Best Picture
- The Social Network

- The King’s Speech

- The Fighter

- Black Swan
(5)
- Inception
(4)
- True Grit
(9)
- Toy Story 3
(6)
- The Kids Are All Right
(7)
- 127 Hours
(10)
- The Town
(NR)

In case you needed any reminder of why the movie in the top spot is comfortably perched there, look above.
“The Social Network” is way ahead in the lead, and I personally don’t think that anything is going to stop it. But “The King’s Speech” threw an interesting twist into the race with its PGA victory on Saturday night with the help of a preferential ballot, and more discussion about this will be appropriate once the slate is officially set for February 27.
At this point, I honestly think that “The Fighter” could be the only movie with a chance to knock it out of the top slot. It could easily take the SAG ensemble win, and it has popped up unexpectedly in many guilds. The movie has also positioned itself to win two acting awards after victories with the BFCA and HFPA. I just get a sinking sensation that this is the movie that has enough across-the-board love to pull an upset on a preferential ballot.
“Black Swan” has popped up on EVERY guild list this year, something that could make it the most nominated movie of the year. This is obviously huge for the movie, but now that it’s assured a nomination, I’m thinking about how likely a win would be. Given that the movie tends to polarize, the chances are small. And as I’ve said about “The King’s Speech” all year, it’s not the Academy’s type of movie anymore, so I still have a hard time seeing it win. “Inception” is out of the running because it missed out on a SAG ensemble nod despite being star-studded, and you need the support of the actors to win.

Those are the five certainties, and I’d be awestruck if any of those five miss. I think “True Grit” and “Toy Story 3” are locks for nominations as well. “The Kids Are All Right” is in, but I still stand by my assertion earlier this year that it would not shock me to see it left off.
It’s down to three movies – “127 Hours,” “The Town,” and “Winter’s Bone” – to battle it out for the final two slots. There could, of course, be lurking surprises like “The Blind Side” last year, but no movie seems to have positioned its chips to make a big move on nominations day. Every critical darling is underseen, and all the box office smashes are poorly reviewed.
I think “127 Hours” is in because it has a passionate base of supporters that should be able to overcome the faction of the Academy that simply won’t watch the movie. It’s from Danny Boyle, who is clearly an Academy favorite after his “Slumdog Millionaire” orchestrated a sweep of the Oscars in 2008 that we only see once or twice a decade. This a powerful movie, and those who can sit through it walk out with an enhanced appreciation of life. I think they can easily power it to a nomination.

Previously, I had predicted “Winter’s Bone” to take that final slot. But ever since the PGA left it on the outside looking in, I’ve been more inclined to favor “The Town.” As I said on the LAMBcast, putting Ben Affleck’s movie in the field would make for a perfect 50-50 split between indies and blockbusters. It would give a nice sense of “something for everyone” to Best Picture, which is kind of what I think the idea was when they expanded the field.
But “Winter’s Bone” does have a few things going for it. While I don’t think many people LOVE “The Town,” I do think that there is a significant handful of people that do love “Winter’s Bone.” It’s nothing like any of the other Best Picture nominees this year; it’s understated, quiet, stars no-name actors, and is truly of an independent sensibility.
The other so-called “indies” in the race feature recognizable actors and have largely entered mainstream consciousness. I wouldn’t count out the desire to represent a part of the industry that isn’t manifest in the first 9 nominees, but my pick is still on “The Town.” For better or for worse.
In case you were really hankering for my no guts no glory pick for a Best Picture nominee, it would be “Shutter Island.” But I don’t think that’s likely.
Best Director
David Fincher, “The Social Network” 
- Darren Aronofsky, “Black Swan”
(3)
- Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech”
(4)
- Christopher Nolan, “Inception”
(2)
- David O. Russell, “The Fighter”

No real change in the field here. If there’s any surprise in this category, it will likely come at the expense of David O. Russell, a prickly figure in Hollywood. But since this would be his first nomination, and those likely to replace him have won in the past three years (Danny Boyle/The Coen Brothers), he seems like a good bet. I’d also say that Christopher Nolan isn’t as safe as most would like him to be; the DGA has shortlisted him twice and the Academy has yet to recognize him in this category. A snub would be shocking but not unforseeable.
For the win, it’s Fincher way out in front. Even if “The King’s Speech” or “The Fighter” makes headway in the Best Picture race, there is no doubt that this award will be going to “The Social Network” and its genius helmer. It would be foolish to place your money anywhere else.
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