidman, Russell Crowe, Philip Seymour Hoffman, and Johnny Depp.  Only the latter doesn’t have a nice golden statue resting on their mantle.

But I think the biggest question about “The Town” is the one no one can answer as of yet because no one has seen it.  Is it a bona fide Best Picture contender?

Really, the trailer is a muddled mess and just watching it did not sell me on this being one of the ten best movies of the year.  We are resting on the laurels of the people involved to call it an awards prospect.  Would I be writing this if the movie were directed by Antoine Fuqua and starred Matthew Morrison from “Glee?”

Here are my reservations about calling this a contender for the big prize.  We’ve seen studios roll out Oscar hopefuls in September, seeing if they gain enough footing in the awards race.  They reserve the big guns for November and December, and any movie that disappoints in those release slots dooms the studio.  So these mixed-bag candidates often find a home in early fall.  Usually, the movies are either action or drama with the starpower on (and perhaps off) the screen to generate buzz provided that the movie is any good.

These movies generally don’t fare well.  Here are those movies, listed for your convenience by year:

2009

  • Steven Soderbergh’s “The Informant” with Matt Damon received fairly warm reviews.  It only musters two Golden Globe nominations. (released by Warner Bros.)

2008

  • Ridley Scott’s “Body of Lies” starring Oscar winner Russell Crowe and nominee Leonardo DiCaprio receives middling reviews, clearly disappointing the high expectations associated with such names. (released by Warner Bros.)
  • “Flash of Genius” starring Greg Kinnear makes virtually no money, receives average reviews, and can’t even get a campaign push. (released by Universal)
  • Spike Lee’s “Miracle at St. Anna” receives terrible reviews and no awards come its way.  Maybe it was the 160 minute runtime… (released by Touchstone)

2007

  • “American Gangster,” released at the very beginning of November, has huge expectations with Ridley Scott as director and Oscar winners Denzel Washington and Russell Crowe pitted against each other.  Box office was great, reviews were pretty good, but the buzz just didn’t sustain.  Despite receiving nominations for Best Picture and Best Actor and the Golden Globes, the only attention it received after that was for Ruby Dee, who won the SAG and was nominated for an Oscar. (released by Universal)
  • “Rendition,” an ensemble drama about the Middle East starring Oscar winners Meryl Streep, Alan Arkin, and Reese Witherspoon as well as nominee Jake Gylenhaal, can’t even clear $10 million at the box office.  And with mixed reviews, that kind of cash doesn’t fly. (released by New Line)
  • “We Own the Night” with Mark Wahlberg and Oscar nominee Joaquin Phoenix doesn’t ignite the box office or excite the critics.  It did not have an awards season. (released by Sony)
  • “The Kingdom,” a thriller with Jamie Foxx and Jennifer Garner set in Saudi Arabia, didn’t perform well with either critics or audiences.  No awards followed.  (released by Universal)
  • “3:10 to Yuma,” a remake of a popular 1950s Western with Oscar winner Russell Crowe and Christian Bale, does very well with critics and average with audiences.  It received a surprise Best Ensemble nod from the SAG and was discussed as a potential surprise Best Picture nominee.  Ultimately, it only wound up with two technical nominations. (released by Lionsgate)

In tone, “The Town” appears to resemble “Body of Lies,” “The Kingdom,” and “American Gangster” more than any others listed above.  Only the latter of those had any success in awards season.  Affleck’s latest and “The American,” George Clooney’s latest that I’ll discuss in next week’s column, are the two September wild cards.

“The Departed,” a cop drama like “The Town,” won Best Picture in 2006, and Warner Bros. wants to remind us of that.  With a name like Martin Scorsese behind the movie, though, all buzz is instantly legitimate.  There is no speculation like there is for a Ben Affleck movie.

So, folks, are we looking at a fall flop?  Or a contender?

BEST BETS FOR NOMINATIONS: Best Supporting Actor (Jeremy Renner)

OTHER POSSIBLE NOMINATIONS: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (Jon Hamm), Best Adapted Screenplay


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Categories : 2010 - Oscar Moment, Oscar Moment

Oscar Moment: “The Social Network”

13 08 2010

Are we just a month and a half away from the release of 2010’s Best Picture?  Ask some Oscar pundits today and they might say just that.  No one has seen “The Social Network,” which hits theaters October 1, in its entirety, but people have sky-high expectations based on the brilliant marketing campaign.

The buzz started with the release of some tantalizing teaser trailers and an intriguingly mysterious poster.  When we saw the full trailer playing before “Inception,” it was a wowing experience (that would still pale in comparison to the two and a half hours afterwards).  The trailer’s opening minute is very unique as it has nothing to do with the movie at all.  Rather, we watch people interacting on Facebook, a reminder of how much it has enhanced our connections to our friends.  Then we pixelate to Mark Zuckerberg, and the history begins.

From just the trailer alone, “The Social Network” looked like a movie for our time, more clearly zeitgeist-tapping than any movie in recent memory.  It takes a dramatic look the founding of Facebook, one of the defining inventions of our time, but also seems to tackle the subject of how the social networking site has affected the way humans communicate with each other.

How much of a judgement call, though, can we make on the movie based on the trailer?

When I thought about the Oscar contenders with the best trailers over the past few years, a few names stuck out in my mind.  “Brothers.”  No nominations.  “Revolutionary Road.”  One major nomination, no Best Picture nomination.  “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.”  13 nominations including Best Picture.  It’s a mixed bag of results.  Trailers can be a sign of great things to come or merely disguise the lackluster by showing everything good to offer in two minutes.  So I don’t think we can call it a sure bet just because of the trailer.

And is being the presumed frontrunner the best thing for “The Social Network?”  I analyzed some movies in the same position last year in my Oscar Moment on “Invictus,” and here’s what I found:

The only real conclusion that can be drawn from those results is that having sky-high expectations can often yield unfavorable results.  If people expect something amazing, it is all the easier to underwhelm.

There’s a more in-depth look at the fates of these movies on that posting, but there has been a definite tendency for these movies to underperform in awards season.  This isn’t your traditional awards candidate – at least it isn’t being sold like one.

Sony is selling the movie mainly on the subject.  I bet the average American knows “The Social Network” as “The Facebook movie,” which is certainly good for drawing in an audience.  I think the premise alone draws in $80 million in revenue, but the fact that it’s going to be really good will increase its total take to somewhere in the range of $120-150 million.  I’m hardly a box office analyst, I know, yet I feel pretty confident making this financial prediction.  Judging from the amount of trailer parodies hitting the web, it’s definitely reaching the younger crowd, the most volatile demographic for movies like this.

When it comes to awards, though, money isn’t everything.  “The Social Network” has a lot working in its corner, namely director David Fincher and screenwriter Aaron Sorkin.  Fincher is a well-respected figure, earning his first Oscar nomination in 2008 for “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.”  Before that, he directed cult favorites like “Seven” and “Fight Club.”  I didn’t think that his prior resumé qualified him for a project like this, but Fincher has proven himself at being versatile in the past.

While Sorkin doesn’t have an Academy Award nomination to his name, he has earned a great deal of acclaim for his work in writing for movies, television, and the stage.  His style is greatly admired, and he is one of very few writers whose name could sell a product.  Sorkin adapted “The Social Network” from last year’s book “The Accidental Billionaires,” but Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg has written off the movie as pure fiction.  The fact that he has so vehemently denied the movie being factual only increase the intrigue around the movie.  Could there be some parts so true he doesn’t want us to know?

Those are the big names of “The Social Network,” and I think most of the praise will fall on the two of them.  Will there be any love for the actors?  Could Jesse Eisenberg, at 27, gain any heat in the Best Actor race?  If the movie winds up being the talk of the town, he could easily find himself in heavy consideration.  If he were to win, Eisenberg would be the youngest Best Actor winner ever.

Best Supporting Actor could get interesting, too.  I don’t think people can take Justin Timberlake seriously enough for a nomination, although anything can happen if the movie is huge.  The first Academy Award nominated boy band member … wouldn’t that be something.

The more likely candidate, it seems, is Andrew Garfield.  Seen him recently?  He was just cast as the new Spider-Man.  The trailer sure makes his performance seem like the kind the Academy loves, lots of screaming and shouting to be found.  Garfield also stars in awards hopeful “Never Let Me Go,” so he could receive a nomination in “The Social Network” as a reward for a great year of work from such a new actor on the scene.  Plus, how cool would it be to have an Oscar winner playing a superhero?

The first time the world gets a glimpse of the movie is at the New York Film Festival.  Until then, we wait.  And watch the trailer again … and again … and again …

BEST BETS FOR NOMINATIONS: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor (Garfield), Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Film Editing

OTHER POSSIBLE NOMINATIONS: Best Supporting Actor (Timberlake), Best Original Score


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Categories : 2010 - Oscar Moment, Oscar Moment

Oscar Moment: “Eat Pray Love”

3 08 2010

On August 13, the women get the first legitimate movie aimed at them since “Sex and the City 2.”  Rather than just looking at clothes in the high-profile bomb back in May, they can get some late summer substance from “Eat Pray Love,” the Julia Roberts-headlined adaptation of Elizabeth Gilbert’s wildly popular memoir.

Millions of women have read the book and loved it, including my own mother who at the time rarely read but holed herself up to plow through it.  Trust me when I say that women adore this book.  I’m not sure how much that fan base alone can make it commercially viable, especially because of the pretty stealth marketing campaign.  They haven’t gone out of their way to excite anyone outside their target group; very few prominent bloggers have seen it.  They really are selling it just on Elizabeth Gilbert’s book and the presence of Julia Roberts.

So what exactly does the star power of Julia Roberts mean for the Oscar hopes of “Eat Pray Love?”  Definitely a lot less than this time a decade ago, when Roberts won an Academy Award for “Erin Brockovich,” a movie she carried on her shoulders.  As Entertainment Weekly pointed out to me, this is the first time that she’s attempted the feat since.  At that same time ten years ago, she was the highest paid star in the business, claiming $20 million paychecks when they were considered exorbitant.

I don’t think a Best Actress nomination is completely out of the question for Roberts.  She has enough respect from the Academy since she has won, and after quite some time out of the spotlight while she raised her kids, a nomination would show how happy they are to have her back in full force.

In fact, these “chick lit” movies have had success scoring Best Actress nominations – as long as you are Meryl Streep.  The Academy’s forever golden girl received her last two nominations for playing characters adapted from literature, Julia Child in last year’s “Julie & Julia” and Miranda Priestly in 2006’s “The Devil Wears Prada.”  Both movies were released fairly late in the summer and boasted great box office legs (the latter finished with the higher total).

And another interesting observation: both of those movies were nominated for the Golden Globe for Best Picture, although they lost to “The Hangover” and “Dreamgirls,” respectively.  I’m not sure if “Eat Pray Love” will be pushed as a comedy, but if so, I can easily see a Best Picture nomination coming from that category.  But the big question has to be if this is a movie that can push its awards season beyond the Globes.

With ten nominations, there is definitely more of a spot for movies like “Eat Pray Love” that there has ever been.  Just look at “The Blind Side,” which was nominated last year after carving out a large audience from middle America.  These niche movies, reaching a particular group, may fare really well in the Academy’s current attitude that seems to want to represent all tastes in Best Picture.  If “Eat Pray Love” gets good reviews and makes a nice chunk of change in August, some strong marketing muscle in December and January could easily thrust it into the discussion.  And if Roberts’ performance is still remembered, then the movie could also ride in on her trail.

In the meantime, I’m looking forward to seeing a nice, quiet movie soon.  And watching all that food in Italy.

BEST BETS FOR NOMINATIONS: Best Picture, Best Actress

OTHER POSSIBLE NOMINATIONS: Best Adapted Screenplay


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Categories : 2010 - Oscar Moment, Oscar Moment

Oscar Moment: “Secretariat”

21 07 2010

“Secretariat” – it looks like a mix between Best Picture nominees “Seabiscuit” and “The Blind Side.”  Translation: someone kill me NOW!

I have now begun to hold the inspirational sports movie genre in the same regard as the romantic comedy genre, which is to say not highly.  They are so incredibly formulaic that they only serve to inspire groans now.  There’s really no way to spice up the whole “underdog comes out of nowhere and becomes a champion” storyline.  And if “Secretariat” is anything like its trailer, we are in for a story so improbable we can see the ending a mile away.  The thing about movies based on highly publicized true stories is that they don’t really have the chance to build any real suspense.

Yet I must say, the movie has several good horses in the gate for an Oscar run.  First and foremost is Diane Lane, playing the tenacious sports-loving housewife role that won Sandra Bullock an Oscar last year.  The Academy may not fall head over heels for a one-year-old rerun, but they do love Lane.  She has a prior nomination (for 2002’s “Unfaithful”), and Bullock did not have any sort of history with the Academy.  I don’t think the “she deserves it” factor will be very high with only one nomination, yet they could surprise us.

There’s also John Malkovich, the three-time nominee who is overdue for a statue.  He’s been known for his more powerful characters, and it would be strange to see them reward him for a fairly docile performance as Secretariat’s trainer.  But the ways of the Academy are strange, and if there’s a weak field, Malkovich could always squeeze in for Best Supporting Actor.  The category tends to be pretty sentimental; past years have seen winners like Morgan Freeman and Alan Arkin.

And then there’s the movie itself, which probably wouldn’t have a great chance without ten nominees in the Best Picture category.  Yet out of nowhere, the box office hit and mildly well-reviewed “The Blind Side” stunned on nomination day with a nomination.  That movie overcame its mediocrity by playing well with middle America, who doesn’t want to “get” the pompous artsy fare, and becoming a true word-of-mouth phenomenon.  It did help balance out a field of nominees that included “A Serious Man,” “Precious,” “An Education,” and “The Hurt Locker,” to make the list seem to represent the whole of 2009’s cinematic landscape.  So if “Secretariat” manages to garner good reviews and play well all over America, we can’t count it out.  (And hey, “Seabiscuit” did it with five nominees back in 2003 with half the money, although it did have slightly better reviews and a weak field.)

Then again, after “Seabiscuit,” we saw “Dreamer” with Kurt Russell and Dakota Fanning, another horse racing movie which bombed financially and critically.  So there is by no means a steady pattern in Academy taste for sports or horse racing movies.  Let’s just hope they don’t start a trend this year.

BEST BETS FOR NOMINATIONS: Best Actress (Diane Lane)

OTHER POTENTIAL NOMINATIONS: Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor (John Malkovich)


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Categories : 2010 - Oscar Moment, Oscar Moment

Oscar Moment: “Inception”

13 07 2010

Countdown to “Inception” is at T-minus 3 days.  I haven’t bought my ticket to go at midnight yet, but I plan on doing so today.

But some people don’t have to wait.  There are plenty of critics and Oscar pundits who have seen Christopher Nolan’s latest film, and I hate them all.  Just kidding!  Judging from their reactions, we have a serious Oscar contender on our hands.  The movie currently sits at a very healthy 97% on Rotten Tomatoes.  The one rotten review as of yet comes from New York Magazine‘s David Edelstein, who even concedes, “Nolan, who wrote the script, thinks like a mechanical engineer, and even when you can’t follow what’s happening, you can admire in theory the multiple, synchronized narrative arcs…”  Edelstein’s review brings down the Metacritic rating for “Inception” down 20 points, from a 97 to 77.

Although it may be too early to call, I think the critics are going to ga-ga for this movie.  All of Nolan’s movies have been certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, and I don’t think this will be any different.  Even if a sudden onslaught of negative reviews comes out of nowhere, as I talked about in my Oscar Moment on “Shutter Island,” there have been non-certified fresh Best Picture nominees.

It was only two years ago that “The Reader” with a disappointing 61% managed to steal a Best Picture slot from Nolan’s own “The Dark Knight,” which scored an impressive 94%.  Redemption will definitely be on voters’ minds as massive backlash to the Best Picture snub was very vocal.  So vocal, in fact, that it may be the biggest catalyst in the Academy’s decision to expand the field of Best Picture nominees from five to ten.  Even AMPAS President Sid Ganis said, “I’d be lying if I said ‘The Dark Knight’ didn’t come up in the discussion [to change the number of nominees].”  So a Best Picture nomination for “Inception” would be the first step in healing the wounds caused by their omission.

I think a Best Picture nomination is in the bag.  Judging from what I’ve read, the movie is good enough to get it on its own merit; the atonement factor only helps.  Film School Rejects today went as far as to predict the film’s victory in Best Picture.  Here’s some of what Cole Abaius wrote:

… In addition to being a better film than The Dark Knight, it’s also more traditionally Oscar-worthy while still being cutting edge. Theoretically, TDK was choked out of the running because it was “just a Superhero movie,” but there’s no similar sentiment here. It’s a classic-style hero’s journey featuring five Oscar nominees and two Oscar winners in front of the camera …

Kris Tapley at In Contention was a little more cautiously optimistic:

The first thing that comes to mind when I think of the history of Best Picture nominees is the fact that, on some level, they are fairly undemanding efforts.  There’s a pattern of simplicity of narrative, regardless of genre.  Now, most seem to think the general positive assessment Nolan’s film has received should be enough to get it into a field of 10 nominees, but I’m a touch skeptical.  “Inception” is anything but undemanding …

We all remember Nolan’s superhero epic did not make the cut with five slots.  And the thought process for some is, well, it’s time for AMPAS to kiss and make up.  Except that’s not the typical AMPAS thought process, and certainly not for a still youngish talent like Nolan.  I’m not here to piss in anyone’s cornflakes, but I just don’t think anyone can simplify the argument to, “It’s sure to get in with 10.”

And given that people will undoubtedly chalk up the success of “Inception” to writer/director Christopher Nolan, he will probably go along for the ride and receive a Best Director nomination.  Even if Best Picture hopes fade over the next few months, Nolan could easily stay in the discussion for director based on the visual style the movie possesses.  The decade has seen plenty of lone director nods for stylistic triumphs – David Lynch for “Mulholland Drive,” Pedro Almodovar for “Talk to Her,” Fernando Mierelles for “City of God,” Julian Schnabel for “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” – although it’s probably less likely with the expanded field.

The screenplay should find a home in the Best Original Screenplay based on the originality and creativity of its premise, even if Best Picture and Best Director fail.  Nolan wrote “Inception” himself, and he has a prior nomination from the writer’s branch for “Memento.”  And that was Christopher Nolan before he was Christopher Nolan.

Leonardo DiCaprio could be a contender in Best Actor.  He’s had a great year between this and “Shutter Island,” and particularly if the field is weak, he could sneak in with a nomination as a reward for a good body of work in 2010.  The voters would probably have to rally around this movie, though, to get him in and prevent vote splitting.

But the movie’s surest bets are easily in the technical categories.  Best Visual Effects should be a slam dunk, as should nominations in the sound categories.  I can see Best Film Editing being a very strong possibility, and Wally Pfister’s cinematography, which has earned three nominations for work on Nolan’s past movies, could easily be nominated.

In three days, we will be able to discuss “Inception” and its chances, not just speculate.  Until then, we wait, some more eagerly than others.

BEST BETS FOR NOMINATIONS: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, Best Visual Effects, Best Film Editing, Best Cinematography, Best Sound Mixing, Best Sound Editing

OTHER POTENTIAL NOMINATIONS: Best Actor (Leonardo DiCaprio)


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Categories : 2010 - Oscar Moment, Oscar Moment

Oscar Moment: “The Kids Are All Right”

22 06 2010

Everyone loves a summer indie comedy, even the Oscars. “Little Miss Sunshine” charmed audiences at the Sundance Film Festival, then slowly won over an audience, expanded that audience on video, and then received four Oscar nominations including Best Picture as well as wins for Best Original Screenplay and Best Supporting Actor.

“The Kids Are All Right” seems to have the first part of the “Little Miss Sunshine” formula in place after it became the anointed indie comedy at Sundance.  Written and directed by Lisa Cholodenko, the movie follows Nic and Jules (Annette Bening and Julianne Moore) and their children Joni and Laser (Mia Wasikowska and Josh Hutcherson), living comfortably in Los Angeles.  That is, until the kids decided to introduce Paul (Mark Ruffalo), the sperm donor that made them possible, into their lives.

The film appears to depoliticize a lesbian couple to a certain degree, normally a subject to cause a pretty big stir, and opens the movie up to a newer crowd. We are still awaiting release, but from what I’ve gathered, Focus is going to push the movie very mainstream. I’m anticipating the usual extremist backlash, but I don’t think this is a propaganda piece designed to shove homosexuality down anyone’s throat. It may very well be like any comedy where kids meet their long lost biological father; there’s just one more mother in the mix.

I think the movie’s surest bet for a nomination – and maybe even a win – is Best Original Screenplay.  The category is one of very few that is friendly to comedies; in fact, six of the ten winners of the past decades have been comedic scripts (although I’ll argue with you that “Lost in Translation” isn’t really a comedy).  If the movie proves to be original and funny with a beating heart inside, it’s going to be a formidable foe in the category.

But the actors are going to be another big Academy selling point for the movie.  The two leading ladies, Annette Bening and Julianne Moore, are incredibly overdue for the big prize.  Bening has three nominations, and she really should have won for “American Beauty.”  Her turn as Carolyn Burnham is absolutely one of my favorite roles ever, and she absolutely nailed it.  At the time, it appears that Focus will push her as the film’s leading actress where she could end up facing Hilary Swank again.  It’s been since 1998 that an actress won the category for a comedic role, but Bening is the kind of actress they might reverse a trend for.

Julianne Moore has even more nominations than Bening at a whopping four, and she is coming fresh off a snub for “A Single Man.” She’s one of the few actors who have pulled off dual nominations in a single year, and that’s a feat in itself.  It appears that she will be competing in the Best Supporting Actress category, which doesn’t seem to feature any big names right now (save maybe Keira Knightley and Dianne Wiest).  We saw how the Academy bent over backwards to give Kate Winslet an Oscar after five missed opportunities; it could be Moore’s time.

Mark Ruffalo is on the hunt for his first nomination with “The Kids Are All Right,” and it’s about time he got one.  He deserved a nomination for “You Can Count on Me” a decade ago, but he hasn’t exactly amassed an Academy-friendly resume since.  He has a spotty track record with some corny romantic comedies littered among a few smaller indies.  Overdue for a nomination may be a bit of a stretch to say, yet few can argue that Ruffalo is a great actor.  Perhaps an Oscar nomination might steer him away from the rom-coms and back to good, solid movies.

If the Academy really goes gaga for this movie, Wasikowska and Hutcherson may find themselves in the mix for a nomination. But a nomination is the best case scenario for them because Moore and Ruffalo have much more respect and longer careers. The need is much less pressing to anoint these young stars as Hollywood royalty.

In Contention, Kris Tapley’s highly regarded Oscars site, has “The Kids Are All Right” getting a whole lot of nominations. Five, to be specific – acting nominations for Bening, Moore, and Ruffalo plus Best Original Screenplay and Best Picture. Let’s face it, we all need a comedy in the Best Picture mix, so I’m going to agree with Tapley at least until the movie is released. But a nomination for each one of the main actors is a little more suspect.

The poll for this Oscar Moment will be a little different. Rather than asking a simple “pick one out of these answers,” I’m going to give you the option of picking multiple answers.  The question: “What Oscar nominations will ‘The Kids Are All Right’ receive?” Pick the ones you think will.

BEST BETS FOR NOMINATIONS: Best Picture, Best Actress (Bening), Best Supporting Actress (Moore), Best Supporting Actor (Ruffalo), Best Original Screenplay

OTHER POTENTIAL NOMINATIONS: Best Director, Best Supporting Actress (Wasikowska), Best Supporting Actor (Hutcherson)


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Categories : 2010 - Oscar Moment, Oscar Moment

Oscar Moment: “Winter’s Bone”

15 06 2010

All is looking good for Deborah Granik and Jennifer Lawrence, two people who you likely hadn’t heard of before this post and almost assuredly hadn’t heard of before this year.

Granik started off 2010 premiering her film, “Winter’s Bone,” at the Sundance Film Festival to massive acclaim.  It won the Grand Jury Prize for dramatic films, a very prestigious award, and was bought by Roadside Attractions for $500,000.  It was released last Friday, June 11, to outstanding critical reception – a 90% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes and an outstanding 87 on Metacritic.

Looking at the last two winners of the dramatic Grand Jury Prize might show us some potential fates for “Winter’s Bone.”  2009’s recipient was “Precious” (then known by the name of its source material, “Push”), and the 2008 winner was “Frozen River.”

“Precious” had more than just the Grand Jury Prize going for it coming out of Sundance.  It won the Audience Award as well, showing how popular it was with everyone who attended the festival (Mo’Nique also won the first of many prizes for her role in the movie).  It also got the sizzle and added press from its support by Tyler Perry and Oprah Winfrey.  “Winter’s Bone,” on the other hand, has a release with as little grandeur as its setting in the Ozark Mountains.  “Precious” went on to make nearly $50 million and score a stunning 91% on Rotten Tomatoes and a very good 79 on Metacritic.  As we all know, it received Best Picture nominations from the Golden Globes and Oscars, winning 2 Academy Awards on Hollywood’s biggest night.

I see more parallels with “Frozen River,” the decidedly unglamorous and gritty tale of a desperate mother (Melissa Leo) who illegally smuggles people across the U.S border with Canada.  After winning the Grand Jury Prize, it was picked up by Sony Pictures Classics (an expert in marketing independent movies) for $500,000.  They opened the movie in late August to tepid audience reaction, opening with a fairly weak $10,000 per theater average, a statistic that shows that theaters weren’t exactly packed.  Critical reception was much more positive, showed by its 88% on Rotten Tomatoes and 82 on Metacritic.  But at the end of the year, people remembered “Frozen River.”  It picked up momentum as the season dragged on, beginning with a surprising SAG nomination for Leo that eventually led to an Oscar nomination over the favored Sally Hawkins.  Leo’s strength undoubtedly helped Courtney Hunt’s screenplay get into the Best Original Screenplay fold as well.

I’m inclined to say “Winter’s Bone” will take the “Frozen River” path mainly because they have very similar, dark tones, a strong female performance, and a well-written script (“Winter’s Bone” picked up a screenwriting award at Sundance).  But the per theater average was nearly double that of “Frozen River,” so perhaps it will have a little bit more audience support to carry it through.  I’m just really not expecting it to receive a massive outpouring like “Precious” because it is “one of the unshowiest and most true-blooded epics of Americana you’re ever likely to see,” according to Entertainment Weekly‘s Lisa Schwarzbaum (who gave it an A).

The movie’s leading lady, Jennifer Lawrence, just screams “this year’s Carey Mulligan.”  Even younger than last year’s Best Actress nominee at 19, Lawrence has been a huge talking point of the movie.  Her breakout role has garnered her large attention from the media, leading to a spotlight from Esquire with a fairly steamy photo shoot.

Granik gave Vera Farmiga her big break with her debut feature, “Down to the Bone,” for which she was nominated for an Independent Spirit Award and won Best Actress from the Los Angeles Film Critics Association.  Don’t quote me on this, but I’m fairly certain that Jason Reitman has stated that seeing her in “Down to the Bone” led to her casting in “Up in the Air,” the movie that got her Golden Globe, SAG, and Oscar nominations.  So while it remains suspect how much love Lawrence will receive for this particular role, all signs point to a promising future for the young performer.

BEST BETS FOR NOMINATIONS: Best Actress (Lawrence), Best Adapted Screenplay

OTHER POTENTIAL NOMINATIONS: Best Picture, Best Director (Granik)


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Categories : 2010 - Oscar Moment, Oscar Moment

Oscar Moment: “Shutter Island”

8 06 2010

Martin Scorsese’s “Shutter Island” hits stores today.  While in theaters, the movie garnered pretty good reviews and made a nice sum at the box office on some pretty nice legs.  But could it get any serious Oscar nominations like Best Picture even though it was released in February?

It’s 67% on Rotten Tomatoes isn’t exactly stellar and would definitely put it in the longshot category with a field of five nominees.  But we live in a new era of Best Picture, and there are ten nominees now.  67% was good enough to make the cut last year, as “The Blind Side” showed us.  61% was even good enough in 2008 when “The Reader” slipped into a field of five.  And although scores are a little less accurate for older movies, “Out of Africa” won Best Picture in 1985 and now has a 61% fresh rating.

So based on its critical standing, a nomination is not completely out of the question.  But what about looking at “Shutter Island” financially?  It’s $127 million take is impressive for a February release, and it will surely help to keep the movie ingrained somewhere in the back of the minds of voters.  More importantly, the money helps to establish it as a fan favorite as well.  Many suspected that the move to 10 Best Picture nominees was to include more populist and mainstream movies, a suspicion that was vindicated when half of the nominees earned over $100 million dollars.  The money is probably what got “The Blind Side” into the race, a movie that had been little more than a blip on the radar during the season.

Although “Shutter Island” is much more Academy-friendly than “The Blind Side,” it did not meet the expectations many people have of a movie that bears the name of Martin Scorsese.  According to Rotten Tomatoes, it is his lowest-rated movie since “Boxcar Bertha” nearly 4o years ago (in the pre-“Taxi Driver” era).  This is where the box office performance and good reception by the fans will help.  It did a good job of keeping an audience, staying in the top 10 for a tremendous seven weeks and having an average drop of about 40% per weekend.

Speaking of Scorsese, it will be interesting to see how the Academy treats him now that they have finally given him the long overdue trophy.  They used to love nominating him but never awarding him.  Now, it’s a new chapter for Scorsese and the Oscars with new rules.  After giving Clint Eastwood his due for “Million Dollar Baby,” the Academy has been flaky on the director ever since.  He was nominated for Best Director in 2006 for “Letters from Iwo Jima” but found no love for “Gran Torino” and little for “Changeling” and “Invictus” in the years afterwards.  So will Scorsese still be lauded for the follow-up to his Oscar-winning work like Eastwood was, or will the Academy fast-forward to the snubbing stage?

I’m also wondering if Leonardo DiCaprio has a chance at Best Actor.  He has three nominations dating back to 1993 and no wins to show for them.  He is one of the finest actors of our generation, and his collaborations with Scorsese have raised his acting to great heights.  DiCaprio has received one nomination for a Scorsese movie to date, “The Aviator” in 2004, and maybe it’s time to make it two.

I can see “Shutter Island” being the “Inglourious Basterds” of 2010.  Both have respected pedigrees, made respectable sums, and did respectably with critics (while “Basterds” scored an 88% on Rotten Tomatoes, initial reception at Cannes was not quite so favorable).  Few people thought Tarantino’s film would have much success in awards season, but it was just a movie that everyone really liked and could agree on.  Its inclusion didn’t offend many people because it wasn’t a very polarizing choice.  “Shutter Island” could easily follow in its footsteps.


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Categories : 2010 - Oscar Moment, Oscar Moment

Oscar Moment: “Get Low”

11 05 2010

Out to top R. Kelly’s “Trapped in the Closet,” Robert Duvall stars in the film adaptation of Lil’ Jon’s hit song “Get Low.”

Just kidding.

It’s about the opposite.  “Get Low” could wind up being one of the biggest bait movies of the Oscar season, particularly for leading man Robert Duvall.  It was a hit at last year’s Toronto Film Festival and instantly thrusted Duvall into the Oscar conversation.  But when it was bought by Sony Pictures Classics following the festival, they decided to move it to the end of July 2010.  Thus, Duvall and “Get Low” are now in the 2010 awards talk.

Here’s my question: does the man need Oscar bait?  He’s already won Best Actor!  Sure, it was over 25 years ago (1983 for “Tender Mercies” to be exact), but that’s still a trophy on the mantle at Duvall Manor.

People make this argument for Meryl Streep year after year.  “She won so long ago,” they say.  “They don’t need to hide their affection; just give her another Oscar!”

The difference between the two is as follows.  Since Robert Duvall won the Oscar, he has received two other nominations (in consecutive years, as a matter of fact).  Since Meryl Streep won her last Oscar, she has been nominated eleven times!  Eleven!

Let’s take a look at some other revered actors who took home their first Oscar several decades ago and the results when they are in the game again.

  • Ellen Burstyn won Best Actress in 1974 for “Alice Doesn’t Live Here Anymore.”  Since then, she has been nominated three times, most recently in 2000 for “Requiem for a Dream.”  She has not won since.
  • Sissy Spacek won Best Actress in 1980 for “Coal Miner’s Daughter.”  Since then, she has been nominated four times, most recently in 2001 for “In the Bedroom.”  She has not won since.
  • Diane Keaton won Best Actress in 1976 for “Annie Hall.”  Since then, she has been nominated three times, most recently in 2003 for “Something’s Gotta Give.”  She has not won since.
  • Ben Kingsley won Best Actor in 1982 for “Gandhi.”  Since then, he has been nominated three times, most recently in 2003 for “House of Sand and Fog.”  He has not won since.
  • William Hurt won Best Actor in 1985 for “Kiss of the Spider Woman.”  Since then, he has been nominated three times, most recently in 2005 for “A History of Violence.”  He has not won since.
  • Julie Christie won Best Actor in 1965 for “Darling.”  Since then, she has been nominated three times, most recently in 2007 for “Away from Her.”  She has not won since.

See a pattern?

(NOTE: I excluded one outlier from the list: Jack Nicholson, who has received 12 nominations in his illustrious career.  His first win came on his fifth nomination in 1975 for Best Actor for “One Flew Over The Cuckoo’s Nest.”  Two nominations later, he won again in 1983 for Best Supporting Actor for “Terms of Endearment.”  Another four nominations later, he won his third statue in 1997 for Best Actor for “As Good As It Gets.”  He was nominated for Best Actor again in 2002 for “About Schmidt” but lost to Adrien Brody.)

But if you know anything about the Oscars beyond the statistics I gave you, another trend might have popped out at you.  In case you didn’t pick up on it, this might guide you.

  • When Ellen Burstyn was last nominated, she lost to Julia Roberts for “Erin Brockovich.”  Roberts was 33, and this nomination was her third.
  • When Sissy Spacek was last nominated, she lost to Halle Berry for “Monster’s Ball.”  Berry was 35, and this nomination was her first.
  • When Jack Nicholson was last nominated, he lost to Adrien Brody for “The Pianist.”  Brody was 29, and this nomination was his first.
  • When Diane Keaton was last nominated, she lost to Charlize Theron for “Monster.”  Theron was 28, and this nomination was her first.
  • When Ben Kingsley was last nominated, he lost to Sean Penn for “Mystic River.”  Penn was 43, and this nomination was his fourth.
  • When William Hurt was last nominated, he lost to George Clooney for “Syriana.”  Clooney was 43, and this nomination was his first.
  • When Julie Christie was last nominated, she lost to Marion Cotillard for “La Vie en Rose.”  Cotillard was 32, and this nomination was her first.

As I hope you now see, these veterans usually lose to younger actors with few nominations.  So does Duvall have history against him?

The role seems like a character he can really dig into.  In “Get Low,” he plays a hermit who plans his own funeral – which he plans to attend.  Alive.  He wants to hear what people think of him, but as events unfold, he ends up divulging why he’s been away in the woods so long.

The movie also features performances by Oscar winner Sissy Spacek and nominee Bill Murray.  Both could easily be in contention, but Murray seems to have the more substantial part.  They, along with Duvall, are definitely worth keeping an eye on this season.

BEST BETS FOR NOMINATIONS: Best Actor (Robert Duvall), Best Supporting Actor (Bill Murray)

OTHER POSSIBLE NOMINATIONS: Best Picture, Best Original Screenplay, Best Score


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Categories : 2010 - Oscar Moment, Oscar Moment

Oscar Moment: “Iron Man 2″

28 04 2010

In nine days, the summer movie season will officially kick off with the release of “Iron Man 2.”  It will most assuredly begin the very profitable period with a bang, potentially with the highest opening of all-time.  According to the Los Angeles Times, interest in the movie is very high ahead of the opening and polling has confirmed that people are indeed eagerly anticipating the release.  Whether or not it has what it takes to topple the record held by “The Dark Knight” is something no one can really predict.

“The Dark Knight” had many extraordinary circumstances in its favor.  The first “Iron Man” movie primed the pump for intelligent popcorn flicks by proving a surprise hit amongst fans and critics.  The rebooting of the Batman series with “Batman Begins” also gathered a large fan base, and people were excited for the follow-up.  But what arguably became the key factor in the success of “The Dark Knight” was the tragic death of Heath Ledger and a new layer of intrigue that was added to the movie as a result.  Rumor was that the drugs Ledger overdosed on were to help him get over the psychological distress of playing The Joker, and excitement to see his villainous turn quickly became some of the most intense anticipation in cinematic history.  People threw out casual suggestions about him being in contention for awards, and his death made an Oscar nomination a near certainty.  When the movie was released, Ledger’s win was sealed.

“Iron Man 2” features what could be another outstanding villainous role in Mickey Rourke taking on the part of Tony Stark’s foe, Whiplash.  After dealing with many substance abuse problems, Rourke triumphantly blazed back onto the Hollywood stage with “The Wrestler” in 2008, winning the Golden Globe and receiving an Oscar nomination.  His role in that movie led to a surge of interest in the actor, and the first role he took was in “Iron Man 2.”

But did Mickey Rourke lose all chances of being considered for Best Supporting Actor by being alive in the months leading up to the release of “Iron Man 2?”

It may be best to start by analyzing the category.

This is a category that LOVES villians – Christoph Waltz this year, Ledger, Javier Bardem in 2007, Tim Robbins in 2003.  It is also a category that likes to reward actors (usually veterans) who are overdue for a trophy – Alan Arkin in 2006, Morgan Freeman in 2004.  By these two characteristics, Rourke would appear to have a great shot.  He’s scary even whenever he’s not a villain, and he has a great deal of Academy support despite his loss two years ago to Sean Penn for Best Actor.

Judgement, however, cannot be based on the category alone.  It’s hardly a secret that the Oscars don’t like comic book movies.  They declined to nominate “The Dark Knight” for their highest prize despite being successful in every area and popular with every group in favor of “The Reader,” a movie that had lukewarm support from critics and fans.  Right out of the gate, Rourke and “Iron Man 2” have a massive strike against them.  It would take the movie out of the picture without the expanded field, no matter how much praise it was met with.  In my estimation, it will take a tremendous performance by Rourke to overcome this hurdle, one that I believe he is fully capable of delivering.  But if the movie tanks critically as sequels often do, it would be all but impossible for him to be nominated.

Then again, Heath Ledger overcame it.  We can never know how performance vs. politics played out or how things would have turned out had he been alive.  All politics aside, I believe Ledger gave one of the greatest performances that I have ever seen, and he deserved to win an Oscar for it dead or alive.  It was a total immersion, and if Rourke can pull off something similar, I see no reason for him not to be nominated or even win.  But awards can’t just be about the art; it’s a game where how you play matters just as much as how you act on screen.

I’m skeptical about Rourke’s chances, as you can tell.  We just have to remember that performances aren’t given and movies aren’t made to win awards; they are made to entertain and captivate an audience.  If Rourke blows us away with Whiplash, awards attention is just a bonus.  The real award comes from the creation of art that does more than serve its purpose.

BEST BETS FOR NOMINATIONS: Best Visual Effects, Best Sound Mixing/Editing

OTHER POSSIBLE NOMINATIONS: Best Supporting Actor (Mickey Rourke)


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Categories : 2010 - Oscar Moment, Oscar Moment

Oscar Moment: “Robin Hood”

18 04 2010

The lineup for the prestigious Cannes Film Festival was announced on Thursday, but we have known for several weeks now that “Robin Hood” would open the festival. While screening out of competition, it still deserves serious talk as an Oscar contender.

If “The Dark Knight” was part of the reason that the Oscars moved to ten nominees, then they are still looking for that popcorn flick with enough brain to atone for their horrifying omission.  “Robin Hood” could be that movie.

It’s directed by someone who has plenty of respect in the filmmaking community, Ridley Scott.  He has been nominated three times for Best Director and has helmed a movie that won Best Picture, “Gladiator.”  It’s hard not to take a look at “Robin Hood” and see a few similarities.

It clocks in at just under two and a half hours – big, long movies have scored with the Academy in the past.  The length lends it that sweeping epic feel that the Oscars tend to love.  Then again, so did “Kingdom of Heaven,” Scott’s 2005 drama about the Crusades that had huge expectations and failed to meet any of them.  In fact, since his last nomination for Best Director with “Black Hawk Down” in 2001, all of his movies have been considered Oscar contenders – and flopped.  “Body of Lies.”  “American Gangster.”  “A Good Year.”  Is “Robin Hood” the movie to put Scott back on the Oscar track or veer him further off of it?

He has certainly teamed up with Academy Award winner Russell Crowe enough times to know how to direct the star; keep in mind that Scott directed Crowe to his Oscar win.  And this cast is filled with plenty of other extraordinary acting talents, namely Cate Blanchett (winner of the 2004 Best Supporting Actress Oscar for “The Aviator”) as Robin Hood’s female companion, Lady Marian.  He also has winner William Hurt and nominee Max Von Sydow in his arsenal – but is that enough?

For a blockbuster to be nominated for Best Picture, it has to be extremely well-written.  The screenwriter of “Robin Hood” is Brian Helgeland, who won the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay in 1997 for his work on “LA Confidential.”  He also wrote the adaptation of “Mystic River” and received another nomination.  But he has also written some duds, including “The Postman” which won him a Razzie for Worst Screenplay.  It’s hard to draw conclusions from such a polar career.  What will we be getting with his latest?

I have to quote Sasha Stone from Awards Daily here because she put it so eloquently: “…’Robin Hood’ is going to be a movie for right now. Wall Street catastrophes and corporate-owned health care – it has never seemed more like a divided country between rich and poor. And, as history has shown us again and again, that never works very well for very long. The people can’t really tolerate it.”  And Universal is really playing this angle up, recognizing “real-life Robin Hoods” who selflessly give back to the community.  Anyone can nominate one of these people, and that person can win up to $10,000.

But I’m just not feeling the buzz around “Robin Hood,” something that I think it really needs.  Otherwise, it seems doomed to underwhelm – critically, financially, and in respect to awards.  I think the only certainty is contention in the technical categories; we’ll just have to wait another month to see what happens with the bigger categories.

BEST BETS FOR NOMINATIONS: Best Art Direction, Best Costume Design, Best Cinematography, Best Makeup, Best Sound Mixing/Editing

OTHER POSSIBLE NOMINATIONS: Best Picture, Best Director (Ridley Scott), Best Actor (Russell Crowe), Best Actress (Cate Blanchett), Best Original Screenplay

So, do you think “Robin Hood” is going to go the path of “Gladiator” or “Kingdom of Heaven?”  Are we looking at a potential Best Picture nominee or merely another summer popcorn blockbuster?


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Oscar Moment: “How to Train Your Dragon”

7 04 2010

Yesterday, “How to Train Your Dragon” passed $100 million at the box office, a reliable milestone signifying success finding an audience.  Naturally, I think this calls for an Oscar Moment discussing its chances in the Best Animated Feature.

Being a crowd favorite is something that helps when it comes to the Best Animated Feature category.  6 out of the 9 winners were the highest grossers in the field, and two of the others were $200 million grossers (the odd man out is “Spirited Away” which made only $10 million).  Although it’s unlikely to reach the bucks of a Pixar flick, “How to Train Your Dragon” still has the bucks to gain serious consideration in the category.

But can it topple a Pixar movie in the category that they practically own?

Based on the reviews, we know the critics aren’t against it.  The 98% critical approval rating of “How to Train Your Dragon” is equivalent to last year’s winner “Up” and bests all other winners.  Being well-reviewed is essential to win Best Animated Feature, which has scored an average of four percentage points higher than Best Picture winners since the category’s inception.  (The average would be a 96% – up seven percentage points – if you omit 2006, which really didn’t offer any good animated movies.)

The circumstances beyond the movie’s control will either kill it or give a giant boost.  Much depends on Pixar’s “Toy Story 3,” which is the obvious favorite to win and will open with massive expectations.  I see two scenarios working out: either “Toy Story 3” is a massive success and it takes the category like most are predicting, OR the tiniest thing is wrong and the movie is considered a disappointment.  Knowing Pixar, it’s best not to bet against the first scenario, but the latter is a definite possibility.  If Pixar doesn’t topple its own standards, voters might feel reluctant to give the studio another trophy.  Denying it to them would send a message that the lamp logo before a movie doesn’t ensure Oscar victory, and the beneficiary could very well be “How to Train Your Dragon.”

But as for other factors, the movie also has to contend with another DreamWorks Animation release in November, “Megamind.”  I’m not predicting this to be a critical hit just based on the fact that it stars Will Ferrell, but I could be wrong.  In the unlikely case that it does score critically, the studio will have a handful promoting two deserving movies for Best Animated Feature.  Depending on how many animated movies are released that year, there may not be five slots like there were this year.  If it does come down to three nominees in the category, the votes could easily cancel each other out.

The release date could hurt it as well.  Since it is being released about 11 months away from voting, it will have to really have staying power.  Voters will have to remember how the movie made them feel and how exhilarated they felt in 3D, because by the time DreamWorks starts screening the movie, it will most likely be out on DVD.

At the moment, it’s safe to say that “How to Train Your Dragon” is no longer a dark horse because it has a good outside shot at winning.  It will need some help, and we will see in a matter of months if that aid will pan out.  And in case you were wondering, I don’t think we are looking at a potential Best Picture nominee here.  “Up” was a deeply sentimental movie, and it was a reward for all the good work Pixar has done in the last 15 years.

BEST BETS FOR NOMINATIONS: Best Animated Feature


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Oscar Moment: “Toy Story 3”

29 03 2010

The 2009 Oscars were a little more than three weeks ago, so I think we’re ready to move onto 2010.  Next year’s ceremonies are 47 weeks away, but it’s never too early to start the chatter.

I felt like I should kick off my Oscars commentary this year with something that we all know will be in the running in some shape or form: “Toy Story 3,” the latest Pixar output.

Because it bears the Pixar brand, it automatically becomes the frontrunner in the Best Animated Feature race.  In the nine years that the category has been around, Pixar has won five of the seven times it has had a movie in the category (losing only with “Monsters, Inc.” and “Cars”) and the last three years in a row.  The studio is a juggernaut, and their movies clearly stand head and shoulders above any other animated film.

And “Up” scored Pixar its first nomination for Best Picture last year.  The expanded field is no doubt to thank for this, but it got me thinking.  With ten nominees every year, will there always be a spot for Pixar’s movie?

I looked at the history of the category, and it really doesn’t lend us any insight.  To be honest, it’s pointless and arbitrary to apply the rules of a five nomination field to one with ten.  But it’s obvious that having more nominees increases the chance for a niche to be carved in the category.  I think few can argue with the fact that Pixar has the respect in the industry to have their movies represented repeatedly.

But ultimately, it comes down to the movie, as it always does.  And “Toy Story 3” as expectations almost as unreal as flying a house with balloons.  Both of the original “Toy Story” movies have a perfect 100 score on Rotten Tomatoes, but in the eleven years since, Pixar has continued its unprecedented run with only one movie with below a 95.  “Cars” scored a 75% largely because the plot was stale in comparison to the other gems (in fact, it was the only Pixar movie since 2003 not to score a Best Original Screenplay nomination).

That proves a perfect segue into what must be the key element of “Toy Story 3”: the story.  People have incredibly fond memories of the first two installments, and in order to hit big with audiences, it has to strike the perfect chord of staying true to its roots but offering a new and exciting experience.  I’m a little tentative about all the new characters that Pixar is introducing in the movie.  They all need to serve a purpose to the plot and be used tastefully, otherwise they are just noisy lawn ornaments.

But honestly, this is Pixar we are talking about.  Time spent trying to find flaws in their work is time squandered.

Before I leave you, I want to talk about my plans for the “Oscar Moment” column this year.  We’ve been through a whole season together, and looking back, I can’t help but feel like I was just talking to a wall.  I set out to inform, and in doing that, I seemed to forgot to include.  This speculation is only fun if you all engage in it with me.  From now on, I am going to attach polls on Oscar Moments when I feel that they are worthwhile to gauge your opinion.

335 days until Oscars 2010!


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