Oscar Moment: December 10, 2010 Awards Round-Up

10 12 2010

Welcome back to another exciting awards round-up post!  It’s been a whole week since I’ve said anything about the Oscars, which is the longest I’ve gone since September!  It’s a good thing this week has been pretty stagnant aside from a few minor critics groups and some top 10 lists out in the mix.

Please remember to take the poll at the end of the discussion!  It will help to make these posts more community-driven – it’s fun just reading it and writing about it, but I sure do enjoy it more when I get your feedback!  You don’t have to live and breath Oscars like I do to take part!

As for last week’s poll, you all think that “The Social Network” will beat “The King’s Speech” for Best Picture.  And by you all, I mean all one voter that took the poll.  So let’s shoot for higher this week!

(And another reminder: I spent a lot of time linking the titles of movies in this post to their respective Oscar Moments/reviews if you want to know more about them.  So don’t hesitate to click!)

Awards

Washington, D.C. Film Critics announce. Generally not a very exciting bunch; Kris Tapley of In Contention said their picks are usually just guessing what the Oscars will nominated in about 7 weeks.  Like myself and several others, they think “The Social Network” is going to be the cup that the Academy sips from when picking their awards.

Their Best Picture line-up was absolutely stellar though: “Black Swan,” “Inception,” “127 Hours,” “The Social Network,” and “Toy Story 3.”  If those were Oscar’s five (way back when they only nominated that many movies for Best Picture), I would be a very happy man.  Since many are already boiling the race down to a horserace, it’s curious not to see “The King’s Speech,” but it got plenty of love, including a win for Best Actor for Colin Firth and Best Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, and Original Screenplay nominations.

Jennifer Lawrence took Best Actress for “Winter’s Bone,” which definitely showed some strength from the win as well as nominations for Supporting Actor (John Hawkes) and Adapted Screenplay.  I think we could definitely be looking at a critical favorite in Lawrence, although this is a very similar trajectory to Carey Mulligan last year who wound up not taking home any major prizes.

Predictable wins for Christian Bale and Melissa Leo in “The Fighter” in the supporting categories, with the former looking more and more like a lock with each passing day.  “The Social Network” also won Best Director and Adapted Screenplay, neither of which was surprising given the group’s love for the film.

Interestingly, “Inception” won Best Original Screenplay over the field of “The King’s Speech,” “The Kids Are All Right,” “Another Year,” and “Black Swan.”  This category has played out interestingly at the Oscars over the past two years.  2009 brought us “The Hurt Locker” ultimately triumphing over “Inglourious Basterds” with “Up” as a dark horse looming in the background.  2008 was the horse race between two totally different types of movies, “Milk” and the almost non-verbal “Wall-E.”  Given what’s been going on recently, “Inception” makes a fascinating wild card.  “The King’s Speech” is like past winner “Milk,” and “The Kids Are All Right” gives off “Juno” vibes.  There hasn’t been a movie like “Inception” in the race in a long time (unless you want to compare it to the mind maze of “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind”).

For a historical reference point, last year the group picked “Up in the Air” as their Best Picture.  Aside from the slam dunk supporting categories, the only Oscar winner they selected was Kathryn Bigelow as Best Director for “The Hurt Locker.”  Since 2002, they haven’t been a very reliable predictor at all of the ultimate selections of the Oscars.

For a full list of nominees, see the official press release from the WAFCA.

The British Independent Film Awards. Predictably, “The King’s Speech” cleaned house at the British Independent Film Awards, the equivalent of the Independent Spirit Awards across the pond.  The very British story of King George VI took home Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, and Best Screenplay.  Curiously, director Tom Hooper lost Best Director to Gareth Edwards for his work on the ultra-low budget “Monsters.”  Mike Leigh was also nominated for “Another Year” in this category.

These awards don’t really show us much other than that the British are firmly allied over their love of this movie.  Last year, “Moon” triumphed over eventual Best Picture nominee “An Education,” the movie considered to have the “British vote” going into the Oscars.  This faction will be crucial to “The King’s Speech” if it is to prevail in the Best Picture category, and this is a very reassuring ceremony for the movie.

Also worth noting: “Never Let Me Go” may be almost entirely forgotten, but apparently Carey Mulligan isn’t.  She won Best Actress for her performance, and I still wouldn’t count her out as a dark horse Oscar nominee.  I don’t think a Golden Globe nomination is entirely out of the question (a la Tobey Maguire in last year’s “Brothers“).

The European Film Awards. Not much to report here as the only awards contender really in play was “The Ghost Writer,” and it capitalized on its seven nominations by winning a stunning six categories.  Lesley Manville was in contention for “Another Year” but lost Best European Actress to an actress I’ve never heard of in a movie I’ve never heard of.

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Oscar Moment: Final Preseason Predictions!

1 12 2010

It’s time!  The guessing is about to be over, so I figured I’d take my final stab at Oscar’s picks before the critics groups and guilds exert their influence over the race.

Past predictions: November 2010, September 2010.

Best Picture:

  1. The Social Network
  2. The King’s Speech
  3. Black Swan (9)
  4. Inception (6)
  5. Toy Story 3
  6. 127 Hours (3)
  7. The Fighter
  8. Winter’s Bone (NR)
  9. True Grit (4)
  10. The Kids Are All Right (8)

Dropping off: How Do You Know

Little change in the “TSN”/”TKS” dialectic as I still believe their duel will be the story of the season and that David Fincher’s Facebook movie will win out.  Other than that, the job of a prognosticator is to distinguish the dark horses from those just lucky to populate the top 10.

Noticeably different from the lineup a month ago is the position of “Black Swan,” which has received some massive praise in large amounts.  I’m just really feeling the love for this movie right now, and while it may just be a movie for the critics groups, I think the emphasis on its artistic achievement will push it through.

As for other motions on the chart, “Inception” moves up as the DVD release gives it an uptick; how much the movie can run with it, though, is yet to be determined. “127 Hours” moves down because I just don’t feel the passion for it has been able to sustain.

“True Grit” falls as reviews make it out to be great but nothing to stop the presses like ‘The Social Network” did, and since the Coens have already directed a Best Picture winner, the movie stands in a big shadow.  And I’ve never felt secure on “The Kids Are All Right” simply because it just seems too assumed, too “its a well-reviewed social commentary and comedy so it’s in” to be a safe bet.  The public didn’t quite catch on, and its DVD release didn’t revive much passion.

“Winter’s Bone” charts for the first time as it seems to be the “anointed indie” of 2010 after its triumph at the Gotham Awards and it led the pack of Indie Spirit award nominations (more on Friday.)

Best Director:

  1. David Fincher, “The Social Network” 
  2. Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech” 
  3. Darren Aronofsky, “Black Swan”  (4)
  4. Christopher Nolan, “Inception”  (3)
  5. Danny Boyle, “127 Hours” 

Not much going on here other than the flop in positions of Aronofsky and Nolan.  For me, this is a stagnant category and not much will change unless the Coen Brothers knock out one of the bottom 3.

Best Actor:

  1. Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”  (2)
  2. James Franco, “127 Hours”  (1)
  3. Jesse Eisenberg, “The Social Network” 
  4. Robert Duvall, “Get Low”  (NR)
  5. Ryan Gosling, “Blue Valentine” 

Dropping off: Mark Wahlberg

Although I don’t agree with the commonly held conception that “The King’s Speech” will be the big winner of 2010’s Oscar race, I do think it will have a nice trophy haul.  The voters like this movie, and they want to give it some reward other than Best Picture.  Thus, Colin Firth, the very likable and talented performer, gets Best Actor as a testament to the film’s power.  I can see it playing out much like 2008 when “Milk” took home Best Actor for Sean Penn and Best Original Screenplay.  James Franco may just be too young to win (and he gets to host the show.)

Eisenberg stays at position #3, a safe bet for now but could be dislodged if little support is thrown his way.  Duvall reenters as Bridges/Wahlberg praise has been relatively muted amidst the raves for their movies.  “The Fighter” and “True Grit” will get their chance in the Supporting categories, both with a good shot at the win.  There’s the sentimental Peter O’Toole in “Venus” vote going for him here, although it does hurt that he’s won before.

And I still stick with Gosling simply because I stand to my guns on this movie being rewarded for its raw acting.  But I realize that the Academy could pull a “Revolutionary Road” on us and nominate neither he or Williams because the material is too depressing.

Best Actress:

  1. Natalie Portman, “Black Swan” 
  2. Annette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right” 
  3. Nicole Kidman, “Rabbit Hole” 
  4. Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone”  (NR)
  5. Michelle Williams, “Blue Valentine”  (4)

Dropping off: Lesley Manville

Little change here as well.  I stil think this is Portman’s year, and she will run away with it.  Perhaps certain organizations where sentimental votes really count will choose Bening, but I think the Academy knows an incredible, transformative performance when they see one.  To quote my own review of “Black Swan” in a shameless plug, “Portman absolutely disappears into her character.  It’s a shocking and startling transformation due to Portman’s dedication to learning the craft of ballet and her impeccable acting.”

Kidman stays stagnant, and Michelle Williams is forced down a rung by the force of Jennifer Lawrence, an actress whose chances I was very cynical about (as shown by her fall off the chart from September to November).  But now I think I’m sure that she’s the real deal, although if “Winter’s Bone” falters in awards season, I may retract that statement.  I was hesitant to place her in my top 5 because she is so young; if nominated, Lawrence will be the second-youngest nominee ever at 19 years of age.  But she could easily be the Carey Mulligan of 2010, the breakout star no one can deny.  I doubt she could topple Portman or Bening, but I wouldn’t rule her out as the year’s critical darling.

Best Supporting Actor:

  1. Christian Bale, “The Fighter” 
  2. Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech” 
  3. Matt Damon, “True Grit”  (NR)
  4. Andrew Garfield, “The Social Network”  (3)
  5. Jeremy Renner, “The Town”  (NR)

Dropping off: Aaron Eckhart, Sam Rockwell

Since I last updated these predictions, people actually saw “The Fighter” and confirmed my suspicion that Christian Bale would steamroll his way through awards season.  He has the respect to get there (despite his temper), and he is deserving.  Paramount will easily be able to make the case that this is “his time.”  Apologies to Geoffrey Rush, but your time was in 1996 when you won Best Actor.

Matt Damon makes his first appearance on the list as good word gets around about his performance in “True Grit,” replacing Sam Rockwell, who isn’t very good in the fairly pathetic “Conviction.”

My bad for the category fraud – I assumed Aaron Eckhart would be campaigned in Best Supporting Actor after reading a piece by Dave Karger.  But according to the FYC ads, I’m wrong, and he will be rightfully campaigned in the leading category.  With passion for Andrew Garfield’s performance seemingly slipping but nonetheless still present, who should fill that last slot?  I still think the men problem of “The Kids Are All Right” will keep Mark Ruffalo out again (unfortunately).

My pick is Jeremy Renner.  There’s a whole lot of good will for “The Town,” although I still dobut it has enough to crack the Best Picture shortlist.  The good feelings for the movie could translate into a surprise acting nomination, much like Maggie Gyllenhaal found herself in the Best Supporting Actress race without any prior attention when “Crazy Heart” wasn’t nominated for Best Picture.  Jeremy Renner, a nominee for last year’s “The Hurt Locker,” is really emerging as a big star, and what better way to mint him as a mainstream actor than nominate him in consecutive years?  This would prove him to be more than just a one-hit wonder, and it’s one way they could honor “The Town.”

Best Supporting Actress:

  1. Hailee Steinfeld, “True Grit”  (3)
  2. Helena Bonham Carter, “The King’s Speech”  (5)
  3. Melissa Leo, “The Fighter”  (1)
  4. Amy Adams, “The Fighter”  (NR)
  5. Dianne Weist, “Rabbit Hole” (4)

Dropping off: Miranda Richardson

I can’t wait for precursor season to start so we can GET SOME CLARITY ON THIS CATEGORY!  We have been wandering in the wilderness for months upon months now with everyone offering guesses, not predictions.  So my final guess is Hailee Steinfeld, the tenacious youngin of “True Grit.”  If the Academy wants to reward the movie with a trophy, this could be the simplest place to do it.  The socialism of the Oscars isn’t something dependable, but it happens enough to factor in to predictions.

With “The King’s Speech” taken care of in Best Actor, Helena Bonham Carter doesn’t pose much of a threat.  Ditto for Melissa Leo and Amy Adams, who will cede the carrying of the torch for “The Fighter” to Christian Bale.  I doubt Dianne Weist has a legitimate shot at winning since she has taken this category twice.  Can you picture her next to Jack Nicholson as the premier Oscar-winning actors of a generation?  I can’t.

Best Original Screenplay:

  1. The King’s Speech 
  2. The Kids Are All Right
  3. Inception
  4. Another Year
  5. Black Swan

Finally, some commentary on the screenplay race that you’ve been craving since September.  Don’t lie, this is exciting to you.

While “Inception” and “The Kids Are All Right” are undoubtedly the most original of the bunch, this seems to be a category for “The King’s Speech” simply because of the broad acclaim the movie has received.  If the Academy is looking for a place to reward the movie other than Best Picture, this is another easy way they can elevate its statue count above the winner of the Best Documentary Short.  With a good shot at several technicals, “The King’s Speech” could walk away with three trophies while “The Social Network” takes the requisite four (Picture, Director, Screenplay, Editing).

“Black Swan” glides in on the movie’s success, although I don’t think the screenplay was particularly fantastic.  It could easily be overlooked in favor of another independent selection.  And “Another Year,” which seems to have fallen from grace since its Cannes premiere, hangs on in Best Original Screenplay because Mike Leigh movies always get nominated here.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

  1. The Social Network 
  2. Toy Story 3
  3. True Grit
  4. Rabbit Hole
  5. Winter’s Bone

If “The Social Network” should be eclipsed by “The King’s Speech,” it should still take Best Adapted Screenplay without a hitch.  Aaron Sorkin’s genius script will probably be the movie’s most appealing offering over the season, and this category seems to seal the deal for the Facebook flick to score at least one Oscar.  Then again, we said the same thing about “Up in the Air,” and then “Precious” came out of nowhere to steal.

“Toy Story 3” is probably the movie most likely to take down Sorkin, if that’s even possible.  The minds at Pixar have been ever so close to a Screenplay win for 15 years; it may be too soon to give them Best Picture, but why not Best Adapted Screenplay?  It’s a step in the right direction towards a time when a movie will not be discriminated against and excluded from the Best Picture race just for being animated, foreign, or a documentary.

The Coen Brothers always get nominated for their writing, and they’ve won twice.  So chances that they get in for “True Grit” are very high.  “Rabbit Hole” slides in because the category seems to be trending towards theatrical adaptations.  If “Doubt” can get in for a word-for-word adaptation, David Lindsey-Abaire’s cinematic reimagining shouldn’t have a problem garnering a nomination.

As for the final slot, I choose indie darling “Winter’s Bone” over “127 Hours” simply because it feels more literary.  Danny Boyle’s movie isn’t very scripted; the magic comes from Franco.

What are your thoughts heading into the season?  Am I right on “The Social Network?”  Am I missing something?


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Shameless Advertisement #21 – December 2010

1 12 2010

Good choice, readers.

For the first time in the history of “Marshall and the Movies,” I can give my readers a pat on the back for choosing an excellent movie as their most anticipated movie of the month.  Thanks to the Houston Cinematic Arts Festival, I got a chance to see “Black Swan,” December’s top pick, about four weeks ago.  In case you didn’t read my overwhelmingly positive review, let me pick out a few quotables:

“At 18, I’m probably a little young to be using the phrase ‘they don’t make ‘em like this anymore,’ but I can’t help but have it come to mind when talking about ‘Black Swan.’  Simply put, Darren Aronofsky’s brilliant directorial artistry has culminated in a stunning masterpiece that is unmatched in vision or ambition by anything that cinema has churned out in a long time.

It’s so bold and daring that to call it wowing simply doesn’t do the experience justice.  Aronofsky weaves together the beauty of ballet with the terror of psychological meltdown with such nimble grace that it leaves you reeling long after leaving the theater.”

So needless to say, YOU NEED TO SEE “BLACK SWAN!”  Every minute until you do is wasted.  As for the other movies people wanted to see in December, “The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader” took second place with two votes.  “True  Grit,” “Rabbit Hole,” and “Another Year” each garnered one vote as well.

We are looking at a great month for movies, so enjoy all the options – there are plenty of movies that didn’t receive a vote that still look fantastic!

As for what you can expect from “Marshall and the Movies” this month, let me lay it all out for you:

Awards, awards, AWARDS!!! I’ve been building up to Oscar Season since March … and now it’s finally here!  To keep you updated on the trends, I will begin a weekly round-up of major trends involving critics groups, guilds, and everything else that plays a part in influencing the Oscar every Friday – starting December 3.  The “Oscar Moment” column focusing on individual movies will die down a little bit now that most movies have been covered, only popping up here and there to cover those that I have missed.

Reviews, reviews, REVIEWS!!! If you thought there were a lot of reviews in November, just brace yourself for December.  In addition to covering the multitude of December release, I’m also going to try to include my reviews of all the other 2010 releases I’ve seen this year.  The “Classics Corner” column will cover an old movie pertinent to December releases, and the “F.I.L.M. of the Week” column will tie into many things, including Christmas and the DVD release of “Inception.”  Also exciting – “Save Yourself!” returns with a warning against a movie you may be tempted to watch this month.

Year-end wrap-up. Just like any critic, I’ll wrap up what I’ve learned about the movies in 2010, culminating in my year-end top 10 list (and most likely an honorable mention list as well).

So look forward to a great month to cap off a great year?  (P.S. – Because I can’t find anyplace else to put this video, you should check this great YouTube video out.)


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REVIEW: Black Swan

27 11 2010

At 18, I’m probably a little young to be using the phrase “they don’t make ’em like this anymore,” but I can’t help but have it come to mind when talking about “Black Swan.”  Simply put, Darren Aronofsky’s brilliant directorial artistry has culminated in a stunning masterpiece that is unmatched in vision or ambition by anything that cinema has churned out in a long time.

It’s so bold and daring that to call it wowing simply doesn’t do the experience justice.  Aronofsky weaves together the beauty of ballet with the terror of psychological meltdown with such nimble grace that it leaves you reeling long after leaving the theater.

There’s really no one else but Aronofsky who could pull off a big, brassy movie like this.  He’s simply the best visual filmmaker out there.  As if his first two movies, “Pi” and “Requiem for a Dream,” weren’t powerful enough, “Black Swan” is Aronofsky in full bloom, showing absolute command of all cinematic vocabulary.  There is no boundary too sacred or stiff for him to toy with, and he doesn’t so much push them as he does eradicate them.  Thus, “Black Swan” isn’t just a victory for Aronofsky and the rest of the crew; it’s a victory for the craft of filmmaking as we know it.

The film is chalked full of imagery, symbolism, and visual motifs that jump off the frame and into your lap.  It’s so clear that Aronofsky is intimately involved in sculpting every frame and every moment down to the colors of the room.  His presence is terrifyingly arresting, and it feels like he himself is reaching out to grab your heart and pump it at a million beats per minute.  The racing begins in the first scene and doesn’t let up even when the credits roll.

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Oscar Moment: November Predictions!

1 11 2010

Folks, it’s time for a new set of predictions.  A lot has changed in the last two months since I issued a set of predictions.  Just a month away from the start of the horse race, I thought now would be a good time to step back and reevaluate.

(NOTE: I’m restructuring the change in position system from 2009.  The symbols stay the same, but listed in parentheses to the right is the previous position.)

Best Picture

  1. The Social Network 
  2. The King’s Speech  (NR)
  3. 127 Hours  (10)
  4. True Grit  (NR)
  5. Toy Story 3  (3)
  6. Inception 
  7. The Fighter  (2)
  8. The Kids Are All Right 
  9. Black Swan  (5)
  10. How Do You Know  (NR)

Dropping off: Another Year, Never Let Me Go, Blue Valentine

I‘m still feeling confident forecasting a win for “The Social Network.”  It has audiences and critics behind it; with enough precursor love, it could be an unstoppable force.  “True Grit” and “The Fighter” remain strong possibilities even unseen, although I’m sensing less excitement for the latter.  “Toy Story 3” hasn’t dropped; two contenders have just risen above it.  Given a push, it could still make a run for the money.  And “How Do You Know” is still unseen, but I’m getting good vibes.  Probably stupid to put it on my list instead of “Another Year,” but I’m going gutsy.

Right now, my biggest comment is that the race feels really stagnant.  It’s too early for the race to boil down to “The Social Network” vs. “The King’s Speech.”  The enthusiasm has kind of died for any movie, although that could easily change with this week’s release of “127 Hours.”  It’s just kind of been a dead zone for Best Picture buzz recently … which is a huge bummer.

Best Director

  1. David Fincher, “The Social Network” 
  2. Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech”  (NR)
  3. Christopher Nolan, “Inception”
  4. Darren Aronofsky, “Black Swan”  (5)
  5. Danny Boyle, “127 Hours”  (NR)

Dropping off: Mike Leigh, David O. Russell

Same story between “Network” and “Speech” with the two battling out for the top spot.  I’m hesitant to say that two of the past three winners in this category could be nominated again this year, so I’ll pick Danny Boyle seeing as his movie is the safer bet at the moment.

I feel like this category will recognize visionaries this year.  This is only a hunch, of course, but I feel like directors such as Nolan are Aronofsky will get their just reward for creating pieces of art that don’t mold to any sort of convention.  Nolan has first priority of the two seeing as he was snubbed in 2008 and his movie will fare better with the Academy.  “Black Swan” is a risky movie and one that doesn’t align very well with Academy tastes.  An Aronofsky nomination means true progress.

Best Actor

  1. James Franco, “127 Hours”  (3)
  2. Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”  (NR)
  3. Jesse Eisenberg, “The Social Network”  (2)
  4. Mark Wahlberg, “The Fighter”  (1)
  5. Ryan Gosling, “Blue Valentine” 

Dropping off: Robert Duvall

I’m sensing the “127 Hours” reward will come in Best Actor for James Franco.  At 32, he’d be among the youngest winners ever, and his status as an elite dramatic actor would be forever cemented.  I see him as being the critics’ circle darling, putting him in prime position from the beginning of the season.  However, there will be stiff competition from Colin Firth, who has the subjective “deserving” card in his hand after losing last year for his performance in “A Single Man.”

Eisenberg drops a slot because the choice youth performance is going to be from Franco, and Wahlberg plummets thanks to the buzz being squarely in the ring of Bale and Leo, his supporting cast.  Nonetheless, I think the preparation he put into this role will pay off with a nomination.  I think Ryan Gosling will be nominated for “Blue Valentine” over, say Robert Duvall for “Get Low” or Jeff Bridges for “True Grit,” because the NC-17 rated domestic drama may be too intense for Best Picture, but the actors will love it and reward it here.

Best Actress

  1. Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”  (2)
  2. Annette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right”  (1)
  3. Nicole Kidman, “Rabbit Hole”  (NR)
  4. Lesley Manville, “Another Year”  (NR)
  5. Michelle Williams, “Blue Valentine”  (4)

Dropping off: Jennifer Lawrence, Julianne Moore

Focus needs to get their act together and figure out how to campaign Bening and Moore.  Amidst the controversy, I think Portman has emerged all the stronger, and she is now my pick to win in the seemingly two-way battle for supremacy.

Nicole Kidman moves onto the list after her performance in “Rabbit Hole” garnered significant buzz, and Manville as well because I think “Another Year” has to have at least one acting nomination.  And for the exact same reason I predicted Ryan Gosling to get a Best Actor nomination, I predict Michelle Williams to get a Best Actress nomination for “Blue Valentine” to reward the movie’s true grit.  However, the tragic romance could go the way of “Revolutionary Road” and leave the leads out in the cold.

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Christian Bale, “The Fighter” 
  2. Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech”  (NR)
  3. Andrew Garfield, “The Social Network” 
  4. Aaron Eckhart, “Rabbit Hole”  (NR)
  5. Sam Rockwell, “Conviction”  (2)

Dropping off: Vincent Cassel, Mark Ruffalo

Could there be anything more boring than the supporting categories this year?  Yawn.

Sight unseen, I still think Bale is the man to beat in this category.  Got any better suggestions?  Rush has won before, yet he will still prove to be a big threat given he lights the movie on fire.  Garfield is young and unknown, but he is incredible in the role.  He could move up to the top if there turns out to be a tidal wave of support for “The Social Network.”

I get a good feeling about Aaron Eckhart for “Rabbit Hole.”  He’s a great actor, and he works alongside Kidman who is a very good bet for a Best Actress nomination. There’s always that movie with a ton of acting nominations, and I get a feeling it could be “Rabbit Hole.”  As for Sam Rockwell, I still feel a nomination is a good possibility, but a win seems pretty tough with the general lack of enthusiasm for “Conviction.”

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Melissa Leo, “The Fighter”  (2)
  2. Miranda Richardson, “Made in Dagenham”  (NR)
  3. Hailee Steinfeld, “True Grit”  (4)
  4. Dianne Wiest, “Rabbit Hole”  (NR)
  5. Helena Bonham Carter, “The King’s Speech”  (NR)

Dropping off: Keira Knightley, Barbara Hershey, Marion Cotillard

Another win for “The Fighter” sight unseen, this time for 2008 Best Actress nominee Melissa Leo.  You got any better ideas?  This category is still wide open with a month left until the critics’ groups for the field for us, and that’s no fun.

Miranda Richardson’s spunky turn in “Made in Dagenham” seems to be getting a lot of buzz, thus it’s in at this point.  “True Grit” hasn’t been seen, but Hailee Steinfeld sure looks impressive from the trailer, so she’s in.  Dianne Weist got the critics talking about her work in “Rabbit Hole,” and she’s won twice before, so she’s in.  Helena Bonham Carter is in a strong Best Picture contender, so she’s in.  See how flimsy my logic is?  No one has a clue what to expect in this race.

I lied when I said there would be screenplays in this set of predictions.  For the wins, I’d say “The King’s Speech” and “The Social Network” for original and adapted, respectively.

So, how do you feel?  What Oscar nominations do YOU foresee?


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“Black Swan” Poll Results

21 10 2010

Everyone’s talking about “Black Swan” for Best Picture in the blogosphere.  Their opinion, which I totally agree with, is that a nomination for Darren Aronofsky’s latest feature would be the first true step forward for the Academy in years.  They have nominated movies like “Avatar” and “The Blind Side” and “District 9” before; out of the ordinary is not the same as making full progression.

But alas, when I published my two cents on “Black Swan” to kick off Oscar Moment Week in September, I focused more on the movie’s surest bet for a nomination, Natalie Portman.  She’s all but a lock to be nominated.  The big question is can 29-year-old Portman win?

The results were definitive.  2/3 of voters said they expected Portman to win Best Actress, while the other third remained skeptical.  I love Natalie Portman and can’t wait to see this movie; sight unseen, she is who I want to win.


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Categories : Marshall and the Movies, Polls

Random Factoid #435

6 10 2010

I’m in love with Natalie Portman and I don’t care who knows it!

She’s seriously one of the most awesome people working in Hollywood.  She’s great at being funny and at being serious, she seems incredibly down-to-earth, and she has her act together.

Add consultant to that list of things she does well.  According to Aaron Sorkin, “Natalie Portman got in touch with me when she heard that I was doing this to say, ‘Listen…come over for dinner and I’ll tell you some stories,’ I would’ve come over for dinner under any circumstances. But that was really helpful.”  Since she was at Harvard when Facebook was founded, her insights were very valuable.  I’m not sure if she led Sorkin to the very dark, gloomy feeling that the school had, though.

What was her thanks?  Getting mentioned cleverly in one of the movie’s lines.  I totally caught it, no big deal.  For those of you who didn’t, here’s the quote.

“[Zuckerberg] is the biggest thing on a campus that included nineteen Nobel Laureates, fifteen Pulitzer Prize winners, two future Olympians, and a movie star.”

“Who’s the movie star?”

So thanks, Natalie.  You rock.  I rarely pick up on little easter eggs (and for another one, click here) like that, but I did thanks to you.  Anybody else catch this?  I felt pretty proud of myself since the only easter eggs I ever catch are the really obvious self-referential ones in Pixar movies.


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Oscar Moment: “Black Swan”

20 09 2010

The Toronto Film Festival closed yesterday, and Oscars season 2010 has kicked off now as a result.  To commemorate this commencement, I am dedicating the next five days solely to theorizing about the five major contenders emerging from the festivals held in Venice, Toronto, and Telluride.

While I could have (and probably should have) begun with the big winners, “Somewhere” from Venice and “The King’s Speech” from Toronto, I’m going to start by talking about the movie that appeals to me the most, “Black Swan.”  I’m a huge fan of director Darren Aronofsky, and the cast and plot are both incredible.

The whole premise of a movie centered around the price of art is something that connects personally with me as I dedicate most of my free time currently to theater and music.  “Black Swan” stars Natalie Portman as an ambitious New York ballerina, compelled to keep going by the hopes that her director (Vincent Cassel) will feature her more.  But along comes a strong and beautiful rival (Mila Kunis) who wins him over with her talent and starts shifting the spotlight her way.  Eventually the envy and rage begins to consume Portman’s Lily, and her mental sanity begins to collapse.

The movie’s trailer is absolutely terrifying, but it drew me in with this incredible force.  Yes, it is scary, but it is also elegant and gorgeous.  The cinematography, the choreography, the score, the cast – it’s a mad rush of beauty emerging from the screen under the magnificent direction of Aronofsky.

Opinion on the movie emerging from the festival is incredibly polarized, with the prevailing side being those in favor.  Here’s Peter DeBruge of Variety weighing in:

“A wicked, sexy and ultimately devastating study of a young dancer’s all-consuming ambition, ‘Black Swan’ serves as a fascinating complement to Darren Arononfsky’s ‘The Wrestler,’ trading the grungy world of a broken-down fighter for the more upscale but no less brutal sphere of professional ballet.”

Kirk Honeycutt of The Hollywood Reporter, while seeing it through a somewhat different light, still gives it praise:

“The movie is so damn out-there in every way that you can’t help admiring Aronofsky for daring to be so very, very absurd. ‘Swan’ is an instant guilty pleasure, a gorgeously shot, visually complex film whose badness is what’s so good about it.”

On the slightly less professional side, blogger Kris Tapley of In Contention had this to say about the movie and its chances:

“The film is the perfect marriage of Aronofsky’s past work, containing all of the paranoia of ‘Pi,’ the identity concerns of ‘Requiem for a Dream,’ the sense of inevitability apparent in ‘The Fountain,’ and the professional obsession of ‘The Wrestler.’ Portman gives her best performance to date and could well find her way to an Oscar nomination, while Matthew Libatique’s splendid photography also deserves recognition. It may play too dark to AMPAS types, but I imagine many members will at the very least grasp a powerful theme that relates very much to filmmakers as it does as to painters, musicians and, well, ballerinas.”

It’s not just a hit with the critic; audiences are fawning over this rabidly.  At the Venice festival premiere, it received a five-minute standing ovation, and it remained an incredibly buzzed piece the entire festival.  And according to a Los Angeles Times report on the screening in Toronto, “During the screening, moments of unexpected scares sent ripples of gasps and nervous laughter through the crowd. Festival screenings can feel a little cold, and thus less communal, than the commercial variety. That wasn’t a problem here.”

I think the movie has the goods to be a Best Picture candidate – the subject matter may just be a little too intense for them.  Mental psychodrama, as one person describe the movie, just isn’t up their alley.  But if the public gets behind it and critical response is still great, it could have a chance.

If and only if it lands a Best Picture nomination, Aronofsky could net his first Best Director nomination.  Back in 2008 when there were only five Best Picture nominees, his name was constantly thrown around as a replacement for Ron Howard in the directorial race.  He’s very respected and honoring him for “Black Swan” makes more sense that nominating him for “The Wrestler” as this is the kind of movie that he is most proficient at making.  Perhaps a screenplay nomination will also follow, but I’d say that’s probably the least likely of the bunch.

But the movie’s support will most likely be expressed in the acting categories, where it has four strong contenders in Natalie Portman, Vincent Cassel, Mila Kunis, and Barbara Hershey.

Portman is the film’s shining star.  She’s in every scene and apparently has total command of the screen, challenging her emotional and physical limits constantly.  The Academy has noted her once before for her complex and rough role as Alice in “Closer” back in 2004, but her acting has matured much since then.  This is a very demanding performance for Portman in a very demanding movie.  Even those who oppose the movie will still have good things to say about her work.

At 30, her youth is an asset as she is now old enough to not be written off as “too young.”  In fact, since 1997, only two actresses older than 35 have won Best Actress, both of which came in the past four years.  So a win for Portman keeps the trend going.  She faces stiff competition this year; many are calling it the strongest leading actress field in years.  Her stiffest competition may come from Annette Bening, who at 52 won raves for “The Kids Are All Right” over the summer.  With three nominations to her name, Bening will be a force to reckon with.  Awards Daily proposed today that the race may be down to the two of them:

Portman’s performance is said to be her best yet – brilliant, harsh, challenging.  If only she was also playing a prostitute or a drug addict – she’d been the winner.  But, from what I gather, her character is not likable.  Likability, or at least great sympathy is key to a win.  Can she make it on sheer ability?  Of course.  Liking her character, really really liking her character helps a wee bit more.  I haven’t yet seen the film so I can’t say for sure.

Portman has a sex scene.  I don’t think this is necessarily a turn-off.  Best Actress winners often have on screen nudity or sex scenes — The Reader, Monster’s Ball, etc.  But usually it’s with a man.  Still, since when have men objected to sex between women?  Bening is probably way ahead in terms of likability.    She too has a sex scene to contend with.

This time last year, I boiled the race down to Carey Mulligan vs. Meryl Streep, the film festival breakout and up-and-comer pitted against the awards mainstay.  While Bening is know Meryl Streep and Portman is hardly unknown, the race is very similar.  Of course last year, Sandra Bullock came out of nowhere to take it all.  I think simplifying a race down to two people now is misguided, although I will say that they are the two strongest candidates at the moment.  A nomination of Portman is almost certain; a snub would mean that the Academy really needs to grow up and learn how to handle tough subject matter.

The other three actors are all wild cards.  Cassel could do well in awards season; his performance was voted second-best in the supporting category from INDIEwire’s informal critical polling.  He’s pretty unknown stateside, which could propel him higher or doom him.  Kunis also has potential, but I get the feeling that she will be seen more as an object of lust than an actress.  Her past movie choices won’t do her much good either.

Outside of Portman, the best shot “Black Swan” may have at another nomination would be through Barbara Hershey, who plays Lily’s aggressive mother, a former ballerina herself.  At 62, the movie could prove to be a great swan song for her (pun fully intended).  Hershey hasn’t been in much since her 1996 Best Supporting Actress nomination, practically nothing in the past decade.  But a welcome return to grace the screen with her presence could land her another nomination.

It’s important for “Black Swan” to keep the massive buzz and allure it gained over the past few weeks in check so that upon its release in December, the can of worms will be opened anew.  But until then we wait.  And hope the movie is as good as we anticipate.

BEST BETS FOR NOMINATIONS: Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress (Hershey), Best Cinematography, Best Original Score

OTHER POSSIBLE NOMINATIONS: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress (Kunis), Best Film Editing


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Categories : 2010 - Oscar Moment, Oscar Moment

F.I.L.M. of the Week (June 18, 2010)

18 06 2010

Love.  Sex.  Desire.  Lust.  Need.

These are words we all associate together, right?  Usually one affects the other or one leads to the other.  But if you are willing to challenge your views on the connectivity of these emotions, then you will love my pick for “F.I.L.M. of the Week,” Mike Nichols’ “Closer.”  If the director alone isn’t enough to make you see this movie, just look at the poster and see all the stars.  Each and every one of them gives a fantastic performance, but one in particular really deserved an Academy Award.

The movie follows four people in London over the course of several years, particularly noting their struggles and their romances.  Alice (Natalie Portman) is an American trying to get away from stripping for a living who falls for Dan (Jude Law) after he helps her recover from getting hit by a taxi.  But Dan also has feelings for Anna (Julia Roberts), a photographer taking his picture for the book he has written many years after meeting Alice.  When she kindly refuses to be with him, Dan plays a mean-spirited practical joke on her and brings Larry (Clive Owen), a dermatologist, into the mix.  As the story unfolds, the four mix and clash in unexpected ways, all seeking some sort of truth through love.

Part of what makes “Closer” so fascinating is the plot and the dialogue.  Patrick Marber adapts his own Tony Award-nominated play for the movie, and he stays relatively close to the spirit of the stage.  The movie has a very stripped-down, bare essentials minimalism that makes us feel like we are watching actual lives unfold.  Marber has thematic depth in his screenplay and probes issues that usually only playwrights dare to do.  His dialogue is raw and unsparing, a perfect complement to the story.

However, what really makes “Closer” such an intensely satisfying watch are the actors.  Julia Roberts is scary good at being quiet and unassuming, but when that layer fades away, she is just plain scary.  Jude Law probably has the most screen time, and he makes the most of it with his compelling work.  Clive Owen is the most brutal of the bunch, rough and willing to do whatever it takes to get what he wants.  Owen plays the role with such a ferocious intensity that we never doubt his character for a second.

But the best performance of all is delivered by Natalie Portman.  It’s so much more mature than her 23 years (at the time of the release).  Alice is completely realized thanks to Portman, who really gets inside her enigmatic character to shocking success.  Whether it is anguished, upset, wanting, or hurting, Portman nails the emotion.  The role is a dramatic change of pace from her usual “good girl,” and it certainly is strange as she becomes completely absorbed in being mysterious and seductive.  She never lets us doubt it, though, as she keeps us astonished and spellbound by Alice and her quest for love.


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Categories : F.I.L.M. of the Week, Movie Reviews

REVIEW: Brothers

28 03 2010

When it comes to “Brothers,” I’m not sure what I should be reviewing: the movie or the trailer.

If you managed to escape Lionsgate’s advertising push, good for you.  Don’t watch the trailer because you can still be wowed by this movie.

But if you are among the vast majority that watched the trailer, you are going to find yourself deeply unsatisfied watching “Brothers.”  In essence, it’s an exercise in frustration to watch.  You will probably find yourself like me, wondering why I spent an hour and 45 minutes watching a full-length movie when I had already seen the condensed, two and a half minute version.

I feel like I would have loved this movie had it not been for the money-grubbing executives who feel the need to put all of a movie’s firepower into the trailer in order to put an audience in the theater.  But unfortunately, all of the intensity that “Brothers” can deliver is revealed in the trailer, serving to satisfy only those who visit YouTube or go to see some other movie.

As you can tell by the trailer, there really is some good stuff here.  The wow factor comes mainly from the three marquee actors, all of whom deliver powerful performances.  Tobey Maguire, who earned a Golden Globe nomination for his work, is haunting, particularly after he returns home from captivity in Afghanistan.  Natalie Portman as the grief-stricken wife is solid as usual, and Jake Gyllenhaal helps to build some very taut tension with his brother and disapproving father.

In fact, I almost feel like I should be giving two separate grades for “Brothers.”  The trailer gets an A, but to the movie, I must give a … C+ /


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F.I.L.M. of the Week (February 19, 2010)

19 02 2010

This week’s “F.I.L.M.” is “Garden State.”  Written and directed by Zach Braff, the star of TV’s “Scrubs,” the debut is a wonderfully delightful indie comedy.  It’s filled with its own set of quirks that we come to associate with the genre, but the movie is equally remarkable for its contrastingly somber side.

“Garden State” is constructed upon a beautifully ironic premise.  Failed actor Andrew Largeman (Braff) comes home to New Jersey to attend his mother’s funeral.  At the same time, Andrew decides that it is time to go off the anti-depressants that he has been taking since his troubled teenage years.  These medications have made him feel numb and stoic to life passing by.

But as he wanes off the meds, Andrew begins to open his eyes to all the great things happening around him.  He falls for compulsive liar Sam (Natalie Portman), a fiery chick with a bubbling personality.  He begins to smile again.  He confronts the issues which have forced him into depression.  But overall, “Garden State” is such a remarkable movie because it is a movie about rediscovering the joy of living.

For an enriched viewing experience, I recommend having watched Mike Nichols’ “The Graduate” before seeing this.  Not only will you have seen two great movies, but it will give you great insight into Zach Braff’s influences.  Someone told me that watching modern comedy without having seen “The Graduate” is akin to trying to see in fog.  Now that I have seen it, I agree.

But I digress.  Watch “Garden State” – and listen, too, because it’s got a great soundtrack (which seems to be another hallmark of this genre).


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Categories : F.I.L.M. of the Week, Movie Reviews

What To Look Forward To In … December 2009

14 11 2009

What is in my mind the finest month for the movies is almost here!  Let Marshall guide you through the best and steer you away from the worst, but most of all enjoy!  The studios have been holding back their best movies all year to dump them all here, where they can get serious awards consideration.

December 4

A major Oscars wild-card is “Brothers.”  No one really knows what to make of it.  If the movie hits big, it could completely change the game.  But it could just fly under the radar like most expect it to now.  However, the trailer makes it look as if it the movie could be absolutely mind-blowing.  Directed by Jim Sheridan, who has received six Academy Award nominations, “Brothers” follows Grace Cahill (Natalie Portman) as she and her daughters deal with the loss of her husband, Sam (Tobey Maguire), in war.  Sam’s brother, Tommy (Jake Gyllenhaal) comes to live with Grace to lend a helping hand.  But romantic sparks fly between the two at precisely the wrong time: the discovery that Sam is alive and coming home.  With the two brothers both tugging Grace’s heart for their share, a different type of sparks fly.

You have heard me say plenty about “Up in the Air.”  If you haven’t read my Oscar Moment on the movie or heard my bliss at the release of the trailer, let me give you one more chance to hope on the bandwagon.

But the movies don’t stop there.  “Armored,” an action-drama that is tooting its own moral horn, starring Matt Dillon and Laurence Fishburne.  “Everybody’s Fine” appears to be a holiday movie, so that might be worth checking out if you’re in the spirit.  The movie, a remake of a 1990 Italian film by the same name, stars Robert DeNiro as a widower who reconnects with his estrange children.  And “Transylmania” looks to cash in on the vampire craze sweeping the nation by satirizing it, but I doubt it will be financially viable because it is being released by a no-name studio and without any big names.

December 11

The highlight of the weekend for many will be “The Princess and the Frog,” Disney’s return to the traditional animation by hand musical.  The movie looks to capitalize on what we know and love Disney musicals for, adding some catchy tunes to a fairy tale we have known since childhood.  Anika Noni Rose, best known for her role as Lorrell in the film adaptation of “Dreamgirls,” lends her talented voice to the princess Tiana.  As a huge fan of “Dreamgirls” during the winter of 2006, I couldn’t think of someone better equipped to handle the sweet, soft Disney music (which isn’t designed for belters like Beyoncé or Jennifer Hudson).  That being said, the music won’t sound like anything you’ve ever heard from a Disney fairy tale.  It is being scored by Randy Newman, not Alan Menken (“Beauty and the Beast,” etc.), and will have a jazzy feel much like its setting, New Orleans.

This week also boasts the opening of three major Oscar players. Two have been featured in Oscar Moments, “Invictus” and “A Single Man.” The former opens nationwide this Friday, the latter only in limited release. I’ll repost the trailers below because they are worth watching. But read the Oscar Moment if you want to know more about the movies.

According to the people that matter, “The Lovely Bones” has all the pieces to make a great movie. But for summer reading two years ago, I read the source material, Alice Sebold’s acclaimed novel. I found it dreadfully melodramatic and very depressing without any sort of emotional payoff to reward the reader for making it through. But maybe Hollywood will mess up the novel in a good way. If any movie could, it would be this one. With a director like Peter Jackson and a cast including Saiorse Ronan (“Atonement”), Mark Wahlberg, Rachel Weisz, Stanley Tucci, and Susan Sarandon, it could very well happen.  It opens in limited release on this date and slowly expands until its nationwide release on Martin Luther King Day weekend in 2010.

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Categories : What To Look Forward To

What to Look Forward to In … October 2009

29 08 2009

We give the movie industry late August and all of September to recover from the busy summer season, but in October, it starts to kick it into gear again.  Unfortunately, my most anticipated movie in October, Martin Scorsese’s “Shutter Island,” was pushed back to February.  But the month still puts forth several great movies for all tastes.

October 2

This week, I can promise you that I will be throwing my money not at a new release, but at the re-release of two staples of my childhood.  “Toy Story” and “Toy Story 2” will hit theaters again for a few weeks.  1 ticket.  2 movies. 3-D.  Need I say more?

The week also gives us “The Invention of Lying,” which could be a sleeper comedy hit. The movie stars Ricky Gervais, who was the lead of the British version of “The Office.” Around this time last year, he starred in “Ghost Town,” a comedy with a heart that you need to go rent now, that was dismissed by audiences. I have high hopes for his latest, in which he plays a man who tells the world’s first lie on an alternate Earth. He continues to wield the power to suit his own selfish needs. The movie also features Jennifer Garner, Rob Lowe, and the always funny Tina Fey.

And not to mention, the week delivers Drew Barrymore’s directorial debut, “Whip It.” The movie stars the irresistible Ellen Page (“Juno”) as Bliss, a teenager weary of the beauty pageants that she is forced into by her parents. One day, she discovers the world of roller derby and she finds the happiness that she has been so desperately seeking. The movie boasts a hilarious supporting cast including Kristen Wiig (“SNL”), Oscar-winner Marcia Gay Harden, and Barrymore herself.

And it just keeps getting better.  The Coen Brothers (“No Country for Old Men”) are back with their latest feature, “A Serious Man;” they also wrote the original screenplay.  The movie seems to be a big risk.  It features no marquee names other than the Coens themselves. The trailer is cryptic, giving no indication of what to expect from the movie. I don’t mind an aura of mystique, but this is an aura of confusion. The movie is being marketed as a dark comedy, and I pray that it is the polar opposite of the Coens’ last foray into the genre, “Burn After Reading,” which I didn’t find funny at all. The movie starts in limited release and then will slowly expand from New York and Los Angeles.

The other major release of the week is “Zombieland,” a horror-comedy with Woody Harrelson.

October 9

The only exciting movie hitting theaters across the country this weekend is “Couples Retreat.”  A comedy centered around four couples at a luxurious tropical resort that is revealed to be a marriage therapy clinic, it appears to provide something for everyone.  It has pretty women (Malin Akerman, Kristen Bell, Kristin Davis) AND funny guys (Jason Bateman, Vince Vaughn, Jon Favreau).  The movie is the directorial debut of Ralph Billingsley, best known for playing Ralphie in “A Christmas Story,” and the screenplay is written by Vaughn and Favreau.  Hopefully it can provide some good laughs in a season usually replete of hilarious comedies.

Opening in limited release is “An Education,” a movie that has been garnering massive Oscar buzz for months now.  Most of it has centered on the breakout performance of lead actress Carey Mulligan.  In the movie, she stars as Jenny, a 17-year-old in 1960s England who is set on going to Oxford.  However, an older gentleman (Peter Sarsgaard) comes along and sweeps her off of her feet, introducing her to a lifestyle that she immediately loves.  But reality bites, and Jenny is left at a crucial crossroads.  The movie has also generated buzz around supporting actors Alfred Molina and Rosamund Pike (the red-haired villain of “Die Another Day”).  Raves are also flying in for the screenplay, written by author Nick Hornby, writer of “About a Boy” and “Fever Pitch.”  And with the 10 nominees for Best Picture at this year’s Oscars, many people say it has a good chance of claiming one of the ten.

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