12:53 A.M. To put the finishing touches on the evening, “Life of Pi” was the big winner with 4 Oscars including Best Director. “Argo” took home 3 trophies to boot including Best Picture, the one that really counts. “Les Misérables” had a nice haul of 3 as well, winning Anne Hathaway her first Oscar! “Django Unchained,” “Lincoln,” and “Skyfall” each won a pair of Academy Awards too.
Thanks for tuning in, everyone! You were a wonderful audience! And you helped make this a banner night for the site as well, breaking my all-time daily traffic record.
Check back tomorrow for my Monday morning wrap-up where I attempt to break down the implications of the night, the best-dressed women, and the precise moment I went and returned from heaven during the “Les Misérables” cast reunion. Take care, readers and Oscar watchers!
11:59 P.M. Aww, Ben Affleck and Jennifer Garner. And what an incredible speech of redemption, justice, and vindication!
11:58 P.M. Giving the Academy the finger with the mention of Affleck as a director.
11:56 P.M. What a wild ride for Ben Affleck. Congratulations to all involved on this fantastic movie!
11:55 P.M. BEST PICTURE: “ARGO“
11:53 P.M. Because Bill Clinton on the Golden Globes wasn’t enough, Michelle Obama had to upstage everyone at the Oscars…
11:52 P.M. Does Jack Nicholson always present Best Picture?
11:51 P.M. Biggest shocker of the night! A nice, eloquent speech as always. History has been made … and will probably be made again when he takes his next role.
11:48 P.M. BEST ACTOR: DANIEL DAY-LEWIS, “LINCOLN“
11:43 P.M. BEST ACTRESS: JENNIFER LAWRENCE, “SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK“
11:36 P.M. If “Life of Pi” does not win Best Picture, that means Ang Lee will have won Best Director twice and never won Best Picture.
11:34 P.M. BEST DIRECTOR: ANG LEE, “LIFE OF PI“
11:29 P.M. Ugh, really? Guess my distaste for Tarantino’s latest really killed my ballot.
11:26 P.M. BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: “DJANGO UNCHAINED“
11:24 P.M. BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: “ARGO“
11:17 P.M. You da bomb, Adele! The whole world loves you!
11:16 P.M. BEST ORIGINAL SONG: SKYFALL FROM “SKYFALL“
11:10 P.M. BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: “LIFE OF PI“
11:00 P.M. We miss you, Nora Ephron!
10:57 P.M. In memoriam, it always gets me…
10:49 P.M. BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: “LINCOLN“
10:36 P.M. No one can silence a room quite like Adele. She is unbelievable.
10:33 P.M. BEST FILM EDITING: “ARGO“
10:25 P.M. YES YES YES! “It came true,” channeling her best Mia Thermopolis. And such a beautiful line about Fantines in real life!
10:22 P.M. BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: ANNE HATHAWAY, “LES MISERABLES“
10:19 P.M. TIME FOR BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS!
10:16 P.M. So cool, never thought I’d see a tie in my lifetime! This is awesome!
10:14 P.M. BEST SOUND EDITING: (tie) “ZERO DARK THIRTY” and “SKYFALL“
10:11 P.M. BEST SOUND MIXING: “LES MISERABLES“
10:10 P.M. Glad Seth MacFarlane can joke about his movie’s mediocrity.
10:07 P.M. Is this what heaven is like? Oh my god!
10:05 P.M. HYPERVENTILATION!
10:03 P.M. I CAN DIE HAPPY NOW! THIS IS SO FANTASTIC!
10:02 P.M. LES MIS LES MIS LES MIS LES MIS I AM DYING
9:59 P.M. Jennifer Hudson being amazing is good enough. Why has she disappeared?!
9:57 P.M. HOW CAN THEY DO “DREAMGIRLS” WITHOUT BEYONCE!?!
9:54 P.M. I’ll never look at “Chicago” the same way. Catherine Zeta-Jones sounds awful and looks like a totally different person than the woman that won the Oscar 10 years ago.
9:53 P.M. I’m sorry, but I just can’t take John Travolta seriously…
9:50 P.M. BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: “AMOUR“
9:45 P.M. “Jaws” theme again? Wow, so rude.
9:44 P.M. BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: “SEARCHING FOR SUGAR MAN”
9:41 P.M. “The actor who really got inside Abraham Lincoln’s head was John Wilkes Booth.” Yeah, maybe too soon…
9:40 P.M. By breaking up the Best Picture nominees into 3 trios, I hope this doesn’t mean they think they can get away with not doing one giant montage…
9:37 P.M. The modern American superhero who isn’t American … Liam Neeson.
9:36 P.M. Darn, there goes my streak of getting all the short films right.
9:35 P.M. BEST SHORT FILM (DOCUMENTARY): “INOCENTE”
9:33 P.M. Love that feeling of getting a short film prediction right!
9:32 P.M. BEST SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION): “CURFEW”
9:30 P.M. This is how I knew who Shirley Bassey was…
9:27 P.M. Pretty impressive finish for Shirley Bassey there.
9:21 P.M. So glad “Les Misérables” isn’t going home empty handed!
9:20 P.M. BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: “LES MISERABLES“
9:17 P.M. BEST COSTUME DESIGN: “ANNA KARENINA“
9:11 P.M. What a terrible way to play someone off – with “Jaws!” He was trying to say something meaningful about their company that was going bankrupt and they just totally cut him off!
9:1o P.M. BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: “LIFE OF PI“
9:07 P.M. BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: “LIFE OF PI“
9:05 P.M. Awkwardly missing Scarlett Johansson on “The Avengers” reunion … now it’s a sausage fest.
9:04 P.M. Adorable flexing Quvenzhané Wallis! “I really hope I don’t lose to that old lady, Jennifer Lawrence!”
9:02 P.M. Chills all over again for “Les Misérables.”
9:00 P.M. Well, sorry for ever doubting Pixar owned this category, except when they don’t.
9:00 P.M. BEST ANIMATED FILM: “BRAVE“
8:59 P.M. So great of the Academy to send out all the short films!
8:58 P.M. BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM: “PAPERMAN”
8:57 P.M. Never mind, misread the envelope.
8:56 P.M. Screenplay already?! Not again….
8:55 P.M. Loving all this “E.T.” music!
8:52 P.M. Well, I guess lightning does strike twice. The same performance wins another Best Supporting Actor Oscar.
8:50 P.M. BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: CHRISTOPH WALTZ, “DJANGO UNCHAINED“
8:45 P.M. Sally Field, what a great sport!
8:42 P.M. So THAT’S why Daniel Radcliffe and Joseph Gordon-Levitt showed up to their first Oscars (which is a fact that surprises me).
8:40 P.M. Channing Tatum and Charlize Theron seem like an odd couple to be doing this dance … but they have some kind of grace! This reminds me of a “Family Guy” episode with all these random tangents.
8:37 P.M. This “we saw your boobs” number is true but just rubs me wrong…
8:31 P.M. Really, Tommy Lee Jones? Way to break character! Jimmy Fallon, you are in good company…
8:29 P.M. TIME FOR THE SHOW TO START!
8:20 P.M. Reminder to COMMENT and I will answer!
8:18 P.M. By my count, “Life of Pi“ wins five, “Argo“ and “Les Misérables“ take three, and “Amour“ and “Silver Linings Playbook“ steals two trophies. How’s that for spreading it around?
8:10 P.M. Best Picture. The holy grail.
Best Picture
“Amour“
“Argo“
“Beasts of the Southern Wild“
“Django Unchained“
“Les Misérables“
“Life of Pi“
“Lincoln“
“Silver Linings Playbook“
“Zero Dark Thirty“
Will win: “Argo“
Could win: “Silver Linings Playbook“
Should win: “Les Misérables“
Should be nominated: “The Master“
Only the second movie since 1930 to win Best Picture without a Best Director nomination – that is the feat “Argo“ looks to pull off tonight. On nomination day, I wrote “All that talk of it being a surprise come-from-behind winner all just came to a screeching halt with that Best Director snub.” That has quickly been proven dead wrong as it wins top honors from the Critics Choice, Golden Globes, PGA, DGA, SAG, and BAFTA. If it only had that pesky Best Director nomination, we wouldn’t think twice.
What looked to be a tough race to predict has been blown wide open by “Argo.” But if anything will prove us wrong, it would be “Silver Linings Playbook.” Then “Lincoln.” Then “Life of Pi.”
8:05 P.M. Ladies are looking PHENOMENAL tonight. Scroll down for Chastain, and also check out Anne Hathaway, Amy Adams, and Jennifer Lawrence!
8:00 P.M. Best Director will be more interesting tonight than it has been in quite some time … will they do it before or after the leading acting races? Hopefully it’s just right before Best Picture.
Best Director
Michael Haneke, “Amour“
Ang Lee, “Life of Pi“
David O. Russell, “Silver Linings Playbook“
Steven Spielberg, “Lincoln“
Benh Zeitlin, “Beasts of the Southern Wild“
Will win: Ang Lee, “Life of Pi“
Could win: David O. Russell, “Silver Linings Playbook“
Should win: Benh Zeitlin, “Beasts of the Southern Wild“
Should be nominated: Kathryn Bigelow, “Zero Dark Thirty“
A part of me wonders if David O. Russell won’t steal this, but his nomination for Best Adapted Screenplay could lead to some vote splitting. Steven Spielberg just doesn’t feel right, not with how “Lincoln” seems to have faded at the end of the season. Ang Lee’s work on “Life of Pi” just seems director-y, so something tells me I ought to pick him.
7:50 P.M. The “breath of fresh air” category of all former winners – Best Supporting Actor. Who will win their second – or third – Oscar? Saved this category towards the end because I was still thinking about it…
Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, “Argo”
Robert DeNiro, “Silver Linings Playbook“
Philip Seymour Hoffman, “The Master”
Tommy Lee Jones, “Lincoln“
Christoph Waltz, “Django Unchained”
Will win: Robert DeNiro, “Silver Linings Playbook“
Could win: Tommy Lee Jones, “Lincoln“
Should win: Philip Seymour Hoffman, “The Master”
Should be nominated: Eddie Redmayne, “Les Misérables“
He hasn’t won anything yet. But it’s a gut feeling I’ve had since the nominations. SAG winner Tommy Lee Jones or Globe/BAFTA winner Christoph Waltz seem to be more safe or likely choices. But if Riva upsets Lawrence, they run the risk of nominating “Silver Linings Playbook” for all acting awards and then giving it zero wins. I don’t think that happens, so DeNiro wins on sympathy and insurance votes.
7:40 P.M. The Best Actress race is crazy tight this year, and I will be on the edge of my seat as the envelope is opened.
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, “Zero Dark Thirty“
Jennifer Lawrence, “Silver Linings Playbook“
Emmanuelle Riva, “Amour“
Quvenzhané Wallis, “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
Naomi Watts, “The Impossible”
Will win: Jennifer Lawrence, “Silver Linings Playbook“
Could win: Emmanuelle Riva, “Amour“
Should win: Jessica Chastain, “Zero Dark Thirty“
Should be nominated: Marion Cotillard, “Rust and Bone”
Between the Golden Globe, the SAG, and “The Hunger Games,” this is Lawrence’s year. There seems to be a late surge for Riva with her BAFTA win, but I think Jennifer Lawrence should take this one.
7:32 P.M. How incredible does she look?!
7:30 P.M. I mean, do I even need to predict the next two categories?
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, “The Master”
Sally Field, “Lincoln“
Anne Hathaway, “Les Misérables“
Helen Hunt, “The Sessions”
Jacki Weaver, “Silver Linings Playbook“
Will win: Anne Hathaway, “Les Misérables“
Could win: Sally Field, “Lincoln“
Should win: Anne Hathaway, “Les Misérables“
Should be nominated: Shirley MacLaine, “Bernie”
Duh.
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, “Silver Linings Playbook“
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Lincoln“
Hugh Jackman, “Les Misérables“
Joaquin Phoenix, “The Master”
Denzel Washington, “Flight”
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis, “Lincoln“
Could win: Hugh Jackman, “Les Misérables“
Should win: Joaquin Phoenix, “The Master”
Should be nominated: Jack Black, “Bernie”
Again, duh.
7:20 P.M. Best Adapted Screenplay is one of the night’s most unpredictable races involving five major Best Picture contenders. Who will win?
Best Adapted Screenplay
“Argo“
“Beasts of the Southern Wild“
“Life of Pi“
“Lincoln“
“Silver Linings Playbook“
Will win: “Argo“
Could win: “Silver Linings Playbook“
Should win: “Argo”
Should be nominated: “Bernie”
Again, since they can’t give Best Director to Ben Affleck, they’ll give “Argo” some consolation prizes so it doesn’t ONLY win Best Picture. Perhaps this is where “Silver Linings Playbook” breaks through, but I think the momentum is unstoppable for “Argo.”
7:00 P.M. Time to move into the heavy hitters … can’t believe some of these people will be holding a golden statue soon!
Best Original Screenplay
“Amour”
“Django Unchained”
“Flight”
“Moonrise Kingdom”
“Zero Dark Thirty”
Will win: “Amour“
Could win: “Zero Dark Thirty”
Should win: “Zero Dark Thirty”
Should be nominated: “The Master”
“Zero Dark Thirty” may be too controversial, but it did win the WGA. However, it was not competing against Quentin Tarantino’s “Django Unchained” nor Michael Haneke’s “Amour.” I’m seeing a foreign film triumph like in 2002 when “Talk to Her” unexpectedly took the trophy. Just a gut feeling I have.
6:55 P.M. Jennifer Lawrence just referenced “Father of the Bride” – MARRY ME!
6:53 P.M. The sound categories always prove to be a bit of a conundrum – do you predict a split? They haven’t done so since 2008!
Best Sound Mixing
“Argo“
“Les Misérables”
“Life of Pi“
“Lincoln“
“Skyfall”
Will win: “Les Misérables”
Could win: “Life of Pi“
Should win: “Les Misérables”
Should be nominated: “The Impossible”
Did you know they sang live on “Les Misérables?” No movie has shone more of a light on sound mixing than this one, so it should handily win. And musicals always seem to score here.
Best Sound Editing
“Argo“
“Django Unchained”
“Life of Pi“
“Skyfall”
“Zero Dark Thirty“
Will win: “Life of Pi“
Could win: “Skyfall”
Should win: “Zero Dark Thirty“
Should be nominated: “The Impossible”
A “Life of Pi” technical sweep should get back on track and take the other sound category.
6:46 P.M. Cute Quvenzhané Wallis and her adorable puppy purse!
6:45 P.M. Best Film Editing, according to Dave Karger, is an even more necessary nomination than Best Director. So having said that…
Best Film Editing
“Argo“
“Life of Pi“
“Lincoln“
“Silver Linings Playbook“
“Zero Dark Thirty“
Will win: “Argo”
Could win: “Life of Pi“
Should win: “Zero Dark Thirty“
Should be nominated: “The Master”
6:35 P.M. Happy one year anniversary, Angelina Jolie’s protruding right leg!
6:30 P.M. Best Cinematography is a category I appreciate more and more each year. So who will take it for 2012?
Best Cinematography
“Anna Karenina”
“Django Unchained”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“Skyfall”
Will win: “Life of Pi”
Could win: “Skyfall”
Should win: “Skyfall”
Should be nominated: “Les Misérables”
I think it would be great if Roger Deakins, a perennial Oscar bridesmaid, won for his superb lensing of “Skyfall.” But his name isn’t on the ballot, just the movie’s name. And there seems to be a Bond bias in the Academy. So I say the technical domination of “Life of Pi” continues here.
6:20 P.M. That one time I ran into an Oscar nominee. It’s super casual.
(That’s Emmanuelle Riva of “Amour,” in case you couldn’t tell.)
6:15 P.M. Almost forgot the other two short film categories … whoops!
Best Documentary Short
“Inocente”
“Kings Point”
“Mondays at Racine”
“Open Heart”
“Redemption”
Will win: “Mondays at Racine”
Could win: “Open Heart”
I’m thinking heartstrings-tugger “Mondays at Racine,” about two female cancer patients who become unlikely friends, will triumph over “Open Heart.” The latter seems to similar to “Saving Face,” last year’s winner in the category about reconfiguring women’s faces in Pakistan that have been disfigured by acid.
Best Live Action Short
“Asad”
“Buzkashi Boys”
“Curfew”
“Death of a Shadow”
“Henry”
Will win: “Curfew”
Could win: “Death of a Shadow”
I did my research and “Curfew” sounded right, but now I don’t remember what it was about. I do remember that Matthias Schoenaerts of “Rust and Bone” was in “Death of a Shadow,” though.
6:05 P.M. Eddie Redmayne arrives! Why isn’t he nominated for Best Supporting Actor?!
6:00 P.M. What was once “Best Makeup” is now “Best Makeup and Hairstyling.” So that adds a whole new dimension to the category (slightly kidding, slightly serious).
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
“Hitchcock”
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“Les Misérables”
Will win: “Les Misérables”
Could win: “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
Should win: “Les Misérables”
Should be nominated: “Holy Motors”
Consider how much that makeup and hairstyling contributed to Anne Hathaway’s soon-to-be-Oscar winning performance. I think that’s enough to trump the showier styles of “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey.”
5:45 P.M. Time for my predictions for the costume drama awards. The movies that win here are usually made solely to win these Oscars.
Best Costume Design
“Anna Karenina”
“Les Misérables”
“Lincoln”
“Mirror Mirror”
“Snow White and the Huntsman”
Will win: “Anna Karenina”
Could win: “Les Misérables“
Should win: “Anna Karenina”
Should be nominated: “Moonrise Kingdom”
I mean, “Anna Karenina” is way too gorgeous to be passed up here.
Best Production Design
“Anna Karenina”
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“Les Misérables”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
Will win: “Anna Karenina”
Could win: “Life of Pi“
Should win: “Anna Karenina”
Should be nominated: “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
Some say the digital scenery of “Life of Pi” will triumph over the traditionally Oscar-y sets of “Anna Karenina,” like how “Avatar” won in 2009. And maybe it will, indicating a HUGE technical sweep for the movie. But I think given that the scenery and setting of “Anna Karenina” is a major plot device, it will walk away with the award.
4:45 P.M. 84, soon to be 85 years of Oscar, all in one picture. Awesome.
4:00 P.M. I saw all the Best Picture nominees so you don’t. Here are some of my favorite quotes from my reviews of each nominated film.
“Amour”
At times, it can be fairly difficult to watch … but how hunky-dory do you want movies about death to be? How can you even begin to comprehend the ennui of watching someone slowly lose their grip on life when you are treated to watch from a coolly removed distance?
“Argo”
However, I don’t attribute the success of “Argo” merely to coincidence and fate. The movie works because it was meticulously and intentionally crafted by director Ben Affleck, who continues to make leaps and bounds with each movie he makes.
Have no doubt about it, “Beasts” is a movie that could only by an uncorrupted visionary like Zeitlin. His ambition soars to the sky, and even in the rare occasions where it falls short, we are left in awe of the sheer gutsiness of the decision.
[R]ather than use the forward momentum to lead to further exploration of his craft, Tarantino chose to take a victory lap fueled by the high of inhaling too much of the exhaust fumes of his own success. ”Django Unchained” just feels like Tarantino on autopilot, lacking the vibrancy or surprising eccentricity of his prior films.
Even when the novelty of the close-ups wears off, we are still left to ponder just how radical and revolutionary Hooper’s “Les Misérables” is. The musical genre has favored sweeping grandiosity for years in an attempt to replicate the stage experience for cinematic audiences. Hooper, on the other hand, respects the live theatre’s conventions but throws out those that do not translate well to screen.
The core ideas of “Life of Pi” get diluted, passed over in favor of a little more cinematic grandeur. Don’t get me wrong, Lee’s grand canvas for the movie is exciting and stunning. But I can get that in any movie; few dare to delve into the psyche like he meagerly attempted to do.
“Lincoln”
Once the process wraps up, it is revealed that Kushner and Spielberg are really more interested in hagiography than biography with “Lincoln.” While it delves deeper than just mere Honest Abe iconography, their film is not one that attempts to tell his story.
Russell’s editing facilitates emotional rapport, [and] the two feel like parts of ourselves that we usually try to pretend don’t exist. But on screen and embodied by Cooper and Lawrence, we embrace them and allow them to illuminate the crazy that lives within us all.
Through the journalistic proceedings of “Zero Dark Thirty,” Boal cleverly utilizes Maya as an important through-line to keep us drawn in. And Chastain in turns creates a character so scarily resolute that we can’t help but root and cheer for her.
3:45 P.M. Remember when “Zero Dark Thirty” was the frontrunner for Best Picture? Read my piece for “LAMB Devours the Oscars” to see what happened to what was once a prized darling.
3:30 P.M. Animation is a little tougher than normal this year…
Best Animated Feature
“Brave”
“Frankenweenie”
“ParaNorman”
“The Pirates: Band of Misfits”
“Wreck-It Ralph”
Will win: “Wreck-It Ralph”
Could win: “Brave”
Should win: “Wreck-It Ralph”
A few years ago, it would be unimaginable that Pixar could lose this category. They may not cede their turf tonight, to be fair. “Brave” won the Golden Globe and BAFTA, but “Wreck-It Ralph” had better reviews and took the PGA and Annie Award. I admit to picking the movie I think is clearly better and hoping the Academy feels the same way. But they could remind us that this category belongs to the studio of Woody and Buzz.
Best Short Film – Animated
“Adam and Dog”
“Fresh Guacamole”
“Head Over Heels”
“Maggie Simpson in The Longest Daycare”
“Paperman”
Will win: “Paperman”
Could win: “Adam and Dog”
Should win: “Maggie Simpson in The Longest Daycare”
Disney’s short film “Paperman” should clean up here. It seems like the most substantial nominee, but I could be totally wrong. I saw it before “Wreck-It Ralph” and was very impressed with the way it rehashed silent film charm.
3:15 P.M. “Zero Dark Thirty” jokes are fun.
3:00 P.M. Visual effects are fun. Check out some of these awesome videos demonstrating how the nominated films came together on a computer!
Best Visual Effects
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“Snow White and the Huntsman”
Will win: “Life of Pi”
Could win: “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
Should win: “Life of Pi”
Should be nominated: “The Impossible”
Best Picture nominees have dominated this category since 2008, so I give the advantage to “Life of Pi.” On the other hand, “The Lord of the Rings” did win this category three times in a row, so a sneak attack is possible.
2:45 P.M. Some more predictions for you … again, I consider these to be pretty much no-brainers.
Best Documentary Feature
“5 Broken Cameras”
“The Gatekeepers”
“How to Survive a Plague”
“The Invisible War”
“Searching for Sugar Man”
Will win: “Searching for Sugar Man”
Could win: “The Invisible War”
Should win: “The Invisible War”
Should be nominated: “The Queen of Versailles”
Have only seen two of the nominated films, so I can’t speak much from my own aesthetic tastes. But “Searching for Sugar Man” has been totally dominant on the precursors circuit, and I don’t expect its dominance to let up now.
Best Foreign Language Film
“Amour”
“Kon-Tiki”
“No”
“A Royal Affair”
“War Witch”
Will win: “Amour”
Could win: “Kon-Tiki”
Should win: “No”
Should be nominated: “Rust and Bone”
Are any movies other than “Amour” in this category nominated for Best Picture? Nope, didn’t think so. Some have speculated crowd-pleasing “Kon-Tiki” could pull a “The Lives of Others”-style upset on Michael Haneke’s downer, but I think that’s doubtful at best.
And I base my should win for “No” on the trailer, which is seriously AMAZING! Shameless plug:
2:30 P.M. Honest posters for the Best Picture nominees. So incredibly accurate.
2:25 P.M. Subtext?
2:15 P.M. Might as well start some predictions. What better place to start than with the music categories? This year’s ceremony promises to be quite a celebration of music between performances by Adele, Norah Jones, Barbra Streisand, and Shirley Bassey. There’s also the celebration of “Chicago,” “Dreamgirls,” and “Les Misérables.” And the show will close with a number by host Seth MacFarlane and Kristin Chenoweth. Oy.
Best Score
“Anna Karenina,” Dario Marianelli
“Argo,” Alexandre Desplat
“Life of Pi,” Mychael Danna
“Lincoln,” John Williams
“Skyfall,” Thomas Newman
Will win: “Life of Pi”
Could win: “Argo”
Should win: “Anna Karenina”
Should be nominated: “The Master,” Jonny Greenwood
Really don’t have any sense of certainty, but “Life of Pi” certainly seems to be headed towards a large below-the-line haul. And it won the Golden Globe. Perhaps if the momentum for “Argo” extends beyond Best Picture, it will lift up Best Score. It would be a much-deserved win for workhorse Alexandre Desplat. Then again, we also should not count out John Williams EVER. But I don’t think that will happen with the lack of “Lincoln” love in the late phase of the season.
Best Song
Before My Time from “Chasing Ice,” music and lyrics by J. Ralph
Suddenly from “Les Misérables,” music by Claude-Michel Schönberg, lyrics by Herbert Kretzmer and Alain Boublil
Pi’s Lullaby from “Life of Pi,” music by Mychael Danna, lyrics by Bombay Jayashri
Skyfall from “Skyfall,” music and lyrics by Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth
Everybody Needs a Best Friend from “Ted,” music by Walter Murphy, lyrics by Seth MacFarlane
Will win: Skyfall from “Skyfall”
Could win: Suddenly from “Les Misérables”
Should win: Skyfall from “Skyfall”
Should be nominated: Who Were We from “Holy Motors”
Easiest race of the night to call. It’s “Skyfall” all the way.
2:00 P.M. Kids Oscars. Let’s go!
1:50 P.M. Feel free to comment below and I will respond in the post itself!
1:45 P.M. For reference’s sake, many people will refer to tonight’s proceedings as “The 2013 Academy Awards.” In fact, probably most people will. But I, for whatever reason, choose to refer to the ceremony by the calendar year in which the nominated films were released.
1:40 P.M. Already a quick note to the E! hostesses … stick to fashion, please. Leave punditry to Dave Karger. “Argo” will not win “Best Oscar,” it will win “Best Picture.”
1:30 P.M. Who the heck is already watching Oscars red carpet coverage?! ME, of course! I can’t get enough of this stuff, who cares if no one famous shows up for 5 hours? I’m now on my fourth live Oscars blog, and it has quickly become one of my favorite parts of the night. I love sharing my thoughts with everyone – and also being able to go back and see my thoughts from past ceremonies.
(If curious, check out the live blogs from 2011, 2010, and 2009.)
So who will win Best Picture, Best Director, and other coveted trophies? In a few hours, we will know. But in the meantime, we have this list of nine…
The top five of “Lincoln,” “Les Misérables,” “Argo,” “Zero Dark Thirty,” and “Silver Linings Playbook” are locked in. There has been pretty consistent and unilateral support for these all season long (although some critics have savaged a certain musical I love).
The PGA also showed some love for “Moonrise Kingdom” and “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” two summer successes that many thought might have some hidden pockets of support. But will they choose both, one, or neither?
In case you caught on, yes, I did intentionally structure my prediction breakdown so that I would get to publish post-Directors Guild nominations. If you didn’t catch those this morning, they were Ben Affleck for “Argo,” Kathryn Bigelow for “Zero Dark Thirty,” Tom Hooper for “Les Misérables,” Ang Lee for “
While many would say Ang Lee was just below the “big three,” I would say Hooper is far more secure. I think the movie will play well with Academy voters, and I still think it could win Best Picture. It will likely win three, if not four Golden Globes. It could also win the ensemble award at SAG. And if “Les Misérables” made them feel anywhere near as much as “The King’s Speech,” they know who pulled the strings of their tear ducts. A nomination feels pretty secure to me.
However, the Academy directing branch, comprised of only about 300-400 members, is notoriously snooty, arty, high-minded, or whatever adjective you want to use. So maybe that will benefit Ang Lee. But often times, it’s a boon to someone they respect but has received little recognition leading up to the nominations With their out of the blue selections, they often provide some of the biggest surprises on nomination morning.
Phoenix’s journey will likely end the same way Fassbender’s did. Repelling the Academy, Fassbender was left on the outside looking in at the Best Actor category. Phoenix shouldn’t mind being put in the same position, however, because 
The dynamics at the top of the race have changed little over the past month. It’s still a Chastain vs. Lawrence cage match, and I think we won’t really know until the envelope is opened. They will go head-to-head at the Critics’ Choice Awards and the SAG Awards, but Viola Davis won both of those last year and lost the Oscar. The Golden Globe will do nothing to clear up the picture as they will compete in separate categories. I give Chastain the edge now.
I’m much more bullish on Watts, a prior nominee for “21 Grams” back in 2003, perhaps because I haven’t seen the movie yet and can visualize her more as a statistic (sorry for the bluntness, but that’s the name of the game). I’ve read that “The Impossible” has really played the guild circuit, ginning up admiration for Watts and the cast along the way. She got a high-profile shout-out from a mere acquaintance, Reese Witherspoon, in 
SAG’s fifth nominee was Helen Mirren for “
Perhaps that same European bloc of voters will be split among several other contenders from across the sea. The French Cotillard could steal some European love, as could the British-Australian Watts. Emmanuelle Riva could also make a play for that contingent for her work in “
Although, in the event of a “Lincoln” sweep (and me sticking my head in an oven), Sally Field could go 3-for-3 and win here for “Lincoln.” She’s certainly had her fair share of recognition along the precursor circuit, including a high-profile win from the New York Critics’ Circle.
On paper, the smart money would be on Nicole Kidman to snag a nomination. SAG is always the best indicator of actors’ sentiment, and she also has a key Globe nod.
Although don’t get me wrong, maybe they will not go with a perennial Oscar bridesmaid but rather a crowned Oscar queen.
Could it be Critics’ Choice nominee Matthew McConaughey for “Magic Mike?” He’s had quite the career turnaround in 2012, and a nomination would be a nice pat on the back. A nomination would be in the pattern of Robert Downey, Jr. in 2008 for “Tropic Thunder,” another unconventional comedic role from a resurgent actor.
Both DiCaprio and Waltz received nominations from the Golden Globes, but neither showed up on the Critics’ Choice list nor the SAG. The latter can be explained by a lack of screeners being sent to the nominating committee, but the former is troubling. I considered “Django Unchained” to be a non-factor in the season until it found some very vocal critical supporters and a large audience. So I have to think at least one actor from the movie will show up, but I don’t think there’s a consensus on who that should be.
I think this is probably the biggest no-brainer race of them all for 2012. It’s an extremely thin field, filled with several past nominees and winners. “Zero Dark Thirty” and “Django Unchained” will vie for the win; I think it’s Mark Boal’s to lose, but Tarantino could take it if they feel Boal’s win for “
As for that final slot, people (including myself) seem to have finally caught onto the fact that the writers’ branch sees foreign films and isn’t afraid to nominate them. Despite everyone declaring “
“Lincoln,” “Argo,” and “Silver Linings Playbook” are locks. Inarguable. If they don’t get nominated … well, I won’t finish that sentence since it’s a waste of time. IT’S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.
In 2010, the category was 5-for-5 with Best Picture nominees “
The past two years have seen the leading man of the Best Picture winner take home Best Actor. So I’m going out on a limb for Hugh Jackman. I know it sounds illogical at the moment. But the hope is that in a few months, we will all look back at this post and say, “Wow, Marshall! I can’t believe you had such foresight!” Although it’s very likely that we also look back and say, “Wow, Marshall, you were really dumb not to see the steamroller of Daniel Day-Lewis coming a mile away.”
Though Bradley Cooper may be best known for “
It looks like her main competition will be Jessica Chastain’s gritty, steely CIA agent from “Zero Dark Thirty.” Chastain’s epic 2011 brought her an Oscar nomination for “The Help,” and her grace and cheer really went over well with everyone. As far as I’m concerned, she’s the new Amy Adams, who was the new Julianne Moore/Cate Blanchett/Kate Winslet.
Marion Cotillard deserves score a nomination here as well, and given the incredibly weak field, it shouldn’t be a problem. Upon seeing the film a second time last week, I realized that where “La Vie En Rose” was a total transformation, “Rust and Bone” is a radically different movie for her. She’s so much subtler and rawer. It’s enormously affecting. See it when you get the chance.
Philip Seymour Hoffman is just going for his second Oscar, but I think plenty of people would argue he’s an actor headed for the stature of Daniel Day-Lewis and Robert DeNiro. He will get to two, and maybe “The Master” will get him there. He won a prize at Venice (a tie with Joaquin Phoenix), and his co-lead status will help.
Alan Arkin is likely in for “Argo,” but he’s only in the film for a handful of scenes. He makes them the most funny and entertaining scenes in the film, though. But I can’t help but wonder if he’s not as much of a shoo-in as some people think. He’s already earned his lifetime achievement award – I mean, Best Supporting Actor prize in 2006 for “Little Miss Sunshine.” And “Argo” may not be an actor’s movie. So we will see.
Thanks for coming, everyone. You did your best, but you weren’t good enough. Anne Hathaway apparently gives a performance for the ages and makes everyone cry. She has won. It’s over before it even began.
To quote “Les Miserables” itself, the time is now, the day is here. Tom Hooper’s film has finally been revealed to critics and awards voters – and all reports indicate they are eating it up. Shrewdly opening on Christmas Day, it will be an audience favorite undoubtedly as it opens wallets and tear ducts across the nation (and world).
Of the other likely nominees, only “Lincoln” really stands a chance of getting 10 or more (perhaps “The Master” if it comes back roaring). Everything seems to be going right for it at the moment. The box office is great, the reviews are great, the press is great, and the timing could not be more perfect. Spielberg struck a gold mine here.
That gritty, spunky Sundance/festivals quotient (“
The Academy also doesn’t seem bothered by picking novices over experienced directors well-regarded throughout the industry. They like what they like, and whoever delivers them the best movie is going to win Best Director. Truffaut would be smiling if he were still with us because his auteur theory is etched in stone in AMPAS mentality.
I still wouldn’t count out Ben Affleck to win, especially if “Argo” holds on and starts winning big. But if it’s “Les Miserables” and not Hooper, I think the Academy votes Spielberg over Affleck.
“The Master” just seems like the movie of the year to me from this distance. Tom Cruise has seen the movie and HATES it, that’s enough for me. If the movie is really going to take on Scientology, it could really be a pop culture centerpiece for the fall.
So I doubt they will think twice about nominating “Les Miserables” for Best Picture. The Tony Award-winning musical has everything that could possibly ever appeal to an Academy member: drama, emotion, catharsis, noble prostitutes, solid acting, historical setting, impressive craftwork … and it’s directed by Tom Hooper, the man who made them feel so good they gave him Best Director for a movie that required very little directing..jpg)
People have been raving about Ang Lee’s “Life of Pi” since its presentation of footage at CinemaCon back in the spring, and I think the coupling of a respected, Oscar-winning director tackling 3D will be the “
Marshall and the Movies 
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