Every year, one movie looks so impressive on paper that it is a foregone conclusion at the beginning of the year that it is not only a slam dunk to be a nominee, but also the assume winner of Best Picture. I think I speak for most pundits when I say that “Invictus” is that movie from 2009. When you mix one of the Academy’s favorite directors, Clint Eastwood, with two highly respected actors, Morgan Freeman and Matt Damon, not to mention a true inspirational story involving a beloved humanist, Nelson Mandela, it seems like simple math that these add up to Oscar gold.
But let’s look at the movies in a comparable position to “Invictus” from the past few years:
- “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” was nominated for 13 Oscars, including Best Picture, Director, Actor, and Screenplay. However, its three victories came only from its technical merit.
- “Atonement” was nominated for 7 Oscars, including Best Picture and Screenplay, and those were a surprise due to a fair level of disappointment that met the film upon its release. It ended up walking away with a statue for Best Score.
- “Dreamgirls” was nominated for 8 Oscars in 6 categories (3 nominations came from Best Song), but the film surprisingly was omitted from many major categories including Best Picture, Director, and Screenplay. It ended up with two awards, Best Supporting Actress for Jennifer Hudson and Best Sound Mixing.
- “Munich” was able to ride its assumed esteem into nominations for Best Picture, Director, and Screenplay, but it did not cash in on any of its nominations.
The only real conclusion that can be drawn from those results is that having sky-high expectations can often yield unfavorable results. If people expect something amazing, it is all the easier to underwhelm. So the only question that remains is which awards season path “Invictus” will tread – the extremely disappointing “Dreamgirls,” the mildly rewarding “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” or perhaps it will even capitalize on its status and turn it into Oscar triumph.
It is hard to judge the film on its own merit, though, because no one has seen it. However, if the trailer is any indication, we are really in for a treat. “Invictus” seems to be one of those inspirational movies designed to make your heart melt, the type of movie that the Academy hadn’t rewarded in a while until last year when “Slumdog Millionaire” cleaned house. If “Slumdog” has really ushered in a new era of feel-good, triumphant films taking home the big prizes, “Invictus” seems to be a logical successor. But then again, I feel like bloggers like myself often create these “movements” much like some suspect English teachers of coming up with “themes.” Maybe we over think it, and the choice of a body of voters is just based on what movie took their breath away that year.
To bring up the obligatory other face of the coin, Clint Eastwood perhaps isn’t quite as venerated by the Academy as many think. Neither of his two works gained much attention; “Gran Torino” wound up with a goose egg in the nomination column, not even willing to acknowledge what could be the last time he steps in front of the camera. The Academy rarely awards more than two Oscars to actors and directors, and maybe the voters think that Eastwood has gotten enough recognition from them. On a different note, if people are looking for a fairly buoyant movie, they might find “Up in the Air” a more appealing choice. Critics claim that it truly expresses the zeitgeist of these tough economic times, addressing our problems but infusing the gravity with a bit of levity.
While I could spend all day discussing the awards potential of “Invictus,” I will let the movie speak for itself on December 11. Then I will be in a much better position to discourse.
This edition of “Oscar Moment” concerns one of the favorites since last year’s Oscars finished. People have huge expectations for “Nine,” and if it fails to live up to them, the repercussions could be disastrous. It has every reason to succeed, though, based on a pedigree so impressive that it could be never be matched again. It has been a favorite in the Oscar race ever since it was announced; however, at the time of this posting, it remains a wild card in the race because no one has seen the full film yet.
So if Cotillard goes lead, who will be the nominee(s) for Best Supporting Actress? Despite all the talent, history tells us that “Nine” will probably be limited to two nominees in the category. Only “Tom Jones” in 1963 managed to sneak in three women; that movie won 4 Oscars including Best Picture. More notable though is that it did not collect the statue for Best Supporting Actress. The loss is due to a familiar phenomenon: vote splitting. It is how “Dreamgirls” and “Enchanted” managed to lose Best Original Song. Voters want to reward the movie, but they can’t rally behind a single nominee and someone else wins. But luckily for “Nine,” Harvey Weinstein has played this game many times. My guess is that he will start campaigning all the actresses evenly, but as more reviews come in and people see the movie, he will push the clear favorite.
At this time, the favorite is unknown. But based on the Broadway productions of the musical, an educated guess can be formed. In the original Broadway production, the Tony Award winner for Best Featured Actress was Liliane Montevecchi for her portrayal of Lilliane, Guido’s producer. In the movie, Liliane will be played by Judi Dench, who won this category back in 1998 for playing Queen Elizabeth for all of six minutes in “Shakespeare in Love.” Dench also has 5 other nominations, only one of which came from the supporting category. However, the research I have done seems to suggest that Lilliane is not a very flashy role. She does not have a solo song, and even if she is an integral part of other numbers, that seems to suggests that she is more of a subtle presence than a central part of the plot. (This is my interpretation from three years of musical theater experience.)
The remaining prospects left to touch on are Sophia Loren, who plays Guido’s mother, and Nicole Kidman, who plays Claudia, the star of Guido’s new movie. Guido’s mother barely appears in the plot summary anywhere, so I can only see a nomination plausible for Loren if the Academy falls head over heels for “Nine” and nominates Loren for nostalgic purposes. Although I will say, Guido’s mother sings the titular track “Nine,” and it is the sweet thing that melts voters. Claudia, on the other hand, has several beautiful numbers with Guido. Nicole Kidman has shown her capability with handling musicals – in fact, it’s how she got her first Academy Award nomination. But as for being an audience or critical favorite, Claudia has seem to have fallen short on Broadway. The role was only nominated for one major award, the slightly less prestigious Drama Desk, during its two runs on the Great White Way. I am most excited to see how this story plays out; that is, if audiences treasure Kidman especially or if she plays second fiddle to the other actresses like on stage.
You’ve already heard me say my fair share about “Up in the Air,” but a new trailer was released and I couldn’t help myself. This trailer gives us more information about the plot, yet it still leaves us with curiosity and excitement.
Another supporting actress worth noting is Vera Farmiga, who plays Alex Goran, the frequent traveler of Bingham’s dreams. Unlike Kendrick, I have seen one of Farmiga’s performances as the spellbinding lone female presence in “The Departed.” Like Kendrick, Reitman wrote the role especially for her. From my limited vantage point, it would appear that Farmiga has the more daunting character to tackle because Alex seems to illuminate a sensitive side of Bingham through their encounters.
Marshall and the Movies 
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