An Oscars tradition at my house: my mom always makes pizza, and we eat it while watching the red carpet arrivals on E!
Don’t know how it got started, but it stuck.
UPDATE: Turns out that I am a bit of a factoid repeater. Oh well, it was bound to happen sometime.
At the Screen Actors Guild Awards, they call it “Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role.” At the Golden Globe Awards, they call it “Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture.” But at the Academy Awards, the most celebrated show of them all, they call it simply “Best Actor.”
This distinction is important because at the Oscars, it is not just the performance that is rewarded. It is the actor themselves. The Academy elects four actors each year to become the face of quality of their industry to the world. These actors can forever affix the title “Academy Award Winner” to their name on any poster or trailer they so desire. Thus, they vote not only for a great body of work but also for a face and a personality that represents them well.
The performance gets a select group of actors some attention. Their name and reputation gets them to the next step: consideration. Then, a few big groups take a leap and select one of them. At this point, the part of the voter is done. It is up to the actors to let us know where they stand. With their acceptance speech, it is their job to convince us why they deserve the highest honor that their craft has to give. It is their job to show voters what a vote for them really means.
Let’s take a look at the five actors who have won top prizes from the Golden Globes and the Screen Actors Guild.
People obsessed with the future often remind us that we can tell our kids “I lived in a world where…”. For my parents, they can say they lived in a world where segregation still existed and cable didn’t.
There are plenty of things I can say to my kids. I lived in a world where September 11th was just another date on the calendar. Where you had to dial-up to get Internet. On the movie side of things, where “E.T.” was the highest-grossing movie of all time (not adjusting for inflation). Where Arnold Schwarzenegger was just a Terminator and a Kindergarten Cop. Where the Oscars weren’t held on a Sunday.
But one that I think they won’t be able to believe, unfortunately, is that I lived in a world where you could go to a movie and not be bothered by commercials before the trailers.
I remember this world vividly. It ended on November 15, 2002, when they showed ads for an EZ-Bake oven that made chocolate bugs before “Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets.” It stunned the audience. Little did we know, this would become a mainstay of trips to the movie theater. And it would only get worse.
It’s hard to believe that I’ve been sharing this experience with you all for 200 days, yet here we are. Random Factoid #200.
“Marshall and the Movies” is not, however, the first movie blog I have written. Back in December 2007, I attempted to start an Oscars blog called “Bold Oscar Predictions.” The site would be largely modeled after AwardsDaily and InContention, the two sites I frequent the most. My main goal was to write columns that used the history of the Academy’s choices to predict the nominees and winners.
I set up the site the day after I finished my finals in ninth grade, although I can’t seem to pinpoint my motivation. My first post was to be called “Why Amy Adams Won’t Be Nominated for an Oscar.” I was almost finished when I had to go out the door, never to return again.
I set the site up on a random server, and I made the stupid mistake of not writing down what I called it or where I set it up. For over two years, I have been searching for this blog. It was all in vain until a few weeks ago when I was cleaning out the spam from my Gmail account. I got a notice from “blog.com,” which I was about to delete before I remembered “Bold Oscar Predictions.” After a lengthy reset password process, I finally found the blog. Completely barren, of course, but it was still nice to have finally found it.
(Oh, and Amy Adams, if you ever read this, it’s ABSOLUTELY nothing personal on the post. Your role as Julie Powell is what inspired this blog!)
The Los Angeles Times, you are simply amazing! Literally, you are taking fanning the flames of my obsession to a whole new level and I love it!
It’s like the stock market, except you put your money on Oscar candidates! It’s so much fun to play the strategy game, especially knowing that you aren’t losing any real money. I’m putting big money on potential underdogs (such as “Inglourious Basterds” in Best Picture and “The Hurt Locker” in Best Screenplay) and significantly less on the locked winners (such as Mo’Nique).
I just downloaded this today, and it is already the most fun app I have on my iPhone. Search “The Envelope” and download the one from the Los Angeles Times. Even if you aren’t as obsessed as I am, it’s still a good time.
Although I may have managed to see all the Best Picture nominees on nomination day, I still haven’t seen all the nominated performances.
I got fairly close this year: 13/20. Or, as it would be called at my school, an F. Maybe next year I can pass…
(NOTE: It wasn’t possible for me to see them all without traveling to New York because “The Last Station” still hasn’t opened here.)
Yesterday afternoon, I had an exciting revelation.
For the first time in my life, I had seen every single Best Picture nominee on the day that the nominations were announced! I can now speak without reservations about personal taste on the category!
Best Picture:
Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air
Best Director:
Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
James Cameron, “Avatar”
Lee Daniels, “Precious”
Jason Reitman, “Up in the Air”
Quentin Tarantino, “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Actor:
Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
George Clooney, “Up in the Air”
Colin Firth, “A Single Man”
Morgan Freeman, “Invictus”
Jeremy Renner, “The Hurt Locker”
Best Actress:
Sandra Bullock, “The Blind Side”
Helen Mirren, “The Last Station”
Carey Mulligan, “An Education”
Gabourey Sidibe, “Precious”
Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”
Best Supporting Actor:
Matt Damon, “Invictus”
Woody Harrelson, “The Messenger”
Christopher Plummer, “The Last Station”
Stanley Tucci, “The Lovely Bones”
Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Supporting Actress:
Penelope Cruz, “Nine”
Vera Farmiga, “Up in the Air”
Maggie Gyllenhaal, “Crazy Heart”
Anna Kendrick, “Up in the Air”
Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Best Original Screenplay:
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The Messenger
A Serious Man
Up
Best Adapted Screenplay:
District 9
An Education
In the Loop
Precious
Up in the Air
The history of Marshall hearing about the Oscar nominations, part 1:
In the year 2009…
I watched from my kitchen in utter shock as “The Dark Knight” failed to net nominations for Best Adapted Screenplay, Director, and, most importantly, Picture. I drove to school completely stunned and pissed, and I read the rest of the nominations there.
In the year 2008…
Crap. I can’t remember. Mainly because I had practically no stake in the awards. I had only seen “No Country for Old Men” and “Michael Clayton,” which I was sure would miss.
In the year 2007…
I had an orthodontist appointment in the morning, and I fretted that I wouldn’t be able to hear them live. I found them on Fox News’ XM Radio station and was infuriated when “Dreamgirls” didn’t get a Best Picture nomination. (And I realize this will probably open the floodgates for plenty of “Dreamgirls” hate comments. Bring it on. I’d be happy to receive your comment.)
I remember stories for several more years, but you’re going to have to wait…until NEXT YEAR to hear them. Check back for the exciting sequel in 2011!
UPDATED 1/25/2011: Read part 2 HERE!
THE OSCAR NOMINATIONS ARE ANNOUNCED TOMORROW MORNING!
(deep breath)
I can barely contain myself! The morning that I spend all year anticipating is tomorrow! Last year, they gave me a nice sucker punch to the gut by denying “The Dark Knight” nominations for Best Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay. Four years ago, the same happened to “Walk the Line.”
We often let the pain outweigh the good on nomination morning. Remember than even if your favorite movie doesn’t get a nomination, life will go on. The filmmakers made the movie to entertain and excite, not to win awards (despite what we might cynically think).
Without further ado, here are my final predictions for the names and movies Anne Hathaway will be calling out on Tuesday morning. (NOTE: I’m going to limit my speculation as to who will win and try to keep it mostly about the nominations.)
Hearing the Oscar nominations is a very important thing for me. I go out of my way to make sure that I can hear them live because I have to know as soon as possible if my predictions are correct.
In fact, I even remember (dating back several years) how I found out the nominations. But I’ll save some of the suspense … for tomorrow’s factoid!
Oscar nomination ballots have now been sent out to the Academy! Thus, I felt it was time to issue a new set of Oscar Predictions. Since I last went on record, we have heard from a multitude of critics groups, the National Board of Review, and have received nominations from the Golden Globes and the Screen Actors Guild. What conclusion can we draw from them? I draw mine here.
Best Picture
Big changes this week, though nothing changes at the top. I still think “Up in the Air” is going to win – and not just because I love it so much. It is slowly picking up steam at the box office, and it is a movie that pretty much everybody really likes. It is powerful storytelling with commanding performances, the recipe for usual Oscar success.
But its two biggest threats have changed since the last set of predictions. “The Hurt Locker” has clearly established itself as the critical favorite, the movie that scores the most with the various critics groups from New York to Oklahoma. This can be good and bad, but the good critical favorites are usually the ones that are mixed with audience support. With only $12 million in the bank, it is clear that “The Hurt Locker” does not have this. If people a more populist pick for Best Picture with the expansion of the field, this would most likely send a message of adherence to pretentiousness.
The opposite message would be sent with the selection of “Avatar.” I resisted for as long as I could, but now it is virtually undeniable. With critics clearly behind it and box office standing at a formidable $213 million, this has a lot going for it. Yet it has a gender prejudice going against it. Only rarely do action movies fly with the Academy; just look at how they snubbed “The Dark Knight” last year for “The Reader.” I think many will see it as little more than a visual spectacle and technological innovator.
“Inglourious Basterds” has really jumped on the scene, getting top nominations from the Golden Globes and the SAG. I didn’t think this was possible in August, but I guess I was wrong.
“An Education” didn’t really fall; everything else just went up. Same goes for “Invictus,” but I think we are looking at this year’s “Frost/Nixon” or “Good Night, and Good Luck” here. By that, I mean the movie that gets a bunch of nominations with no real chance at winning any of them.
“Nine” actually dropped, though. Audiences didn’t receive it well as shown by the lackluster $5.4 million it posted Christmas weekend. Critics aren’t digging it, and its Rotten Tomatoes score is now sitting at a dreadful 37% fresh. On the other hand, we can’t forget that it did get a SAG Best Ensemble nomination over high-flying “Up in the Air,” among others. This is a movie that the actors seem to like, and they make up a large portion of the voting body. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it slip off the charts completely, but don’t count it out just yet. (“Precious” dropped too, but I offer some explanation on that in the Best Director section.)
The tenth slot continues to puzzle me. Now, I have it going to the Coen’s “A Serious Man,” but this is another big question mark. It failed to get a nomination for Best Picture at the Golden Globes (where “It’s Complicated” did, so “ha!” to all my detractors on that one), which is pretty big considering that “Burn After Reading” made it last year despite being met with a slightly chillier reception. And it pains me to pick this while so many of my favorite movies sit in the cellar.
Best Director
Bigelow has gained a lot of strength with most of the critics groups on her side, and I can now see a Best Picture-Director split between “Up in the Air” and her. The momentum for her to become the first female director to win the Oscar may just be too big to deny. Not to mention the fact that if “Up in the Air” takes screenplay and picture, Reitman will walk away with two statues.
James Cameron is the real star of “Avatar,” and the Academy will no doubt want to honor his work. This is a project that he has had in his head for over 15 years, and his patience while the technology caught up with the idea should be rewarded.
Tarantino takes over the fifth spot from Rob Marshall because of the lack of love for “Nine” (which is mostly because of him). The “Inglourious Basterds” love the critics, Golden Globes, and SAG have displayed is enough to get its director a nomination. After all, it really is his movie.
Lee Daniels drops off the chart because of his Golden Globes snub when “Precious” was clearly well received by the group. “Precious” has lost a ton of momentum from its release in November, mainly due to bumbling Lionsgate who refused to capitalize on the limited release success by taking it nationwide then.
People see the Academy as Clint’s cronies, which isn’t necessarily true. Maybe they just set out to make a statement last year with their “Gran Torino” shutout, but I think that the financial success came too late to make an impact. “Invictus” hasn’t exactly lit the box office on fire; however, I just get the sinking feeling that he is still going to get nominated here. Call me crazy.
Best Actor
The only change here is Bridges falling to number 4. He has only won awards from critics whose awards truly mean something like the Los Angeles Film Critics Circle; Clooney and Firth have been taking all the others. I’m getting a vibe that this a performance that is being honored for honor, not because people really love it. I am getting the latter vibe from Clooney, who has been taking the prizes from a lot of the smaller, less renowned critics circles.
This is the standard top 5 now among almost everyone. I can’t help but feel like there has to be some kind of shake-up here, some surprise nominee. But who? Maybe Daniel Day-Lewis will find his way in like always, or perhaps Matt Damon will surprise for his turn in “The Informant!” He had a heck of a year, and the Academy could see fit to honor that with two nominations. Just spitballing here.
Best Actress
I’m sorry, but I cannot pick Sandra Bullock here. I keep seeing all these raves for her and wonder if I saw the same movie and performance as they did.
I moved Sidibe back a spot because the critics awards seem to be hinting that this race will be a duel between Streep and Mulligan, the veteran and the fresh face. However, I could see a possible vote split propelling the novice to victory.
With Abbie Cornish showing up nowhere and “Bright Star” seemingly forgotten, she falls off the list. I replaced her with Marion Cotillard because the Academy loved her enough to give her an Oscar when no one knew who she was. Even though the buzz on “Nine” is down, I have a feeling there will be plenty of love for the ladies. Cotillard does have two emotionally wrenching numbers in the movie going for her.
And I’ll use this post to congratulate Meryl Streep on receiving her 25th Golden Globe nomination.
Best Supporting Actor
This is the category with the big shake-up this week.
Christoph Waltz is winning almost everything, so I can still place him in the number one slot.
Stanley Tucci jumps from off the list all the way to number 2. I think its a mix of career achievement and a very good year (despite the apparent “The Lovely Bones” flop). Christopher Plummer shares the former of these; Matt Damon, the latter. I think the fact that Plummer is 80 years old, well-respected, and has no nominations is enough to get him into the field.
Woody Harrelson, Alfred Molina, and Matt Damon were the three men vying for my last three slots. Despite Globes and SAG snubs for Molina, I still feel confident that he can make it. Damon and Harrelson got the two nominations that Molina missed, so logic would probably say that they would be the two to fill the spots. But I just get the feeling that Damon will get in because of the one-two punch of “Invictus” and “The Informant!”
Best Supporting Actress
No large change here. Mo’Nique is becoming quite the juggernaut, and unless she goes full Eddie Murphy, there’s no chance she loses it.
If she does go full Eddie, Anna Kendrick takes it. Her “Up in the Air” co-star, Vera Farmiga, takes over the fourth slot from Penelope Cruz. “Nine” love isn’t very strong, but she is the scene stealer. And she gets her picture here because she was too stunning not to feature.
Best Original Screenplay
Tarantino’s dialogue has won over the Academy once before, and I think he may do it again this year. He could be the new Woody Allen (for the Oscar voters) – just don’t tell him that I said that.
“A Serious Man” moves into the the nominees mainly because I can’t ponder hearing “Winner of One Oscar Nomination – BEST PICTURE.” I know it will happen eventually, but I don’t think it can the first year.
If “(500) Days of Summer” doesn’t get nominated here, I will hit something. It is too creative and brilliant to be ignored.
Best Adapted Screenplay
“Up in the Air” is still king here. Even if it doesn’t take Best Picture, I have a hard time seeing it losing this category.
“An Education” moves up despite missing out at the Golden Globes. There is a sizable British faction of the Academy, and they will see to it that he gets his just reward for this great screenplay. “Precious” moves down not only because of the Globes screenplay snub, but also because of a general loss of momentum.
“Invictus” gets a bump up mainly because “District 9” moves into the field as a wild-card contender. “Avatar” has probably dashed its hopes in the Best Picture field, so the Academy could reward it here. This was a well-scripted movie that scored with audiences and critics alike, and it deserves more than technical nominations that it is bound to lose to “Avatar.”
So, what are your thoughts? Am I crazy to still think “Up in the Air” will win Best Picture? Or that Jeff Bridges won’t win Best Actor? I’m dying to know what you think, so don’t hesitate to tell me!
Here’s a little Oscar story for you, told just like a fairy tale!
Once upon a time, there was a studio called Fox Searchlight. This was a specialty studio, so their job was to release movies that would be critically acclaimed and win lots of Oscars.
But in September, it was becoming inherently clear that things weren’t quite panning out for Fox Searchlight. “(500) Days of Summer” and “Adam” weren’t really Academy-type movies, and “Amelia” was a huge bomb with critics. With only Wes Anderson’s animated “Fantastic Mr. Fox” left to release, they didn’t seem to have any viable candidate for big categories at the Oscars (although some author’s commentary: Zooey Deschanel and Joseph Gordon-Levitt deserve to be nominated).
Fox Searchlight, who gave us last year’s Best Picture “Slumdog Millionaire,” had to do something to put themselves on the awards season map. So they used a trick play and moved “Crazy Heart,” originally scheduled for release in 2010, up to December 2009.
“Crazy Heart” is about an aged, washed-up country singer who falls in love with a younger female journalist and begins the trek back to the place he loves the most: the stage.
Does this sound familiar? Think back to just last year…
“The Wrestler” is about an aged, washed-up wrestler who falls in love with a younger female stripper and begins the trek back to the place he loves the most: the ring.
But the comparisons shouldn’t stop there. Both movies feature a sort of “rebirth” performance from their lead actors who have been ignored by the Oscars previously. Jeff Bridges, the main man of “Crazy Heart,” has not hit the depths quite like “The Wrestler”‘s Mickey Rourke, whose struggles with drug abuse were widely publicized. Bridges, on the other hand, has been doing rounds as a valuable character actor over the past few years and has deep respect in the industry. However, Fox Searchlight wants to make sure that we know that he has been an Oscar bridesmaid four times. They also make the somewhat hyperbolic claim that this is “the performance of a lifetime.” I think its pretty safe to say that all the hopes of this movie ride on Bridges’ shoulders.
And just look at the trailers. They are practically the same, even down to the guitar-strumming melodies behind them (the tune for “Crazy Heart” is Ryan Bingham’s “The Weary Kind”).
So, will this be a fairy-tale ending for Fox Searchlight? That’s largely up to you, the moviegoer, who makes the business, and the critics, who give the awards and write the reviews. At the moment, the latter have not shown much love. The Washington, D.C. Film Critics did not even nominate Bridges for Best Actor.
One interesting note: Mickey Rourke lost the Oscar to a gay man played by Sean Penn. Could Bridges lose to Colin Firth, who plays a darker homosexual in “A Single Man?”
We’ll find out the ending on a Sunday night in March…
BEST BETS FOR NOMINATIONS: Best Actor (Jeff Bridges), Best Song (“The Weary Kind”)
OTHER POTENTIAL NOMINATIONS: Best Picture, Best Actress (Maggie Gyllenhaal)
Today’s factoid deals heavily with Sporcle. If you don’t know what I am talking about, you should (and you can find out by clicking the link to the left). It is the perfect way to do “meaningful procrastination.” By that, I mean that this is somewhat beneficial to your brain. Facebook and YouTube, not so much.
A friend of mine was in random quiz mode on Sporcle, and the quiz that followed was “Can you name all of the categories at the Academy Awards?” She knows me well enough and instantly called me over to help. In less than 2 minutes, I had rattled off all 28 categories much to astonishment of my classmates.
I was determined to get the early word out on the National Board of Review winners today (you know, for everyone that comes to my site for all the breaking Oscar news). In order to do this, I kept the group’s official site open in my Internet window along with several other awards blogs and I hit refresh on each of them about every other minute. Surprisingly, I got the news from Dave Karger’s OscarWatch blog before I got it from the official site.
The things I do for you readers.
Marshall and the Movies 
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