“The Fighter” Poll Results

20 12 2010

“The Fighter” opened nationwide this past weekend to a pretty nice $12 million from 2,500 theaters, even ousting the per-theater average of “Yogi Bear.”  It’s also been receiving some very nice reviews, compiling a very nice 87% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes.  The awards attention has also shone bright on the movie, particularly on Christian Bale and Melissa Leo, but also on the picture as a whole; it received recognition in the Best Picture category from the Golden Globes and the BFCA this past week.

But can it get a Best Picture nomination at the Academy Awards?  I’ve had a poll running since November on this very topic, and it appears that my readers predicted wrong.

All three voters said that they did NOT think “The Fighter” would be nominated for the Oscar for Best Picture.  At the moment, these folks are looking very wrong indeed as the movie has made a surge at the perfect time.  My review is coming on Wednesday, so check out my raves for the movie.


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“For Colored Girls” Poll Results

14 12 2010

My goodness, that was one heck of a turnout!

My poll asking which “For Colored Girls” actress had the best chance at scoring a nomination for Best Supporting Actress had an outstanding 29 votes, my highest total for a poll yet!  Thanks to everyone who voted … although I wish it was on a topic with a little more relevance.  With the critical panning and lackluster box office showing for the movie, it’s not looking like much of a contender.

But I should still assess the results to see if we are looking at a long shot.  The clear favorite is Kimberly Elise, who received 11 votes.  I haven’t seen the movie yet, so I can’t really critique a performance or give any perspective.

Second was Janet Jackson with 7 votes.  There was a tie for third place between Thandie Newton and Macy Gray, who is not even being campaigned by Lionsgate for the movie.  Anika Noni Rose received two votes, and Kerry Washington received one vote.

Receiving no votes were Whoopi Goldberg, Phylicia Rashad, and Whoopi Goldberg.  Not that it matters at this point though.


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“Fair Game” Poll Results

13 12 2010

“Fair Game” has all but disappeared from discussion in the awards race, which really is a shame.  In my review last month, I raved:

“What makes ‘Fair Game’ one of the best movies I’ve seen this year is the fact that it is a politically conscious movie but not necessarily politically charged.  It’s a movie that reminds us that the truth has no political affiliation, and it reaffirms the very American responsibility to stand up and voice our discontent when we see the government failing in its duties.  Naomi Watt’s Valerie Plame Wilson does this in spite of one of the worst political climates for dissent in our history, and it’s a rousing profile in courage that will reinforce your sense of patriotic duty.”

Back in the Oscar Moment before I saw the movie, I was optimistically cynical about the movie’s chances, writing:

“For the movie to have a shot at Best Picture, there needs to be some big buzz building around the opening to carry it through the season.  It received mostly positive marks from its Cannes debut, but no one was jumping out of their seat in excitement.  Emerging from the Bush era, ‘Fair Game’ takes a look at how far we were willing to let the government take our freedom in exchange for security – and the victims of such policies.  It’s not a sympathetic look at America, and neither was last year’s Best Picture winner ‘The Hurt Locker.’  Are the politics of Oscar entering an era of confronting harsh realities?”

Over a month after the movie’s release, we haven’t seen any fireworks.  It was certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, but its score in the 70s wasn’t exactly a game changer.  It didn’t exactly get a large platform release, but it scored fairly modestly even in just over 400 theaters with $8 million and counting.

So, does it still have a chance?  Back in October and November, you seemed to think so.  2 voters said yes, and 1 voter said no.  I’d have to say that unless some massive late surge comes for the movie, we are looking at an also-ran.  A very good also-ran, though.


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“Inside Job” Poll Results

3 12 2010

I’ve weighed in twice on “Inside Job.”  First was back in October when I looked at its awards chances in an Oscar Moment.  I wrote:

“The movie makes the argument that Wall Street has been heading for collapse ever since the 1980s when institutions were allowed to trade on their own behalf.  The idea that banks and firms are betting against the customers is frightening, and the marketing campaign behind the movie seeks to make it look like an ‘economic horror movie.’  It’s an interesting notion, and given some of the movie’s revelations, Sony Pictures Classics may be on to something.”

And then I saw it for myself last month and went nuts.  In my review, I said among other things:

“No matter if you choose to agree with [writer/director] Ferguson’s assessment or not, it’s impossible to walk away from ‘Inside Job’ without feeling a little bit more knowledgable on the subject.  In my opinion, the more you know about the events leading up to the financial crisis, the more upsetting the whole debacle is.  There are certain facts you cannot slant, and Ferguson provides plenty of them that will have your jaw on the floor.  You can’t dismiss the movie as just an editorial piece because Ferguson researched it so comprehensively that he can back up any claim with statistics and the words of experts.”

But aside from my speculation, “Inside Job” is getting noticed by big names.  A few weeks ago, it got Forbes‘ Oscar vote.  But will it get the Academy’s vote?  That was the question I posed almost two months ago.

The poll only drew two disagreeing votes, one saying “yes” and the other “no.”  The low voter turnout was probably due to lack of knowledge of the movie and the category, but based on what I know, I think this is a safe bet for at least a nomination given its financial and critical success.  It made the shortlist of 15 nominees for Best Documentary, so now it has to prove itself superior to at least 9 of them.   We’ll see if politics get in the way or not.


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“The King’s Speech” Poll Results

26 11 2010

Remember back in September when I called “The King’s Speech” one of the Oscar frontrunners, suggesting it could even win Best Picture?  Most of the “Gurus o’ Gold” have it pegged to win today, the day of its United States release.

But clearly no one in the blogosphere was too excited about it back in September.  To be honest, I’m only tepidly excited now as I think this looks like typical Oscar bait with nothing very new on the table.

In September, I wrote about Tom Hooper’s movie:

After the win at Toronto, it’s riding a sort of front-runner status (although “The Social Network” managed to steal some thunder after many rave reviews popped up).  The People’s Choice Award certainly correlates more to the Oscars than the Venetian Golden Lion.  They have picked three Best Picture winners – “Slumdog Millionaire,” “American Beauty,” and “Chariots of Fire” – and plenty more nominees including “Precious,” “Life is Beautiful,” and “Shine.”  The award hasn’t been entirely effective in predicting Academy tastes, but it’s been very close in recent years.  ”The King’s Speech” has to be considered a big contender, though, by virtue of winning.

… there’s a chance that “The King’s Speech” has had its moment in the sun.  But there’s certainly nothing wrong with being at the top of the list for the moment, and many have speculated that Best Picture may come down to “old school Academy play versus a Gen-Y instant classic.”  I’d say given the fact that it’s a light drama with an acceptable amount of bait, it’s a pretty good bet for Best Picture and thus Best Director.

Two months later, not much has changed in the race, and not much will unless “True Grit” arrives in a blaze of thunder.  The poll I placed at the end of the post asked if “The King’s Speech” would win Best Picture, and it only received one vote saying “no.”  Until the critics chime in with their take in December, I’m remaining on the side of “The Social Network” simply because it seems like the Oscars are going more “movie of the moment” with Best Picture than “movie of a moment” like they traditionally did.

For an interesting take on this development, I recommend you check out Nathaniel Rogers’ full post at The Film Experience elaborating on the trend.  Here’s an excerpt:

” … even if a shift has occurred daring voters could still go for ‘The King’s Speech’ simply because it is a fine piece of filmmaking. Let’s not forget that Oscar bait and quality often coincide (see: ‘Quiz Show,’ ‘Milk’ and many more). Still current trends favor a ‘Social Network’ or – gasp – ‘Inception’ grabbing the top prize. It could happen. Even if a good chunk of the Academy digs in their heels and votes the safe choice, with the nominee pool expanded to ten the need for consensus has been drastically reduced. If ‘King’s Speech’ ends up checking every box on the Oscar wish list and still loses then this will go from being a trend to being a new reality.”


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“Waiting for Superman” Poll Results

22 11 2010

I’m fuming that I didn’t get a chance to catch “Waiting for Superman” before it left Houston theaters, but c’est la vie sometimes.  We can’t see everything.

But nonetheless, it’s still something to talk about.  It sure got people talking, just like a good documentary should do.  But will it be an Oscar victor?  That’s the question I posed in my Oscar Moment on Davis Guggenheim’s latest social issue documentary.  Remember, this is the man that brought us “An Inconvenient Truth,” no matter what Al Gore tries to tell us.

The I‘s have it.  3 voters said they thought it would take the path to Oscar gold, as opposed to 2 voters who thought it wouldn’t.  The movie hasn’t quite had a box office like that of Guggenheim’s last movie, so it doesn’t exactly have runaway success in its favor.  But when the President pays attention, you had better bet on the fact that Oscar voters are paying attention.


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“Hereafter” Poll Results

15 11 2010

Clint Eastwood’s “Hereafter” fell out of the top 10 at the box office this Sunday after spending only three weeks among Hollywood’s top earners.  With only $31 million in the bank and running out of steam quickly, what does this mean for the movie’s Oscar chances?

After the 49% fresh rating at Rotten Tomatoes spelled doom, the movie needed some box office support if it was going to have a clear shot at Best Picture – support that didn’t really materialize.  Before these developments came about, I asked in my Oscar Moment on “Hereafter” if we were looking at a Best Picture nominee.

The results were split right down the middle.  50% said yes, and 50% said no out of a voter yield of 4.  If I had the splitting vote, I’d probably say no given how the movie really has nothing going for it other than the fact that it’s directed by Clint Eastwood.  However, according to a report from The Odds, “Hereafter” may not be dead in the water:

“…from what I hear, Eastwood’s drama – three interlocking tales of people around the world affected by death or near-death experiences, with Cecile de France and Matt Damon – was very well-received by an AMPAS crowd that I’m told filled as much as 85 percent of the 1,000-seat Goldwyn.  One Academy member who was at the screening said the reaction to the film was ‘terrific,’ with sustained applause at the end of the film. Others concurred, but thought the attendance might have been a bit overstated.”

So we’ll just have to see what lies ahead for “Hereafter’ in the Oscar season.  It surely has an uphill battle ahead.


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“Nowhere Boy” Poll Results

10 11 2010

In Houston, “Nowhere Boy” came and went in two weeks, and I missed my small window to see it.  I wasn’t dying to catch it, but it would have been nice.  Whatever, it will make a nice rental.

The path it took in Houston – in and out – echoes how it was received in general stateside.  The British movie, nominated at last year’s BAFTAs, has had pretty lackluster returns after a promising start in 4 theaters.  Per theater averages have been pretty pathetic, and it’s clear that Americans just didn’t want to see this movie.

But even if “Nowhere Boy” just barely breaks $1 million in box office revenue, it doesn’t entirely disqualify it from Academy Awards contention.  Last year, Woody Harrelson was nominated for “The Messenger,” which made less than “Nowhere Boy.”  Before we knew of the movie’s middling reception, I asked if we were looking at an Oscar contender or a Globes contender.

In a very high voter turnout, 5 people said it wouldn’t make it farther than the Golden Globes and 4 said it would make it all the way to the Oscars.  For now, I have to side with the 55% majority.  Unless this picks up buzz from critics groups in a month, I think this fish is dead in the water.


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“127 Hours” Poll Results

5 11 2010

With Danny Boyle’s “127 Hours” opening today in theaters, I figured it would be as good a time as ever to look at the results of the poll I attached to the Oscar Moment back in September.

It’s all but a shoo-in now for Best Picture.  If you don’t believe me, look at some of the glowing reviews that have been published this week.

A.O. Scott, The New York Times:

“There are scenes in ‘127 Hours’ that are hard to bear — the cracking of a bone, the severing of a nerve, the desperate consumption of a water bag filled with urine — but what these moments communicate is more than worth a jolt of discomfort or a spasm of revulsion. To say that this movie gets under your skin is only barely a figure of speech. It pins you down, shakes you up and leaves you glad to be alive.”

Owen Gleiberman, Entertainment Weekly:

“How do you rivet an audience when your protagonist can’t even move? The answer is that there’s an awesome freedom to Danny Boyle’s filmmaking. And freedom, too, is the theme of the movie. Aron may be pinned, but his soul gets unlocked, and when he finally faces up to what he has to do, he’s not just cutting off his trapped appendage. He’s cutting off the part of himself that was only pretending to be alive. ‘127 Hours’ is a salute to do-it-yourself existential bravery, and an ingeniously crafted one, but what makes it cathartic is that it’s about a guy who gets high by taking the ultimate plunge.”

Boyle has gotten plenty of praise as well, but I dared to ask the question if two years post-Oscar victory was too soon for the “Slumdog Millionaire” director.

You didn’t seem to think so.  When asked if it was too soon, 75% said “no, he’s Danny Boyle!” as opposed to 25% who dared to say that two years would indeed be too soon.  I think I have to side with the majority here simply because from what I’m reading, the movie soars thanks to his kinetic directing style.


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“Conviction” Poll Results

25 10 2010

With a good-not-great 65% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes and a 61 on Metacritic, it doesn’t look like “Conviction” has the goods to make in the Best Picture race.  However, this ship is hardly the Titanic, and all is not sunk for Fox Searchlight.

There is still an incredibly viable contender in Sam Rockwell, who has been the favorite aspect of the movie across the board.  If he gets a nice push from the studio, the underrated Rockwell could get the moment in the sun he deserves.  In my Oscar Moment on “Conviction,” I asked you all whether Rockwell will get a nomination.

You seemed to have faith.  Four voters said yes; one said no.  That’s a whopping 80% in favor of a potential nomination for Sam Rockwell.  The movie opened in Houston over the weekend, and I haven’t been able to see it yet.  Hopefully I’ll be able to join the chorus of adulation soon.


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“Black Swan” Poll Results

21 10 2010

Everyone’s talking about “Black Swan” for Best Picture in the blogosphere.  Their opinion, which I totally agree with, is that a nomination for Darren Aronofsky’s latest feature would be the first true step forward for the Academy in years.  They have nominated movies like “Avatar” and “The Blind Side” and “District 9” before; out of the ordinary is not the same as making full progression.

But alas, when I published my two cents on “Black Swan” to kick off Oscar Moment Week in September, I focused more on the movie’s surest bet for a nomination, Natalie Portman.  She’s all but a lock to be nominated.  The big question is can 29-year-old Portman win?

The results were definitive.  2/3 of voters said they expected Portman to win Best Actress, while the other third remained skeptical.  I love Natalie Portman and can’t wait to see this movie; sight unseen, she is who I want to win.


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“Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps” Poll Results

16 10 2010

Looks like we’ve got a hung jury.

Back in the beginning of September, I pondered Michael Douglas’ Oscar chances given all the sympathy stemming from his very public fight against cancer (and the fact that he was getting good notes).

Three people think Douglas could cash in on the sympathy and get a Best Actor nomination while three think he won’t.  I hesitate to publish a split vote, but it’s pretty much where I stand as well.  Given the movie’s lackluster box office showing and mediocre critical reception, “Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps” doesn’t really seem to stand a chance.  But good performances have been nominated from sequels that didn’t light the world on fire – for example, Cate Blanchett for “Elizabeth: The Golden Age.”

So while a nomination isn’t out of the question, I’d say before precursors hit, it’s highly unlikely.


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“Never Let Me Go” Poll Results

4 10 2010

Oh, how time can change things.

A month ago, “Never Let Me Go” looked like the perfect awards candidate.  I even went down a bulleted list of all the things it had in its favor in my Oscar Moment.  To summarize …

  1. Based on a best-selling novel
  2. British
  3. Oscar-friendly British actors
  4. “Love, loss, hidden truths”

You all bought it just like me.  The vote was 80% in favor of the movie’s Oscar chances and 20% against it.  But with a mid-60s average on Rotten Tomatoes, pretty middling box office numbers, and no critical champions, this looks like a lost cause.  Maybe I shouldn’t have bought the book…


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FINCHERFEST is coming / “The Social Network” Poll Results

17 09 2010

We are TWO WEEKS away from the release of “The Social Network,” and I am about to FREAK OUT!!!  After hearing ecstatic review after ecstatic review, my anticipation just continues to build!  It’s now the background of my phone and computer.

As you may recall, I announced at the beginning of the month to spend a week dedicated to examining Fincher’s seven previous films leading up to “The Social Network.”  That will start either Thursday the 23rd or Friday the 24th, depending on how the “F.I.L.M. of the Week” column plays out.

But I want to make this more than just about me.  I alone cannot provide a full and complete survey of Fincher’s work, so I must call upon other bloggers to share their thoughts on Fincher and his movies.  If anyone has reviewed any of David Fincher’s films or written anything about him, I am inviting you to submit it to be published as a link alongside my reviews. Please send any and all submissions to mls4615@yahoo.com or leave a link in the comments here.

Just as a review, those movies are:

  • Ali3n (1992)
  • Se7en (1995)
  • The Game (1997)
  • Fight Club (1999)
  • Panic Room (2002)
  • Zodiac (2007)
  • The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008)

Hopefully by the time I start receiving submissions, I’ll have a banner ready to send to everyone who wants to submit so they can post it to their blog as well.  I’ll probably also submit this to be plugged on the LAMB as well.

And while we are on the topic of David Fincher, I might as well announce the results of the poll I attached to my Oscar Moment on “The Social Network.” I presumed it to be the frontrunner, which it may very well be, and asked if it will win Best Picture.

The results were interesting.  The first 5 people to vote all said “no.”  However, the last two said “yes.”  Winning is hard to call in September, but this is where I’d put my money if I were a betting man.

So submit, submit, submit!  Once the post runs, I won’t add any new links.


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“The Town” Poll Results

15 09 2010

Maybe you all are on to something and my skepticism was misplaced.

“The Town” will almost assuredly be certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes as it currently sits at an 84% with this general consensus: “Tense, smartly written, and wonderfully cast, The Town proves that Ben Affleck has rediscovered his muse — and that he’s a director to be reckoned with.”

Sounds like something I’d want to see.  But the question I asked was if we were looking at a contender – or just another early fall release that could never gain any traction.

You all seemed to think the former, which may actually be the case.  8 out of 13 people polled said that “The Town” will be a contender.

5 of you sided with the skepticism I showed in my Oscar Moment on the movie about a month ago.  Hopefully my readers are smarter than I am, but I’ll hopefully find out this weekend at the movie theater.

…well, actually, I’ll find out if it’s a good movie this weekend.  Awards are political and have little to do with the art.


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